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Guest Post: Trump Can Win The GOP Nomination
Submitted by Bruce Bartlett via The Fiscal Times,
To save myself from answering this question repeatedly, these are the thoughts I have had about Trump since he became a presidential candidate, which were partly expressed in a Politico article over a month ago.
First of all, I think his support is firm and shows no sign of diminishing. He has already weathered storms such as his criticism of John McCain that would have doomed any other candidate. Anyone who thinks he is the current version of Cain, Bachmann, Santorum or other nutcase that briefly led the GOP field in 2012 is dead wrong.
Keep in mind also that in primary elections, one doesn’t need majority support to win in a field with multiple candidates. And intensity of support is often more important than the percentage. Support for the designated favorite of party insiders is often exaggerated in polls and I think Trump’s supporters are unusually motivated.
Second, Trump’s positions on the issues are largely irrelevant to his success. None of his supporters care whether a wall across Mexico is remotely feasible or that he regularly flip-flops on the issues. What he is selling is attitude and a certain fascistic form of leadership. He will get things done, his supporters believe. And it’s less important what he will do than that he will do something.
Ironically, Republicans brought this on themselves in two ways. To begin with, they grossly oversold what they could do just with control of Congress. The Republican base really seems to have simply forgotten about the presidential veto or the Senate filibuster. They seem to have thought all they had to do was pass bills with a simple majority and they would magically become law. How else to explain voting over and over and over again to repeal Obamacare. It makes no sense unless my assumption is correct.
Additionally, Republicans are suffering from the gridlock that they themselves caused. We all know that nature abhors a vacuum, but I think it abhors gridlock as well. That has always been the appeal of fascism and it would be very foolish to believe that Americans are immune from its attractive qualities of getting things done that need to get done. And let us not forget that Trump is talking about genuine problems even if his solutions are simplistic or even wrongheaded.
My third point in Trump’s favor is his willingness to fund his own campaign and ability to run such a campaign on the cheap. By the latter, I mean that he started his campaign with close to 100% name ID and he has the amazing ability to get massive free media exposure any time he wants it. The mainstream media seem powerless to ignore the newsworthiness of anything he says about anything at any time in any place. In lieu of a traditional campaign staff, all Trump needs are the PR people he has long employed, a scheduler and a pilot for his plane.
Related to this, I would note that Trump has a very powerful ally in the form of talk radio. Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin have been especially strong in their support for Trump, in part because Trump’s base and theirs are one and the same. It is extremely valuable to any candidate to have such a megaphone at his disposal, whipping up support, attacking his enemies, explaining away his mistakes etc. This also explains why Trump can treat Fox News with the disdain it deserves. It helped create the Trump monster, thinking he could be controlled, and discovered to its horror than he cannot.
Fourth, as a consequence, the traditional means of controlling an out-of-control candidate are not available to the GOP leadership. They cannot deny him media exposure or money or organizational support because he doesn’t need them. Moreover, the anointed GOP nominee, Jeb Bush, has turned out to be a remarkably poor politician. His ineptness makes me wonder how he ever got elected dog catcher. And the rest of the GOP field lacks the name ID or support to catch up. But, importantly, because several have deep pocketed supporters, they too can afford to stay in the race indefinitely, keeping the field divided to Trump’s advantage..
This means it is very unlikely that the stop-Trump forces can coalesce around one candidate. The field will remain divided until the end, meaning that Trump needs no more support than he has now to win the nomination. As I have said repeatedly, the key to understanding Trump is not the ceiling on his support, but the floor, which appears higher than the ceiling of all the other candidates.
Lastly, I think many Republicans simply delude themselves that Trump is not a serious candidate who cannot, for some reason, get the nomination. I say, don’t underestimate his ego, which we know is and always has been enormous. If he can win the GOP nomination, why shouldn’t he go for it? I would also point to the example of Wendell Willkie, a very Trump-like candidate who won the GOP nomination in 1940. Then as now, he took advantage of the fact that as the anti-government party, Republicans are unusually attracted to non-politicians.
I am not yet ready to predict that Trump will be the GOP nominee, but I am disinclined to bet against him. I honestly don’t see how any of his current opponents can beat him. I think his odds of winning the nomination are better than even. Whether he can win the general election is another question that I will discuss at a later date.
Final note - the Democrats’ growing disarray plays into Trump’s hands because it reduces the importance of electability as a prime requirement for the GOP nominee.
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Really.., and you are?
Who am I? I am a goyim who knows.
SO many moron's here tonight. This must be Politico follower's night...
Trump will ROCK AMERICA, and begin to reel in the rest of the world's financials, guarranteed!
GO TRUMP!
Trump plays the messianic leader card as I don't remember ever seeing in US politics. That might sound just about nice with many a-folks here. I'd suggest you hit the books on that (and how it worked out in other places and times) before you grin though...
assume that trump will not win the repub nomination
given his ego, he will run as independent or begin a "trump' party thereafter
this strategy will divide the republican votes assuring that the democrat candidate wins a plurarlity
mission accomplished?
Do any of you really believe that there is going to be an election?
Oh, baloney!
The Republican establishment oligarchy (as well as the Hillary oligarchy) both had their plans in place to win the election by carpet bombing the electorate with BILLIONS of dollars of media, consultants, and "walking around money".
The party plutocrats would call the shots.
