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Total 2015 Job Cuts To Be Biggest Since 2009: Challenger
Moments ago Challenger reported August job cuts, which at 41,186 were a 60% drop from the 115,730 reported last month (the highest since September 2011), which however was driven by a one-time mass layoffs last month in military staffing. Putting August in its correct perspective, the number was 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, when 40,010 planned job cuts were announced.
What is troubling is that this marks the seventh month this year that the job-cut total was higher than the comparable month from 2014.
What is worse is that for all the euphoria about initial claims printing at or near record lows, the reality as measured from the bottom-up, is far different and as Challenger notes, so far in 2015 employers have announced 434,554 job cuts: that is up 31 percent from the 332,931 planned layoffs in the first eight months of 2014.
What is worst, and what reveals the true picture of the economy, is that with monthly totals averaging 54,319, 2015 job cuts are on track to exceed 650,000 for the year, which would be the highest year-end tally since 2009 (1,272,030).
In other words, not only is the economy no longer growing at its previous pace, but due to the ongoing oil rout, tens of thousands of highly-paid workers mostly in the oil space are getting pink slips just as the Fed is preparing to tighten. Putting a number to that estimate, Challenger says that "since the beginning of the year, oil prices have been blamed for 82,268 layoffs, mostly in the energy sector, but also among industrial goods manufacturers that supply equipment and materials for oil exploration and extraction."
Curiously, the biggest culprit for August job cuts was not the energy sector (expect many more layoffs here), but retail. The retail sector saw the heaviest job cutting in August, with 9,601 planned layoffs reported during the month. Most of those were related to bankruptcy of east coast supermarket chain A&P, which is closing more than 100 stores and laying off a reported 8,500 workers by Thanksgiving.
The retail sector has announced 57,363 job cuts so far this year, which is a 90 percent increase over the 30,109 job cuts announced by this point in 2014.
“Overall, retail is relatively healthy, but we have seen some big layoffs this year, particularly from long-time players that simply have not been able to keep up with changing consumer trends. These retailers somehow manage to survive, but only through multiple bankruptcies, such as A&P. Earlier this year RadioShack announced 5,400 job cuts,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The industrial goods sector saw the second heaviest downsizing activity in August, announcing 7,949 layoffs during the month. That is the largest number of job cuts for this sector since March, when 9,163 job cuts were announced.
Finally, going back to oil, Challenger was optimistic, however this optimism is misplaced. This is what it said:
“The stream of job cuts related to oil prices appears to be ebbing. The majority of these cuts came in the first four months of 2015, when we saw more than 68,000 layoffs related to oil. Since May, fewer than 14,000 job cuts have been attributed to oil prices,” noted Challenger.
There is a problem: as ConocoPhillips just announced two days ago when it fired 10% of its global workforce, oil companies which had been betting on an oil rebound, all got flatfooted by the second drop in oil price. This will lead to tens of thousands of more highly paid jobs being pink slipped in the coming months.
“It is too soon to say if we have seen the last of the big oil cuts. As we head into the final months of 2015, there are definitely some red flags that suggest we may see more layoffs from the energy sector, as well as in other areas of the economy. The problems that China is facing could send shockwaves throughout the global economy, including the United States,” Challenger continued.
Finally, one thing that is certain: of all states, Texas continues to bear the brunt of the layoff pain. And if oil continues trading in the $30/$40 range, the pain is far from over.
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Because Texas still has jobs...
Since Lehman.
Mix it up a bit.Since Bear Sterns.
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains there's a land that's fair and bright
Where the handouts grow on bushes and you sleep out every night
Where the boxcars are all empty and the sun shines every day
On the birds and the bees and the cigarette trees
Where the lemonade springs where the bluebird sings
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains
CA, NY, DC, IL, and NJ make the top of the list. Hmm, wonder why. Now what kind of policies would be bad for the economy in those states?
"A job now a days often proves to be a temporary and unprofitable nuisance"
(a public service announcement from the FSA)
The Messiah's Legacy.
beware false messiahs.
Daniel 11: 37 he will not regard the God of his fathers and he will not desire women. He will not acknowledge any god; because he will magnify himself above all.
Looks like Good Ole Danny got a glimpse at Mohamed El Obama's reign over the USSA.
Don't forget: MA, OR, WA, MI, OH.... and soon to be all the formerly red states that have become occupied by relocated UN refugees. Places like ME, ND, NC, etc... DC is doing it's damnedest to get rid of those pesky conservative states.
