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Fourth Turning: Crisis Of Trust, Part 1

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

  • Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
  • Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
  • Cultural distress, with the media plunging into a dizzying decay, and a decency backlash in favor of state censorship
  • Technological distress, with cryptoanarchy, high-tech oligarchy, and biogenetic chaos
  • Ecological distress, with atmospheric damage, energy or water shortages, and new diseases
  • Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
  • Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction” 

 The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

September 2015 marks the seventh anniversary of this Fourth Turning Crisis. The economic, social, cultural, ecological, political, and military distress propagates by the minute as the globe is besieged by economic turmoil, increased human suffering, and endemic corruption of the political and ruling classes. The Federal Reserve/Wall Street created global economic implosion was the spark which catalyzed this fourth Crisis period in U.S. history in September 2008. Neil Howe in a 2012 essay assessed the beginning of this Fourth Turning and why 9/11 was not the catalyst:

“Pending stunning new developments, I believe the catalyst occurred in 2008.  It’s a date that is looking better and better as time goes by.  The year 2008 marked the onset of the most serious U.S. economic crisis since the Great Depression.  It also marked the election of Barack Obama, which could yet turn out to be a pivotal realignment date in U.S. political history. In fact, if I had to give the catalyst a month, I would say September of 2008.  The global Dow was in free fall.  Banks were failing.  Money markets froze shut.  Business owners held their breath.

9/11 will go down as one of the more famous crisis precursors in American history.  A crisis precursor is an event that foreshadows a crisis without being an integral part of it.  Other such precursors in American history include the Stamp Act Rebellion (1765), or Bleeding Kansas (1856), or perhaps the Red Scare (1919).”

The initial spark has triggered a chain reaction of unyielding responses by those in power, including: handing $700 billion of taxpayer funds to the Wall Street bankers whose reckless pervasive greed and fraudulent derivative products caused the worldwide conflagration, 0% interest rates for the last seven years, a quadrupling of the Federal Reserve balance sheet to $4 trillion through QE to infinity, government stimulus spending which increased the national debt from $10 trillion to $18 trillion in seven years, ongoing $600 billion annual deficits, using fraudulent accounting to disguise the insolvency of the Too Big To Fail Wall Street banks, and a conscious choice by corrupt politicians and captured government regulators to not prosecute one criminal banker.

None of these initial responses have solved any of our pervasive problems or averted further emergencies. Not only haven’t these responses resolved the intractable economic conundrums facing the world, but they have exacerbated the next round of monetary disasters rapidly approaching. Strauss and Howe predicted the initial catalyst event would not worsen into a full-fledged catastrophe because the powers that be would find a way to avert the initial danger and stabilize the situation “for a while”. The key point was those benefiting from the existing corrupt world order would do whatever it took to temporarily forestall a calamity which would result in their downfall, loss of power, and ultimate imprisonment. They have successfully delayed the regeneracy phase of this Fourth Turning by turning on the monetary debt spigot full throttle.

It is highly unlikely we will have a resolution to this Crisis period for at least another ten years, so if you think the worst is over you are badly mistaken. If the climax is somehow accelerated like the Civil War, it will likely result in bloody wars, with a horrific death toll. The five year lull can be viewed as the world passing through the eye of an immense hurricane. There will always be ebbs, flows and lulls within a 20 year long Crisis, as seen in previous Fourth Turnings.

The Boston Tea Party catalyst spark occurred in December 1773, but the fireworks didn’t get going until 1775 and the regeneracy Declaration of Independence event in 1776. The Civil War Fourth Turning had no lulls. The catalyst election of Abraham Lincoln to the regeneracy event of the First Battle of Bull Run was only nine months. The acceleration did not allow for cooler heads to prevail. The result was ghastly death and destruction. The 1929 Stock Market Crash catalyst was followed by a three year lull until FDR’s election and New Deal programs marked the regeneracy.

