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US Recession Looms As Factory Orders Plunge 9th Month In A Row
US Manufacturers saw new orders rise at a modest 0.4% in July (missing expectations of a 0.9%). However, year-over-year Factory Orders crashed 14.7% (thanks in large part to last year's Boeing order dropping out of the cycle). But even ex-Transports, New orders tumbled 0.6% in July and plunged 6.9% YoY. This is the 9th month in a row of YoY drops and is without doubt signalling an imminent US recession.
The breakdown as summarized by MNI: "The value of new factory orders rose 0.4% in July, below the 0.7% increase expected in an MNI survey due to a sharp 1.3% drop in nondurables orders, data released by the Commerce Department Wednesday morning showed."
Total factory orders excluding transportation were down 0.6% in July on the decline in nondurable goods orders that more than offset a 0.4% increase for durables orders outside of transportation. The nontransportation durables reading was a downward revision from the 0.6% gain in the advance estimate.
Once again, it's all about autos (subprime loans), and war: Transportation orders themselves were revised sharply higher to a 5.5% jump in July from the originally reported 4.7% rise; motor vehicles orders are now reported up 4.0%, while nondefense aircraft orders are reported down 6.1% and defense aircraft orders fell 13.1%. Orders for ships and boats were up 19.5%."
Headline Factory orders collapse.
and even adjusting out Boeing's huge order, it is a bloodbath.
Weather? Ports? What can 'they' blame this on? Doesn't matter - full steam ahead with the rate hike!
Charts: Bloomberg
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We have been in a recession/depression since the financial crisis of 2008 if you use accurate inflation data.
Factories? What f'ing factories we talking about?
That is codename for McDonald's.
I'm Luvin it.
pods
We are (were) in a recession when the overlords tell us that it happened 6 months back but we are back to growth again now. The fuckness continues.
Correct - the recession will be denied denied denied (or called something else - soft patch, bump in the road, wilted shoots) until it is long over. THEN they will say "hey we're in a recovery!" BUY ALL THE THINGS AGAIN!!!
There will be no more use of the word recession, you terrorists. "Recession" is verbotten.
It's like a burger factory. Come on now.
Well, you are not wrong. Technically they are MRE factories.
On a recent trip to NY, we stopped there on the road for breakfast.
I ate 2 sausage egg and cheese McGriddles and 2 hashbrowns.
Didn't sit all that well, but my BMI went up a half point!
:)
I think they put laxatives in the breakfast foods.
That's so you'll be needing some lunch!
Yeah, but your colon is probably feeling better. McDonalds = ColonBlow = TurboLax3000.
15 minutes after eating that shit and you're running for the pot. Dear Latest McDonalds CEO, your food quality is lower than dumpster garbage. Homeless people eat better AND for less.
I'd rather fast for a day than eat that commercial waste byproduct.
McLuvin it you mean.
.
And sponsored by the $15 minimum wage-driven technology.
Twitter Works, Facebook Mining & Spying, the massive Unicorn farms, to name a few.
'Merica don't do recessions, you commie rat fuck!
Hopefully it's the chicken and pig factories that supply our nations so called "food"
I have just statred raising my own rabbits. First BBQ over the weekend - it was sooooo good. Even the kids loved it. Traded a few for quail and yeah, our diet just improved greatly.
My opinion is that we have been in a recession since soon after 9/11. The war spending that enriched so many insiders (Senator Feinstein's family made over $250 million from Iraq milcon projects she approved) stayed at the top. Tens of trillions of dollars in derivatives made possible by the 1999 repeal of the Glass Steagall Act of 1933 had the side effect of boosting the value of hard assets like real estate. TARP giveaways to Wall Street also inflated the cost of real estate in cities where the beneficaries of these cash grants live. Few longterm jobs came from this crony capitalism.
When you read now how college graduates cannot find jobs, that situation is the result of a U.S. economy that has pretty much stopped creating middle class jobs since 9/11. Borrowed money from the Fed is keeping the U.S. economy barely afloat. That situation won't end anytime soon. If you are riding a tiger, how do you safely get off?
I would only dissagree slightly with the date of 9/11. 9/11 was just the dot at the bottom of the exclamation mark of the Dot Com bust. Once that bubble hit, the Fed immediately began the next bubble which was housing. 9/11 just put fuel to that fire.
Absolutely correct! There has been no recovery, only propaganda and rigged unemployment numbers, among many other pieces of rigged data.
Should not be sipping Cognac so early. I blame fake, manipulated markets.
The Chapwood Index for 2014 was 9.7% and official CPI in the land of the free was only 0.8%. So the Nominal GDP of 5.6% for 2014 becomes real GDP of -4.1%.
The revised real GDP for years 2011 to 2013 worked out to -6.2%, -6.5%, -6.5% respectively.
Yeah, Cognac is best enjoyed after dark. Try a session ale for breakfast.
Rate hike now completely off the table (if it ever really were on it).
Rate hike? What f'ing rate hike we talking about?
Seriously, at this point there ain't no table either.
pods
....the virtual rate hike was resting upon the virtual table.....
If Yellen wants a rate hike no data will deter her. But, she is now trapped. If she does nothing the economy will decline, if she does something the economy will decline and she will look stupid(er). The Fed is buck naked (yep, it's ugly), exposed and they know it. The charade could only last so long. How they explain all this ("unforeseen" up/down stuff) in their next minutes/comments will be comical (China/Saudi's to blame).
A ZH'er commented yesterday (I forget the screen name) - The fed is desperate to raise rates so they can have a reason for QE4
Yep. Raise rates a smidge and shovel $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ out the door.