56,000 + layoffs/ firings in DC? I call major bullshit.
DC is small. Compared to Texas or California, it's a crossroad with a stoplight. There are more tower cranes than you can count. If 56,000 were fired, it would be HUGE news around here.
Anyone want to try to explain?
I'd believe it more to say they added 56,000 .gov or contractors.
Yes....that number kind of leapt out with a big ? attached to it.
Also that chart of the states is misleading as the states with the biggest populations are going to have more job cuts happening than those with a tiny population.
we're all doomed
THE ROBOTS ARE COMING
THE TAX MEN ARE COMING
THE MIGRANTS ARE COMING
THE GM FOOD IS COMING
THE ANTIBIOTICS NOT WORKING IS COMING
THE WATER SHORTAGE IS COMING
THE SYSTEM BREAKDOWN IS.........................................coming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7RIgs3eygo
It would be funny if half of that shit wasn't true.
THE ROBOTS ARE COMING-Yes, automation is coming
THE TAX MEN ARE COMING-No, the tax men are here.
THE MIGRANTS ARE COMING-The migrants are here and will increase in numbers (in the US and Europe [it seems]).
THE GM FOOD IS COMING-GMO food is already here.
THE ANTIBIOTICS NOT WORKING IS COMING-Some antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria do exist and seem to be increasing.
THE WATER SHORTAGE IS COMING-If you're in California it is already there. If you are in a frack state, your water supply may be getting poisoned.
THE SYSTEM BREAKDOWN IS.........................................coming-I hope so. Waiting around is starting to bug me.
They are all here and increasing....................to some they have not arrived at thier door yet at ever increasing levels.
PS.................there is alot more you or I and others could add to the list
THE GM FOOD IS COMING-GMO food is already here.
It has been here for 20 years. And people are dropping like flies. Life expectancy is now 40 years and dropping. It is almosts as disasterous as climate change.
Thinking the same thing - you have to have jobs in the first place in order to lose them.
Going to hold on to what I am doing as long as possible, God willing.
"ZH: Fearlessly Predicting Imminent US Recession Since 2009"
A recession would be an improvement on the current deprssion.
It's a matter of persepctive. For bankers, DC parasites and gubmint employees, it's never been better. For the private sector Middle Class and small biz owner, it's been devastation.
Commercial real estate here. The ONLY action is from government contractors or health care. And the .gov guys are in HIGH cotton.
Quite literally celebrate contracts by gathering employees, passing out cigars and popping champagne corks. Yes, it makes your fucking skin crawl.
"ZH: Fearlessly Reporting On The Greater Depression Since 2009"
US has been in persistent recession since 2008
Energy, Retail, and Government are leading the way to prosperity.
Government are lending the way to prosperity
FIFY
No problem. They can all become day traders.
Can we talk about the layoffs in DC (no.2 on the chart)?
I call bullshit.
Many of those energy sector jobs are among the best paying jobs created in the U.S. Deep job losses in that sector really hurts.
It does increase my savings rate though..
Do you hear that giant sucking sound?
It is my girlfriends on their knees.
So ... unemployment should dip down below 5% now according to the B(L)S. Winning!!
Those states who have seen the greatest growth in employment will be the first to lose those jobs. You can't lose what you ain't got.
Unemployment will continue to decline because the counted labor pool is shrinking. Besides, the only reason why anyone is paid to do these metric counts is to support a theme. Government's job is to obscure reality, defeat transparency, for the good of the people. They can't afford for us to see whats really going on as we might panic and stampede.
They count W-2's not 1099. as more and more of the labor force is transferred to 1099 the nature of the employment allows the DoL to ignore those people in their count. coupled with subtle system changes in the way the people have to file to get the benefits.
plus only six months - once reaching the plateau these people are not labor therefore not counted - they are machines permanently turned off.
which is why Obama likes U-3 metric for promotional value
All those quality jobs being created though! /sarcasm/sentence fragment.
"yeajesusr"
Best ZH typo ever.
I was going to mention that but you got it first. They probably laid off the editor.
LOL. Zerohedge has/had an editor? Sure doesn't seem like it. If they do, hopefully he was fired.
New Mexico with only 103?
Doug Short's chart is the one to watch. Come to think of it in ZH terms though - the Initial Claims numbers could be repressed as the hot jobs sector, "Leisure and Hospitality", might not feed into Initial Claims (??) as they might be exempt (??). Humm. Anyway watch the chart. The next move up signals a recession.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Unemployment-Claims-an...