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Gartman Goes Full Weasel

Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture




 

From the Slope of Hope; Many have made much chatter (and a fair bit of profit) about the powerful contra-indicative force Gartman's words have vis a vis whatever market he happens to be examining. I've written about it myself in places like here and here, and of course ZH has had an abundance of articles and tweets that effectively provide, free of charge, one of the most powerful trading indicators man has yet devised.

I think Dennis the Menace might be on to the whole schtick however, as evidenced by this most recent interview at his perpetual forum, CNBC (a network which has provided him countless appearances for reasons we can only dare imagine). At first, it may seem like just another firm declaration which can be faded.........except for one suspicious new word: may.

0908-gartmanzero

Now the text of this piece - as the late, great George Carlin might say - pisses me off. Give it a read:

0908-gartmanone

It may come.........within the next few months?? And he wouldn't be surprised if oil prices were higher...........two years from now?????? What kind of analysis is this?

First of all, there are a thousand different ways to interpret this. Maybe the bottom is in. Maybe it isn't. Maybe it'll be in next week. Or next month. Or in six or eight weeks. And, if in the span of two years (which these days is the equivalent of a few centuries), he declares not necessarily that crude oil prices will certainly be higher (which, given the timeframe, you'd think he'd be able to put a stake in the ground) but that he would not be surprised if they were.

Well, we're all quite relieved, Dennis, to know that you'll be spared any consternation in your emotional makeup. I, for one, can sleep again.

It goes on:

0908-gartmantwo

For a moment it seems that, mercifully, there's an actual definitive statement being made ("the worst is absolutely behind us" - - that's more like it!) but, in the same breath, he gores that as well ("they may still go down some"). So if you're looking for something actionable, sorry, this is just all mealy-mouthed mush. The only clear guidance provided is that we - all of us! - will be "surprised" at where commodity prices will be (which, again, could mean anything, such as, by federal statute, all commodity prices have to be priced in bitcoin).

Truth to tell, I imagine the chap felt quite firmly that the commodity bottom was positively in, and that it was time to mortgage the children (except those that might be at a network where you want to keep showing up) and go "pleasantly long of" commodities.

But the aforementioned weasel words provide the best of both worlds: if commodities rally, then he can point to "nailing the bottom" with this interview. On the other hand, if commodities continue to sink, as I imagine they generally will, then he's got about five different escape hatches in this verbiage so that he's off the hook.

All the same, the markets have seen through all this smoke and are acting as God intended - - even on a major holiday, when most markets are completely shuttered. The power-fade-trade will always see its way clear to victory.

0907-gartmancrude

 

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Tue, 09/08/2015 - 10:12 | 6522305 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Born a weasel.

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 09:21 | 6522099 Kickaha
Kickaha's picture

Look at his present behavior this way.  The current market is psychotic.  Bullish up one day, bearish down the next, representing the two dearly held schools of thought about the economy and the stock market.  One side believes that things are in the shitter, and they have the data to support that belief.  The other side thinks the stock market is awesome, and they don't care about any stinking data, they hve momo technical and the Fed put to back them up.

This places Gartman in a quandry.  If the market is regularly going up and down in several hundred point swings, how can he fulfill his function as contrarion bellweather and accurately point investors in the wrong direction?  He can either simply tell everybody to go short volatility, which might be a tad too sophisticated for him, or simply tell everybody that the market is going up or down to some unknown degree at unspecified moments in the next few years, and that his view of the data supports that conclusion.  I imagine he is slapping himself on the back for this insight right now as we discuss his mysterious power to be wrong all of the time, because he may have us in a pickle if he continues to puke a bunch of words pointing in both directions at once.

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 09:04 | 6522011 Spungo
Spungo's picture

It would be nice if more analysts simply said they don't know the answer. I don't know where the bottom is, but I'm reasonably certain oil will be higher 2 years from now. Was that difficult to say?

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 07:23 | 6521723 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Anyone who is following Gartman deserves to lose their money. He's up there with the goldbugs for parting a fool from his money. 

