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This Is Exactly What The Early Phases Of A Market Meltdown Look Like
Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
There is so much confusion out there. On the days when the Dow goes down by several hundred points, lots of people pat me on the back and tell me that I “nailed” my call for the second half of this year. But on the days when the Dow goes up by several hundred points, I get lots of people contacting me and telling me that they are confused because they thought the stock market was supposed to go down. Well, the truth is that if there is going to be a full-blown market meltdown, we would expect for there to be wildly dramatic swings in the market both up and down.
A perfect example of this is what we experienced during the financial crisis of 2008. 9 of the 20 largest single day declines in stock market history happened that year, but 9 of the 20 largest single day increases in stock market history also happened that year. If we are moving into another great financial crisis, there should be massive ups and massive downs, and that is precisely what we are witnessing right now.
On Tuesday, the Dow surged several hundred points. There was much celebrating in the mainstream media over this, but what they failed to realize was that this was another big red flag. And we saw this volatility carry over into Wednesday. The Dow was up 171 points early in the day before ending down 239 points.
By themselves, those two days don’t mean a whole lot. The key is to look at them in context. And in context, we have already witnessed the most dramatic stock market crash since the last financial crisis.
There will be more days when the stock market absolutely plummets and there will be more days when it absolutely soars. No stock market crash in U.S. history has ever gone in just one direction continually. There are always giant waves of momentum that cause panic selling and panic buying.
There is one thing that could change that. A major “black swan event” such as a historic natural disaster, an unprecedented terror attack, or the outbreak of war could potentially be enough to chase all of the buyers out of the marketplace. And considering the times that we are moving into, those things should not be ruled out.
But minus some type of event like that, we should expect lots of wild swings in both directions.
Over the past couple of years, I have repeatedly attempted to explain the general principle that markets tend to go up when they are calm and they tend to go down when they are volatile.
If you want the bull market to return, you should be rooting for lots of really, really boring days on Wall Street.
When things are boring, investors make money.
Days that are “exciting” are really bad for Wall Street. Investors like a world that is predictable, and when conditions start changing rapidly they get very, very nervous.
In the months ahead, trillions of dollars are going to be lost in stock markets all over the planet. Feel bad for the retirees and the hard working families that are going to get wiped out by this, but don’t feel bad for the banksters. They have been laughing it up while most of the country has been suffering during our ongoing economic decline. If you don’t believe me, just check out this YouTube clip.
A lot of people are going to be paralyzed during this time, because they won’t know what to do. They didn’t heed the warnings up until now, and they thought that they would be able to safely get out of the market when things started getting crazy. The big ups and big downs in the markets will confuse them, and the mainstream media will be telling them that everything is just fine.
If you have been waiting for the market to send you “warning signals”, then you can stop waiting because it is happening right in front of your eyes.
Now is not a time for fear. Personally, I seek to live my live in a constant state of peace without any fear even though I write about some very hard realities almost every day.
This is part of the reason why I so adamantly encourage people to prepare for what is ahead. Knowledge and preparation can help eliminate fear.
If you already know what is coming and you are already prepared for it, you won’t be freaking out like the rest of the general population will be when things start really going crazy.
I want to share something with you that Brandon Smith wrote recently…
Panic betrays and fear kills. The preparedness culture is built upon the ideal that one must defeat fear in order to live. How a person goes about removing uncertainty from the mind is really up to the individual. For me, combat training and mixed martial arts is a great tool. If you get used to people trying to hurt you in a ring, it’s not quite as surprising or terrifying when it happens in the real world. If you can handle physical and mental trauma in a slightly more controlled environment, then fear is less likely to take hold of you during a surprise disaster.
Six months may be enough time to enter a state of mental preparedness, it may not be, but more than anything else, this is what you should be focusing on. All other survival actions depend on it. Your ability to function personally, your ability to work with others, your ability to act when necessary, all rely on your removal of fear. Take the precious time you have now and ensure you are ready to handle whatever the future throws at you.
Life in America in the years ahead is going to look dramatically different from what life in America looks like right now.
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This game is done....dust bowled...
Fed is going to Chikiagoo....
This is the new...
A world beyond the choke-hold (Hah) of OIL...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjmWeypvoQg
That was poor quality video and didn't make much sense.
I have a super high mileage electric vehicle in 3rd prototype stage.
Oil is done, crashing. It may take years to get off it, but it is in the decline phase while we open ourselves to "wild" new ways of doing things.
I have an almost Naderesqe (actually stronger) opinion of modern vehicular systems and also the answers to the same.
No one asks...why do 1.5 million humans die in MV accidents annually, globally.
150,000 in India alone, world's highest...