In my previous four part article Fourth Turning – The Shadow of Crisis Has Not Passed written early in 2015 I attempted to explain generational theory, provided evidence we are still early in this Crisis, pondered the potential clash between the citizens and our debased, dysfunctional, captured government, and contemplated the kind of war which will thrust the world through the gate of history towards an uncertain future. The misconceptions regarding generational theory and the Fourth Turning keep a vast swath of otherwise lucid thinkers from understanding the implications of generational mood changes which drive the cyclical nature of history. The cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias of most Americans blinds them to the lessons of history and leaves them vulnerable to the winter that has beset the nation.

The Fourth Turning is not a prophecy or some Nostradamus like predictions. It’s a logical theory based upon the average time span of a long human life and the four phases of that life: childhood, young adulthood, mid-life, and old age. The interaction of generations during their phases of life is what produces the profound mood changes throughout history. The dramatic events during the course of antiquity are less important than how society responds to them. The reaction is substantially determined by the season of the saeculum and the generational mood that aligns with that season. We’ve entered the Winter season, with bitterly cold days ahead and intense blizzard-like conditions forecast for the next decade.

The ignorance of linear thinking advocates regarding the cyclical nature of history is either due to their “progressive” public educational brainwashing or their intellectual inability to grasp the obvious. Our daily existence is cyclical with 24 hours in a day, 365 days in year based upon earth’s orbiting the sun, 12 months divided into four seasons, and the circle of life – birth through death is the ultimate cycle perpetuating life on this planet. There are dozens of astronomical, mathematical, religious, sleep, agricultural, social, economic and war cycles known to man. Martin Armstrong has a cycle theory predicting the collapse of government between 2016 and 2020. The Kondratiev Wave theory and Elliott Wave Theory are preached by “experts” and followed by millions. Of course, many of these “experts” are busy selling their predictions in newsletters to make a buck.

The thought leaders in academia, politics, business, and mass media perpetuate the myth of never ending linear progress created by technological advances and the ever increasing intellectual evolution of mankind. The hubris of these people is incomprehensible when viewing history. The myopic delusions of these arrogant egotists are easily shattered by the horrific regressions of history. Were the Great Depression and the 65 million people killed during World War II progress for mankind? Was Stalin’s murder of 20 million Russian peasants a linear progression? Was Mao’s Great Leap Forward murder of 45 million Chinese peasants really a leap forward? Was the death of 5% of the U.S. male population in the space of four years during the Civil War really progress?

Mankind and civilization do not advance in a straight line. Progression and regression alternate in a cyclical fashion. As generations die out, memories of the previous cycle are forgotten, and the mistakes are repeated again. Human nature does not change. Good, evil, greed, fear, bravery, honesty, arrogance, sacrifice, and truth intermingle to drive humans through the cycles of history.

Strauss & Howe were economists and historians who attempted to make some sense out of the seemingly convoluted twists of history. They deciphered a pattern which could be traced back for centuries based upon the age and alignment of generations throughout history. They never attempted to capitalize on their work by selling newsletters or peddling their predictions about the future. When they published their work in 1997 they couldn’t predict the exact events which would drive the next Fourth Turning, but they could estimate the general timing and the core elements which would drive the crisis: debt, civic decay, and global disorder. These areas were neglected, denied, and unaddressed during the Unraveling period from 1984 through 2008. To read their words now, eighteen years after they were written and eleven years before this Fourth Turning struck, is haunting, as they describe precisely where we stand today:

“As the Crisis catalyzes, these fears will rush to the surface, jagged and exposed. Distrustful of some things, individuals will feel that their survival requires them to distrust more things. This behavior could cascade into a sudden downward spiral, an implosion of societal trust.”

“But as the Crisis mood congeals, people will come to the jarring realization that they have grown helplessly dependent on a teetering edifice of anonymous transactions and paper guarantees. Many Americans won’t know where their savings are, who their employer is, what their pension is, or how their government works. The era will have left the financial world arbitraged and tentacled: Debtors won’t know who holds their notes, homeowners who owns their mortgages, and shareholders who runs their equities – and vice versa.”

The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

Regeneracy – Where Art Thou?

