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Guest Post: China’s Worst Nightmare - The US’s Oil Weapon
Submitted by Tingbin Zhang, founder of the independent Chinese economic think tank "Zhonghua Yuan Institute"
China’s Worst Nightmare - The US’s Oil Weapon
China’s islanding building on the four-mile-long and two-mile-wide Subi Reef in the South China Sea has put The US in a tight spot. To protect its ally from China’s aggression, The US will be left with little choice but to constrain China by military means. However, the US won't directly engage China in the war in the foreseeable future, because the US dominates China with its superior naval and air force and the only way for China to level the playing field is to apply nuclear weapons. The nuclear nature of Sino-American warfare will make both the world no.1 and no.2 economy the fallen giants.
So there is a possibility that The US might use its oil weapon instead to strike at the core of China’s weakness - it’s huge dependence on oil import. At the moment, China imports 55% of its oil, almost half of which sails from countries in the Persian Gulf?which accounts to 5.3 Million Barrels per Day and is around 75% of Saudi Arabia’s production. As a matter of fact, China’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil has gradually grown in line with its rapid-increasing demand for oil. Right now, China has achieved the equivalent of the peak of U.S. Oil import dependence and is not slowing down a bit. The single largest source of China's crude oil imports is Saudi Arabia.
China’s state oil reserves of 475,900,000 barrels (75,660,000 m3) plus the enterprise oil reserves of 209,440,000 barrels (33,298,000 m3) will only provide around 90 days of consumption or a total of 684,340,000 barrels (108,801,000 m3).
Meanwhile, This US is inching towards the energy independence. With the technological breakthroughs of shale gas and tight oil, the US has started an energy revolution: U.S. crude oil production has increased by 50% since 2008. With that increase, as well as more efficient cars, oil imports have come down from their high of 60% in 2005 to 35% today—as low as in 1973. With domestic production and gasoline mileage still increasing, imports will continue to decrease. It’s also impressive that U.S. natural gas production has increased by nearly 33% since 2005, and shale gas has gone from 2% of output in 2000 to 44% today.
As of 2013, the United States is the world's second largest producer of crude oil, after Saudi Arabia, and second largest exporter of refined products, after Russia.According to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy, the U.S. has surpassed Russia as the biggest oil and natural-gas producer in 2014. While looking at total energy, the U.S. was over 70% self-sufficient in 2008. In May 2011, the US became a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
With the newly acquired oil might, the US can trick Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz without any economic damage onto the US itself, in order to strike a severe blow to China’s fragile economy. First, The US congress will reject the Iran nuclear deal; and second, The US will give the nod to Isreal’s air strike against Tehran’s nuclear facilities. And then, Iran will retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Once it’s blocked, China will scramble to meet its oil demands. In China, the inflation will jump up; the China yuan will plummet, and an economic meltdown will come to bear.
China will succumb to the US’s might of oil weapon to save itself from political, economic and social collapse. The oil weapon will achieve what the military can’t achieve at less cost. This scenario is something China should be really worried about.
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No shit Sherlock,thats the whole point of the Silk Roads.
What a load of old shite.
So Israel bombs Iran and Iran retaliates against Israel by blocking Hormuz??
How does that hurt Israel? Or their U.S. sponsors??
Iran would retaliate by giving tanks and helicopters to Hamas.
And If the straits of Hormuz EVER hurt China, you can bet your last button that 3.5 million Chinamen will turn up, double pronto, to do Moses 2.0.
Any 'event' that poses a risk to China will draw a response, they can project now, the only way to beat China is to some how shift them onto a downward glide path.
The US must not do anything to rile the Chinese dragon.
This OP is complete crap. Maybe, at this POINT IN TIME, US production is up, but the physics of frack wells means that without CHEAP (i.e. FREE) capital to drill ever more wells, production is going to crater. These businesses are high rolling on OPM and do not have a real business model.
Not a good foundation for a "weapon".
Regards,
Cooter
Wake up....that time line would be 30 min about the time it takes a icbm to travel.
SHTF QUICK....
Me thinks the Author is long oil futures and is getting stops and margin calls. He's desperate.
Horse shit
U.S. uses oil weapon. Then China says "Well, now the Yuan is backed by 20% gold, so your dollars are pointless"
Checkmate, game - China.
Who the FUCK wrote this?
Aside from the lousy analysis, the piece reads like something written by a high school sophomore.
It took multiple attempts just to get through the first paragraph.
The Americans control the global oilfields. Now they have Iran in their pockets. Obama is a genius. All white men were created in a basement by the devil. World to your mother.
Oh great... Do what we did to Japan cutting exports to them way back when.
No wonder the Chinese Navy is scouting out the Aleutian Islands now!
They'll skip the mistake of bombing Pearl Harbor and Midway to set up missile launch sites a lot closer to us.
That plus they already captured Vancouver basically.
So they and Russia can take Alaska (back) for its oil
This is also why China has been so aggressive in potential off shore oil fields near Vietnam and Japan.
Expect a massive reactivation of US military bases in Alaska and the Pacific very soon.
PB.. a few folks need the /sarc to get the message.
But hmm.. let’s see…
If China needed a reliable source of supply for oil and NG instead of the US manipulated Gulf States, where might it look?
