I have written extensively about the data behind the headline media reports. I have also discussed the importance of the relationship between the underlying data trends relative to broader macroeconomic perspectives. However, it is sometimes helpful just to view the various economic indicators and draw your own conclusions outside of someone else's opinion.
With the economy now more than 6-years into an expansion, which is long by historical standards, the question for you to answer by looking at the charts below is:
"Are we closer to an economic recession or a continued expansion?"

How you answer that question should have a significant impact on your investment outlook as financial markets tend to lose roughly 30% on average during recessionary periods. However, with margin debt at record levels, earnings deteriorating and China struggling with a sinking economy, this is hardly a normal market environment within which we are currently invested.
Therefore, I present a series of charts which view the overall economy from the same perspective utilizing an annualized rate of change. In some cases, where the data is extremely volatile, I have used a 3-month average to expose the underlying data trend. Any other special data adjustments are noted as well.
Leading Economic Indicators

Durable Goods


Investment



ISM Composite Index

Employment & Industrial Production



To understand more about the difference between the BLS employment report with and without the Birth/Death adjustment read this.

Retail Sales


Social Welfare

The Broad View

Economic Composite
(Note: The Economic Composite is a weighted index of multiple economic survey and indicators - read more about this indicator)

If you are expecting an economic recovery, and a continuation of the bull market, then the economic data must begin to improve markedly in the months ahead. The problem has been that each bounce in the economic data has failed within the context of a declining trend. This is not a good thing and is why we continue to witness an erosion in the growth rates of corporate earnings and profitability. Eventually, that erosion combined, with excessive valuations, will weigh on the financial markets which is potentially much of what we are witnessing now.
For the Federal Reserve, these charts make the case that continued monetary interventions are not healing the economy, but rather just keeping it afloat by dragging forward future consumption. The problem is that it leaves a void in the future that must be continually filled.
The question on everyone's mind is whether the economy is strong enough to withstand rate hikes by the Federal Reserve? In my opinion, the answer is no. The economy continues to ebb and flow between weak growth and no growth. This puts the Federal Reserve at risk of a policy mistake that could trip the economy into an outright recession. While there have certainly been positive bumps in the data, as pent-up demand is released back into the economy, the inability to sustain growth is most concerning.
But then again, that is just what I see.
I think we have more expansion to go before we are like China and competitive again.
Do you wanna know what happened to Michael Jackson’s chimp Bubbles?
It grew-up and became a Fed Chairman. ;-)
Looney
Economy In Pictures: Is It Strong Enough?
Strong enough for what?
"That's a nice economy,... for me to POOP ON!"
https://uproxx.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/triumph.jpeg?w=650
No recession until vehicle sales, new home starts and imports decline. Not there yet.
I miss what's-his-name with the lingerie babe at the end of this sort of thing. In fact, for this many charts, there woulda been two.
Things are looking up. Men have so much money they can buy women's shoes for themselves.
https://goodbyeamericainaphoto.wordpress.com/2015/09/08/soft-target/
It will NEVER be "ready" for a rate increase until we've gone through a +50% correction and follow-on rate decreases...is this the plan? Continued transfer of wealth to .001% global asset holders? TREASON!
Oh Shit.... I am Fucking outa here.
Lets see rates/land tax doubled in 5 years,electricity doubled last 3 years,water doubled in 4 years,car registration up 50 percent in 6 years,my wages linked to cpi plus bonuses up about 15 per cent in 6 years all this yet I am supposed to go and spend and contribute to growth..dont think so
I've never understood why talk of rising costs leaves out the health care debacle. Mine has almost tripled.
Where is this post-2009 economic recovery ' cos it sure as hell didn't happen in my 'hood?
Nothing to see here...
OBEY...CONSUME...WORK...SILENCE...OBEY
