This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Goldman Explains Why Europe's Refugee Crisis Is Actually A Blessing
While it’s in no way out of the ordinary for a sitting Democrat to trumpet a set of beliefs that diverge markedly from the views espoused by the GOP frontrunner in the lead-up to an election, the extent to which the Obama administration’s position on immigration differs from Republican hopeful Donald Trump’s vision for border control is truly remarkable. The President has of course pushed for reforms which shield non-violent immigrants from deportation while Trump argues that anyone who didn’t come to the country via legal channels should be politely shown the door.
The fact that these two positions are so diametrically opposed underscores the extent to which immigration will likely be the most rancorous, contentious and divisive topic on the campaign trail on the way to elections in 2016 and make no mistake, this debate has very real implications for the US economy.
As we’ve shown, since December 2007, according to the Household Survey, only 790,000 native born American jobs have been added. Contrast that with the 2.1 million foreign-born Americans who have found a job over the same time period. In August, a whopping 698,000 native-born Americans lost their job. This drop was offset by 204,000 foreign-born Americans who got a job during the month.
The immigration debate in the US and the jobs data shown above highlight the extent to which demographics are critical if we want to understand social and economic outcomes. Looking beyond the American political circus and the US jobs market, Japan is staring down a well-documented demographic nightmare while, as discussed here previously, China faces the end of its "migrant miracle" as the country approaches its Lewis turning point. Meanwhile, migrant flows have become perhaps the most talked about issue across Europe.
The point: demogrpahic shifts, whether gradual or sudden, whether wholly domestic or emanating from some exogenous shock (like say a horrible US foreign policy outcome) matter - and they matter a lot.
It's with that in mind that we turn to Europe, where a refugee crisis sparked in large part by Syria’s four-year old, bloody civil war recently reached a tipping point and the scramble to find a workable solution both in terms of allocating asylum seekers and finding the funds to accommodate them has become the single most pressing challenge facing European policy makers. Here’s the latest from BBC:
Germany can cope with at least 500,000 asylum seekers a year for several years, Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel has said.
Germany expects more than 800,000 asylum-seekers in 2015 alone - four times the 2014 figure. Mr Gabriel reiterated that other EU states should share the burden.
The UN's refugee agency, UNHCR, says a record 7,000 Syrian migrants arrived in Macedonia alone on Monday and 30,000 were on Greek islands.
The migrants, mainly Syrians, are engaged in a long trek which takes them from Turkey, across the sea to Greece, through Macedonia and Serbia, and then to Hungary from where they aim to reach Austria and Germany.
The migrant influx has unsettled European governments and prompted diverse responses.
Hungary's conservative leadership is building a border fence to try to keep them out, but German politicians have expressed pride in crowds who welcomed new arrivals.
A Greek minister said on Monday that the island of Lesbos, which sits off the Turkish coast, was "on the verge of an explosion" due to a build-up of 20,000 migrants.
The EU is due to unveil proposals on Wednesday to distribute 160,000 refugees among member states on a mandatory basis.
And while it may be difficult for anyone to find the silver lining amid the chaos (especially when pictures of dead children are being trotted out as proof of why the West urgently needs to intervene further in Syria thus ensuring the situation becomes even more unstable than it was before), the implications of such a dramatic migration will be felt for generations to come and in some respects Goldman says more immigration may in fact be just what Western Europe needs. Here's more:
Whichever way we slice the data, the growth in working age population stands out as a key driver of economic growth for most countries. A healthy dependency ratio, a skilled workforce, together with strong institutions and an absence of major resource imbalances is usually the formula for country-level success. But with most DMs weighed down by ageing populations, a key question is this - can people inflows can counter challenging demographics? The short answer is yes, but only up to a point...
The rising concerns on ageing have unsurprisingly been accompanied by more accommodative policies on immigration; the number of countries with stated plans to grow their populations via immigration has gone up to 22 as of 2013, from 10 in 2010 (note that immigrants also tend to have higher fertility rates).
