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Putin: Assad Would "Accept" Snap Elections To Avoid "Total Chaos"
Overnight, we brought you the latest on the “friggin mess” (to quote the Pentagon) that is Syria, where Bashar al-Assad is desperately clinging to power while his depleted army fights a three-front war against a dizzying array of “freedom fighters”, jihadists, former CIA strategic assets, current CIA strategic assets, the Kurds, and god only knows who else.
The Assad regime is (literally) surrounded by hostile states who are angling for his ouster and if you had any lingering doubts about why it is that everyone wants Syria’s strongman gone, look no further than this map:
Note the purple line which traces the proposed Qatar-Turkey natural gas pipeline and note that all of the countries highlighted in red are part of a new coalition hastily put together after Turkey finally (in exchange for NATO’s acquiescence on Erdogan’s politically-motivated war with the PKK) agreed to allow the US to fly combat missions against ISIS targets from Incirlik. Now note which country along the purple line is not highlighted in red. That’s because Bashar al-Assad didn’t support the pipeline and now we’re seeing what happens when you’re a Mid-East strongman and you decide not to support something the US and Saudi Arabia want to get done.
Of course if that pipeline gets built, it means Gazprom’s leverage over Europe is over and that’s bad news for Vladimir Putin and for Vladimir Putin’s personal money vault which is why Russia has so far stood behind Assad and also explains why now, the Russian military is operating in Syria alongside regime forces.
But make no mistake, the Kremlin isn’t naive enough to miss the writing on the wall. Restoring the Assad of yesteryear likely isn’t an option here unless the Russians intend to take this all the way and engage in open combat with the US and its regional allies. Instead, it looks like Russia will do the following: send in the military using the very same excuse that everyone else has used (i.e. fighting ISIS, which at this point has been reduced to the scapegoat everyone uses whenever they want to do something that’s otherwise absurd) while hoping against hope that some manner of political compromise can be found that keeps Assad in power. On that latter point, we go to Bloomberg:
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to early parliamentary elections and to share some power with his opponents, a concession that may facilitate a broader international coalition against Islamic State, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
Russia would consider participating in the coalition and the Russian president has already discussed the issue with U.S. President Barack Obama, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, Putin told reporters in Vladivostok on Friday. Russia has been pushing for a wider campaign against Islamic State that would include Assad, something the U.S. and Europe have opposed.
“There is a general understanding that joint efforts in the fight against terrorism should go hand by hand with the political process in Syria,” Putin said. Assad “agrees to this,” and has also agreed to early parliamentary elections and to include “healthy opposition” in the government, said Putin, a key ally of the Syrian president. Four Syrian lawmakers couldn’t be immediately reached for comment.
Putin’s comments came after reports this week that Russia is ramping up its involvement in Syria. Russian troops are fighting with Assad’s forces and images of what appeared to be Russian planes and drones in the skies over Syria have been published, the U.K.’s The Telegraph newspaper reported on Sept. 2. Russia’s Defence Ministry has denied any direct military intervention.
Putin’s comments indicate he’s not ready to accept U.S. and European demands for Assad’s departure at this stage, said Irina Zvyagelskaya, a senior fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow. Even so, Russia isn’t committed to preserving his rule indefinitely, she said.
“It’s a signal that we won’t stick to Assad at all costs, but we consider the most important thing is to preserve Syria as a state,” Zvyagelskaya said. “Otherwise you risk total chaos.”
Now obviously, the idea that somehow Syria is going to be able to organize and carry out any kind of elections amid the violence is beyond ridiculous or, as Sami Nader, head of the Beirut-based Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs politely puts it, "how can you organize a fair election in a country that’s shattered by war, with no security, fair electoral law or freedoms?”
Well, you can't, which is why there will be no political solution here and Putin will eventually (and it now looks like "eventually" means "sooner rather than later") have to decide whether to draw a line in the sand (perhaps literally) and tell anyone and everyone including ISIS, al-Nusra, the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Qatar that Assad is staying in power and that's that.