It would be nice if that supplier had vast reserves, had a common border and was not directly in the US’s sphere of influence.
I wonder where such a supplier who could obviate China’s need for Mid-East oil might be found ?
wasn't the US blockade of oil supply to Japan what ultimately triggered Japan to stage attack of Pearl Harbor?
this article is a SUPER shit
1, more than 90% of China energy consumption is coal, China has coal reserves of 1000+ years, not 50 or 100 years. current capacity more than 4 billion ton per year, usage only 2+ billion ton, (that's why coal price collapse)
2, China can ban usage of car, will significantly reduce oil consumption, China has railway and subway system for citizen, lots of cities has subway
3, China is one of the largest shale gas/oil country, no one develop it because China has much cheaper coal, coal, coal, remember coal forever! forget about Middle East and Saudi Arabia!
Wrong. Everyone knows they will never allow redemtion, or their gold would disappear quickly. Their gold is just the price of admission to the club.
Actually, why would the two hurt each other? They both are owned by the FED banking system:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/SECRS/2008/March/20080303/ICP-2008108/ICP-...
Who proof-reads this drivel?!
This article is riddled with spelling and grammar mistakes (okay, fair enough if the writer is not a native speaker, but isn't there anyone at ZH to quickly run through this?) but additionally it makes many vague assumptions and logic short-cuts in order to drive home someone's twisted opinion.
WHY and HOW would Iran be "tricked" by the US into closing off the Straight of Hormuz in order to shaft China?
Memo to Cornflakes:
No Jews In China
"...So there is a possibility that The US might use its oil weapon instead to strike at the core of China’s weakness - it’s huge dependence on oil import..."
Japan was reluctant to get involved in WWII and didn't really care to antagonize the U.S.
This didn't sit well with the banksters, who needed a war in the Pacific. Solution? Oil embargo on Japan, with it's huge dependence on oil import. The Japanese fleet was weeks away from completely running out of fuel, and chose to attack Pearl Harbor so they could seize Phillipine and Indonesian oil fields. The U.S. knew Japan would be forced into WWII by an oil embargo, so that's exactly what they did.
Smedley, come back!
China has enough ICBM's and SBLM's to take out all the major cities in America. Nuclear war with China would not end well for America.
A nuke war would not end well for anyone! Only two cities need fall to crash the western financial system, NYC and DC, and that may happen through self inflicted wounds before any enemy dares attack the US outright.
America will fall by internal bleeding not some external hobgoblin, IMHO.
Too bad China's friend Russia is so far from them or else they could get oil from Russia.
Why do you think ZATO is trying to stir shit up in Kazak.. Kazakhis... Kazakhstan?
http://www.japanfocus.org/data/oil.gas.lines.gif
That's from a longish but fascinating article in 2007 from the Asian-Pacific Journal. Nothing has changed much besides the Leviathan and Zohar fields, and the U.S. is still as butt-hurt as ever about Russia screwing up ZATO's evil scheme at world domination:
Russia, Iran and Eurasian Energy Politics
While the rest of you guys are bagging on the author I think he offers up an interesting scenario. However I do think he is wrong about how it will play out. If they are smart the Iranians will close the straight and then invite the Chinese fleet to come as “peace keepers.” In exchange the Chinese would be granted exclusive access to the oil exports from the Persian Gulf the Chinese would be obliged to accept the deal to prevent an energy shock domestically. The Iranians would gain a new powerful ally that would make them untouchable. The Saudis and other oil exporting countries of the Persian gulf would have little choice but to comply as well. therefore this US covert op would not only fail but would horribly backfire. Giving the Chinese exclusive access the oil of the Persian Gulf States.
Chinese mary jane must be strong if this guy thinks the US is on the way to energy independence through tight oil extraction. The US consumes 20 million barrels a day and produces less then 10 million, and thats with the 30% increase in production from shale which will evaporate in short order.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/11/13/us-oil-production-e...
That was soo 2 years ago... Remember what happened ever since ?
Cornflakes..... US producing more than it imports is not the same thing as ..... US producing more than it consumes
But the US Congress will approve the Iran Nuclear Deal???
Stick to screenplays me thinks?
"The US will be left with little choice but to constrain China by military means."
Are you freakin crazy. Why don't you offer em Lloyd Blankfein and to shut down Goldman Sachs instead.
The US
You mean the NWO that has taken over the US.
Got it in one, the ultimate penalty, pull out Goldman Sachs.
That will teach them.
Pretty shitty analysis.
Worse than shitty, myopic septic...lol.
"Zhonghua Yuan" wouldn't happen to be Chinese for "oilprice.com"?
OMG, that is funny shit! Greens for you (and I never greenie humor/sarcasm)!
Regards,
Cooter
No shit. The Corker bill that the Repubs passed made it impossible to block whatever deal Obama came up with.
Typical of the Repubs to betray their base to benefit the Chamber of Commerce.
And we don't owe the Phillipines shit. They told us to get our bases out of their country. Fuck them.
( there was a volcano involved in those negotiations)
Not sure how the above plays into game theory with the US petro dollar hegeonmy lying in the balance. Pushing Iran farther East is not a good long term either and may have unseen financial consequences bearing more risk than China eventually asserting its future/forgone place in the world order.
