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The Tepper Top: Appaloosa Founder's Bullishness Fizzles
"The 17-year river [of reserve currency buildup and QE around the world] is no longer flowing," warns Appaloosa's David Tepper, and "turbulence" is now the norm.
Yesterday we cautioned that today's Tepper appearance may not be the euphoric 'buy it all' event that so many people hoped for (especially since a month ago we laid out Tepper's 13F where dramatic changes and a substantial derisking hinted to us that Tepper may have called the market top with this positions).
Will Tepper be bearish this time? http://t.co/Eshy9VoOQe
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2015
Sure enough Tepper is worried about the Quantitative Tightening we have recently exposed (and here), saying "people claim China and EM won't make a difference... they are wrong... you can't have it both ways," and the shift will be much faster than anyone expects. As we previously explained...
Let’s start with risk assets, proxied by global equity prices. It would appear at first glance that the correlation is negative in that when central bank liquidity is expanding, equities are falling and vice versa. Of course this likely suggests a policy response in that central banks are typically “late” so that they react once equities are falling and then equities tend to recover.
If we shift liquidity forward 6 quarters we can see that the market “leads” anticipated” additional liquidity by something similar.
This is very worrying now in that it suggests that equity price appreciation could decelerate easily to -20 or even 40 percent based on near zero central bank liquidity, assuming similar multipliers to the post crisis period.
When the flows change, you have to change positions - VIX 22 is too low - "expect surging vol", 18x PE is too high - "margins are set to drop - I have problems with earnings growth and problems with multiples" - "Flat stocks is not a bad place to be."
As Tepper concludes "we don't have a cushion of safety in the stock market anymore."
Tepper speaks...
Or put another way...
You got rivers flowing, bodies of water crashing, the opposite flow now, Marty McFly ok?, PBOC should watch back to the future - Tepper
— GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) September 10, 2015
Tepper's market-topping conclusion: unless central banks are on our side again, then "every rally should be sold."
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algos following Tepper
Gold
Stocks
3 2 1 and Houston we have PM liftoff....the Silver Eagle has landed....we have slipped the surly bonds of counter-party risk....
try to access silver......good luck
Funny how they've let gold run a bit in the morning lately only to choke it down the rest of the day. Looks like a rinse/repeat.
Yup...right on cue, our daily dose of investment advice coming out from the mouth of a Jew....yesterday it was China asking Larry Motherfuckin Fink and now this. I guess everybody is still open to getting fleeced.
The river reversing course was a good analogy. Only problem was he should have mentioned it was the Pacific Ocean on the other side of that river.
Cash
Bonds
flat stocks, huh, how about zero stocks. tepper sir: any stox is a mistake, sell the bitchez, bitchez...
Investment "cash" or physical "cash"?
There's some differences.
(PS- I prefer "None of the Above")
retest 15,500 coming and 1860 s and p. moar qe, of course...
self fulfilling swirl in the making. what about profits and fwd pe, ha...
Fify
Smart man.
So who is president?
Barrack Obama.
The homo muslim commie from Illinois!?!?!
President = Puppet
It is a reference to Back To The Future. Yes, Barry is a puppet. But he knows exactly what he is doing. He wholeheartedly supports the communist overthrow of Christianity and capitalism. He is the wet dream of the Weather Underground, and when the dust settles you progressives will have a lot of explaining to do.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HWMIwziGrAQ
Well Hawaii actually. And Indonesia.
Insiders and club members are moving the last bit of their wealth into tax shelter islands all over the world. Can't wait to see how the western governments fund their liabilities for another year. Simply baffling to me at this point. Glad I have a good tax attorney. I think we all know what happens next.
The Stockmarket is the place to be!!!
Jeb Bush announced a tax cut for the rich. You don’t want to be poor... do you?
Read his lips?
I'm sorry, what? Didn't the ECB just lower rates, again.
CB's around the world continue to push cheap money as the panacea for low growth and excess debt.
So, what, Tepper is worried the FED may raise 0.25%? Please. That's still free money for CEO's to use for buybacks, golden parachutes, and Christmas stock-ing stuffing.
Two months ago NoDebt said (multiple times) on ZH: "Stay the hell outta the market until further notice. Further notice = QE4 (and it better be bigger than the last one by a ton.)"
One month ago NoDebt said (multiple times) on ZH: "Sell every rip."
Today NoDebt says: "Nobody could have seen this coming. Nobody. Thank God we have towering geniuses of investment knowlege like this to foretell the future."
I will take gold & silver over stocks any day every day.
What a crappy video, out of sync, sounds like it took place in a dumpster.
A dumpster sounds fitting for the likes of crony capitalist pinko commies like Tepper....
I had the greatest dream the other night. Economy collapses, people rise up and take back power.
And the top reality show has a team of contestants (with Navy support) travelling around the world in a nuclear sub. They run silent and deep, then pop up, say off the coast of New Zealand, and take turns firing Tomahawks at some retired hedge fund managers compound.
"Economy collapses, people rise up and take back power"
Unfortunately this has already happened and we are currently living with the results.
"When you see the circus unfold in front of you, sometimes the only thing that keeps you sane is laughing at it." -unkn
does anyone smell some desparation inthe air? that nervous body odor when the twitch can't be controlled...
Tepper's euphemisms...just lots of gibberish basically.
Taxpayers better tighten their jockstraps. If the market blows, all the public pensions and trust funds will be digging deep into the taxpayer pockets to make them whole again. Thanks to the 16th amendment, taxpayers are relegated to the roll of bagholder of last resort.
They already started last year when Obama told Lew to do whatever it takes to make the numbers look good.
C'mon I can't be the only person out of Billions that knows a DEBT JUBILEE RESET is the only possible solution.
slow grind down fought with qe. deflation and overcapacity worldwide. has to bottom ina long painfull period of debt repudiation with bailouts of tbf entities. repeat of 7-8...
Well, all I see are US equity *markets* "off the lows" headed toward even. So...sell that rip, Mortimer!
So this arsehole admits the reason he is rich because Fed got his back.
Yep. And that he is a poster-'boy' for the Crony Capitalist Pinko Commies (or Pinko Fascists, take your pick). What a loser in the category of 'Soul'....
I take it rhis means " Balls off the wall" ?????
"Turbulance" = price discovery? Oh, I am shocked.
10/20/15 my new date of financial doom. Just sounds sort of "mathy". Har-har.
First "Turbulance" then Ambulance.
Bitcoin
Stocks
you leave us no choice.
Nothing wrong with the economy. Wall*Street playing the FED like a fine piano.
Everyone I know or see is working, buying new cars, spending money like drunken sailors.
What about the weather forecast? The Pope and Obama Alaska selfies?
/lmfao
I'm from Pittsburgh. I had no idea this asshole was from Pittsburgh AND had part ownership in my beloved Steelers. Son-of-a.............
Me either. I mean I knew Tepper was from Pittsburgh, but not that he was an owner in the Steelers. I knew Drukenmiller had a stake but not Tepper.
Get a real job.
$3.5B payday one year, $2.5B another? I'm listening ladies. I'm listening.