But for many countries, people inflows are only part of the solution. In order to maintain current levels of retirees/working age population ratios in 2025, immigration rates in Western Europe need to be 7x-8x higher than current run rate (based on UN estimates), while in Japan and Korea, the requirement goes up to a highly improbable 26x and 58x current levels.
Now consider what was said above about the magnitude of Germany's refugee accommodation (i.e. that the country is set to take in some 500,000 asylum seekers per year), and then consider the following from the same Goldman note:
Obviously, it's far too early to draw any sort of concrete conclusions about what effect - positive or negative - the influx of Syrian refugees will have on Western Europe. Moreover, the societal and economic impact of people inflows is at least to some extent dependent upon what skills immigrants bring with them. To expand on Goldman's discussion of the so-called "skill fill", the question might be this: to what extent can immigrants help fill skills gaps in DM economies created by deteriorating demographics? Of course we must also consider what effect second- and third- generation immigrants may end up having on receiving countries' economies (i.e. does the original migration end up vicariously conferring a substantial benefit on the society of the receiving country and if so, how?).
We'll leave those questions to readers and simply close by pointing out (again) the tragic irony inherent in France's suggestion that the proper response to the current refugee crisis is for the French military to bomb Syria. That either represents an utter inability on the part of the French government to understand the West's role in destabilizing Syria in the first place, or, more likely, the latest example of how one way or another - via YouTube gas attack videos or via heart-wrenching pictures of desperate migrants fleeing the violence - the US and its allies are determined to find the right mix of propaganda to justify a ground incursion. And that's the real tragedy here: the pitiable plight of Syria's beleaguered masses will be used as an excuse to cause them still more pain and suffering.
»
- 34311 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
i dont see the jews picking up any slack, to the contrary actually.
Europe was a nice place for several decades. Been nice knowin' ya, Europe.
Glenn Beck is right: take your kids there (Paris, Rome, etc.) before the Muslims ruin that big part of our civilization and historical treasures.
EDIT: Four-chan, I do not see Gulf Arabs (nor co-religionists Iran) taking in any Syrians...
Some people are assholes.
Blessing, my ass.
See how well not picking your own cotton gets ya'
Surprised they aren't pushing stock in companies that sell rape test kits, being that they'll need 10 a year for each male terrorist, er refugee, that moves into Europe.
A blessing from people who are doing God’s work, maybe?
If the demographics are fucked up, try some family friendly policies.
"A blessing from people who are doing God’s work, maybe?"
Most here would know GS does God's work and to avoid going anywhere near whatever they're promoting.
I think its confirmation that Europe is past saving.
Should we consider investing in the Slave markets for German women ?
Corporations real dream is to transform the whole world if posible into a south-asian style mega-slum, the perfect social enclave to farm perenial slaves.
This is the real reason for the social demolition of Europe, the example of advanced human social enclaves where people can be free and enjoy their life
must be erased as soon as possible - not a good live example and alternative at what america is becoming.
That's true. Europe's social democratic system has been nothing more than a tool to make people docile to the rich, providing welfare benefits and health insurance while maintaining ownership of the economy by privately owned banks and corporations. In neither the pre-war capitalism nor the post-war social democracy did working people, who by definition produce all of the wealth in the economy, gain much of a say in how business was run (except, perhaps, through co-opted unions that only wanted to benefit their leaderships).
That's why the progressives have talked we the people out of a constitutionally limited republic; and right into a fergusson style mob rule democracy.
Doubt it's the coprorations doing it, because those slum peasants don't have money to keep buying shit.
Correct. If everyone were in a slum, who would buy expensive ANYTHING?
Who would drive (hence buy) cars? Who would replace their wheel bearings?
because they prepare the system to collapse - after the collapse a new world will emerge when these paria will not be needed anymore, till they can be exploited the system will be kept in emergency room
"Doubt it's the coprorations doing it, because those slum peasants don't have money to keep buying shit."