The regeneracy during a Fourth Turning is when a sense of urgency about institutional dysfunction and civic vulnerabilities coalesce the nation or large blocs of the homeland behind a strong leader to tear down the existing social, economic and cultural order and replace it with something different. The different can be better or far worse. The Declaration of Independence, First Battle of Bull Run, and election of FDR marked the regeneracy in prior American Fourth Turnings. They all occurred within four years of the initial catalyst. It is now seven years into this Fourth Turning and a clear regeneracy event has not materialized. This has been a frustrating development for those who are impatient to get this Fourth Turning moving at a quicker pace. But, each Fourth Turning will proceed at its own pace dependent upon events, the country’s reaction to those events, and the leaders we choose during the Crisis.

Neil Howe, in his 2012 essay pondered the regeneracy issue and described it more as an era than an event. It requires something dramatic that unifies the country or causes the people to break into separate unified factions.

“I think it’s pretty obvious that the regeneracy has not yet started.  So how long do we need to wait for it?  And how will we know when it starts?  Those are good questions.  I recently went back over The Fourth Turning to recall how we dated the stages of the each of the historical 4Ts.  And I found that we were very explicit about dating the other three stages (catalyst, climax, and resolution) for each 4T.  But we were always a bit vague about dating the regeneracy, treating it more like an era than a date.  There is a reason for this.  We may like to imagine that there is a definable day and hour when America, faced by growing danger and adversity, explicitly decides to patch over its differences, band together, and build something new.  But maybe what really happens is that everyone feels so numb that they let somebody in charge just go ahead and do whatever he’s got to do.  I’m thinking of how America felt during the bleak years of FDR’s first term, or during Lincoln’s assumption of vast war powers after his repeated initial defeats on the battlefield.

The regeneracy cannot always be identified with a single news event.  But it does have to mark the beginning of a growth in centralized authority and decisive leadership at a time of great peril and urgency.  Typically, the catalyst itself doesn’t lead directly to a regeneracy.  There has to be a second or third blow, something that seems a lot more perilous than just the election of third-party candidate (Civil War catalyst) or a very bad month in the stock market (Great Power catalyst).

We are still due for such a moment.  We have not yet reached our regeneracy.  When it happens, I strongly suspect it will be in response to an adverse financial event.  It may also happen in response to a geopolitical event.  It may well happen over the next year or two.  Given the pattern of historical 4Ts, it is very likely to happen before the end of the next presidential term (2016).”

As previously stated, The Fourth Turning does not predict what series of events will trigger a regeneracy. It lays out a generational framework regarding how generations will react to the events. As Howe points out, the regeneracy requires a 2nd or 3rd blow which seems even more perilous than the initial shock. His suspicion that it will be in response to an even worse financial debacle than 2008 and very likely to happen before the next election in 2016 appears to be dead on. The oblivious trusting masses will again be shocked and bewildered when the second devastating shock wave of this Crisis strikes in the next twelve months. The next global financial meltdown, caused by the Federal Reserve, along with central bankers in Europe, Japan and China, will create a fearful panic and an intense urgency for a strong self-assured leader who promises to rescue the nation from peril. The panic will coincide with the presidential election in November 2016.

The “Great Divider” Barack Obama squandered his chance to be the leader who united the nation when he proved to be nothing more than a captured political hack, bowing down to the corporate fascist establishment, while stirring wide spread resentment with his culture war rhetoric and inability to inspire confidence with his toothless hope and change sloganeering. His failure to reign in or prosecute the greedy sociopathic Wall Street criminals, his acquiescence to the military industrial complex by expanding our war mongering and sowing chaos in the Middle East, and his total disregard for fiscal restraint as the country’s long term financial picture rapidly deteriorates, proved that he would not be the Fourth Turning Grey Champion leader.

In retrospect, neither McCain nor Romney would have united the country, as they are both crony capitalist establishment figures. The mood of the country has darkened substantially in the last year as people are fed up with their deteriorating economic circumstances, sick of both political parties, and angry at the unrestrained illegal immigrant invasion on our southern border.