Lets see local market decimated middle class destroyed.
Most world currencies worth 20 to 80 per cent less against the green back than a year ago
Yep futures bright for manufacturing(sarcasm)
Middle class? What f'ing middle class we talking about?
The 1% is now the new middle class. The .01 % are the rulers and the rest underneath the 1% are the underclass.
I think the word you're looking for is d-e-p-r-e-s-s-i-o-n.
More like an i-m-p-l-o-s-i-o-n!
… you’re so depressing!
Depression? Which f'ing depression we talking about?
sounds like the Fed will be raising rates for sure now....maybe some day those morons will look out the window.
I know it’s hard to believe, but there WAS a time (long, long ago) when people had the ability to THINK !
All this turmoil & terror is not a signal to the Fed that they’d better not raise rates by 0.25 % …
It is the result of all the addicted markets awakening to the realization that the hike is actually going to occur.
The only thing worse than making that microscopic rate hike would be to cancel it now that the shitstorm has started…
Does anyone believe everything would go back to being nice & quiet if they just held off?
Need MOAR war!
War? Which f'ing war we talking about?
If war! created wealth, AmeriKa should truly be the richest nation on Earth and all her People billionaires!
Meh it took Canada only two months of that to enter into recession.
Granma turned off the printer in October '14 ... and it's gone.
And the Beltway wonders why Trump gets traction.
I wonder why Trump gets traction.
pods
Because the majority of Merickns are fucking retards who will glom onto anything for hope. Look at the phony who'se been in office for the last 8 years. If a person were to do just a little bit of homework they would find that Trump doesn't believe a word he is saying, just like they would have found out that Obama was lying through his teeth before he was selected.
I can't Doc, the HNIC is climbing a glacier or something.
Probably burned 80,000 lbs of jet A to fucking get there too.
The cool thing is that him and the Bear guy are going to have to play "2 to a bag" to keep warm when he goes camping with him.
Yep, I've pretty much checked out. :)
pods
"Look at the phony who's been in office for the last 8 years."
A complete phoney by any objective measure viewed from any ideological vantage point. A joke actually.
Just re-frame Trump's polls.....no one really likes the duck, but they hate the insider political collusion going on in D.C. even more.
Heh. He said "recession".
The only thing keeping the fantasy of "recovery" alive is that the stock market is still five times its real value.
Actually, it's not possible to quantify the value of an equity market, because it's not possible to multiply any number by a factor of zero and not get zero as the product.
"ZH: Predicting 'imminent US recession' since 2009"
Uhhhmmm. we've been in a depression since 2000. It's been masked over by massive amounts of debt, SNAP, and homeless shelters. Your mistake is you believe the stock market rally is real and that .gov tells you the truth. But I ask you, if the eCONomy is so good why is SNAP at record highs and labor force participation rates at historic lows?
last nite at the check out lane, the following was charged on EBT:
2 packages of red hot corn whatevers
1 frito package mid size
2 large jumbo sodas with lids on
2 pre packaged cinnamon donuts
2 cups of ice with lids on
2 gator ade
and some other items I can't remember. Quality health food for those who need it.
This purchase was followed by the purchase of some cigarillos and lottery tickets and two shots of "Paul" (paul masson peach brandy in airplane shot bottles for those in the know)
Your tax dollars at work.
big ag
big pharma
big med
all very pleased. Pay us in subsidies, pay us for product, pay us for negative health effects
If they ever change SNAP to only allow the purchase of real food, can inagine the big companies pushback? The people would go through a few weeks of withdrawl but the big pushers would implode.
unfortunetly the bigger problem would be the consumers pushing back. People have lost touch with what food is. Fruits and veggies are near tasteless and have been shipped all over the world before people get them. Look what happens when someone tries to take away peoples gallon-o-soda cups. In america, freedom means being able to slowly kill oneself with processed, foodless garbage.
Right, Doc, the slo-o-o-o-o-o-ow-motion variety as in Japan since 1990-98.
Fuck off Keynesian
ZH overestimated the intelligence of central bankers and wall st and people like you. So we have to do this the long way, for retards like you
Broken clock is still right twice a day.
Tick, tock, motherfucker.
We're expecting a worse than normal El Nino this go round - I don't think they've used that excuse yet - it's got to be good for a few months worth of shitty numbers.
There was a bad ass one in the 90's IIRC, correct?
My fucking girlfriend broke up with me and when I asked her why, she replied.
"El Nino."
pods
Here I would have thought it was because you're a crazy anarchist. ;->
Mikulski backs Iran deal, giving Obama last needed vote
Another Obozo nut licker.
Even if he didn't get the vote the Nigga General would force it through anyway.
While the pussy boy John Bonner would sit by crying sucking on a bottle gin, whining how he couldn't do anything about it.
A complete fucking sick joke...all!
So, when did we exit the Greater Depression in time to enter this Latest Recession?
I've been reading about the 'imminent US recession' on ZH for months. How imminent is imminent? When Yellen gets a haircut? When imminent becomes actual how will we know? MSM?
Recession = " My Legacy "
Just go to MarketWatch dotcom. They'll tell you everything the savvy investor needs to know!
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/the-happiest-country-on-earth-is/17E79B...
A: Be Happy
B: BTFD!
Economy? What fucking economy we talking about?
Sorry. It was too good to resist
bullish
That's not going to look too good on someone's legacy.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Kkc
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1KjD
TX and ND iz fixin' ta roll over into a "banana" right quick, y'all, if'n it ain't already hap'n.