Probably true. But their Lord will provide, by taking from those who pay taxes and giving to those who collect welfare.
oh no,no,no,no ... these paria need fodder, wather and medicine :),
"The EU is due to unveil proposals on Wednesday to distribute 160,000 refugees among member states on a mandatory basis"
160,000 should handle about 5% of the volume over the next few months.
The very idea, - whether pronounced by Goldman or others, - that Muslim immigrants into Europe or elsewhere, are a long term economic blessing is laughable.
IT is also a suicidal hypothecis. Muslims are never immigrants. They are conquerors. Their religion-economic faith, and their essence of being is toward Islamic Conquest of all other cultures, not assimilation into other cultures.
What is so difficult about this FACT, for all NON muslims to understand?
Islam was a much more peaceful religion prior to the worldwide Wahhabi propaganda of Saudi Arabia. Islamic leaders did lead wars of conquest (leaders of every other religion did as well) but they left in their wake a much more tolerant religion that in many cases syncretized with local cultures and faiths. It is the promotion of orthodoxy and literalism by the Saudi "royal family" in order to maintain its power, aided and abetted by the US and other Gulf Arab states, that has banished this version of Islam.
"The very idea, - whether pronounced by Goldman or others, - that Muslim immigrants into Europe or elsewhere, are a long term economic blessing is laughable."
It also has strategic implications. What is the future of NATO ?
Within the next 2 or 3 decades, these Muslims will form the majority in EU countries due to their ability to multiply. The indigenous population will become a minority. And it would not be a surprise to have Muslims forming the govt. or holding sensitive positions as Defense Ministers. Is the US ready and willing to sacrifice its men and women for a Muslim EU which has a different political agenda ?
So Europe is importing all these immigrants in order to prop up its welfare system. Given the demographic dynamic in Europe, the baby boomer generation over there is willingly supporting the replacement of Europeans by Middle Eastern Islamic tribes, just to maintain their entitlements. And there you have it. I only have one thing to say about those who are in favor of this policy.
Jedem das Seine.
It should be enforced to its fullest extent to these self centered bastards.
The greatest intergenerational sell out in history.
The Boomers have betrayed their children and grandchildren in order to 'retire' as the politicians and advertising executives promised when they were divested of their paychecks..
Revolution and disavowal of the odious debts are the only rational response left to us.
"Revolution and disavowal of the odious debts are the only rational response left to us."
The banks already OWNED us. One is only free if one has zero debt. They won't just let us walk away.
"the baby boomer generation over there is willingly supporting the replacement of Europeans by Middle Eastern Islamic tribes, just to maintain their entitlements."
LOL. The average baby boomer over there has no more say about the invasion of Middle Eastern Islamic tribes into Europe as the average baby boomer in the United States has to say about the millions of illegals who have flooded into this country. It's happening whether we want it to or not.
Those decisions are made by a few at the top at the expense of the masses.
You know what happened to the few at the top every time the masses said, fuck you? I can assure you that the average baby boomer over there will be voting with his benefits in mind.
While the average baby boomer (or any voter) might vote with their benefits in mind, there are probably very few that would vote for an influx of millions of Muslims who will end up being on the government dole for the rest of their lives.
There's got to be a different reason as to why the elites are allowing the Muslim hordes into Europe.
The catalyst for the Great Culling.
"I can assure you that the average baby boomer over there will be voting with his benefits in mind."
Unless the average baby boomer is brain dead, that person will also be aware the govt. cannot keep increasing welfare benefits when the pool of (including the new migrants) welfare receipients keep increasing.
Fucking families and communities are getting broken up and the squid looks for ways to profit. I hope I live to see the day when these evil pricks get exactly what is coming to them.
Count on it, Doctor.
Mixing cultures and religions this fast, in these large numbers doesn't seem to be a good idea.
I mean people are still territorial, and social with others like them.
I just don't see any of this forced mixing, there or here, ending well.
Never has, never will.
