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Must Be The Weather?
Low oil prices? Low interest rates? Jobs galore? Wages pressures? Time for a rate hike? Then explain this...
Welcome to the 'recovery'
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
And by way of the most recent example - the once-was-a-bellwether... GAP:
- *GAP: BANANA REPUBLIC AUGUST COMP SALES DOWN 11%, EST. DOWN 2.2%
- *GAP INC. AUGUST COMP SALES DOWN DOWN 2%, EST. DOWN 0.4%
- *GAP BRAND AUGUST COMP SALES DOWN 8%, EST. DOWN 4.4%
Apparently this is due to Labor Day's timing... not the weather.
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besides timing, GAP doesn't do GAAP, do the retailers follow same booking methods ?
There are now too many younger stores to choose from (in the 70's GAP was fairly unique and hip).
So many people vacationing in Europe that they don't have time to shop.
-Krugman
Gas under TWO YANKEE DOLLAH in Va this morning.
Happy days..., for some.
Green shoots, Bitchez!
No green shoots. Those fields have been overgrazed by sheep.
DAMN!!!! Got to WAY increase limits on those EBT cards and walkin around money. Ripple sales are up but nothing else.
"Got to WAY increase limits on those EBT cards and walkin around money."
Consider it done:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/census-93.7-of-immigrant-families-with-4-kids-on-welfare/article/2571359
93.7% of Immigrant Families with 4 Kids is ON WELFARE!!!
The Chinese touristas can’t get here till their government lets them liquidate some assets.
There have been a few green shoots but as soon as they pop up, Obama and the left make sure they get plowed under. The left is a menace to our security and our economic well being. What will they do to us next? Oh..this just in - Give Iran 150 billion so they don't have to build the bomb, they can just go buy a few.
The real legacy Obama wants is to be remembered as the guy who killed the US.
His daddy issues will kill the nation.
Trans-national progressives rejoice.
Green shoots,…
Just anecdotally, I’ve been driving around the backroads and freeways of Northern CA central valley in recent weeks and it’s quite difficult to relate to the overgrazing, “CA is a desert”, “ “drought stricken” dustbowl comments when all I see are trucks of tomatoes, fresh cut alfalfa, (4th and 5th cuttings), plowing under recently harvested onion, corn fields, grape harvesting, newly producing walnut and olive orchards, pistachios, almonds, etc. everywhere I go.
Seriously, trying to wrap my head around preppers hand grubbing their several acres of mixed vegetable gardens while viewing multi-thousand acres of flourishing industrial farming is tough to reconcile. I’m all in favor of knowing how to survive, but even with the catastrophe awaiting us when our financial wizardries are eventually exposed as criminal, the ability we have to produce far more than we consume is beautiful to behold.
Jmo.
I already nominated someone for the dumbest post of the year award. Now I wish that I had waited.
Now I wish that I had waited...
Go ahead, make my day.
Jmo - I live in No CA, and I know what you are saying, but go south, young man. Starting around Sacto, check out Highway 99 - the true roadway through hell. Fresno, Reedly, Visalia, Bakersfield, Barstow, and the small towns in between.
Check out the fields. Not so green, or if they are, they are pumpin' ground water, which is a losing proposition. Industrial farming, as it has been practiced for many years, is at the wall due to the drought. The fires ain't helping either. I know some small scale organic farmers and winery owners in north CA that are making a living at it (non-dope growers, OK?), but there is real concern about the long term weather - course farmers always worry about weather. In central valley and south central, the big ag guys are reaching panic as they scale back acreage.
So far the dope growers are ok, and there is starting to be some sensible regulation of water use/diversion and dope growing in Humboldt County that is long overdue and kind of cutting edge. Course this is the tense time - the outdoor and greenhouse without lights grows are just developing really nice-sized buds, but there is about a month to go to sweat out federale raids and the more dangerous city-boy rip-offs. One of thses days, all this will get legalized and rationalized, but probably not in my lifetime - I've been watching this shit for 40 years (I don't grow dope, btw - my drug of choice is local white wine and good old single malt scotch.)
go south, young man...
Born and lived here myself, +57years. Strictly offered as an anecdote and you're right about the location, my limited travels around the area this year are primarily Modesto north to Marysville, 99 corridor and east. I realize the severe distrust for GMO and all, but it's hard to deny the sheer quantity of foodstuffs grown around here. Juxtaposing the scale of harvests with pictures of starving humans on the other side of the globe is tough to fathom is all.