In the end, the more likely scenario is, as we've always predicted, that the Assad regime falls and (very) shortly thereafter, US marines storm in to "liberate" Damascus at which point a puppet government will be installed - a puppet government which will coincidentally see the utility in allowing the Qatar-Turkey pipeline to be run through Syria.
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Yes, snap elections in cities like Aleppo where 95% of the electricity is cut off. Dream on. This war is not going to end soon.
Obama should be taking notes on how Putin successfully leaves the global bargaining table time after time after time. Love him or hate him, Putin is a power player and gets his shit done.
And I'm getting sick of it. Since when does Putin get to be the reasonable one?
There is no reasoning with ones who are on the wrong side of nature, so since then I say.
The US government would go along with that only if they got to count the votes.
Eversince.
Booo... weekend Tyler.
"...the “friggin mess” (to quote the Pentagon) that is Syria, where Bashar al-Assad is desperately clinging to power..."
He seems pretty popular with the Syrian people who - in non-ISIS-occupied-territory - still trust him and apparently are willing to die to preserve his rule. Your statement is equivalent to a claim tha Putin is 'clinging to power' - it defies what can be easily observed in places OTHER THAN the MSM.
"...while his depleted army fights a three-front war against a dizzying array of “freedom fighters”, jihadists, former CIA strategic assets, current CIA strategic assets, the Kurds, and god only knows who else..."
Ahhh... no. He's fighting all U.S. State Department assets. The CIA has turned into a joke and useless tool - they got drone missions, nothing else. And Assad is NOT fighting the Kurds. In fact, they seem to be on pretty good terms nowadays. The Kurds have two enemies: Turkey and the U.S. contract terrorists - ISIS. I'll stand corrected if you can show me a single instance where the SAA and Kurds were fighting each other in the last few years.
"...The Assad regime is (literally) surrounded by hostile states who are angling for his ouster and if you had any lingering doubts about why it is that everyone wants Syria’s strongman gone, look no further than this map:..."
Weekend Tyler once again trumpets the Qatari gas line, and once again IGNORES Israel's interest in securing 1) the pipeline in Syria to sell their Leviathan gas to Europe, and 2) the Mosul-Haifa oil pipeline that U.S. soldiers died for. Maybe I should call you Hasbara Tyler. And exactly who is 'everyone' that want's Assad gone? Syria? Iraq? Iran? The Kurds? The Christians still alive in Syria? No - it's just the ZATO/Gulf States Axis of Evil that want's Assad gone, not 'everyone'.
In an unexpected obfuscation, Weekend Tyler tosses a speculative (but quite unfunded) Iranian pipeline in a graphic purportedly showing the enemies of Syria surrounding it. Bizzare because none of the clownfuckery in the Middle East (nor the millions of deaths it caused) have had anything to do with any Iranian pipeline scheme. The point is for Western powers to build theirs first, not fight an imaginary future pipeline.
Then how can I not call out the obvious red-lettered ISLAMIC PIPELINE. That's just fucking sad, Hasbara Tyler. Nobody calls it that besides Israel. Troll much?
"...note that all of the countries highlighted in red are part of a new coalition hastily put together..."
Really? You mean they never even talked to each other before Turkey agreed to let the U.S. use Incirlik? I'm not even sure what point this is suppose to make.
"...Now note which country along the purple line is not highlighted in red..."
The same country that Israel needs for its oil and gas pipelines?
"...Of course if that pipeline gets built, it means Gazprom’s leverage over Europe is over and that’s bad news for Vladimir Putin and for Vladimir Putin’s personal money vault..."
Yes... it's far better that war criminal and psychopath Nettanyahu gets his pipelines build so he can fill his personal money vaults. Or some ignorant, racist psychopath in Qatar gets his personal money-vault filled. Or Cheney and his cronies. Considering the options, I prefer a Russian company runs any pipeline through there.
"...Restoring the Assad of yesteryear likely isn’t an option here unless the Russians intend to take this all the way and engage in open combat with the US and its regional allies..."
Oh for fuck's sake, Hasbara Tyler - Assad is still president and runs Syria. He doesn't need to be 'restored' (except in the mind of trolls). And since three-quarters of a million of his citizens are DEAD, two million have fled the country and damn near the entire infrastructure has been destroyed, there isn't going to be any 'yesteryear' Assad - we fucking destroyed Syria. Do you get that?
