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The "Great Unwind" Has Arrived
Submitted by Doug Noland via Credit Bubble Bulletin,
It’s my overarching thesis that the world is in the waning days of a historic multi-decade experiment in unfettered finance. As I have posited over the years, international finance has for too long been effectively operating without constraints on either the quantity or the quality of Credit issued. From the perspective of unsound finance on a globalized basis, this period has been unique. History, however, is replete with isolated episodes of booms fueled by bouts of unsound money and Credit - monetary fiascos inevitably ending in disaster. I see discomforting confirmation that the current historic global monetary fiasco’s disaster phase is now unfolding. It is within this context that readers should view recent market instability.
It’s been 25 years of analyzing U.S. finance and the great U.S. Credit Bubble. When it comes to sustaining the Credit boom, at this point we’ve seen the most extraordinary measures along with about every trick in the book. When the banking system was left severely impaired from late-eighties excess, the Greenspan Fed surreptitiously nurtured non-bank Credit expansion. There was the unprecedented GSE boom, recklessly fomented by explicit and implied Washington backing. We’ve witnessed unprecedented growth in “Wall Street finance” - securitizations and sophisticated financial instruments and vehicles. There was the explosion in hedge funds and leveraged speculation. And, of course, there’s the tangled derivatives world that ballooned to an unfathomable hundreds of Trillions. Our central bank has championed it all.
Importantly, the promotion of “market-based” finance dictated a subtle yet profound change in policymaking. A functioning New Age financial structure required that the Federal Reserve backstop the securities markets. And especially in a derivatives marketplace dominated by “dynamic hedging” (i.e. buying or selling securities to hedge market “insurance” written), the Fed was compelled to guarantee “liquid and continuous” markets. This changed just about everything.
Contemporary finance is viable only so long as players can operate in highly liquid securities markets where price adjustments remain relatively contained. This is not the natural state of how markets function. The bullish premise of readily insurable/hedgeable market risks rests upon those having written protection being able to effectively off-load risk onto markets that trade freely without large price gaps/dislocations. And, sure enough, perceptions of liquid and continuous markets do create their own reality (Soros’ reflexivity). Sudden fear of market illiquidity and dislocation leads to financial crashes.
U.S. policymaking and finance changed profoundly after the “tech” Bubble collapse. Larger market intrusions and bailouts gave way to Federal Reserve talk of “helicopter money” and the “government printing press” necessary to fight the scourge of deflation. Mortgage finance proved a powerful expedient. In hindsight, 2002 was the fateful origin of both the historic mortgage finance Bubble along with “do whatever it takes” central banking. The global policy response to the 2008 Bubble collapse unleashed Contemporary Finance’s Bubble Dynamics throughout the world - China and EM in particular.
There are myriad serious issues associated with New Age finance and policymaking going global. The bullish consensus view holds that China and EM adoption of Western finance has been integral to these economies’ natural and beneficial advancement. Having evolved to the point of active participants in “globalization,” literally several billion individuals have the opportunity to prosper from and promote global free-market Capitalism. Such superficial analysis disregards this Credit and market cycles’ momentous developments.
The analysis is exceptionally complex – and has been so for a while now. The confluence of sophisticated finance, esoteric leverage, the highly speculative nature of market activity and the prominent role of government market manipulation has created an extremely convoluted backdrop. Still, a root cause of current troubles can be boiled down to a more manageable issue: “Contemporary finance” and EM just don’t mix. Seductively, the two appeared almost wonderfully compatible - but that ended with the boom phase. For starters, the notion of “liquid and continuous” markets is pure fantasy when it comes to “developing” economies and financial systems. As always, “money” gushes in and rushes out of EM. Submerged in destabilizing finance, EM financial, economic and political systems become, as always, overwhelmed and dysfunctional. And as always is the case, the greater the boom the more destabilizing the bust.
