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"Good-Enough" Jobs Data Sparks Stock Slump As September Rate Hike Odds Jump
Update - Equity market weakness is accelerating...
The dollar, TSY yields, and Gold have roundtripped close to unch as stocks dump. Crude is back below $46...
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September rate hike probability jumped up to 34% (and December 60%) following the 'headline' positive payrolls print. The market is reacting very hawkishly to the data with USD surging, bonds and stocks selling off and commodities leaking lower.
Markets are not happy...
As rate hike odds are rising...Now 34%
Charts: Bloomberg
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Give us moar heroin or the "market" gets it.
WHAT I SAID YOU MOOKS!
THE FERAL RESERVE WILL RAISE RATES SOON NO MATTER WHAT@
"More horse testicles means more iron." - Lunch Lady, The Simpsons
the fed gets to experiment again. a few 25 basis point raises here and there...see how asset prices react, then back to zero and qe4.
(pretty much what I'm thinking)
We laugh when we hear traders brag, "we don't care if stawks are up or down, we're gonna make money either way...". Well, judging from the long faces on the trading floor, they are not so adept at making money on the way down!
"then back to zero and qe4"
Exactly. Raise rates, accelerate EM FX crisis due to more expensive payback of dollar denominated debt, EM sourced commodities crater further, markets crater further, more QE4 "justified" (but only to the clueless, i.e. the majority).
Stron case for rate hiukes my ass....the case has been this strong for years (terrible) must be getting desperate.....this is so pathetic
Yes, yes they will. They determined September a long time ago.
Never gonna happen, incessant jawboning to the contrary notwithstanding.
My SPXS position double dog dares old yellen to raise dem rates. Maybe even triple dog dare. Do it wench.
Ah, poor diddums, a quarter of a percent increase and the 'markets' are having a hissy fit
Jobs miss, participation rate stays the same, and unemployment rate drops 0.2 percent. I guess no one else gives that a Spock eyebrow?
(Spock is DEAD)
Funny how the rate hike odds seem to follow almost perfectly the gyrations in equity markets. So when the Fed says it's "data dependent," I guees we know which data they're talking about.
Fall in futures is half due to probable rate hike and half due to Yen/USD rate.
Except that USDJPY (and any other carry trade) also trades in response to future interest rate expectations (when one party to the trade isn't a CB)...
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlVmdGiAH2A
FED can't raise rates with US sitting on 18T debt. That's my 2 cents.
Fed has to raise so that the market can fantasise about them lowering again.
Love how good news is a now a market-killer. This is your market on Fedcrack.
Its not the rate hike, but the lack of a QE backstop.
But if mkts tank hard, moar qe
Rule 48?
When the Market is being held hostage why the fuck does Gold have to get hammered too ???? This should be bullish Gold !!!!!
And that's why you lose money.
Dow 18,000.
Wall Street is now like a seven year old boy, still breast feeding... But hey, Its not the kids fault. He is "almost strong enough" to get off the tit but the FED/Mother likes like the action too much to give it up now.
Rates are rising, simple as. The idea that the FED is tracking every indicator before moving is flawed. The FED HAS to raise rates to avoid crisis, regardless of the data and they are feeding the news under the tag of 'normalizing'. When you look at US rate history and consider what 'normal' is, be prepared for imminent, sustained increases.
Isn't it time for the FED to trot out that guy who single-handidly turned things around when the market was plunging a few months ago?
Jobs data didn't promt a stock selloff. It's time to distribute, and the big guys distribute when they can. The news is shaped to fit the needs of distribution, not the other way around.
bullshit
The FED finally understands QE did nothing and want's to raise rates, all you have to do is watch the MSM listen to them push how great job creation has been. God I hate CNBC.