The US is not very good at forecasting unforseen consequenses.
it's not very good at the rather easily foreseen ones either.
french lost in indochina: start a war in vietnam.
soviets lost in afghanistan: start a war there.
japan tries crony capitalism, zombie banks and monetizing debt to combat deflation, doesn't work after twenty years: try it again
Or, there's always coal.
Sorry Obama and manmade global warming hysterics everywhere ;-)
http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/index.cfm?view=reserves
well yeah but you can't drive cars with coal in foreseeable future
Well no...lol...no ones talking about Chevy Chase dropping a few lumps of coal into the tank of the ole Truckster 5000 and taking off on a family vacation.
I would point you to any number of uses for coal, starting with the Bergius and Fischer–Tropsch processes for coal, it's a known science...Hitler basically ran his war machine with it.
Regards ;-)
yeah sure. and look how Hitler ended up
cars on fuel is like gold on tungsten. go there, you have it!
Electric cars are coal-fired. The future is coal.
"cough cough".
yeah, steampunk revolution is around the corner!
In the absence of fusion reactors, the spice must flow...
Are you saying I should order a urine recycler from Amazon?
Follow the money and the energy agenda.
Liquid Flouride Thorium Reactors.
The Thorium IS IN THE COAL that we aren't supposed to burn anymore.
Extracting the Thorium and using it for clean safe nuclear instead of burning the coal and throwing the Thorium away is the plan.
The campaign against coal is designed to collapse the price of the mines/reserves to allow it to be scooped up on the cheap by the usual suspects..
...& right on cue:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-01/george-soros-betting-long-term-...
Been watching that too, the propaganda, the fiat debt bondage, the regulatory intimidation...and then, swoop in to gather up real assets.
"The Thorium IS IN THE COAL that we aren't supposed to burn anymore."
Burn coal first - extract the ashes; about 10-fold enrichment of Th
I'm sorry but ww3 is not to be averted-too much money to be made. Buckle up bitches
Seriously did they forget to put / Sarc after this?
A rather weak analysis! How about some mentioning of Chinese saturation missile strikes! All US carrier groups in China Seas will soon explain to the fish the wisdom of engaging an enemy with more missiles than the Americans can count!
I'll try to contain my glee at seeing San Francisco vaporized if you will.
Goddamnit, nmewn! How many times have I told you the real problem out here is LA? SF is bad, but LA is the home of the Great American Satans, the Kardashians, Fred Flintstone and the gay purple Teletubby. Well, mayhaps the Coastal Range will divert the flash and blast for me.
http://www.nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
Forget about SF versus LA for now, just send the blast to wherever Goodell is. Go Pats!
Now there's some handy information knuk's, with a Dong Feng-5 detonation you could just stick your arm (with a hot dog on a stick) up over a peak and have lunch without it costing you nothing but the price of a weiner.
Of course, timing is everything ;-)
Since when ZH allows garbage post?
This looks like one of those garbage propaganda articles payed by the CIA.
Tylers tend to test their readers' sense of humour every now and then... just enough so they'd know it didn't change.
I dunno, it seems to me that the Iranians wouldn't have too much trouble deciding to let the Chinese tankers through...
;-D
ZH prints some pretty silly stuff sometimes. If this is what comes out of Chinese think tanks, they must be filled with used motor oil or something worse.
Try lead paint or poisoned milk instead.
Does anyone remember how the WW II started? Oil blockades by the U.S. Making Japan invade Indonesia in search of the oil they lacked? Morons.
No it did not! World War 2 had already started by then.
WW2 started because the German minority in Poland were being killed and mistreated.
Hitler tried to negotiate peacefully with Poland but Poland would not back down.
Therefore, Hitler was forced to liberate them using the German army. He wasn't trying to take over the world like the jewish propaganda machine would like us to believe.
https://youtu.be/mroDJvhBwWs?t=8m35s
"He wasn't trying to take over the world like the jewish propaganda machine would like us to believe."
Nazi's were not about peace.
In WWII Germany and Japan might really have been after Cuba and not oil or other natural resources. Do you have any idea how great looking your average young woman in Cuba looks? It's enough to make you sit up and beg for buttermilk. But you can't tip your hand early in the game. You have to use indirection like trying to go through Poland and France first.
If I can ever come up with my own army, I know right where I'm heading and I'm bringing lots of cocoa butter.
Even Kennedy got a wild hair about a conquest of Cuba before coming back to his senses.
What kind of fucking drugs are you on?
The US is hardly self-sufficient in oil. It imports 7.5 million barrels a day as does China.
Closing the Straits of Hormuz will hurt China and India more than the US. But that would be a desperate ploy by the Nobel Pize Winner with unknown consequences.
When I saw the words "energy independence" in the same sentence as "US" I immediately stopped reading as I knew it was a work of fiction.
I have an alternate scenario that is every bit as authentic and possible as the one in this article:
1. Zardoz of the planet YerAnus attacks planet earth.
2. The Cat Women on the Moon come to our defense.
3. Zardoz gets cable and ends up in a ditch. (so don't get cable)
4. In all the confusion of the Chinese trying to marry the Cat Women, the U.S. uses its new nano-oil-weapon to change all oil in China into mayonaise. Then the entire Chinese communist ledership dies of cat scratch fever.
5. China collapses and the U.S. rules the world forever.
This is very likely to happen - really.