Russia will not and does not need to intervene militarily - the U.S. war of terror is collapsing on itself. All Russia needs to do is support Syria against illegal and immoral American aggression.
"...Instead, it looks like Russia will do the following: send in the military using the very same excuse that everyone else has used (i.e. fighting ISIS, which at this point has been reduced to the scapegoat everyone uses whenever they want to do something that’s otherwise absurd) while hoping against hope that some manner of political compromise can be found that keeps Assad in power..."
Simply selling Assad interceptor aircraft and air defense systems is enough to prevent the U.S. and cronies from declaring Syria a no-fly zone. Without air dominance, the U.S. has NOTHING. The mercenary terrorist ground war is failing. If Assad can defend his airspace from the U.S./Israeli/Turkish bullies, then ISIS is DEAD.
"...On that latter point, we go to Bloomberg:..."
And, on cue, Bloomberg has Assad dead an buried. Hasbara wishful thinking does not equate to reality. The people of Syria are the only ones that decide who runs their country. Not the U.S., not Russia and damn sure not Israel.
"...Now obviously, the idea that somehow Syria is going to be able to organize and carry out any kind of elections amid the violence is beyond ridiculous or, as Sami Nader, head of the Beirut-based Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs politely puts it, "how can you organize a fair election in a country that’s shattered by war, with no security, fair electoral law or freedoms?”..."
Yeah... maybe U.S. should leave them the fuck alone so they can have security, fair electoral law and 'freedoms'?
"...Well, you can't, which is why there will be no political solution here and Putin will eventually (and it now looks like "eventually" means "sooner rather than later") have to decide whether to draw a line in the sand (perhaps literally) and tell anyone and everyone including ISIS, al-Nusra, the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Qatar that Assad is staying in power and that's that..."
Putin has made it pretty clear that the Syrian people can decide who runs the place, and he's clearly said MANY times that it's not up to him to decide.
"...In the end, the more likely scenario is, as we've always predicted, that the Assad regime falls and (very) shortly thereafter, US marines storm in to "liberate" Damascus at which point a puppet government will be installed - a puppet government which will coincidentally see the utility in allowing the Qatar-Turkey pipeline to be run through Syria..."
In your fucking dreams, Hasbara Tyler.
"Simply selling Assad interceptor aircraft and air defense systems is enough to prevent the U.S. and cronies from declaring Syria a no-fly zone. Without air dominance, the U.S. has NOTHING. The mercenary terrorist ground war is failing. If Assad can defend his airspace from the U.S./Israeli/Turkish bullies, then ISIS is DEAD."
^^THIS^^
Along with Russian troops securing the AD sites and airfields this will go a long way to thwarting the state dept.
+1
First off great post paveway. To the interceptor point, as I said in my poast below, apparently several PAtriot batteries have been dismantled on the turk syria border which now opens up the likes of swing wing sukhois and migs to bomb the AIDS out of ISIS, while interceptors can be at the ready if turkey wants to party. That bodes ill for any momentum the "rebels" have, which is not much.
I don't fukkin get why there has been a noticable slant on zerohedge towards the abyss of mockingbird mainstream horseshit recently. I'm apparently not the only one noticing it so it is I guess more than me needing to be medicated.
Speaking of which, in light of recent articles like this, Tyler - can I have your dealer's number?
Paveway IV 1 - Weekend Tyler 0
+ 1,000
excellent
The Qatari pipeline story is a cover fake-real reason to obfuscate Israel's gas find/plans and the long-standing plans to Balkanize surrounding states for Israeli hegemony.
Israel was involved in 9/11 and managed to get away with it - Israel and the ZOG run this government.
The US isn't committing this sort of time and money for a Qatari gas pipeline.
No - it was more important to stop competition with Israel and to destroy Syria as a functioning sovereign state - which was the end game in Libya and Iraq and will be in Lebanon and perhaps Sinai.
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2013/06/the-machiavelian-threefold-game-of-the-...
http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=western_support_for_islam...
http://www.globalresearch.ca/greater-israel-the-zionist-plan-for-the-mid...