In general, reckless “money” printing has over years produced a massive pool of destabilizing global speculative finance. Simplistically, egregious monetary inflation (along with zero return on savings) ensured that there was way too much “money” chasing too few risk assets. Every successful trade attracted too much company. Successful strategies spurred a proliferation of copycats and massive inflows. Strong markets were flooded with finance. Perceived robust economies were overrun. Popular regions were completely inundated. To be sure, the post-crisis “Global Reflation Trade” amounted to history’s greatest international flow of speculative finance. Dreadfully, now comes The Unwind.
From individual trades, to themes to strategic asset-class and regional market allocations, speculative “hot money” flows have reversed course. Global deleveraging and de-risking have commenced. The fallacy of “liquid and continuous” markets is being exposed. Faith that global central bankers have things under control has begun to wane. And for the vast majority in the markets it remains business as usual. Another buying opportunity.
Whether on the basis of an individual trade or a popular theme, boom-time success ensured that contemporary (trend-following and performance-chasing) market dynamics spurred speculative excess and associated structural impairment. They also ensured latent Crowded Trade fragilities (notably illiquid and discontinuous “risk off” markets).
Crowded Trade Dynamics ensure that a rush for the exits has folks getting trampled. Previous relationships break down and time-tested strategies flail. “Genius” fails. When the Crowd decides it wants out, the market turns bereft of buyers willing and able to take the other side of the trade. And the longer the previous success of a trade, theme or strategy the larger The Crowd - and the more destabilizing The Unwind. Previous performance and track records will offer little predictive value. Models (i.e. “risk parity” and VAR!) will now work to deceive and confound.
Today, a Crowd of “money” is rushing to exit EM. The Crowd seeks to vacate a faltering Chinese Bubble. “Money” wants out of Crowded global leveraged “carry trades.” In summary, the global government finance Bubble has been pierced with profound consequences. Of course there will be aggressive policy responses. I just fear we’ve reached The Unwind phase where throwing more liquidity at the problem only exacerbates instability. Sure, the ECB and BOJ could increase QE – in the process only further stoking king dollar at the expense of faltering energy, commodities, EM and China. And the Fed could restart it program of buying U.S. securities. Bolstering U.S. markets could also come at the expense of faltering Bubbles around the globe.
It has been amazing to witness the expansion of Credit default swap (CDS) markets to all crevices of international finance. To see China’s “shadow banking” assets balloon to $5 Trillion has been nothing short of astonishing. Then there is the explosion of largely unregulated Credit insurance throughout Chinese debt markets – and EM generally. I find it incredible that Brazil’s central bank would write $100 billion of currency swaps (offering buyers protection against devaluation). Throughout it all, there’s been an overriding certitude that policymakers will retain control. Unwavering faith in concerted QE infinity, as necessary. The fallacy of liquid and continuous markets persisted so much longer than I ever imagined.
I feel I have a decent understanding of how the Fed and global central bankers reflated the system after the 2008 mortgage finance Bubble collapse. The Federal Reserve collapsed interest-rates to zero, while expanding its holdings (Fed Credit) about $1 Trillion. Importantly, the Fed was able to incite a mortgage refinance boom, where hundreds of billions of suspect “private-label” mortgages were transformed into (money-like) GSE-backed securities (becoming suitable for Fed purchase). The Fed backstopped the securities broker/dealer industry, the big banks and money funds. Washington backed Fannie, Freddie and the FHLB, along with major derivative players such as AIG. The Fed injected unprecedented amounts of liquidity into securities markets, more than content to devalue the dollar. Importantly, with the benefit of international reserve currency status and debt denominated almost exclusively in dollars, U.S. currency devaluation appeared relatively painless.
These days I really struggle envisaging how global policymakers reflate after the multi-dimensional collapse of the global government finance Bubble. We’re already witness to China’s deepening struggles. Stimulus over the past year worked primarily to inflate a destabilizing stock market Bubble that has gone bust. They (again) were forced to backtrack from currency devaluation. Acute fragilities associated both with massive financial outflows and enormous amounts of foreign currency-denominated debt were too intense. Markets are skeptical of Chinese official signals that the renminbi will be held stable against the dollar. Market players instead seem to be interpreting China’s efforts to stabilize their currency as actually raising the probability for future abrupt policy measures (significant devaluation and capital controls) or perhaps a highly destabilizing uncontrolled breakdown in the peg to the U.S. dollar.