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 06:37 | 6521636 UncleChopChop
UncleChopChop's picture

i feel a bit sorry for the guy. he's not unlike a lot of people in that he's sort of trapped into what he does. ii know a lot of people in various aspects of the fin-services world who aren't that dissimilar. as shit as he obviously is at it, its hard to imagine he could say 'know what? i just suck as this. im hanging it up.' what choice does he have that wouldn't crush his soul? it probably already is soul crushing. 

ok.. now back to raking him over the coals!

 

 

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 01:08 | 6521360 GRDguy
GRDguy's picture

That kind of talk is how they "weasel" your money out of your pocket into theirs.  The only mistake made was to do business with them.

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 23:28 | 6521193 black dragon
black dragon's picture

oh, damn... i thought it said CARTMAN.  im in a southpark mood

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 21:20 | 6520732 SSRI Junkie
SSRI Junkie's picture

why does everyone hate this guy....he is one of the most accurate counter intuitive traders on the market

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 21:11 | 6520700 wiscodave
wiscodave's picture

I agree Gartmans a dick ass.

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 20:08 | 6520430 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

I think he's just a drunk.

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:49 | 6520364 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Maybe he actually cares that he has become the poster child for contrary investing?

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 20:03 | 6520408 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

By Jove, I think you've got it!  Anything he said could be considered contrarian and he's a winnah!!!!!

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 11:25 | 6522556 Boubou
Boubou's picture

Why doesn't he make his own fortune by simply doing the opposite of what he has decided is the right move? Or would his new contraray move be taken as his actual move and still require reversal? This might be a serious logical conundrum.  I call it 'Tosser's Razor"

Also in trying to do this, he might discover that what he just said  is without meaning and beyond interpretation. He should write for the FED.

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:43 | 6520340 Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

His famous thing is when he said to buy anything that may hurt if it falls on your toes.....

And some still pay for his newsletter???....

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:39 | 6520327 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

I take this as he is calling the bottom. This confirms my personally analysis of 50-75% more downside in gold, silver and energy when the market finally rolls over and we really go into crash mode.

I'm still a buyer here though cause my ounces will still be ounces no matter where the price goes and I think metals are. Only slightly over valued to fairly valued currently.

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:12 | 6520220 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

Well, in his defense, we may see a lower bottom... unless we've already been there.  /sarc

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:09 | 6520205 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Too bad English does not have the ultimate weasel tense...subjunctive...that allow so many non-English speakers to never make a commitment. Otherwise I might be surprised if Gartman were to possibly be at the extremes of his profession in examining the possibilities of market future movements , or not ...of course.

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 09:54 | 6522239 AustrianJim
AustrianJim's picture

Actually English does have the subjunctive (mood, not tense). Were I to provide you the link, you could read about it.

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:00 | 6520179 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Fuck Gartman. 

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:00 | 6520174 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Hahaha... "Full Weasel".  That pretty much cracked me up.

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:50 | 6520367 philipat
philipat's picture

I provided in an earlier post an example of Gartman just plain being dishonest, never minf "Weasel". Two weeks back he said that he was "Pleasantly long" stocks, then in his next letter, with no intervening inputs, he said "Now is not the time to be long stocks". That was AFTER the correction. Who needs PAID advice like that?

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 19:55 | 6520386 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

 

 

WHO listens to this asshole?

 

Seriously, Do the Durdens put him on here purely for entertainment value?

 

No one with half a brain pays one second of attention to Gartman.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 00:38 | 6521311 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

He is their current, favorite contrarian indicator. They had one before him, but I forget his name.

Regards,

Cooter

Tue, 09/08/2015 - 06:44 | 6521644 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Stolper.

Mon, 09/07/2015 - 21:40 | 6520824 Tim Knight from...
Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

Then I proudly have less than half a brain, because the term "Dennis Gartman" is literally the ONLY thing I have set in Google News to automatically alert me any time he is in the media.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!