HOW MUCH MORE OBVIOUS MUST IT BE?
http://www.ahavat-israel.com/eretz/future
+100
Keep posting Paveway. ZH is getting a bit old for me anymore and your posts are among the best. The Tyler's are doing too many WSJ cut a paste jobs. And quoting Bloomber? WTF? Total peopaganda outlet of total shit.
Paveway start your own web site because ZH stuff is getting lame. Saker and his links are more interesting.
Thanks for your posts.
If Putin was getting shit done Syria would not be in the state it is in.
Do you even for a second think that US would have allowed this to happen to one of its strategic partners.
Can you imagine the US sitting back this long if Jordan was under such attack and with clear evidence of other countries in the region being involved?
There would have been cruise missiles flying long time ago.
If you took the current situation and reversed Russia with US, Saudi Arabia would be missing a few oil field and few military bases. Quatar would be nothing but a hole in the sand.
You say that Russia is not aggressive and unlike the US does not see threats to its interests everywhere? You are right.
giovanni_f, not aggressive or simply less aggressive? but the other part is a bit simpler, isn't it? Russia's interests aren't everywhere
Sir - can you read English? I mean it as I write it.
bah. I had a better impression of you, previously. hold tight to that innocent cuddly teddy that is never, ever at fault, in a world that is only in stark blacks and whites
Giovanni, your arguments are circular, and you are stuck in a loop of your own logic. Not all countries want to promote war as a solution. Actually none do, other than the US and maybe Isreal. US allies (like jordan) are not attacked because countries other than the US don't want to topple regimes. Even as an "ally" Russia is trying to stay "neutral" as much as possible, and play a leadership role toward a path of diplomacy rather than force. Russia wants to stress diplomacy, because that is where their advantage over the US lies.
Agree, even +1ed you, but I am the wrong target fot this reply. Where there is a circle please show me. Despite my degree in logic I couldn't find it.
Maybe try to read this to get a better idea why Russians are acting in such way: http://thesaker.is/on-russian-military-interventions-or-lack-thereof/
Hint: their first priority is to protect the people and soil of Russia, not to wage wars for for others
He works for the actual NWO, what we have in the West is simply a decoy, that once destroyed is meant to fool the masses into thinking the NWO is dead.
name those deals on world stage that was game changers in positive way for whole world that was done by putin regime?
U.S. benefits if no pipeline is ever built. Cheniere starts exporting U.S. natural gas by the end of the year. Natural gas is ridiculously cheap here, relative to the rest of the war.
Instead of Putin having leverage over Europe, U.S. increases its leverage.
Look for chaos in Syria to continue indefinitely.
World, not war. Freudian slip.
After the elections Kerry and the Ketchup queen can go back to having dinner with Assad and his wife.
This snap election talk is good for politics ( just as russia entertained supposed political syrian opposition ) and optics. If an election was held, Bashar Al-Assad ( Strong man Zerohedge? Getting your info from neo con monthly? ) would handily win, as he did months ago. His government is inclusive, and largely Sunni ( as are his wife and children ). The meme that he and a handful of "nusayri" alawites rule with an iron fist with the help of iranian troops is patent horseshit. SPeaking of horseshit, the tenuous nature of his "grip on power" is overblown by several orders of magnitude on zerohedge too.
Zabdani was freed, they are approaching palmyra, jir al shur's time is near, the "southern front" by the foreign terrorists is flopping. Latakia is going fine. The presence of more russian and Iranian advisors at minimum should help the stupid errors made by the SAA to not be repeated. It gets worse for the terrorists. Apparently numerous NATO countries have dismantled patriot batteries on the syrian turkish border. Add in that apparently several Mig 31s have been delivered to damascus. The borderlnad area, where ISIS enjoyed air cover by patriot missiles and turkish airforce planes just went up in smoke, now that the patriots are gone, and mig 31s can be scrambled. I eagerly await bombing runs in an area that was an insulated enclave for ISIS.
This "war" is turning into what it always was, a protracted campaign of terror. The terrorists are still focusing on things like stragically unimportant isolated airbases where they pour their resources in to trying to over run. That or packing cars full of explosives and blow them up wherever they can, or lob mortars.