And as China this week imposed onerous conditions on some currency derivative trading/hedging, it’s now clear that Chinese officials support contemporary market-based finance only when it assists their chosen policy course. How long will Chinese officials tolerate bleeding the nation's international reserves to allow “money” to exit China at top dollar?
...
I wholeheartedly agree with the statement “technical factors can push the market away from fundamentals.” Indeed, that’s been the case now for going on seven years. A confluence of unprecedented monetary inflation, interest-rate manipulation, government deficits and leveraged speculation inflated a historic divergence between securities markets Bubbles and underlying fundamentals. The global Bubble is now faltering. Risk aversion is taking hold. De-leveraging is accelerating.
The yen jumped 2.2% this week. Japanese stocks were hit for 7%. The Brazilian real sank 7.3%. The South African rand dropped 4.2%. The Turkish lira dropped another 2.9% and the Russian ruble sank 5.0%. China sovereign CDS surged, pulling Asian CDS higher throughout. The Hang Seng China H-Financials Index sank another 7.4% this week, having now declined 39% from June highs. From my vantage point, market action points to serious unfolding financial dislocation in China. It also would appear that a large swath of the leveraged speculating community is facing some real difficulty.
After a rough trading session and an ominous week for global markets, I was struck by Friday evening headlines. From the Wall Street Journal: “An Investor’s Field Guild to Bottom Fishing;” “Global CEOs See Emerging Markets As Rich With Opportunity.” From CNBC: “Spike in Volatility Creates ‘Traders Paradise.” And from the Financial Times: “Wall Street Waiting for Those Buy Signals;” “Time to Buy EM Stocks, History Suggests;” “Why I’m Adding Emerging Markets Exposure Despite China Wobble;” “G20 Defies Gloom to Forecast Rise in Growth.”
There still seems little recognition of the seriousness of the unfolding global market dislocation. It’s destined to be a wrenching bear market – at best.
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I can hear the bubbles oozing out filthy air.
Like a flatulating fatty in the classroom.
One question - what's this guy's net worth? Enough said..
When you read the first paragraph, then skip right to the comments only to find there are no comments.
Maybe it's just me, but I found only the below of Noland's piece to be true and relevant:
"The analysis is exceptionally complex – and has been so for a while now."
But, that has always been true, no?
I expect another 911, or big false flag type of event as soon as next week
Or war
I think they'll wait for Fallout 4 to come out, just so that future historians can appreciate the irony.
I hope the aliens come. There's no power on earth can save us.
Alien Invasion !!!!!!!!11111
That would be RAD COOL.
I think Europe's got that. Look's pretty lame, afterall. Independance Day was full of $hit, man!
A faked invasion perhaps.
The Nephilim are not ready to show themselves yet.
Yet.
And I for one welcome our new Alien overlords...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lcUHQYhPTE
At least if it were aliens we would know who to fight.
Aliens are demons, not cool.
At least 100 helicopters flew over the house minutes ago. WTF! We could not keep up counting. Went out to see if we could see the fireworks we keep hearing and then the copters show up. I have never seen anything like it. We are in SE Ma. Very unnerving.
You don't matter. You don't have to know.
Here in the mountains the fighter jets are often training. Loud, dropping flares. Chasing one another in dogfights as I stack firewood in preparation for the winter or tend the garden in preparation for canning season. I often think about how much fuel and resources just one of these jets use compared to what I produce from the land and in my business.
This is why I know the USA is going bankrupt.
I am sure they would tell you something if you needed to know....
ISIS member apparently infiltrating this refugee/ migrant African - EU thing.
The more the merrier, I suppose.
Still, a lot of ISIS fighter already have EU passports.
Swedes, Britons, and Germans!