"The migrants, mainly Syrians"
bullshit, there's a lot af people from the balcans and other places like pakistan, afghanistan etc. syrians are quite a minority. And that's the balkans route. Here in Italy they arrive mostly from black Africa, sub sahara, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria ....
Lavorano e fanno figli: cosi i migranti finanziano l'Europa. Per salvare le nostre pensioni ne servono 250 MILIONI entro il 2060
http://www.repubblica.it/economia/2015/09/08/news/lavorano_e_fanno_figli...
They work and make childs, they will finance Europe. To save our pensions we neeed 250 MILIONS "refugees" from here to 2060
250 Million new tax donkeys are required to pay BOOMER pensions.
Their children and descendents will be showed aside and divested of the polity within their nation to do it.
Young westerners divested of their economic and political and cultural inheritances to pay for golf and shuffleboard and viagra for their grandparents...
Europe already has high youth unemployment. Where would they work if they wanted to?
How will those Muslim hordes be new tax donkeys to pay for BOOMER pensions when most of Muslims will end up being on the government dole for the rest of their lives?
There's got to be a different reason as to why the elites are allowing the Muslim hordes into Europe.
The elites created the problems themselves and have to pay for it. There are no "hordes" coming into Europe; the vast majority of refugees have gone to Turkey and Lebanon which have absorbed them. The latter country in particular has seen its population shoot up by 20% due to an influx of refugees. Europe clearly has the capacity to absorb far more immigrants but nationalist rhetoric from "populist" politicians is dividing working people against working people so that none unite against the political/billionaire class.
The elites don't want the refugees to enter Europe; the vast majority live elsewhere.
Just another morning dose of bullshit.
"They work and make childs, they will finance Europe. To save our pensions we neeed 250 MILIONS "refugees" from here to 2060"
Does anyone believe these migrants will be working and contributing or are they more likely to be collecting ?
Does anyone believe, given their religious preferences that these migrants would want to support a Christian population ?
A little OT, but interesting.
My buddy has a crew of "un-documented" legal-illeagal's working for him.
One kid, 19, no papers, just got his MD drivers licence. Then went directly to the Ford store, got a loan, and bought a NEW car.
What a country!
It would be interesting to know if WASPS could do that in Maryland too.
A great generational theft is underway.
A theft of polity, of economic rights, or cultural rights, of self determination.
All to pay for the promises of currupt politicians...
Agreed but its a multi generational theft. At least as far as the ones paying for it all.
I wish I could say it would be fun watching the boomers eat their own cooking. But it wont be fun it will suck badly for everyone that cannot produce.
Global movement to get the banksters that are funding the bombing of their homes. More great ideas from the best and brightest suicidal banksters
By the UN's own figures:
13% Children
12% Women
75% Adult males
Draw your own conclusions, but that is not typical refugee flow distribution.
You just have to wonder how many ISIS operatives are among them. Europe is dead.
The indigenous population will supply the women for the single males. Thats a given.
Perhaps Mama Merkel wants a lusty strapping hunk to straddle ?
What Goldman meant to say was baffle them with bullshit works better with a diverse multi-cultural population that is divided. It becomes harder to spot a sociopathic banker in this mix.
Europe is going to split west/east over this and white Germans, British and French are going to be applying for asylum in Eastern Europe in 20 yrs. if Poland alone leaves the EU, and it would if they held a referendum there,
German GDP goes negative, plus very quickly they would lose out in price competition on many goods as Easten Euro quality is the same now at 30% off. There is zero incentive for Poland, Hungary, Czechs and Slovaks to remain in the EU.
Ideal would be for a Slav union to form. It is not a new idea and it has been tried before in the 20th century. First time by a Pole and then also by Croat or maybe Serb (I don't recall anymore).
The fucking Brits were against it and did much to stop it.
A Union made up of Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, all of former Yugoslavia as well as good relationship with Russia would be advantageous over being in the EU.