Again circling around to the beginning, this snap election in truth is hollow, but is a nice political move in this bullshit game the west is playing. If there is an air presence ( and I pray there is ) then that tells you all you need to know. Speaking of convenient politically - They merely need to say they are there to fight ISIS and if anyone is against that, then the terrorists win - much like the fecal rantings of the west.
So which is it afterall zerohedge? Is Putin "abandoning" Assad as you have intimated many many times, or are they doubling down on the "strongman's" "Regime?"
Elections....Lol..., that's almost as funny as "markets" are today.
welll Kiev zio gov held elections didn't they??? how many in the east got to vote - zero
People in Donbass are regarded as sub-humans by the US-backed Kiev junta. Any wonder why they fight tooth and nail against those that plan to exterminate them?
"Check."
The world will never learn: You don't just go to the Middle East, stir up the hornets nest and leave. That place is designed to keep people forever.
Which is why the US military industrial complex loves the place. Permanent market for this products.
The problem is China and Russia are also there and always end up undercutting us at one tenth the cost. That place has turned into the worlds weapons proving ground with a billion peolpe walking downrange.
"In the end, the more likely scenario is, as we've always predicted, that the Assad regime falls and (very) shortly thereafter, US marines storm in to "liberate" Damascus at which point a puppet government will be installed - a puppet government which will coincidentally see the utility in allowing the Qatar-Turkey pipeline to be run through Syria. "
I'm not sure if that is the most likely scenario, and now direct involvement of Putin and Russian troops/warplanes makes it even less likely, imho. we'll see
Really?
Assad couldn't accept fair elections before the civil war and how many dead, but now he has seen the error of his ways?
Got to hand it to Putin once again for playing his hand like a boss
Really?
Hey geopolitcal genius, they already had an election in June 2014 and Assad won. DURING the civil war.
Of course you knew that already :-)
Elections are easy when you imprison and torture all opponents (nobody wins a 90% majority in real elections)
Assad is a member of the minority Alawites, and refused to budge to allow room for other groups
Not saying exterior forces have not played a large part in the conflict, but the spark for civil war was already present
You show your ignorance of this subject...
media dumb you down much?
I disagree
It is the average ZHer that is ignorant of the region
Via Wiki:
In 2011, Syria's population was 72-74% Sunni Muslim (59-60% Arabs, 9-11% Kurds and 2-3% Turkmen), other Muslims (including Alawites, Shia and Ismaili) made up 16% of the population, various Christian denominations made up 10-12% and finally, there were a few Jewish communities in Aleppo and Damascus.
And elections were a farce, Assad is a butcher like his father
Par for the course in the region
Now, instead of a typical ZH ad hominem attack, argue your point, whatever it might be
Assad is nothing like his father.
He is decent, reserved gentleman.
Syria was balanced secular far best country to live in ME, before planned outside aggression.
Common knowledge it was many peoples that lived together better than other ME...
Assad always had above 80% support, after outsiders started violence, even much of the original opposition
bonded against the outsiders...thus 90% realistict...also election was monitored.
Many Russians in Syria and I talk to Syrians over the years since this began.
Most ZH'rs appear aware these facts...
you are the slow obstinate one, with weak knowledge
"the vote did not take place in large parts of Syria under rebel control.[3] The areas under Kurdish militia control also did not allow voting"
Again via wiki
If neither rebel nor Kurdish held areas voted, thus the vote was restricted to areas held by Assad, what kind of election is this?
The kind that gets Assad a 90% majority.
Assad had his chance for an open and free vote BEFORE the war broke out, but he chose to muzzle the opposition instead.
"Those that make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable " JFK
Again not discounting the foreign intervention, but this pot was going to boil over eventually.
Downvotes in 3, 2, 1,... but still no cohesive counterargument
"what kind of election is this?"
The kind where takfiri "rebels" kill people for voting. You're a proper idiot.
Ballots and bullets don't mix - Who would have thunk?
You do realise you're making my point
Bueller, Bueller, has anybody seen a counterargument yet?
Sure he'd accept snap elections. Saddam always loved elections. Will they be free, fair and transparent? In the middle of a civil war?