I’m beginning to believe the nation will not be unified behind a common cause when the coming financial eruption unleashes molten lava of chaos, punishing economic distress, civil strife, class warfare, race wars, and ultimately global war. As Strauss and Howe foretold, the establishment (aka corporate fascist military industrial surveillance state) has seen a sequential loss of popular trust as their blatant corruption, sociopathic stranglehold on the levers of power, and unrelenting greed have angered the critical thinking aware citizens of this country. The next leg down in this Greater Depression will sever the remaining trust, disintegrating any remaining support for the existing civic order. What comes next will be heavily dependent upon whether the 5% to 10% of liberty minded believers in the Constitution are able to gain the trust of the masses. The odds will be long, but no longer than they were during that bitter winter at Valley Forge in 1777-1778.

“It could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed. With savings worth less, the new elders will become more dependent on government, just as government becomes less able to pay benefits to them. Before long, America’s old civic order will seem ruined beyond repair.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

In Part 2 of this article I will ponder possible Grey Champion, prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy, try to assess which channels of distress are likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and lastly make some guesses about potential climaxes.

 

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Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:32 | 6538065 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Forget about the Fourth Turning, I look forward to Trump leading us through the First Turning. Oh glorious American Empire.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:52 | 6538120 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

"Dis-dress" - "Dat-dress"... sounds like my wife when she's hormonal.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:20 | 6538214 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Quinn:

Have you not read any other book, in the last two fucking decades, besides The Fourth Turding penned by those two shyster academics, Stress & How?  You just keep puking up the same shit over and over again.

Neil Howe is as dense as you about 9/11.

"9/11 will go down as one of the more famous crisis precursors in American history."

Just what the hell is that supposed to mean to the over 3000 people murdered on 9/11?

"A crisis precursor is an event that foreshadows a crisis without being an integral part of it."

Like maybe JFK... RFK... MLK... Waco... Oklahoma City... The Liberty... etc... etc... ain't 'an integral part of it' ...?!

You say ...
"I’m beginning to believe the nation will not be unified behind a common cause when the coming financial eruption unleashes molten lava of chaos, punishing economic distress, civil strife, class warfare, race wars, and ultimately global war."

Wake the fuck up! 

'I’m beginning to believe'...
You're 9/11MORON ... and a Traitor not only to truth and your nation but to yourself and your family.

StuckyQuinn another miserable FAIL .

(You'll just have to repeat 9/11 Special Class for another year.)

The 9/11 Litmus Test !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6O4LE0eTYc

 

ps:  By the way your lousy, Sycophantic Blog is infested with malicious malware.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:20 | 6538337 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

so you dont like the theory?  :)

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 00:39 | 6538810 Talleyrand
Talleyrand's picture

I don't like his use of the word "nation". It used to mean a community of people with a common language, culture, ethnicity and world view. Here, a nation seems to mean all those who happen to live within the borders claimed by a particular government thuggery. There's a big difference. 

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 10:31 | 6539321 Slomotrainwreck
Slomotrainwreck's picture

Actually, our nation no longer exists.



 

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 22:18 | 6549099 Ace006
Ace006's picture

It's just a cool place to live with nice scenery for the Muslims and Zulus to enjoy with us. Over a brewski together.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 20:58 | 6604814 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture

Pierre,  Quinn weaves together a cohesive article backed by plenty of data.  

A reasonable theory like that put forth in the Fourth Turning deserves to be updated with progressively supportive data.

You on the other hand, simply bitch, criticize, and contribute nothing.  

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 09:14 | 6539211 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

The theory is quite intriging. This author's ideological bullshit is quite annoying.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 23:15 | 6538671 Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

That is like saying, when I FART IN THE SHOWER< it doesnt stink!

Have you every tried it? its not recommeneded. 

The best thing we can do to honor those fallen in 911 is to simply REMEMBER then, and give prayers to their family. To help them cope. 