But no access allowed to the forbidden planet called federal reserve.
"With the technological breakthroughs of shale gas and tight oil..."
This statement lets you know that this guy is clueless.
Shale oil and fracking have been around for over 50 years, they may have gotten a bit more efficient but the process is and always will be expensive and has low net energy gain.
The technological breakthroughs were in financialization, in other words borrowed money.
That said I still think we should go all hiroshima on their ass.
Was this Article suppose to be a test?
Mr Zhang, like many commentators on oil, continue to think that the US has a chance to reach oil independence. This is highly unlikely because of the high decline rates with shale oil. For this reason, any oil disruption will cause oil prices to spike globally. Anyone who thinks that oil prices will remain low in the US, while they spike internationally is likely wrong. Thus, if Iran attempts to close the Straight of Hormuz, the US will be extremely aggressive to reopen it.
The country with the leverage is China and not the US. This leverage is from their ownership of US debt. Once they dump their debt, Japan will join them (or else be left holding the bag) and it will likey be game over for the US's standard of living.
One final point, when does China and Saudi Arabia make a deal to trade oil in Yuan? In my opinion that development is inevitable and coming soon. That will hurt the US dollar and US economy immensely, as the US dollar loses its international currency appeal.
thanks for clearing this out. the article has been ridiculed here in the commants by many but you're the first one to actually explain why.
one thing I'd like to add is that US apparently does plan to use oil as a weapon against China: that's why TAPI pipeline in Afghanistan is being built (so US can decide if it goes to China or India or elsewhere) and why US acts as mercenary for Saudis, why Iran and Russia are targeted by hysterics and warmongers. Washington apparently figured out recently bashing Iran won't do much to China at the moment so they picked Russia in another futile attempt to sabotage their cooperation. but as with everything what current administration has done, the effects are quite opposite to what was intended.
as one oil analyst said, shale is not a revolution, its a retirement party
your last two sentences sum the world up
Nothing to see here. Move on.
This article is summary shite.
ahh, nevermind
Oh dear Tingbin Zhang....epic fail.
who needs oil when you have coal?
There is a big problem with this analysis. China has a very large neighbor that produces oil and would be very happy to send their production directly to China and settle the accounts in their own currency. A direct transaction such as that would have an interesting effect on the global oil market as well as the USD.
Duplicate post
Did someone forget about Russian oil?
WOW! I have seen a few poor articles on ZH over the years but this one takes the cake. Go back to building iPhones, dude.
Just put more Chinese Babes on those islands. That would be the best strategy.
This article highlights why it is important to see and understand Zion, and Zion as the fifth-column occupier of the American country. Without such an understanding of Zion, one cannot properly analyze what is, and will happen in, and to, America, the west, the Middle-East and various other parts of the world.
The American country is a colony of Zion, and Zion is departing it for a new base of operation within the shores of Europe. As they leave, they are trying to secure control of as many of the natural resources here as possible. The two biggies are energy and agriculture (food production), both large presences in the American "heartland."
The value of the resource rich "heartland" is why Zion has fostered a neocon and evangelical Christian support base there. It also explains the reason for the shifting of the DC US' resources and geographic political center to Texas--Texas will one day soon be a fascist independent nation controlling the "heartland."
The independent nation of Texas will control "heartland" resources, and also serve as a buffer against Chinese dominance, and/or occupation, of the west coast.
As for China and Iran, Zion prefers to destroy Iran, and control the Middle-East, than risk and waste resources trying to thwart the Chinese in the South China Sea. Challenging the Chinese in the South China Sea is a losing proposition even if somehow a victory is attained. Removing Iran from the stage in the Middle-East, and securing control of the resources there is much more doable, and has a bigger payoff for Zion.
Zion's priorities are: Building up their new base of plunder and violence in Europe, controlling the Middle-East and the Middle-East's resources via Israel, and maintaining control over as many of the vast resources in their American colony's "lower-48" as possible.
Additionally, Zion desires not to leave a viable rival behind in the American country, and will destroy most of the military capability here as they depart. This has already begun, but will be finalized in one last use of the DC US military in another spasm of war in the Middle-East against Iran. Zion will then substitute a civilian military-like force, the ReadyReserve (Think the SA and SS.), and a much smaller military in Texas, for the defunct DC US military.
Zion is a scheme, not an ethnicity..
Der Furher called, your death's head emblem came in and your SS uniform is freshly pressed.
The Chinese are the Jews of the Orient. So add a billion or so to the ranks of Zion. The Chinese in SE Asia are thought to have divided loyalties.
Israel does military deals with China. That should be all the proof you need.
You are blinded by hate. The zionists are tiny, much smaller than emerging populations coming out of the first stages of development from poverty into a slightly wealthier lives. The last thing any of these people care about is zionism, or Israel, or jew blah-blahs. People in Asia could not give a flying crap about jews, or zionism. All that crap will be displaced by a complete lack of interest, and a lack of knowledge or concern about any of it, in coming decades, as Israel simply does not matter to any of them. At best they reconfigure that Israel may be a vector for stealing Western defense tech secrets. i.e. they know they can't be trusted with secrets.
Don't think they are a 'strategic' think tank. More like a sheltered workshop.
Very flawed analysis and bad math.