Next is China, 70,000
Then the US, 3rd at 40,000
I'm calling the emperor naked, Tesla listen up ;-)
One of the great advantages of the Autobahn in Germany and the Autoroute in France is when they crash they fly so far off the road so that you can’t see the wreck and there is no opportunity for a gawker traffic jam.
I’d love to get that new Tesla with the “Ludicrous” mode on the Autobahn south of Munich going into the Bavarian Alps.
(but I did do that drive in a Mercedes 5 Series… OMG.. )
Autobahn accidents are NOT pretty, ever. Someone is always doing 280 Kmph...
I remember flying (or so I thought) at about 150 mph and these big 7 series and big benzes and crazy ass motorcycles were passing me like I was doing 90...
While many die while driving their cars, I can't help wonder how many will commit suicide while setting in traffic while waiting on their google drive auto car to get them to work.
Driving seems to be one of the few pleasures left....self determination...freedom as far as it goes. I gave up my fast cars for a diesel pickup, but even still it is more enjoyable than a weakass electric egg beater. My cousin traded his Prius for a Boss 302....it just felt better.
"My cousin traded his Prius for a Boss 302....it just felt better."
Thanks OW - that put a nice smile on my face!
@ORI - Suggest you were doing 150 klic's, not miles FYI; 90 mph is about 145 kph.
130 - 140 miles per hour is pretty close to top end on the majority of pricy vehicles.
230 Kmph....Aachen to somewhere and back...
Ford Mondeo....like a rocket ship compared to the shit Mondeo sold in the US.
Flat out....fastest I've ever driven...
Uhhh, guess you haven't driven a rental car lately. A 2015 Honda Accord goes 155mph because that's where the fuel shutoff is. No shit.
Hands up, who else went straight off to Youtube and searched for 'autobahn accident'?
The world has hundreds of years of oil left, and that is just what has been discovered so far. That and the fact that the old oil fields are being refilled by the Earth as oil is not a 'fossil fuel' - look how deep the fields are, they are below any strata of the crust that contain fossils. Google 'oil fields replenishing themselves', it is quite interesting...
That and the simple fact that your electric car technology still uses battery technology that simply cannot store enough energy to make it practical when compared to internal combustion engines means that oil is far from done. You have way more progress to make comparatively speaking.
Have you tried to crack these intractable problems/shortcomings City? Or are you talking from reading/watching.
Because I'm speaking from a place of doiong...
Don't be wedded to someone else's limits...surprise yourself...
Go long copper...very long copper, like in an extension cord. We have yet to begin to reap the "rewards" of battery production AND disposal. How about a sail car? Just tie your bed sheet to the roof and pray for wind going in your direction.
The answer you are looking for is the elimination of need for travel or energy consumption. The new world paradigm of "non-participation" in our work forces is easily gliding us there. Soon we will no longer need transportation as we will have no where to go and no way to pay for it. Our benevolent and caring leaders will simply have Amazon deliver our weekly biscuits to our door via quad rotor. Soylent anyone?
Not very hopeful are we Oldwood? :-)
It will turn out well, it always does.
It's these frigging timelines...
Interesting, unfortunately the food most people eat is not produced anywhere near them.
Yes, you are correct about the soylent green....
Overheard the 20-something grocery sacker last night "... guess when I get real old, they will just put me on baby food again - won't need teeth"
"You mean like Soylent Green?"
His eyes glazed over with a puzzled guarded look as I continued: "Book, movie, '73, Charlton Heston - watch it and learn!" Still shaking his head as I left. The young have no clue, just like most of their elders.
Where do the calories come from to charge those batteries ORI?
Fossil fuels?
LOL!!
I said the propuslion is electric. I never mentioned batteries...everyone is just assuming...
Watch this space, I will say no more for now ;-)
Well, maybe if Chinese perpetrators in traffic accidents stopped crunching skulls of their victims to reduce the payout burden, their stats would go down.
The big question is: WHERE THE FUCK IS NOPAT.
44, Yes, that is strange. He's been here since the beginning (over 6 years) and told me he knew all the originals here at ZH. We saw him in the chat room all the time and then a week or two ago, POOF! Gone. Account scrubbed clean.
He probably tripped on a nail gun after leaking info to M. Synder about the comming doom.
Started TaeKwonDo and Kickbox 6 years ago at age 52. Today I'm 58 and in better shape than I was at 28 (sad really) and in better shape than a lot of people half my age. Get fit (physically AND mentally), meet contacts (helps finding a job), and learn a skill.
Added bonus is you can put it on a resume.
Plus it costs less than most gym memberships.
Still too much $$$? Cancel your Cable (you can stream any TV shows/movies via Internet anyway).