You lost me at "current recovery -74 mo."...
What is there in those charts that says the economy won't crash even if they don't raise rates?
Does anyone give a shit if the economy is strong enough for a 0.25% rate hike? Its the banks and all their levered derivatives, the USD and all its knock ons that I'm concerned about.
Just blame the weather.
What expansion? What recovery? I don't see any new business. Where are the jobs?!? How does one slip into recession when there was never a recovery? Am I going insane? So everyone becomes a truck driver? To move more cheap Chinese shit around?
God save us!
If there is no Wanta Plan, then we are dead! Dead, dead, FUCKING -- dead ..
https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp
(11 minute teaser, yada, yada, yada ..)
If Rob Kirby, Bill Holter, and Jim Sinclair are correct, without monetary reset, and the Wanta Plan, then we're toast!
A new Dark Age ..
Watch The Road .. https://youtu.be/pzH62MPTaFY
You're new life to come ..
The economy never recovered from the 100% fake 1990s boom time.
Just as the economy needed the deaths of millions during WWII to recover from the fake 1920s boom.
It took 23 years to truly recover from the '29 collapse. There were some spectacular rallies for the 1% during that time. For real people it didn't get better until the early 1950s. The good economic times really only lasted for 15 years until it all started to fall apart again.
The 1% gets to enjoy far more economic good times than the masses. They only had to endure two years of stock market pain before they made everything back plus some after the last two crashes.
Real people have had to endure 16 years of economic malaise. Sure people got to buy some toys thanks to the housing boom, but it destroyed affordability and turned real estate into a game of monopoly flipping between players.
The six year rally from 2009 is probably the most hated and least believed rally of all time. When you talk to people they say the economy sucks. They say there are no jobs available and what are available don't pay enough.
How can people say the economy sucks after one of the longest and greatest stock market rallies of all time?
How can there not be any jobs after creating trillions of dollars in wealth?
The only answer is that it isn't real.
Next big stock market company. You can;t have iPhones without iPee:
https://goodbyeamericainaphoto.wordpress.com/2015/09/09/you-go-grrl/
I dont know about anywhere else but here in New Hampshire, people are handing out money like candy.
Literally I,ve see people with hand fulls of USD's paying for shit like they were millionaires or something. Great big smiles on everyones face all the time, like they're drugged up on the USD.
Crazy crap! We have a zipline that last like 8-10 minutes and it cost $85 and you cant get near the place. Parking full, lines a mile long. CRAZY SHIT!
Boats so thick you can walk across them and little planes everywhere just circling around.
This has been the busiest summer I have ever seen here. Non stop traffic too. All day, all night, all the time.
WTF! Please save us S.O.S "Save Our State" "Welcome to NH. Please dont Mass it all UP." "I dont visit your state on weekends, why do you visit mine on weekends?" Etc. etc.
GO HOME! Ever hear of Peace and Quiet?
All this friggin' hysteria over 25bp and all the simpering for more QE really illustrates what a mess we are in.
what about a chart of DEBT!!!! DEBT IS KILLING THE WORLD. Bankers steal all the printed trillions and the stupid public is left with the DEBt...where as the bankers offshore the money. Death to the money Changers!
Is the economy strong enough .. simply no. Why so? Well, firstly consider the wider economic fundamentals .. the big players like China and USA are co-dependant on each other. One gets sick the other catches the virus. Like siamese twins sharing ebola.
Then, the smaller supporting players like Brazil, European Med countries, other Asian players .. these are all on shaky ground. That's before we get to the really sick countries of the world such as Greece.
By the way Greece hasn't gone away, Brazil is falling a part like most of South America and Africa is a war ripped, platoon of jungle monkeys. Europe is expecting another couple of million on the dole queus thanks to Syria et al. The rest of the world is just waiting for the event horizon.
We're just watching the signs, any sign of the next tsunami to appear. Hopefully we're on solid ground and far from the shore, possibly up on high ground when the tidal waves appear.
Pardon being late to the party on this one, but isn't defense kind of important to include?? Someone is getting paid to design all those drones...