"Free, fair and transparent?"
Do any elections fit those criteria? I don't think so. At least Assad fakes a real majority. Americans elect a president that receives less than 30% of the population choosing them (40%+ don't vote). And Americans have this weird two party system that is really a one party system, designed to keep power, just like China or Syria. Only difference is China and Syria are transparent about that, where the US lies to its people and pretends there is a real choice.
Saddam always loved elections.
----
If we are right now, to hold elections in Iraq, Saddam will win. This is despite the fact that he had been killed by foreign US-invaders.
I agree with the above response Putin would be hated by his own people
Highly doubt it unless you're delusional.
This polling center US regards as accurate: http://www.levada.ru/eng/
AmeriKan comparisons to Stalin and the USSR are bullshit.
The Russian liberals who want to sellout to the West are rightly seen as sellouts and thus are unpopular.
Great Idea...
Now let's see here... Get the UN to send supervisors in for a "free and fair" election process like the one last year in Ukraine...
Ensure proper voting rights for the uninvited guests (just like Obama and Congress has in the U.S.) of the last 4 years that are raping, pillaging and murdering...
Make sure that all the citizens that have fled to other parts of the Middle East and Europe for their safety are barred from casting ballots in that election...
And make sure that Diebold is in charge of the electronic voting booths and vote counting...
Yeah I see nothing but blue skies for Mr. Assad moving forward!
Well duh, 70% of the Syrian population would vote for Dr. Al-Assad.
Do the millions of reugees forced to flee the country to escape the Jihadists also get to vote?
Yes if they are allowed to. Syrian ex-pats voted (or tried to) in the 2014 vote.
Although that im an atheist Greek orthodox chuch has an unspoken future telling of a war of Russia vs Turkey of which in the very end west will storm and then Russia will back off turkey's dead body while this quite funny as it is, nowadays its a possible outcome if Turkey continues to be a puppet!
That's a prophecy over 50 years old by the way ;ppp
Its almost getting rediculously funny that its an actual possible scenario :ppp
This is not a prophecy but a history of WWI starting with Crimean war (1853–1856) and wars of independence in Balkans. Otherwise Turkey would be much smaller and Greece much closer to Russia.
"Include healthy opposition"? What are they going to do, set up polling places in Hungary?
encirclement by any other name is encirclement - vlad. what comes after the quatar pipeline? better to make your stand here than in moscow.
All this trite talk of proposed Qatari pipelines is exactly that. The Emir has received more gas pipeline proposals than he has gas to supply even under his 100 year plan (yes there actually is a 100 year plan). Furthermore, while pipelines are convenient (if militarily exposed) for delivery of gas from point A to point B, the seller is stuck for Customer B, which is why the Emir has built the world's largest collection of gas-to-liquids facilities (and a bunch of docks where gas tankers can fill up)... so he can say "fuck you!" as he pleases and sign contracts with higher paying customers as market conditions permit.
The Iranians on the other hand, are trying to build a pipeline through Syria, which they can't do while there is a war going on. Said four year old war started, of course, right after the Iranians, Iraqis and Syrians announced their pipeline. And where did ISIS pop up soon after that? All this works to the advantage of the Emir and his little gas to liquids Empire... particularly since he is basically selling/stealing IRANIAN gas, as the worlds largest gas field is shared by Iran and Qatar, and Iran is both under sanctions which prevent the construction of GTL facilities, and being cock-blocked with their pipeline plan.
The exact amount of gas Iranian that Qatar is pumping for its own profit can only be calculated by to the Ministry of Petroleum and/or ConocoPhilips - who then lied (actually they committed criminal perjury under SarBox - due the repeating the lie come earnings time). Moreover they made every PhD geologist wrote about how the field is less contiguous than previously presumed into a chump and geopolitical parody of Henry Boldget.
The little people in their tinfoil hats (Pepe included) have no business knowing why or how the US government and foreign governments directly and indirectly help big business, or overlook crimes by big business when the result would make big government's goals more difficult to achieve.
This is how the MIC and Middle East Foreign Policy actually work.