The stock market, is in shemitah, and the last time that happened, we had the 2001 sept 11 attacks, and stock market drops like back in 2008

I wonder if this guy is picking up another pattern for 2015. BIZZARE! ==> http://www.bit.ly/1fMcakI  

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:46 | 6539171 WOWurstupid
WOWurstupid's picture

yep it is the same old Quinn bullshit , but that is what happens when you read the WRONG Book. The answers are in THE BOOK.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:53 | 6538123 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Yeah, I am thinking we just skip this fourth turning.  It doesn't sound like a lot of fun.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:44 | 6538234 booboo
booboo's picture

Ripping the chainsaw from the grasp of the political class as they hack away at the tree of liberty will be difficult at first but once they start folding (a quality they all share thankfully) it will come fast.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 00:06 | 6538766 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

 

 

A far more important question is what stage of turning is Bruce/Caitlyn Jenner currently in?

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 13:08 | 6539663 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

stomach

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 13:44 | 6539766 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

LOL!  It seems a lot didn't get it or have no sense of humor. 

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 22:21 | 6549115 Ace006
Ace006's picture

Quite so. 

Somebody had to bring us back on track. Good job, monkeyboy.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:18 | 6538167 junction
junction's picture

You think times are stomach turning now, wailt til Halloween when Obama takes off his mask and shows he is a real alien, not just a border crosser.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:46 | 6538235 booboo
booboo's picture

or could be a cross dressing border collie

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 22:00 | 6540941 Dancing Disraeli
Dancing Disraeli's picture

Or a cross alien boarder.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 22:22 | 6549121 Ace006
Ace006's picture

I wonder if he dresses up like Gunga Din in the Family Quarters. 

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 23:43 | 6538714 Pickleton
Pickleton's picture

"The regeneracy during a Fourth Turning is when a sense of urgency about institutional dysfunction and civic vulnerabilities coalesce the nation or large blocs of the homeland behind a strong leader to tear down the existing social, economic and cultural order and replace it with something different. "

 

 

Trump's election and his first term are likely the regeneracy.  He'll likely be elected as the strong man result of the financial implosion we've all been expecting.

He will NOT be a net positive.  Quite the opposite - as an arrogant, ego maniacal, strong man, it's guaranteed he will wash this country in blood.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 01:38 | 6538876 RevIdahoSpud3
RevIdahoSpud3's picture

Can you really say it will be Trump that washes the country in blood? For the last decade Americans have been buying guns and ammo at unprecidented rates. They (including myself) have sensed something in the air was coming down and that was before Trump put his face to the sunrise. With or without Trump I think the country was heading to a blood letting or else why has everyone been buying  scalpels?

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 09:10 | 6539199 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Why has everyone been buying scalpels ?

You all think you are Michael Angelo and are about to scalp marble into David's statue!

Elon Musk loves you!

Trump wants you to dump in his bankrupt casino !

See the difference between a searcher of new horizons and a man who bets on the n° 0 ?

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 22:28 | 6549143 Ace006
Ace006's picture

It always amazes me when someone thinks that a particular candidate has an exclusive franchise on arrogance and egomania.

From whom do you think we should choose? Click, Clack, or Mr. Rogers?

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:35 | 6538073 Talcott
Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:14 | 6538159 Renfield
Renfield's picture

LOL, fer sure.

I see we have a site in common. Good point, anyway. Trusting in the power of the constitution doesn't address the issue, which is big mama government, here to take care of us all.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 11:05 | 6539386 Slomotrainwreck
Slomotrainwreck's picture

Freedom loving societies neither need a constitution nor a governing body. All that is necessary is a self regulating community which is based on the non-agression principle. Here's a quick read on how it's done.

e reader https://mises.org/library/market-liberty  audio book http://freekeene.com/2007/12/26/free-audiobook-the-market-for-liberty/

 

governments are coercive monopolies run by sociopaths.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:48 | 6538106 ToSoft4Truth
ToSoft4Truth's picture

Every #American is exceptional. 

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:59 | 6538132 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

u forgot "ignorant and delusinal" after the exceptional...

but we get it....

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:49 | 6538108 PoasterToaster
PoasterToaster's picture

This naive faith in authoritarianism is a major shortcoming of this hypothesis.  Horse, cart.  Moreover, what if that was a passing phase in human development?  Perhaps the human world is growing past authority.  Those flag worshippers may soon be a living relic of the past.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:22 | 6538178 Ol Man
Ol Man's picture

I hope so...