I’ll concede the vast imbalances are political in nature much like the fact we here in CA haven’t added appreciable water storage for at least the time you’ve been here. And you’ve got to admit when vineyards are measured in miles, and wineries measure their products in tanks resembling refineries, it makes our meager boxes and bottles pretty insignificant.
I still marvel at the number of families that could probably survive just on the piles of tomatoes I drive through on the freeway on and off ramps. Crazy world sometimes.
Still jmo.
People can't afford to go to the GAP. Goodwill and consignment stores are booming though.
yep, oversupply of clothes
Companies should start manufacturing clothes with expiration dates
I go to the goodwill stores because I'm cheap and they have T-shirts for jogging in.
Funny, I go because i'm cheap and they have t-shirts for spilling beer on.
Been traveling around the west and midwest the past month or two...noticed a proliferation of brand new (and quite busy) Family Dollar stores.
Goodwill stores also packed whenever I see one.
There was never a recovery.
Tick tock, tick tock...
Family Dollar stores are popping up everywhere around here. It's really quite amazing.
Hey, you can get blue jeans there for $8. They ain't Levis or Wranglers, but they're warm and have just as many pockets. The T/P is cheap there as well.
But, like Levis, do they have the gay stamp of approval?
My lady friend introduced me to Family Dollar - amazing! If you really know what you want, you can see how they cut the cost, but it is still often and amazing value.
Support Your Local Dollar Store!
I think maybe I shoulda bought stock in them about two years ago...
Try to buy a house in suburban NY or DC... the recovery has been awesome!
"Life is good in the Capital District."
Nothing a little quadruple seasonal adjustment cannot fix.
Wait...can't moar CTRL+P fix this?
It's those whoever they are blaming this weeks fault. Because, as we all know, the markets are completely honest and President Zippy has shovel ready jobs for everybody....
I believe "this" Recovery Summer is the one which will "recover us" for good.
Except this 'recovering' will be much larger and deeper than any recovering in history. Hope you have a long garden hose to breath through once we're fully recovered...
Good thing we are heading into the "shopping" season.
Getting ready to lay out big bucks for the "must have" X-Mas gift for that special someone!
Let's just hope that it does not get cold this winter or....Snow!
..we don't need no stinkin' clothes.....or machines...or transportation...or anything that cost money....we're just fine with what we have....cuz we're broke.
...son...if you don't have money you done et...
No no LasVegas - we will always need booze.
"Then explain this..."
Simple: crushing student debt (debt bubble v2a; 2b is sub-prime auto loans) and, most importantly, McJobs (and far worse) counted as "jobs" since they use their own CRAP data.
TUESDAY, JUNE 16, 2015
What's the Real Unemployment Rate in the U.S.?
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2015/06/whats-real-unemployment-rat...
"Based on income, I set the fully employed rate at 60%, and the marginally employed/unemployed rate at 40%. If we accept the BLS's 121 million full-time jobs (which once again, this doesn't make sense given even minimum wage full-time jobs earn $14,500, and 50 million people report earnings of less than $15,000), we still get a marginally employed/unemployed rate of 25%: work force of 160 million, 121 million fully employed.
These numbers align much better with the real economy than the official unemployment rate of 5.6%. It's nonsense to count everyone earning a few hundred or few thousand dollars annually as being employed in the same category as full-time workers or those earning $15,000 or more annually."
We're constantly bombarded with Black Lives Matter, but in reality, it's Black Swans Matter! As I've been saying on this forum, it's nearly an eclipse today with all these huge birds looking for a place to land. Indeed, the insanity escalates. Get ready as #BlackSwansMatter
#Blackswimmersmatter?
and the guy making brownies said #brownbattermatters
There are cracks (in confidence) forming...
ahhh...Cracks in the Gaps.
The FED will cock over all the cracks and gaps with an orgasmic like injection..
More good news for the rate hike and global economy "since Lehman":
Almost half of homes in NY, D.C. are losing valuehttp://www.telegram.com/article/20150903/NEWS/150909691/101499
High street sales tumble to lowest level since 2008 crisishttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/118424...
Sales across all retail sectors slumped in August to the lowest point since November 2008, according to BDOSurely someone can double seasonally adjust and hedonically massage these numbers to get the desired result!