Europe is going to split west/east over this and white Germans, British and French are going to be applying for asylum in Eastern Europe in 20 yrs.If Poland alone leaves the EU, and it would if they held a referendum there,
German GDP goes negative, plus very quickly they would lose out in price competition on many goods as Easten Euro quality is the same now at 30% off. There is zero incentive for Poland, Hungary, Czechs and Slovaks to remain in the EU.
Death of Europe in 3...2...1
What kind of sociopathic scum would turn a refugee crisis into tax collection scheme to pay off a sovereign debt scheme?
Never mind that.
What kind of sociopathic scum would inflame and support wars to destablise muslim countries causing a Muslim Pogrom and a refugee crisis in Western Europe?
Never mind that.
There's a Rat in the Kitchen...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHwPYze5M9s
...and everyone at Goldman is on "The Fucking List."
Sleep well assholes.
Every time I read about fears for "retirees/working age population ratio" I want to puke myself all over the place. Thats fucking ideology and very mainstream at that!
If a business producing food employed 5000 people 40 years ago, today it employs 50 people with increased productivity! Thats technological progress.
Real goal of economy is to provide while ideological goal of some "economists" is to keep people busy and docile, at all costs it seems.
Resolution is not in obsessing over "retiree ratios" but questioning distribution of wealth in context of rapid and exponential technological change.
This was predictable, and given how quickly they print it, leads me to believe it was planned.
Last week, der Spiegel in Germnay said the migrants will be "good for economic growth and corporate profits".
the big question.
WHAT DOES IT MATTER IF ALL THE JOBS HAVE BEEN SHIPPED OVERSEAS? in the US, anyways.
Oh thats right, they can print welfare money.
You will have One World Government whether you like it or not.
The Spiegel makes fair to middling toilet paper.
My wife and I were in Europe this past June. We visited Vienna, Munich and Salzburg before heading into Italy and visiting Florence, Pisa, Bologna and Naples. We had been there two years before, although the only cities we revisted were Vienna and Florence. Suffice to say, with the influx of refugees, I doubt we'll be going back to any of those cities any time soon. I can foresee Vienna, Salzburg and Munich all becoming similar to our experience in Naples. Departing the train station in Naples, it was probably about 90% MENA men, all standing around with nothing to do. It was actually rather intimidating to even walk across the entrance to the station. Even as far north as Florence, the number of MENA men hawking souveniers (mainly selfie sticks and some kind of slime ball) was far greater than it was two years earlier. Pisa and Bologna were fairly well insulated from the influx of refugees. And there were virtually none in Vienna, Munich and Salzburg. What hit me, particularly in Naples, was that virtually all of these refugees were young, healthy men. I didn't see very many women or children or, for that matter, older men, in the mix of people around the station. By the way the media is portraying this exodus from Syria, you would think that it's 99% women and children that are leaving, but I just don't think that's the case.
At any rate, I don't see how Europe is going to be able to handle this influx, because I seriously doubt it's going to be only 500,000 a year for 4 years going into Germany. When word gets out, you're going to see a mass migration from MENA and from Central and Southern Africa north that will make the current migration seem like a walk in the park.
The Western powers said they wanted to make the rest of the world like the US and Europe. People assumed they meant they were going to raise the standard of living for the rest of the world. Little did these people know that what they meant was bringing the US and Europe down to the level of the rest of the world.
If I were some of the more prosperous nations in Asia (Singapore, Taiwan, Korea and Japan), I would be looking at this migration and wonder when the Western powers were going to screw up my countries like they have their own.
The fun fact about third world immigrants is they multiply like fleas.
500k become 2.5 million in 20 years. The continual migration adds to the numbers. Look at the birth rate of the muslims who invaded Serbia. In one generation your country is gone.
Forty years of ghetto welfare has given America at least 80 million new mouths the taxpayers have to feed.
Good post +10.
It will dip a bit into winter and than mushroom next spring. This is not stopping short and while people gush about Angela's Red Carpet - in the real world she just threw open the gates and they'll be no stopping them from The ME, Sub Africa, Sub Con, etc. now.