+1 btw, the FT on monday reported that ENI found a "supergiant" gasfield off Egypt, and will commence drilling in 2016. they talk about 30tn cubic feet or more
and this, if true, would make some part of this current mess less hot, then whatever would ship this new Egyptian gas could also ship Quatary gas to Europe
Water is just as important as gas in this Ghodo.In fact far more important for one party,
Israel.The gas is a smokes(gas)screen.
"Water is just as important as gas..."
...and guess who's long the Tigris-Euphrates? Turkey.
Moar supply would make it less hot, but since the US allowed KSA, Qatar and UAE to join the "big boys club" when NATO couldn't topple Qadaffi and they needed help pushing Mubarak out - everything in that neighborhood is moar hot. Fucking with your immediate neighbors and trading partners for your own gain is as old as the nation state, but the supra-regional scale of the new game is going to cause unforeseen headaches for eternity. I wouldn't want to be building a pipeline anywhere in MENA right now (unless its 100% OPM), and the forthcoming nuclear arms race in the region is just everything moar of a mess.
I used to think the British were the unchallenged masters of fucking up their previous domains as they retreated, now I'm not so sure.
same template, and probably exactly the same people pulling the strings.
Syria is actually a former French domain, and Paris not long ago was seen itching to land, and Washington was seen restraining the French
but if there is a supergiant field in the Med, in front of Egypt's coast... then all those investments (British, French, the Emir's) in liquefied gas shipment technology look suddently better, and the only part of a pipeline that is needed would be one from Egypt to the fields, under water, as far I can see (not much)
So Picot was English ?
Those tankers full of LNG have to go through Hormuz. Qatar won't settle for that risk. A land based solution is preferable.
This is much more geopolitical and anti Russia based than pipeline. Pipeline could be built now through Iraq or Iran straight to Turkey. Or through Jordan and Israel, and under the sea to Greece (Nord see pipeline shows how it is possible) albeit more expensive. The question is whether EU and US want to rely on Turkey, Iraq or Iran for gas transit? And why would a broken Syria be better? No good answers here, except we will save 5b on construction. The war costs way more.
Just wanna add, construction of this pipeline would take decades. Maybe only one decade without insurgents around, but more with one that will be created with Syria destruction.
This site was quick in proclaiming the fall of Assad a month ago and back then there were many who doubted that outcome. As you can see Putin is not yet ready to give up on Assad and while it may be difficult to hold the position as it is the cost for US and allied forces are getting increasingly out of control. (Not that war expenditure had ever mattered to the US taxpayer that much).
Saudi Arabia's situation in this is also detoriorating as its finances come under pressure being engaged in two wars on both ends of its borders.
Turkey is in open meltdown economically and politically as Erdogan tries to cement his power for good, which will only further increase the spiral of violence he kick-started 1-2 months ago.
In the end this is a game of who has the longer breath, in the meantime Europe gets flooded with mooaar migrants!
I don't see Putin intervening either. After all he appears to be a good chess player. And he remembers well what happened when USSR got into Afghanistan.
"if that pipeline gets built, it means Gazprom’s leverage over Europe is over and that’s bad news for Vladimir Putin and for Vladimir Putin’s personal money vault"
FOX is that you?
"We will even follow the US approved model that is being used in Turkey."
Iran is the regional powerbroker.
It will be Iran who decides whether or not Assad can survive or not.
For the good of the region, Saudi needs to be flattened.
When will someone bring the USA to account for all its crimes that are propagandized as "freedom fighting" bullshit?
Until justice is delivered, the world will continue to burn. Fuck the American government for creating the conditions for even more terrorism in the world, refugee crises and civil wars in the Middle East. They removed all the tyrants who were firmly opposed to the radical muslim extremists. Now we all have to deal with the fall out in one way or another.
Misdirection?
Seems to me that there's far more to this than a pipeline and it's all intertwined. For example Israel wants weakened neighbours, weakened European societies through multiculturalism, and then there are the European collectivists with a stiffy for "mixing of the races", the MIC that needs more orders, and God knows what else.