Then along comes an independently wealthy candidate, who has spent his professional career LISTENING to people and understanding what THEY want to achieve, and offers them mutually advantageous propositions. (It's called, "doing business".)
The establishment plutocrats are S-O-O-O-O angry that they call the independent candidate ugly names, like . . . fascist.
FOURTH -- what pompous arrogant @ss in Washington DC (both parties) forgot that they are supposed to at least pretend to represent the people? I am fed up with arrogant and corrupt DNC and RNC bureaucrats (both) deciding what candidates they want to have run, and who they want to have win. Then we are supposed to go to the polls in November 2016 and try choose the lesser of two idiots?
Who decided Hilary was the heir to the throne? Who decided Jeb would run against her? There was no vote, no opinion poll, not even a half-wit survey. The pompous @sses in Washington decided they wanted Hilary vs Jeb in 2016, and to hell with what everyone else thinks.
If this FT writer didn't have his head up his own rear end, he would see the obvious. He is too busy kissing up to his editor to actually do any journalism. Try asking the opinions of someone outside the newsroom loser.
Both Trump and Sanders are forcing the corrupt few in DC and the media to talk about subjects they want to keep buried. That is how they are "winning", and also why the corrupt witch and former FL Governor (unseated by a strip club owner) are losing.
PS -- If ObamaCare were any good, Congress would be on it. Obama would be on it. All nine members of the Geriatric Court would be on it. But 30% annual premium increases and 100% deductable increases aren't good enough for the corrupt class in Washington
The pompous @sses in Washington decided . . .
It's very likely the real pompous asses that decide who gets selected to become president in the USA don't live in the US and are not even US citizens. It is also likely 99.99% of the people in the USA (and the world) have no idea what their names are (including myself). These clowns behind the scenes who have the real power in the world are super secretive and go out of their way to avoid public scrutiny - to the point where they don't even want their names to become public knowledge.
Quit thinking Trump if going to save your ass, the asshole you want to bring into pwer will bring will bring your own doom...
Guest Post: Trump Can Win The GOP Nomination
OK, I'll bite ... ... and?
http://www.270towin.com/2016-countdown-clock/
431 DAYS to the US election, i.e.
365 days + 66 days = 431 days
So why the fuck would anyone who is mildly sane, care about that?
Mr. Elelment:
We weren't actually talking to YOU.
Go back to sleep.
We were talking to those people who have the lucidity, presence of mind, and survival insincts to worry about the termites eating the lifeboat.
You need to do a bit of catching up. Here's an exercise;
Not much is it? Bit negative you feel? If you had to pay back just $1 trillion with such ave surpluses, how long would it take?
Could you maintain continuous surpluses or sufficient public asset salses, or GDP growth, without adding to NET debt at all), to ever repay just the first $1 Trill?
How many trillion need to be 'paid back'? And how much is the servicing of those trillions every year? Is your average surplus level since 1913 to 2015, sufficient to service the debt you already have, and not create more?
Clearly, no.
So let me get this straight then, you come in here talking down to people who have checked the numbers and mouth to them you useless moron utter horseshit about - and I quote you:
Clearly that would not include you, would it? (you've spelt 'instincts' wrong too). Given you are an ignoramus on the most fundamental of measures needed in solution forming and policy; namely, of understanding the problem?
So what then?
You feel you can pedal some flim-flam about termites and boats? And pretend your a 'bigunit'?.
So I've established you are clearly a light-weight of no substance, pretending to inform and talk down to people who can take you apart in a couple of breif questions! And make it clear that you are actually an idiot.
Guess what? It's you who are asleep, dimwit. And you clearly are not the repository of higher learning that you think you are, more a shabby sort of conman.
"You sir, are a tosspot"
Hes the Republican Huey Long, Thrumpy Trump the Hump will give Hilary the Harridan the key to the WH. Socialist collapse to follow.
Really?
Is there some reason we're supposed to give credence to the political analyses of a street person using the internet terminals at the public library?
Like, have you been to Harvard, or done a correspondence course, or something?
First of all, anyone who would take a story from Politico writer serious is stupid as hell. This asshole assumes everything the conservative movement does is outrageously ignorant. But, everything Democrats do is a ok and perfectly practical. What trump has done tha has excited the base is that he is oushing back on that narrative. Plain and simple. You fucking queers from politico and the like are the real idiots. Lets take a look at your track record:
Global warming........uh....sure it is.
Men dressing up like women, perfectly normal
Black lives matter, butwhite ones dont
Its ok to shoot cops
Everyone os a racist
Keynesian economics
Socialism
You guys are the fucking retards and Trump is calling you out on it..
Trump running as a repubican. Fuck him.
I can't wait to see if Trump has the balls to give Hillarity the Rosie O'Donnell treatment in the general election . . . . that is if Hillarity survives the investigation into the classified email issue. It's also pretty telling about the lame nature of the main stream Re-pube-u-cans when the author says; "Trump's floor is higher than all the other candidate's ceilings".
The whole thing is a complete farce and just proves we will never get another "statesmen" - that is, someone who has the best interests of the people in mind and is not bought off by either some Jewish gangster in Las Vegas or a couple of billionaire crook brothers - to run for president until we find a way to get the massive amount of money (i.e. bribes) out of politics in this country.
A likely scenario is forming where Trump wins the GOP, Hilary implodes and Sanders rises up right at the time the SHF, which would give his socialism more appeal as things get desperate. Sanders could be 'their' man.