Started drinking heavily 27 years ago at age 18. I knew how fucked up the world was then, and I wanted to ensure that whenever *it* happened, I would be as drunk as possible.
Will you be able to write a resume when all you have around you are radioactive rocks and dirt?
as ye visualize so shall ye manifest. happy trails. :3
That is a great plan. You will find, one day, that you have had a whole life's worth of alcohol and you can stop. kinowing you have done your part. You may be surprised at how the world looks then....without hangovers.
In truth if it wasn't for that 4AM OHMYGOD feeling I'd probably still drink.
Very nice. Generally speaking same here, except I do Jiu-jitsu (gi and no-gi) and Judo. The training place is simply closer. That most interesting man in the world has a commercial something like: running on a treadmill will never get you the same result as running from a lion. Darn right. I have always excercised to some degree but often wondered what the point was. Now the point is "free roll." Sure you can be strong, but do you really know how to use the strength that you have? I am comfortable in saying that I don't tap out that much anymore to more experienced folks in training. Good life skill IMHO.
i run about 70 miles per month. i'm the same age, but it gives me a feeling of empowerment. i want to be in good shape if the world goes down hard.
That's a lot of laps around the ship deck
70 miles/month = 0.0972 mph
Pretty slow if you ask me. ; )
That's not sad, man, that's awesome. It's good to know there's always still room to grow.
Broken clock....
BULLSHIT. CNBC says all is well.
It's as if no one understands the reprecussions of a collapse. People don't realize the money printing didn't work. Everyone thinks they are saved! Well, they aren't. Finance is a thievery game and economics is a sham.
Didn't work for who?
The outcome has been the opposite of the stated goals. As it is with all government programs.
Was talking to some people the other day, they still think buying and holding stocks is "investing" and having a company match 401K is all you need....Public education has completely brainwashed this country, holy shit.
Same reason peope take pills to cure things that pills caused. They want it easy, they want it quick, they want someone else to do the work. We live in a nation of lazy fucking decadent slobs with no work ethic, no sense of reality and high time preference.
It's no better over here in the UK. I was trying to convince my brother back in February how things were starting to teeter on the edge but he was determined there no way what I was saying could ever come to pass (empty shelves/capital controls) and naturally he must be right and I must be wrong because he used to work in the city and I'm 'just' a farmer's wife. Absolutely impossible to convince him that his investments were anything other than rock solid safe 'because the government guarantees the banks' <headdesk>.
His home is mortgaged, his car is on tick, his main disposable income comes from a rental property that's also mortgaged but still he puts money into 'investments' instead of paying down his debts. I love him but... ugh. What happens when his investments have tanked, he's lost his job and the banks have foreclosed on his mortgages? I confess to a little schadenfreude in looking forward to asking him how clever he's feeling when he eventually swallows his pride and bails to our farm (but only because I know we'll see him alright).
I'm too old for martial arts. That's why I have firearms.
Firearms are martial arts. Do Tai Chi. Martial arts for old farts.
And who says the US doesn't have a Warrior mentality.
If you're older you can do Akido. The art of redirecting your opponents moves and energy against them.
"Firearms are martial arts" --popular style = Ching Ching Bang Phu
I've embraced the Scottish martial art of Fook Yu!
It's mostly just head butting and then kicking people when they're on the ground.
no one is too old for aikido. :3
The sheeple I know are getting nervous now.
Yes, but the NFL season begins tonight. Another more important thing about which to be nervous.
Watch black people on steroids run into each other at full tilt.
Peak of civilization.
Need Bread to take to the Circus (maximus).
McD Burger Buns & NFL anyone?
You forgot the white rapists and cheaters, too.
Such wholesome, Amerikkkan family entertainment!
Ba Ba Ba Ba, what is happening? Ba Ba Ba the wolf is at the doorstep mommy! Don't worry honey the TV says everything is find and president Obama is sending us our check next week.
Currency wars, trade wars, world wars and then nothing. You can't print your way out of nothing. Somebody call the police.
There's something strange, in the neighborhood. Who ya gonna call? Notebusters!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpKy-ESNqS0
There are market short ETFs, some examples: SRTY, SPXS, EDZ
These can be invested by retirement accounts, and are updated daily...an option, but timing is always dicey.
You know shit's gettin real when Snyder doesn't even bother giving it to us in list form. This is how close we are to the end, people. NO LISTS!
Michael was too busy reading and subsequently quoting Brandon Smith's work to put together his list for us today. For once we were spared ...
they're using my thesis that I posted here a few weeks ago
It is happening and it's very surreal since the masses of sheeple just keep right on grazing. My own family is oblivious to the whole thing.