Let's run the numbers. China reserves are 684 Mb. China imports about 6 Mb/day. Half of it comes from the Gulf so we are talking about 3 Mb/day at risk. Assuming all other factors constant the China's reserves (gov+corp) would last 684/3=228 days (almost 8 months). Not 90 days as the article states.
The oil will reprice to reflect the supply/demand imbalance. There will be a spike in price. However, the Gulf is only a decreasing part of the pool of exporters and there are plenty of oil exporters waiting for it to happen: Nigeria, Angola, Canada, Russia, Venezuela etc.
China has been preparing for this eventuality for a long time so they can address the supply by increasing imports from these exporters. They have political nd economic leverage over most of these exporters (not Canada though). This alone may solve the problem. They can increase imports from Russia by: pipe, ship or even train.
If they use oil for energy generation they can switch to alternate sources: gas, coal, nuclear, solar, etc.
Lastly on the supply side - they can increase the rate of pumping from their domestic wells. This can be risky in a long term but it has been done by many countries before.
On the demand side:
Oil is 20% of China's energy. Hence the Gulf oil is about 5% of China's energy. Not very big deal that I am sure they can remedy by switching to alternates.
They can restrict private car driving (like USA in 70s) based on the license plate or even color. They can restrict the government fleet the same way.
In conclusion: China can easily remedy the shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz and the direct impact on the China's economy will be minimal or none. Other, smaller countries may be in bigger trouble and this can impact the world economy. So there may be a secondary impact via the world economy.
On the geopolitical side this shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz does not make sense. The beneficiary of it will be Russia. Russia is much bigger concern to USA than China at his point of time. This would not make sense to Washington at all. The current scenario is much better: RuSSia crapping out due to low oil prices (Iran too as a bonus) and China is crapping out as all pyramids/bubbles there beginning to fold. Nothing else needs to be done: just keep it going, grab a coke and popcorn and watch the show to unfold. I guess the Chinese are already trying to blame all their ills on the evil Americans.
"They can restrict private car driving (like USA in 70s) based on the license plate or even color. They can restrict the government fleet the same way."
In 1979, odd or even plate number determined which days one could buy gasoline. Unless one normally filled their tank every day, it did not restrict driving.
I stand corrected! Thank you.
The effect of this restriction would be similar to what I said originally - restricting the fuel usage (maybe to lesser degree).
They can also restrict driving.
Like the US financial rigging it wont last. The US is achieving these gas outputs by destroyng its environment, water tables etc. China has Russian oil / gas options now. Naval ships are very vulnearable today to powerful missiles.
Who wrote this silly piece? US think tank intel?
Bullshit! China has already plenty og oil from Russia and venezuela is preparing to provide even more. The USa will need to fins real money, soon, to pay for the oil it imports.
Is this guy a highschool analysis, or what? If not, your geo-political strategy is very, very, old news. In fact Pepe Escobar has researched your analysis as far back as May 12, 2009!
Have you any ideal how super-powers work?
Please read this quick concise essay by the greatest geo-political journalist of our tyme!!! -- and, come back when you grow up?
Ref: http://www.alternet.org/story/139983/pipeline-istan%3A_everthing_you_need_to_know_about_oil%2C_gas%2C_russia%2C_china%2C_iran%2C_afghanistan_and_obama
Ps. I could bring you up to date on the covert proxy wars regarding the Ukraine, Turkey, Libya, and Iran via Karachi/ Quetta,...?
Needless to say Qatar has to float its LNG via Shell.
Update: Natural gas is primarily methane and is abundant in every country in the world, and for that matter the main consumption of oil is used in automobiles but in years come it's byproucts will be it main use. Auto's will run on natgas which is without a doubt in siberia/arctic, Indian, Pacific, Atlantic, Mediterranean / Caribbean, and in Alaska's thousand lakes like a spasti`spume of pellucidity gaseous bubbling volatile crude just a stones throw off shore. Think the Bermuda Triangle mysteries?
Maybe it's an essay by little George Bush or better yet by one of his skilled speech technicians.
As if tactical nukes aren't already being used on the regular...
Zzzzzzzzzz... another sleepy article.
Are you crazy? Israel bomb Tehran?? Lol!
Who funds this Zhonghua yuan Prostitute?
The argument that the U.S. could hurt China by disrupting Middle East oil supplies relies on the untrue meme that the U.S. is approaching energy independence. The U.S. consumes about 19 million barrels a day, about 7-8 million of which is imported; while the amount imported has decreased, it will likely never go down much further--except due to demand destruction--as the shale 'miracle' has about run its course because of the end of cheap credit and it's over-leveraged existence; not to mention how quickly shale plays are depleting. The entire premise here is way off base...
Maybe the onion is upping their game a bit?
Article was actually written by Hu Flung Poo of the We We Dong Institute and was edited by Ho Li Sheet. . . . .
When it comes to money, people bend and break. The US has played this game before. That's how they ended up pushing the world away. I can hear it now: US to Saudi Arabia: "Don't sell China any oil". Sauds: "But it brings in billions in income we need!" Saudis to US: "Will you buy the oil instead?" US: Well, no, we don't have any manufacturing anymore. Just fuel efficient and electric cars. But we're the US, so you have to listen to us and do as we say. Saudis: ?