I've been wondering about the winddown of the war in Syria now that Russia--who really does want to kill off ISIS--has entered the fray, combined with the fact that the majority of refugies coming into Europe are young men. These are the ones you see being refused train service in Budapest and in Czech. Sure, there is a smattering of women, children, and old people, but the fact that so many are young men of fighting age seems to be saying something. It has also been reported that these young men have been concealing their origins by destroying their papers. This would also conceal their passage through Turkey aided by ISIS czar Erdogan who may also be the one funding their passage into Europe, since it has also been reported that these young men have €1000 on their persons.
If this turns out to be true, Europe is seriously being betrayed by its political leaders whose only tought is to spread the immigrants around to farflung villages and double the number of "cultural centers." In France the government is funding this construction despite their so-called law of "laicité". This has succeded because of the french letter "r", ie, culturelle=cultuelle, as in "cult."
Frau Merkel will be chairing a summit on the refugie problem. One of the goals will be to force the Eastern European countries to take more immigrants. Given their centuries old experience wih these same immigrants, tis could cause a massive rebellion in those countries.
There is no market gyration that wise Central Bankers and their lightning fast algos can't handle. Sleep well, America, your financial future is in the hands of people "doing God's work". Liquidity will continue out the open arms of the printing press.
I am COMEX gold.
I am physical everything paper sucks. It is about time for my investments to pay off I have been patiently buying all the way to what seems like hell. I will not sell for this Fiat they call money but when the reset happens I hope that the physicall will get me through along with all my supplies
Can we please hurry? Please!
I'm looking for a new financial system that actually "rewards" people for working rather than "awards" people for not working.
What in the world gives you any assurance that the new financial system will provide any of that???
The assumption that it can only get better is very very wrong.
It's so sick and dysfunctional now, and the leaders so weak and full of lies, how can chaos not lead to a reestablishment of something closer to the natural order? Even intermediate chaos will have an inherent logic. Chickens coming home to roost, I think.
Our present course is toward eventual inundation by third-world hordes which will lead to degradation, if not chaos.
Take your pick.
BRICS under OBAMA attack.
The BRICS are spiraling even faster than the rest. So there appears to be no survivors...
Old south sea islander wisdom: If you feel an earthquake, run to the beach and look at the liquidity. If the liquidity is draining away, get to high ground.
Wise man say if you feel an earthquake and you are any where close to the beach, get to High ground, then look at the Liquidity..
Keep predicting doom like you have for the last, what, 8 years? Eventually you'll get it right.
it's funny how you have been registered for 5 years 5 weeks and the above is the ONLY comment in your history. nothing on google either.
Wait, funny ha-ha, or funny strange?
They're sleepers. Yup, just like spy movies. Had some folks (2 in the past) who appeared out of nowhere, flamed my ass good (As if I gave a rat's) and disappeared as soon as I called them on it.
Their retorts to me were dismissive, disingenuousness, demeaning.etc., all the notable traits. Not sayin' this guy's one, but the tell is watching for the NWO statist memes pushed and personal attacks.
Right now I got 2 lurkers who at times will shoot me red arrows just about as quick as I hit the send comment button.
Nobody, even fuck nuts, demented crazies, lurk about waiting and responding, that quick.
Hi Rafter! Got to watch a full, uncut, etc., clip of FMJ the other night. Great stuff. Thought of you :)
Paranoid narcissistic idiot.
LOL
Okay, his response to you was hilarious! I wonder if that was intentional? Could they really be that dense?
Glad to hear Knuck; be sure to read the novel "The Short Timers" sometime :)
Votebots?
http://jeanphix.me/Ghost.py/
Yep, there have been a handful of 5 year old profiles posting/flaming for the very first time lately.
The South was right!
the situation has been deteriorating for years. It takes a beast this big awhile to bleed out
Fed credit inflates so hundreds of billions of suspect “private-label” mortgages were transformed into (money-like) GSE-backed securities (becoming suitable for Fed purchase), yet Fed credit still sits (more or less) at the apex. No wonder the entire global socio-political-financial system is wobbling.
from zero to 12 per cent of all US mortgages from a bubble they bloody created,Jesse James was a gentleman by comparison
Oh I get it. He means that if the FED banksters make the US economy struggle along that will kill business for global corporations and the FED can't have that.