Example: by allowing all Syrians to come to Germany, Merkel kills two birds with one stone. These "migrants" are 95% young men, so we have (1) more non-whites in the door for racial mixing and (2) thousands of men of fighting age removed from the battlefield who could otherwise be conscripted by Assad.
“Last year, during the Arab revolutions, the EU missed a historic opportunity to begin weaving together the two sides of the Mediterranean.” - Peter Sutherland, UN migration commissioner, ex Goldman Sachs head, and traitor to his people.
The author is blind to the reality and buying the CIA media black op about another Russian invasion, this time in Syria as a gospel.
Is this ZH I know and love? Or MSM shit.
Why Putin gets involved? This is Lebanon/Beirut Arab summer stupid. This is destabilizing of Lebanon, 1.2 million of Syrian refugees and the loss of Assad financial assets there. This is Assad's cash for placating his cronies and Alawites cronies is running out. It is internal politics.
Assad is winning not only militarily but politically through his amnesty policies reducing number of Syrians fighting with ISIS and other groups to less that 10% practicality made it a war with the foreign enemy, proxy war with Saudis and the US. While he is an inept politician he galvanized the support just because there is literally no alternatives at this point.
Much better "fact based" analysis you can find.
https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/syrian-war-update/
Al-Assad would be gone by now if that was the idea.
Me thinks this "simmering" war in Syria has been kept warm for a purpose, till now. Now, TPTB are ready to exploit the Syrian "show" to its fullest.
Grab your popcorn, it's almost the Main Event.
How long before Chinese force joins Russian in a joint effort against ISIS?
Agree to the demands of the Western Oligarchs and their international business interests or perish. This pretty much sums up our foreign policy.
Saddam was elected too, (after the coup) and he won legetimately, it was Sadam or mullahs or emirs, same choice for Syria, mullahs or emir or endless war financed by Janet Yellen.
..probably 50 years or more.
Just like everything else going on in the Middle East this attempt to overthrow Assad is all about Israel and it's dream of replacing Gazprom as the energy supplier to Europe. The idea is to create a pipeline hub in Haifa in which Qatari and Saudi gas could then be routed through Turkey and then to Europe. Of course in order to do this it is necessary to control Syria.
If putin is willing to allow a political sentiment change toward an arab trans Syrian pipeline at this point in time, does this mean that his means of blocking the pipeline has shifted from a Syrian strategy to another strategy. This would remove the ever increasing pressure from the Syrian state prior to it's inevitable collapse.
The revolutionary flux in Turkey has recently increased. Suddenly erdogan is under increasing fire and was there not a Russian/Turk deal proposing an alternate russian pipeline through Turkey terminating in Greece? Maybe now the russian blockage to the qatar pipeline is pivoting to Turk politics/cooperation rather than the ill fated Syrian obstinance to date.
Regardless, the Syrian people have paid one hell of a price in the evil that has befallen them simply over their geographic location.
Hope they vote for Putin as their next leader.
OK Tyler,
You clearly have no evidence of your allegedly "infamous" imaginary Qatari pipeline, so it appears you've just Photoshopped a regional map there, with where Tyler wants everyone to think a non existent pipeline project would go.
Pretty pastels, btw, very stylish.
So that's it? Everyone is supposed to 'believe' and 'accept' your word, that it's all like, for 'reals' on that basis? No evidence at all, and a dodgy self-made 'map'? (I must admit that for most people here, that would be more than enough, how many other times have you done it?).
I'll take this as defacto confirmation that you have no idea whatsoever what you're talking about with regard to any Qatari pipeline construction 'plan' through Syria, or anywhere else ... well, unless the FSB, or another org, fed you a tale/rumor that you don't want to 'source'.
Otherwise you have simply pulled the entire cockamamie story out of your butt, zh's very own psyop. And are going all-in with the bullshit story anyway.
Someone wants that story accepted, because it sure isn't true, so the question now is, who put you up to it?
Making progress ... follow the money.
Original post: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-03/flashpoint-white-house-confirms...
You know what i find interesting is that USA having caused these problems in the M.E that has led to the migrant crisis is sitting back very comfortable knowing they are effectively shielded(due to the thousands of miles of water) from the mess that is currently facing europe. Talk about leaving someone to hold the bag.