Day dreaming.
With the newly acquired oil might, the US can trick Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz without any economic damage onto the US itself . . .
This statement in and of itself is a total crock. "With no damage to the US itself"?? Give me a break!! What about the pesky unforseen circumstances that always seem to pop up when brilliant "strategists" like this guy plan something like this, and their "plan" always seem to totally blow up in their face?? In the end they always have an excuse . . . or someone else to blame for their fuck up. And guess who pays the ultimate price for their bullshit? It sure isn't the clowns in D.C. or on Whale Street that's for sure.
Interesting article. If this is the intention I just hope the Chinese people get a decent system and leaders in place. I like the Chinese people that I have met and worked with and would be sadden if their people suffered. They have suffered for decades under the CCP, hopefully this would end the suffering.
The Chinese 'suffered' under a hundred years of Western colonialism and Japanese aggression - the CCP brought them out of that and have made the country great again and restored the pride of its people. You are SO wrong.
Before you talk about the Chinese suffering, you should spend some time there. BTW, Mao Zedong died in 1976. Most of his policies and programs were cancelled or reversed in the next 2 years. China has not been Communist since 1978. They have private property, freedom to travel, private enterprise, foreign businesses in China, etc. They do not fiit anybody's definition of Communism . They use the term "socialist with Chinese characteristics".
The overwhelming majority of Chinese citizens approve of their leaders and believe they are making the right decisions. In America, about 33% make this claim. China has a decent system and good leaders.Almost all Chinese agree they are better off than they were 10 or 20 years ago. America is going backwards.
Is this the exceptional planning of our exceptional thinkers? Do these exceptional thinkers understand unintended consequences?
A nation of exceptional stupid sheeple expect exceptional victories?
China is way ahead of this. First prototype Thorium reactor by 2020...........then hundreds built by 2030.
Clean, cheap energy for both electricity and liquid hydrocarbons.
Pollution - gone
Petrodollar - GAME OVER
Middle East - who cares anymore?
China - New economic superpower with every unit of GDP baceked by cheap units of energy.
Any nation that does not follow the same path will get eaten alive China's energy superiority that
comes from the economic advantage.
china, superiority? Ha
What if they are going to mine the ocean floor and all the stuff about power grab is wrong?
As a matter of national security, I think the US is foolish for pulling its own oil out of the ground. Politicians and others (oil biz, nationalists, etc.) talk about the need for oil independence. I don't get it. As long as you leave oil in the ground below you, you're not dependent on foreign oil. You're simply choosing to purchase it from foreigners, until you can't. Then you switch to your own oil. When you run out of your own oil is when you're truly dependent on foreign oil. Personally, I would want to be the last place on the planet to have oil. I wouldn't squander it.
fat stupid americans need to stop fucking with facebook, espn, and prime time tv.. and learn how to farm and generate/engineer their own energy systems, while they still have viable infrastructure, and financial assets in place... or they will end up as irrellevant as the middle east in 10 years
Who writes this shit and why does it get posted here?
The megalomaniacs running this country forget their duty. Who cares what they do overseas? We need to mind our own business.
I have traded oil alot and this is a perfectly good conspiracy theory that probbly will never come to fruitation....
Unless of course, it is right?
The action to twart the issue of China's domainance in the South China Sea is just the opposite of what is happening. ovomit is doing absolutely nothing about it. ovomit is in fact ensuring that Iran will eventually have a nuclear bomb and the means to tarket other countries with it. The treaty ensures that we will protect Iran from an attack by Irsael. The treaty gives Iran some $150 billion to foment even more terrorism to the countries in the Middle East, Africa and beyond. On top of that, Iran will be able to sell their oil into the international markets earning billions a month to accelerate the above.
Forget the South China Sea, we will have our hands full a couple of years from now when Iran puts the above into high gear, takes over Iraq and threatens Saudi Arabia and the other Arab and African oil producing countries to do whatever the fuck they want them to do.
Given that our armed forces is being cut back to pre WWII size over the next several years, we will hardly be in a position to do anything about Iran let alone whatever the hell China wants to do wherever the hell they want to do it.
But, yeah, it was nice job by the author spit balling about the impossible . . .
Your comment is about as uninformed and full of ignorance as the author's article. The two of you should partner on another forum.
Because Roosevelt's oil embargo of Japan worked so well...
china sure PRODUCES alot of electric motors. i can design a emotor in my macbook, send cad files to china and have my ideal spec motor dropped shipped anywhere x1 x1000 x1million. i can visualize them switching out of alot of their oil dependency while i surf socal.. im sure they are doing a much better job of this. they are opulently importing as much as they want.. but if austerity hits them and they HAVE to switch over to electric. they have everything in place to do so.
this oil weapon may be soon obsolete
China wil just buy it from Russia
what
If I was China I'd go for electric cars but maybe this is to simple. Avoids pollution and allows a friendly please go play with yourselves to the rest of the world.
When will I read the first analysis that properly compares the value of energy in oil to the energy that can be harvested at almost zero marginal cost from renewables.
Tingbin Zhang, - - He 's a f^%$ING Tingbin allright __what a wanker
Why was this STUPID article given airtime.
"With the newly acquired oil might, the US can trick Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz without any economic damage onto the US itself, in order to strike a severe blow to China’s fragile economy. First..."