The more you pay attention and learn what's really going on, the more other's ignorance about it when you converse shows. A lot of people have absolutely no clue, and it's amazing how few are really informed. I'd call 3% as a guess. The rest, as you said, just keep on grazing, or they actually just back away from what they perceive to be unpleasant, negative news. (We've heard that 'denial' is not a river in Egypt, but that's how it is out there.)
I like how this guy is looking for "pats on the back" for making the same call he has repeated over the last five years..... the market is going to melt down......, the market is going to melt down...... any minute now..... here it is.... no wait, this time......, no wait...., it's coming......
Yeah no shit it's coming. We all know it's coming, but NOBODY knows when. When it does finally happen people won't know what the fuck just hit them.
Doc, I think you and I at least agree on one thing: whenever *it* happens, it will be too late. One day, we'll wake up (maybe) and find that the entire system hasn't crashed - it's ground to a complete stop.
All of these little "halts" are just drills for when everything goes live. Then they pull it.
Yep, exactly. There will be no crash like 2001, and 2008, because they will simply close the casino. Thanks for playing, here's your spider man towel. Have a nice day.
Damn it. I want a Janet Yellen bobblehead doll instead. Can I exchange?
They tried closing the casino in China - lasted about a month. Then gravity happened. They can stop a crash to the bottom, but they can't stop the bottom.
"Then they pull it."...
Larry Silverstein, Buzzy Krongard and Dov Zakheim here to the rescue Again... "9/11 Part Deux" will happen first before those next series of skyscrapers melt down along with alll that QE!...
Have to rally the sheep with the next major pretext for WWIII to divert attention from the fact that they no longer have any money protecting them only the state!!!
?when?
This is the fucking problem, I bought a ranch, got goats, chickens, rabbits, built a huge garden, subsequently got laid off and after 3 years eventually had to sell because I couldn't afford living like that waiting for the happening.
It could happen tomorrow or in ten years, when all governments collude and control the markets who is to say they can't continue for another decade?
Yeah yeah but the market is breaking see, the dollar is losing its reserve currency etc etc.
Yeah well maybe, but the timing is very important and only insiders know when that will be.
I think even 'insiders' (if there are any) don't know. I have an alternative to the 'prep' answer. Be content with who you are and what you have at any given moment. Be thankful for each day. Live to help others. When the SHTF, be there to help others through it. Plan on life being crappy and bumpy, and then decide ahead of time to do the best you can with what you have.
I’ve got cases of expired food in my basement.
Every time I go grocery shopping I buy bags of food and toiletries then toss them on the pile.
I like giving expired canned stuff to the food bank and get a tax writeoff. Also, that's what I call the "premium" stuff I give away to beggars, 'cause when you're hungry, you can't be choosers as long as the giver has the upper hand.
My 2 cents is that the meltdown is getting a little more airtime lately because of what Martin Armstrong is saying based on pi or cake or tea leaves or whatever. Armstrong does have a following and his D-day is October 1. It probably wouldn't hurt to have a few bottles of water and some Hershey bars in the cold room.
SHUT.IT.DOWN
Alternatively
PULL.THE.PLUG
Or far worse: "Pull my finger!" - Lloyd Blankfein
Wonder how the FED is going to prop up the market when so much of their balance sheet and trading desk is devoted to Treasuries and other "quality bonds"
How hard is it really? The cost to the fed is nothing. Just add another zero, in a digital fiat world nobody will notice.
No melt down because. We will do this. See everything is better.
The federal debt has been frozen for 15 weeks at $18,112,975,000,000 after the Treasury Department issued what it calls a "debt issuance suspension period"
At worst it will be a "kerfuffle."
With a slight chance of transitioning to a "rumpus".
SPX up 20 points in about 30 minutes.
YELLEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And Michael Snyder's advice to to do what ? What exactly are the signs of the "collapse" we should be looking for ?
A whole lot of words that ring empty and hollow, half of which were not even his as he was re-publishing what Brandon Smith had written ( and I already read on ZH last night).
I would just a soon go get my palm read by a gypsy lady than follow Mr. Snyder into great confusion and loss of wealth ...
I sincerely hope you are long on stocks and the US dollar.
Dirk, read the tea leaves, your like the Titanic passanger saying 'what leak, I don't see no fuckin leak'
no shit, really.
wow.
Start shorting the major indicies and buy some gold.
I'm non-reglious, but I think the signs of calamity will be that , 'thief in the night; thing.
buy gold, a gun, a prepper's kit and get in a bunker? ?
Better than nothing of course, but most off the shelf prepper's kits aren't very good. You spend a lot and don't get much for it. Far better to do it yourself.