BANANA REPUBLIC AUGUST COMP SALES DOWN 11%, EST. DOWN 2.2%
no further comment needed
Work all night on a drink of rum
Daylight come and me wan' go home
Stack banana till de morning come
Daylight come and me wan' go home
Come, Mister tally man, tally me banana
Daylight come and me wan' go home Henry Belefonte
Now I have to go listen to some calypso!
Is that for the whole Banana Republic, or just trademarked stores
Met Harry when he opened the Int Slave Museum (yup) in Liverpool. Nice bloke.
if the cfo can't lie any better than that he isn't very good at his job
Maybe the cfo is honest?
Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.
CFO honest- hehehehehehehehehe
Does not compute.
How's yer campaign going? Folks are counting on you...
People bought so much shit they already own everything.
Labor Day's timing?? Any excuse in a cotastrophe
All the kids are in college now (birthrates down too), so the demographics are aging fast...
Gap Down! ! I was talking about the stock market next week.
As this article illustrates the notoriously "easy" pro inflation Fed is suddenly trying to tighten despite horrific world data and a poor recovery. While I have not seen too many explanations why it is doing this, I think it is an important question.
Why is the Fed tightening despite China, IMF, BIS, Japan, Emerging markets, the EU, the democrats, the financial markets, the FIRE economy pleading with the FED to hold on? The Fed is risking a stock market crash by tightening. It is going to hurt the banks.
Kind of curious, no?
I would like to hear your opinion on this, but I think it has to do with America's desire to destroy Russia. And why not? It worked in the late 80's with the commodity crash that was partially responsible for destroying Russia. And if this deflationary collapse brings down China as well, why not. The Powers that be are probably thinking "We will teach them a lesson as well."
IMO, one thint that is prompting the Fed to go forth w tightening is what the Fed and its' handlers have learned from the 2008 crash. That they can inflate anything with enough printing. So they are probably thinking bringing down and partitioning Russia is worth a crash and a mini depression, cause as soon as we do that we will print to heaven.
Supplemental benefits (to them) are making gold price go down, and destroying the labor market (that way those workers can't complain too much).
WIN, WIN /s
If it were the intention of the FED to crash our economy on purpose would this all make more sense? Kind of like Obama's policies.....makes sense if you know what his end-game is.
Jawboning...until the FED actually raises...it's only talk. I don't believe they can/will raise rates. If they do...the leverage effect would mean game over man!
I have been a big proponent for months that the Fed ain't gonna tighten - they can't. US Government debt is too high.
But they just might this month, because it is the last chance they will get to 'do something' before they absolutely can't. AND, it will give them a tiny, I mean teensie tiny amount of dry powder to cut back to zero when things go to hell this fall. Cut that lousy tiny .25% and announce another QE -what the hell is left to counter the next crash?
They are damned if they do and damned if they don't - so the calculus is which is the lesser damned? It appears to me that a tiny rise to .025%, which someone on this list is always pointing out is too tiny to mean shit (EXCEPT in perception of the financial market players), is now necessary to maintain any sembelance of credibility to the Fed.
This is countered by the timidity (SP?) of the Fed BOG. "Gotta be careful", "Don't act too soon" clueless academics who I think know that they don't know what the fuck they are doing. May be wrong about this, which really scares me.
Conclusion = FAFC (TM) Flip a fucking coin.
GAAP, that's like when Standard Operation Procedures (SOP) were re-name Suggested Operating Procedures (SOG), to reduce liability exposure.
Jawbone rate hikes. Knock down stocks. Load the boat. Announce QE on PCP. Chill on Yacht while the worlds burns.
Will be a good time for small Pirate start-up business and start harvesting those Yacht's at sea!
BR has decent slim/tailored shirts. In a nation of self propelled stomachs its hard to be an outlier (in shape) and find stuff that fits.
The 0.0001% do NOT shop at GAP. All is well.
The remaining 'things are OK" defenders will point out that the brick & mortar stores and malls used in these types of statistics are not representative anymore as they have been supplanted by internet shopping (Amazon, etc). It doesn't occur to this type of people that all stores now sell over the internet
Also, i can't wait to hear their rational when their "saving grace" Amazon also shows stalled sales. Agree with all Goodwill and consignment store posts. Also yard sales, estate sales, and flea markets have picked up.
There's no WAY I'm spending any money. I had to skip a semester of Engineering so I would have a cushion in my account. Goodwill sound like an idea!