At which point of your story do the elfs come in, Tingbin Zhang ?
The US ( and elsewherre) shale industry just collapsed due to low oil prices.
There is a plenty amount of oil and gas for the next 100 years (and more).
Oil prices go up when there is a lower demand ?
And if oil prices do rise.... China will be the only one which pays the premium ?
This article is stupid. Besides other possibilities China has, it somehow disregards the alliance of Russia and China. If China needs more oil, it always has Russia for that. That is why even Kissinger said that bringing China and Russia together was the hugest mistake of the USA foreign policy. And, accordingly, China has been increasing its import of oil from Russia and decreasing import from Saudi Arabia and others.
Now, during the recent Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, besides many other deals between Russia and China, also a deal about another oil pipeline from Russia was mentioned. As long as China has Russia, it will never lack any oil. You can also add S-400 and many other advanced technologies, which Russia is increasingly more willing to give to China and you can see, why bringing Russia and China together will be remembered as the beginning of the "game-over" for the USA (even such people as Kissinger realize that already).
"Moscow and Beijing are negotiating an increase in Russian oil supplies to China", said the chairman of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Wang Yilin.
"China currently imports 15 million tons of crude oil from Russia through a pipeline. Now we are working on building a separate pipeline to increase the supply of crude oil to China,” he said.
When you deal with an infestation of rats, you don't just kill a few and hope the rest go away.
Scorched Earth, it's the only way. Burn it all.
Sounds like rubbish to me, firstly the US imports daily 9.213mill bbl, way more oil than China's 5.66mill bbl, Russia exports 4.7mill bbl, so Russia could supply 80% of China's oil needs greatly reducing the reqirement from the Middle East. I don't see a problem with China getting the remaining 20% from whereever it can. Secondly, oil producting states want Chinese goods, so they are not about to cut off trade.
Exactly. Also China have way more friends with oil than US. Article is BS.
The biggest "fear" of China is a breakdown of its relationship with Russia. There is enough available cheap oil in Russia to satisfy Chinese needs while the exploration for offshore Chinese oil & gas continues. Soon, China will make its gold backed currency and reliance on direct currency settlements using the Yuan to further marginalize the U.S. This is a chess game where the checkmate is rapisly approaching.
Sorry for the spelling error. -- Correction follows..
The biggest "fear" of China is a breakdown of its relationship with Russia. There is enough available cheap oil in Russia to satisfy Chinese needs while the exploration for offshore Chinese oil & gas continues. Soon, China will make its gold backed currency and reliance on direct currency settlements using the Yuan to further marginalize the U.S. This is a chess game where the checkmate is rapidly approaching. -- On a related note --- The U.S. needs to turn Russia into a close friend if China is going to be controlled via international policy. Even the 'friendship' with Russia would have to occur very quickly to avoid the threat of China becoming energy independant within the next ten years. Current U.S. policy is really self-defeating.
The only reason the elitist leaders in China would ever have to start a war is if the current economic environment in China is put out of balance and the Chinese people rise up against the leadership.
To prevent this, the Chinese leadership will feel compelled to create another enemy to blame for the problems inside China. Winning or losing a war will be meaningless to the leadership ... as long as they can stay in power.
As usual, it will be the people who will suffer.
Similarly, as the elitist, so called, leaders in the west come under more pressure for their corruption and incompetence they will create new enemies, where there should be done. The new enemies will allow them to maintain power with the "small" sacrifice (to them) of the futures and lives of your children. We have already seen this with Bin Laden, the Taliban, Al Qaeda, Saddam, Gadaffi, Somalian Rebels, Assad and now ISIS. These are one false distraction after another.
"Don't pay attention to the prison we are putting you into, concentrate on these bad guys 6000 miles away who threaten your freedom and need to be murdered."
When backed into a corner these elitist parasites become frustrated, very dangerous and resort to force... the last refuge of the incompetent.
All these people who have never spent time in China believe the people are slaves and held doen by the Communist party and would rise up in a heartbeat. Of course, they would never travel there-their fragile beliefs might be shattered. When they return to America, they will see the people are more ldissatisfied and like to revolt in the US.
The Chinese people understand very well that capitalist-roaders inside the Communist Party, led by Deng Xioaping, forced the restoration of capitalism on them. The capitlaist-roaders have gotten away with it for decades due to the availability of huge export markets. Now the fun is coming to an end. Chinese financial markets are sunk. Hundres of millions remain in abject poverty and publc health is a disaster area. (Sounds a little like the US, doesn''t it?)
The capitalist-roaders have every reason to be terrified of a popular upheaval. They have not forgotten Chairman Mao.
I was iin Russia for a couple of weeks in June, btw. Guess what! Russians don't think about their history as we are instructed to in the United States. They have not forgotten their revolution either.
This post is nonsense, the same thing happens to India, SEA and Japan in that case, and that would go down extremely poorly. It will also badly affect Europe, again thoroughly counterproductive.
The US is not going to do that, not without the Chinese doing something extremely dumb, like attack Japan or attack Taiwan, or attack SEA. But even then the US and allies have the naval power to prevent Chinese tanker supplies, without doing anything to Iran, or Hormuz.
Total nonsense.
