This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
ADP Misses Again, Drops YoY For 7th Month In A Row
Following its disapppointing tumble in July (having missed expectations for 6 of the last 7 months), August ADP printed another miss at 190k against expectations of a 200k rise with last month revised lower. As the energy sectyoir continues to bleed jobs at a rate of 10k per month, ADP's Zandi notes that manufacturing jobs growth is all auto-related (which is extremely worryinmg given the size of inventories). Job groiwth was largely driven by small businesses (85k) as opposed to large business (40k) with Service-producing goods drastically outpacing manufacturing job growth (173k to 17k). Perhaps most notably, ADP jobs data has dropped YoY for the last months
Not exactly escape velocity...
But the year over year data is ugly...
Total Employment
Historical Trend
Change By Selected Industry
The full breakdown:
The breakdown by job type:
- Goods-producing employment rose by 17,000 jobs in August, more than double the 7,000 gained in July. The construction industry added 17,000 jobs in August, up from 15,000 last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 7,000 jobs in August, after gaining only 1,000 in July.
- Service-providing employment rose by 173,000 jobs in August, up slightly from 170,000 in July. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 29,000 jobs in August, up 3,000 from July. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 28,000, down from 34,000 the previous month. The 13,000 new jobs added in financial activities was a gain from last month’s 10,000.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,
“Recent global financial market turmoil has not slowed the U.S. job market, at least not yet. Job growth remains strong and broad-based, except in the energy industry, which continues to shed jobs. Large companies also remain more cautious in their hiring than smaller ones.”
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2015/August/NER/images/infographic/ma..." width="598" />Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 9385 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Monthly Misses are part of a robust and dynamic economy....
Yeah.. Must be all the wealth being created for everybody so they don't need to work anymore.
Auto sales inventory vs. auto manufacturing employment:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1K83
Tell FRED to go fuck himself.
LOL! FRED is one of the few useful things that the Fed does. Great source of data.
This must be an honest mistake, probably just a junior analyst crunching numbers.... Preezy sez that we are a job creation machine and .gov shows unemployment in the low 5's..... Somebody from the public sector better call ADP and get this corrected stat!!!
Preezy also saz he's going to rename some mountain after a GMC lusury SUV instead of leaving it named after some dead white guy. After an SUV! While campaigning against global warming!
I hope the next preezy renames it, so all my atlases will be accurate once again. I also hope the next preezy names a toxic waste site after the current preezy.
"Not the data I am looking at".
Janet Yellen
So this must be the time to go all in with stocks, right?
zandi is full of crap. that may actually be the one constant in the universe.
Cramer and Gartman are constantly wrong, so there are three constants.
7
Strongly Bullish....
soup bowls...
Just as much as the bull Hunter Biden?
Strongly Bullishit is.
I am going to find a bar this morning. Gotta help the employment numbers and get rid of this hangover.
The misses' monthly has always been a part of a robust and dynamic economy in the hookers and blow sector of the gdp.
We're at full retard, in certain sub-sectors within manufacturing in the U.S.
The same thing happened in late '07 and into '08. You had the manufacturing co's which were shitting bricks or at fhe very least reducing headcount, then you had the "everything is fine", retards (I worked for a large co at the time, they were in retard mode right into July '08).
Even here locally shit is out of whack in manufacturing, auto-related appears to be robust (!), and some aerospace is strong. One huge corporate entity, and one good-sized contract shop, are even advertising on the radio for help.
What. The. Fuck.
I give it a month or two.
Replying to you so I can look like i'm doing something at one of those everything is fine places. My job is to process new orders and I haven't done anything at all for a few weeks.
Probably a goldilocks number.... Not bad enough to kill a hike, not good enough to assure one, will leave the Algos guessing.
155 K for NFP, and that is likely on the high side....
So far we are adding 39k fewer jobs per month than we did last year....Gotta be bullish!
How fortunate the US is to have a never-ceasing stream of willing workers flowing into the country from Mexico to fill all those jobs that Americans won't do.
I let my employees go. All nice people. I had to. Government is so oppressive, I just can't do it anymore. All my costs of doing business constantly rises, mostly due to government mandates and regulations. Insurance is becoming a nightmare. They want to exclude everything. Every year the policy gets thicker. I have no ambition any more to grow or expand my business. I just plan now to run in neutral. If the data sucks, the gov should understand that they create the conditions that produce the lousy data.
Let us also recall that the ADP number is often wrong on the high side.
I wouldn't be surprised at a BLS first-print number of or below 150k.
And as we can see in the reported breakdown, the jobs being "created" are in some "service" area or another.
I'll reiterate what so many of you already know: we aren't getting better, nor will we until it is smashed into small bits, and completely reengineered to be much, much simpler, and more old-schooled. This is going to happen one way or another. It HAS to. Of that, I am certain.
What I'm most concerned about is another rehash of what we have today, post-crash. THIS is what keeps happening, and, that too, has to stop.
We must demand better, and most importantly, we MUST eliminate the current players, racketeers, and corporate honchos who continually restart the old game that always leads us down the tubes. We don't have any more at-bats folks...
It makes no sense to keep the old game going, and it makes no sense to crash, suffer, and regroup, only to END UP with the same warped system.
That previous rehashes seem to work for fewer and fewer of us should be a clear indication of just how deleterious such repeats are.
We can start today by calling out the big shots in the c-suites, and by replacing the same old corporate mentality with brand-new, much more honorable paradigms. We MUST hold those who CAUSED this mess (outsourcing) FULLY accountable, so that such short-termed, extremely-damaging behavior, is NEVER repeated, no matter what shortsighted logic or promise of 'greater prosperity' is used or bandied about. It didn't work out well because it never could've worked out well. There were a few plainly stating this back when it all started (1980's), just not enough.
We're going to have to do today (support the truth and those people) what we should've done then. Stop buying the lie of jobs offshoring and trade agreements. Stop buying the claims of insufficient domestic qualitfied labor, and the concommitant need for the H1B bullshit. These lies lead to policies that only work for the corporation and the big shot--not the native worker.
How could they?
I mean, think about it. We have (or had) the world's finest higher educational system, such that, multitudes from around the world came here to study...and yet...WE don't produce enough of our OWN educated labor to meet our OWN technical needs??
And WE put up with THAT?
These same SOB's expect YOU to be a customer...but YOU'RE NOT qualified to be a WORKER...WITH the SAME education as an...insourced worker?
And WE ACCEPTED THAT?
This is the bullshit (and so much more like it) we've been fed...and yet...we don't raid the c-suites of these same corporate hacks to demand even a cursory explananation for this?
No wonder we're falling on our national faces...
Why should any of us be surprised?
Where have WE been?
We were told; we just didn't listen.
If we're gonna hurt...at least let it lead us somewhere better. We can't do that with the same mindsets in the same institutional structures. Both have to go.
m
It all comes down to maximizing profit. We need to give up on profit. If business was required to operate at a loss none of this would be happening.
Down with priofits.
Tyler cracks me up. YoY is "ugly. Private sector is adding jobs at about 100K over labor force.
Marketwatch take on it: Private sector adds 190,000 jobs in ‘rock solid’ August ADP report
Everything is down, but order cancelations
Goods-producing employment rose by 17,000 jobs in August, more than double the 7,000 gained in July. The construction industry added 17,000 jobs in August, up from 15,000 last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 7,000 jobs in August, after gaining only 1,000 in July.
Lets see 17,000 + 7,000 = 24,000 - so where is that number in the goods producing sector?
Who ever did the numbers has a problem with arithmetic.