As my Granpapy always said - never short a quiet market.
Nutty Yahoo has been telling us Iran is months away from getting the bomb for 20 years now.
Michael S. has been telling the sky is a few months away from falling for... well... a long time.
Watch old 70’s and 80’s movies.
For example, when looking into background scenes of Cheech And Chong’s (Nice Dreams (1981)) you’ll see all kinds of “Fuck Iran” posters, etc.
A quote from the flick blaming Iranians to get a faster police response.
Desk Clerk: [on phone with police] Look, this is the real thing this time! There are two crazies running around tearing the place up! I already told you our location! ERRRGH! Well, what are they doing, walking over here? Look, I think they're Iranians!... okay, thanks very much.
I got a friend. He said he recently got out of the nut house after a “tune up.” He was in with a guy named Chief who was 6’ 8”. Chief reached up and took the big round clock off the wall.
My friend Joe said to him, “Why did you take the clock down?”
“The second hand is not moving fast enough.”
2 sheeple I know came to me asking for advice on investments in PMs in the recent week. They are getting nervous bigtime. It's sad beacsue they lack the years of knowledge and mental preparation needed for what is coming. I just feel sorry for them when they ask me what they shoudl do with their money and 401Ks.
I have seen too many people get advice from others, and lose their shirts, and then the resulting social fallout. I do not give advice, but I do share my world outlook on finance, and what I do to hedge.
Oh the humanity, f the sheeple....morons, retards, ignorant slaves, praying to false idols...not going to be pretty for them. Pity, all the signs were there, it's easy to see. There is NO excuse for not knowing or preparing....no shits are given to them.
And of course you did nothing to help. Why should you? If everyone knew how important and omnipotent you are, perhaps they would not bother you. Prick!
Somebody needs a hug.
You have NO idea what I did to help, which is a lot. I gave speeches, wrote a book, voted with my dollars and my feet and protested. What did you do?
What'd you do to help oh righteous one!?
Nah, it's different this time. Party on!
It's Not Just Wild Swings in the Markets that we're seeing. There is also Crazy Volatility in the $USD!
Big sale coming on canned food in October, as capitulation begins to takehold in prepper community.
Did you notice you are bleeding out of your ears.
Awful lot of asshole know-it-all comments on this topic. Apparently looking for validation of their callous bullshit. Until you come to realize the "Sheeple" may well be your mother, brother or children.Then comes the guilt.
No one deserves what the manipulation and greed will cause, save for those responsible.
But some of the sheeple to which you refer will not even take the smallest step in guarding their future. I also have children riding high on the wave of prosperity built on credit.
It is not only about money or physical preps, but about gaining some knowledge and skills - try to teach some kids to garden, build, repair - I have tried many times and now must preserve the life I have. No more room for guilt.
The markets crash and Fukushima has flooded.
Let them eat depletion!
I'm still not sure which is the correct path, me being prepared for the last eight years or people I know that have gone on wonderful holidays, bought toys, and dined out most of the time. All I do know is that I have peace of mind - others are nervous or have chosen to ignore the signs.
"Life in America in the years ahead is going to look dramatically different from what life in America looks like right now."
As Yogi might have said, life in America looks dramatically different than it does right now.
Cali already looks different.
We are born with only 2 fears, fear of falling and fear of loud noises. All other fears are conditioned into us and can can be conditioned out. I find having a Dog or a Mastiff at my side and as an extention of my senses essential to survival.
Live by the words of Herger from the 13th Warrior "Don't worry little brother, your destiny is set"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20p4V-NhzqI
True. I used to panic and hyperventilate when stopped by the police, then one day I realized it wait a tick, this motherfucker works for me!
Yes you pay their salary but they dont work for you... They are more like mall security, there to protect government assets which you also pay for but don't own...
The better realization is "he can be fooled." Just act normal. No twitches. No gut knots. Calm. Police are fooled by calm.
phony vol, that is all
how is the market going to crash?
there is no retail participation as far as i know (does anyone know how to estimate this?)
the core of the scam is the knowledge of when the plug gets pulled, and it only gets pulled when emough lemmings have marched to the edge holding the bag.
401k made this scam easier to pull off no doubt, but wouldnt we need plain jane to open a retail account as well?
I disagree with the writer. Only about 1% of americans are invested in the market if you take out 401k. Most investors like myself were wiped out of the last crash. 99% of stock owners are the corporations and bankers so fuck this market!
I disagree with the writer. Only about 1% of americans are invested in the market if you take out 401k. Most investors like myself were wiped out of the last crash. 99% of stock owners are the corporations and bankers so fuck this market!