Yp
China has bypassed Malacca Starits already by building a pipeline for its oil supplies and unlike japan their relations with Russia arent sour so they can get oil supplies from them . China has and will diversify and no longer they rely will majorly on Malaca Straits or Hormuz Strait Chokepoint for their oil supplies. warmongering empire and its tidbits better watch it.
Are you a total imbecile, or what?
There is not a pipeline or POL tank farm on earth than can not be wiped out by a single B-2 full of SDBII glide bombs, let alone ten of them striking all along a pipeline's length.
It would be best if you just refrained from trying to discuss military matters with me, you're much too stupid and ignorant for the task.
Element - reads like a jew wrote the comment.
Oh for fuck's sake! OK then, I admit it! I'm a jew! And it reads like a jew wrote it, because a jew wrote it! :D
You can even tell by how it oozes wicked intelligence and is tectically correct and an accurate assestment of the outcome in the event of an oil blockaide. Because jews are really good at that shit given that do it like, every other day.
Are we happy now, johnboy?
lmao!...keep that up and you'll be accused of being a circumcised kiddie fiddling rabbi...lol...of course there's no way to prove you are not, which is the whole point of this kafkaesque drivel.
"You stand accused sir, so therefore you are guilty unless you submit and confess to the Inquisitor and beg his forgiveness for the crime of being not guilty of the charge!"
So much fucking neo-nazi rubbish to wade through sometimes its not even worth it.
Yup, low grade ore for sure, and it really doesn't matter what we write becasue they're either too stupid to grasp it, or they just want to gloss over it. If I were a Jew, would I have written this comment just a few hours back?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-05/putin-confirms-scope-russian-mi...
So it's irrelevant what your or my content is, the bottom line nwewn, is that there are many statements about the effects of 'false accusers' in the NT, people who "bare false witness". Apparently they had a real problem with dickheads back then, as well.
But for sure 20 years of internet and 2000 years of technology and education has not made a scrap of difference to the baseline ignorant moron's tendency to falsely accuse people and have no problem at all doing it.
But if I were a Jew, what fucking difference would it make (channeling aunt Hillary here, sorry)?
Would my comment would still be correct?So they are not at all interested in correctness of the message, they are only interested in smearing the messenger to make it seem the message was not entirely correct.
But a single B2 hull of SBDIIs would in fact destroy any pipeline's vital infrastructure, and decommission it it for months. You'd think they'd realize by now I know about this stuff, and that people who would actually do it, know it far better than I ever will.
Yeah, I always snickered at the red diaper babies carrying on about Afghanistan pipelines too.
I mean really, here's what the brilliant, nay genius!, NWO-jooo-US-western-hegemonic master plan is, we're gonna take over this tiny rock strewn nation see, this little spit of land that when it is not at war with itself, is at war with any outsider who tries to impose itself on it and them, from Alexander to Britain to the USSR to the US...AND!...we're gonna build a friggin oil pipeline straight through it for a steady, reliable, cheaper way to move oil around, cuz the warlords will stop warlording around it and not blow it up on purpose or accident or hold it for ransom or expect escalating tribal tribute payments, cuz ya know...just cuz.
Yep, pure fucking genius at work there ya gotta admit...lol.
Same here nwewn, I scoffed at that rot when it seemed no one else was. People acted like it all made sense, good grief! Pipelines are one of the worst options for moving oil through territory that is not yours, it's like a pipeline full of dollars right there! So what? No one's going to take it's staff hostage? Or blackmail you for some vig to stop plinking and blowing it up with a $5 dollar 50 cal anti-materiel incendiary rifle rounds? It does not take a lot to organise enormous damage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Explosive_Incendiary/Armor_Piercing_A...
http://www.tactical-life.com/firearms/anzio-ironworks-monstrous-20mm/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Raufoss_NM140_MP_%28en%29.svg
http://www.quarryhs.co.uk/AMR.jpg
Left to right -->
12.7x99 (two variants of the .50 cal round used in many AMRs: French multipurpose and SLAP APDS),
12.7x108 (KBP OSV-96, other East European rifles),
14.5x114 (Mechem NTW-14.5),
15.2x169 (flechette-firing, plastic-cased Steyr IWS 2000 exp.),
20x42B (Denel Neopup PAW-20),
20x82 (Mechem NTW-20),
20x99R (Helenius RK20 APH),
20x110 (RT20, Mechem, Truvelo 20)
I always admired the engineering of the Roman aqueducts which were quite the technological marvel of the day. They certainly made the difference in sanitation with a city of one million without modern technology. However, when I read the difficulty maintaining the structures ( from simple leaks, silting and out right illegal tapping) it made sense only a rich city could afford such a luxury with never ending maintenance. Tactically, their destruction by enemies was most advantageous for crippling the city.
Miffed
Which should clarify you the fragility of excessively globalized supply chains where the source of value creation is ever declining labor arbitrage... Global relocalization is happening... The endgame is certain and essentially if not inherently fraudulent accumulated and derived phantom debt claims will crater in REAL terms (gold) which will then reprice currencies and commodities...
It doesn't.
It hasn't broken so how is it 'fragile'.
Even if a pipeline was wiped out, so what? It's a repairable degradation of capacity with time, not the sudden end of all capacity, production and collapse.
You're a doomer, I can tell. You probably think you aren't.