10 years tops and they are done - history before your very eyes.
make no mistake, this is an invasion, and Europe will pay dearly for this stupidity.
Yes.
I was speaking with a friend today, he works for big MNC in Warsaw, so according to him Poles are watching this with absolute dismay, they see it for what it is, they have not been brainwashed with leftist bs yet. The PolishJewish govt there outlawed an anti immigrant rally in the city which was going to be in high thousands... The word on the street is that this is worse occupation than under the soviets, people there want out of the EU, and so do other Eastern European white nations.
a real blessing would be if goldman's sacks paid for it all. how about buying a chunk of greenland and drop them all there. they can begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure
After they won the war the allies took over education in Germany. Brainwashed and bombed em all.
Germany is no more and hasn't been since the 60s when they had time to "educate" an entire generation.
For that matter all of Europe is in this same boat.
Jews own Europe and really do brag about that.
Jews are a corrosive force, by design, it's their religion to destroy.
The Jews are the frontmen. Behind them is the Brits.
Israel is a British creation. The Balfor Declaration.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/bed-despotic-house-saud#comment...
Rothschild purchased the Balfour declaration from the British. His payment: American involvement in WW-1 to prevent British defeat.
I must pre-apologize that one graph looks like an outline of - you'll know the one - wait for it: a Krusty The Clown.
this is what happen when people fuck only for fun and not to make baby especially in germany
Of course it's a blessing. A blessing to Israel. They want to genocide whites in europe and america
It is the Brits who want to do that.
Israel is a British creation. The Balfor Declaration.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/bed-despotic-house-saud#comment...
Rothschild purchased the Balfour declaration from the British. His payment: American involvement in WW-1 to prevent British defeat.
A half page ad here in a Montreal newspaper went something like:
" recent immigrant? You are eligible for a credit card, car loan and/or mortgage loan. No backgroung check or credit history required".
BAM! There's your silver lining.
Welcome to Canada, foreign bitchez!
Welcome to my (and your) nightmare.
Germany is set to spend $6.5 billion on this refugee program. Unlike QE, that money will go straight into the economy and create growth. The only way the US can stimulate its economy is to start another war, thanks to a certain bunch of people that are opposed to any sort of government spending unless it directly benefits the 1%.
Congratulation, that is the most stupid thing I have read today
The most stupid thing you can do when your car dies is keep pouring gas into the tank instead of jumping the battery.
http://www.sinhalanet.net/is-the-refugee-crisis-a-business-ventureThe above link states:
"Germany’s population is dwindling. The birth rates are equally shocking. So too is the working-age population which is Europe’s biggest economy. Overall population of Germany is predicted to fall from 82miliion to 65million by 2060. Between 2000 and 2013, Germany’s birth rate dropped by 11 per cent
Europe’s Population Policy Acceptance Study found that 23 per cent of German men thought ‘zero’ was the ideal family size.
Without immigrant families, the number of newly born children in Germany would reach only 400,000 in a country of 82 million."
Europe’s Population Policy Acceptance Study???????????
Trust GS to take that idiotic position. Life's tough being a brain eating zombie, sucking the lifeblood out of Western economies daily. Thanks for your input kikes.
Well maybe it us really The City:
Israel is a British creation. The Balfor Declaration.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/bed-despotic-house-saud#comment...
Rothschild purchased the Balfour declaration from the British. His payment: American involvement in WW-1 to prevent British defeat.
looking forward to the 2030 world cup germany vs france where we have 10 blacks and one frenchman playing for france and 8 arabs and 3 germans playing for germany.
and iraq vs germany for a derby match, brother vs brother
Example: In Switzerland 95% (ninty-five percent) of all refugees from Eritrea depend on social security.
So less and less people in the workforce have to feed through more and more people on wellfare!
That's the solution to what??
Affluence!
Hello all. New to the board but not new to watching the casino.
About this: how sure are Westerners that these immigrants are going to fund their retirement in 20-30 yrs? Do they really think the Muslims will give two craps if they suffer in old age?