I was in banking back when it was a respetcable occupation a $60000 house required a $20000 deposit and a proven track record of savings,you weren't getting more than $500 on your credit card unless you owned brick and mortar and personal loans analysed character,capacity to pay,commitment and collateral needless to say us old guys are mortified by whats going on now.I agree with the above poster they have crap to infinity financed at virtually zero,they cant raise rates expect a false flag attack or war.
I wouldn't rule out rate rises, but they won't last long. 'World' war is a distinct possibility.
Ran into hard times a year ago. The wife still had decent credit she got one of those credit checks in the mail for 2k at ......ready for this? 110% interest. Ive known it was pretty much over up to that point. But that was the nail..yes, I cashed it to pay rent...still paying on it...its OVER...just the clicking of the clock.......
A year later she got a HUGE inheretence...God IS GUDE..!! " Seek not they own understanding"...proverbs in these final days...
What's that saying?....shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in 3 generations? Her relatives were wealthy, your children will inherit nothing. Good going. You have nothing to be happy about on this score.
Real men of substance increase the family fortune. Your family has reverted to the mean, which is sad indeed.
NIKKEI off 300 presently. Mid 17 thousands. If it hits 15,000, I think all bets are off.
Up over 200 in a matter of minutes, now falling again. Haha.
So if gold was left behind, as it was a constraint to growth (malignancy. semantics, eh?), and now that there is no more growth; is it fair to suggest a return to the gold standard, may be in the cards afterall??
I think the Gold Standard policy will read something like.. barter, Gold or Silver, anything else go fuck yourself.
but i love and trust my government so we will be Fine...
Duuuuuh, "the market can stay insane longer than I can stay solvent." J. M. Keynes
Not owning these (yet), but maybe soon.
3x leveraged, available for retirement accounts:
EDZ Daily Emerging Markets Bear up 2x since May 2015
ERY Daily Energy Bear up near 2x since May
Some Direxion 3x country specific short up nearly 3x since May 2015
Options I will look, but pwn it , no.
Doug ...I give you credit for bringing this to our attention...
NO! The Great Leveling first then the Great RESET!.
There still seems little recognition of the seriousness of the unfolding global market dislocation. It’s destined to be a wrenching bear market – at best."
Very wordy article...
...it's not that complicated.
Really.
The difficulty, I think, will be coming to terms with the ultimate need to kick this thing over the edge ourselves. It doesn't appear to be heading for that essential crash anytime soon, and the Fed/zirp-addicted street sharks and corporate racketeers are gonna likely need an "intervention" before we can hit that therapeutic bottom.
For example, it was only a couple weeks ago that Cramer was hollering for mommy...remember?
That's the shit I'm talking about.
What ought to be plain is that the longer this insanity continues, the worse it'll be. I mean, just imagine if the bastards had gotten it with 2008. How much less worthless debt could've been avoided?
Increasingly, we're going to have to start a national conversation about pulling the plug, even if by major uprising...
m
The Global Aristocracy is destroying itself.
The Globalist snake is eating it's tail and has come to the point where it has run out of tail.
What's next?
Pop goes the snake. Poof! It's gone.
"The "Great Unwind" Has Arrived"
And the Great Guillotine Windup is pulling in as well.
Zion is a scheme, not an ethnicity.
The only power the Devil has is some people's desire to do business with him.
Years ago, old Howard Ruff summed up the situation in one single sentence:
Stimulus works, but every time it requires a bigger jolt than the time before.
Next time, administering the jolt will require the services of Doctor Emmit Brown or Baron von Frankenstein.
And even that may not be enough.
If you have a hard time to sleep read this article.
fueled by bouts of unsound money and Credit - monetary fiascos inevitably ending in disaster.
And hopefully with guillotines in Times and Trafalgar Squares.
I have my knitting.
If you cannot explain something in a simple way, you have not fully understood it.
So a great wind up is always followed by a great unwind up - logical.