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:00 | 6538273 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Flag worshipers..yes they are all over here. They don't want to hear about "conspiracy theories", which mean anything that FOX NEWS doesn't tell them is truth.

Fuck them. When they are ready they will come. They will come either way,  it's not that far off now. God help us all.

 

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 22:04 | 6538526 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

 Moreover, what if that was a passing phase in human development?  Perhaps the human world is growing past authority.  Those flag worshippers may soon be a living relic of the past.

 

I doubt it.  If it was a passing phase wouldn't we be moving past the "7 deadly sins" and these other things that have been part of the human condition for so long?  These items and the authoritarian flag worshippers you mention are likely very similar in that they will be around so long as we are human...  While they may lose faith in the US flag going forward or the institutions of the USA, I have no doubt that they will just queue up behind another one, or a new one after this one is over.  And the process just beings again.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:50 | 6539176 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

I see the potential for an historical parallel. Just as the printing press played an influential role in the breakup of the Catholic Church. the web is playing the same role leading to the breakup of authoritarian states.

Free markets are relatively new to human history. The baby has grown strong enough to break out of its shell.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 22:31 | 6549150 Ace006
Ace006's picture

I didn't get that he had faith in authoritarianism, just that that is where it ends up when people need to be spanked.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:49 | 6538112 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I trust no one.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 19:58 | 6538129 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

and having read this,

everybody have a wonderful weekend.....

cause this country is DOOMED.....

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:04 | 6538139 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

FUBAR

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:34 | 6539161 IRC162
IRC162's picture

Shoild I wait until Shmita day to open my presents, or can we open them on Shmita Eve?  I can't wait to see what I got!

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 13:47 | 6539774 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

Priceless! LOL

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:01 | 6538135 sschu
sschu's picture

In the original book, the writers clearly state that there is no guarantee that the people will make the right choice and pull itself out of the crisis that engulfs the country.  I am beginning to think this is more than likely, we are headed for a permanent, long term crisis.

sschu

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:55 | 6538258 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Pray you are wrong.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:01 | 6538279 Central Ohio
Central Ohio's picture

Given that the current President was elected twice, and there is a chance the current VP will be a nominee in 2016, it does seem likely.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 00:52 | 6538825 Librarian
Librarian's picture

Central Ohio:  I understand and respect where you are coming from.  However, after watching Biden on Colbert last night, I don't think so.

On the one hand, Biden has his nose so far up the banker's backsides, that if the IB's were to stop suddenly they would need a team of surgeons to extract Biden from Jamie Dimon's asshole.  I agree that Biden would be perfect to carry on the same old-same old.

On the other hand, Biden demonstrated an old man's pain and sensitivity to the hard knocks of Life.  Biden was close to tears at least twice -- perhaps more.  I left to get a drink as I felt a bit embarassed to watch.

The country's mood has appreciably darkened in the last three years.  I just don't think that "sensitive" is on the menu anymore.  Have you even heard the old reliable "family values" plank even mentioned once this year?

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 14:28 | 6539866 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

librarian, you are aware biden's sons were neck deep with madoff?? if not - think of that..biden is and always was a hired hand for the highest bidder.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:03 | 6538136 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Even those who believe in Liberty, the Constitution and what they stand for, would be hard pressed to attempt leading a nation of sheep, knowing little , or much less care about duty, honor, respect, pride, hard work and loyalty.
As many other times of crisis, it looks almost insurmountable, but, it may be time, for a few good men and women, to come to the aid of their country.
It is hard to lead....it's much easier to follow.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:07 | 6538143 PoasterToaster
PoasterToaster's picture

The Constitution was the first betrayal.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:13 | 6538156 Renfield
Renfield's picture

<<The Constitution was the first betrayal.>>

As elaboration:

<<“The Articles of Confederation created a nation of pre-existing states rather than a government over individuals. Thus, the very idea of a Bill of Rights was irrelevant because the Articles did not entail a government over individuals. The states were equally represented in the union regardless of size of population, only one branch was needed, normal political activity required the support of super majorities, the union was limited to the powers expressly enumerated, and amendment was required to endow the union with powers that weren’t specifically articulated. Amendments required the unanimous approval of all thirteen state legislatures.” Are you seeing this?  It was a very small very DECENTRALIZED government.  THAT is what the people had CHOSEN AFTER THE WAR. Doesn’t this sound eerily familiar to what we are TOLD the basics of  the CONSTITUTION ARE. It is almost exactly what the federalist papers CLAIMS the constitution creates but with just a teeny tiny bit more “authority” so “it runs better”. And of course they had to sell it like it was just a tweak to the system because that is what they were sent to do and they knew the People didn’t want what they had ACTUALLY done. So they sold them a load of crapola about limited government and express powers etc. etc. The guys pushing it wrote the federalist papers to sell it.  The government that EXISTS and that WE EXPERIENCE bears no resemblance to what they DESCRIBE. It is all an illusion.  That’s why we can never “get back to the constitution”.>>

http://www.thetruthaboutthelaw.com/the-peoples-case-for-what-happened-at...

From a site I like, describes the betrayals underlying most of our big-government culture.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 22:45 | 6549194 Ace006
Ace006's picture

Even if the Constitution looked somewhat like the Articles, it doesn't mean it was necessarily constructed with an intent to lull suspicion and to insert fatal flaws.  You have to ask what they were thinking with the General Welfare Clause in Art. I, Sect. 8 and the failure to make clear that it was not a grant of plenary power notwithstanding the listed powers.  But an honest -- and obvious -- interpretation is that it has to be read in conjunction with the effort to enumerate powers.  An honest man, which our Supreme Court majorities have not been, would not choose to focus on the GWC and ignore the enumerated powers. 

Having said that, I have to point out that that's the exact interpretation that the Supreme Court blessed down the pike. 

Still, I don't think that the GWC was a land mine deliberately planted for later use, any more than the Interstate Commerce Clause was intended to be camel's nose under the tent or that anyone secretly set it up so that the legislative power would be transferred in part to the Executive Branch.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 22:36 | 6549170 Ace006
Ace006's picture

I was going to hit the red arrow on that but then realized you are right.  The Constitutional Convention exceeded its brief by a mile.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:15 | 6538314 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

If we had Karl Denninger, Jessie of Cafe FAME, Turd, Mish and Tyler as generals.

Victory would be inevitable!

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:31 | 6539155 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

It is hard to lead....it's much easier to follow.

 

I take the view that reality always wins; these people are divorced from reality and determined to stay that way. I find the best strategy is to separate my affairs from them as much as practically possible while they self-destruct.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:15 | 6538146 scrappy
scrappy's picture

Been thinking deeply about this Admin.

I believe regeneracy will be demanded in 2018 after Armstongs Cycle Call (ECM) fall in 2017. 2016 will be a "head fake" then reality sets in.

Regarding a Prophet, who knows, but Gen X will be on the spot for sure.

Much hard work to be done Institutionally, especially in education.

The generational constellation must work together.

Prepare and Pray.

Let's break the cycle this time.

(The elite use it for their ends)

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:44 | 6538232 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

crappy;

 

What the fuck are you trying to say... come on spit it out moron!

There are thousands of people out there, like SmokeyQuinn, puking up other writers prophecies. 
Some of them, especially the more vague ones, are bound to come true.
Quinn bases his prophecies on questionable, and wholly USSA centric cycles, as he just lightly skips over the truth of the 9/11 WTC  false flag tragedy.
Why would anyone believe this Strauss&Howe badly written junk "science"? 

Try Tarot cards!
After all, out of the whole pack, there are bound to be a few cards that accurately correspond.
SmokeyQuinn is just another wannabee Nostradamus.

Once again Quinn FAILS!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuC_4mGTs98

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:36 | 6538409 scrappy
scrappy's picture

Here is my 911 contribution.

Video - Connecting the dots http://xrepublic.tv/node/5082 Website - Melted Granite http://cosmicconvergence.org/?p=8197

There are cycles and the elites use them and "prophecies" to control us.

What the fuck do you think I mean. End ths shit.

Now get me some TP DP.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 07:39 | 6539092 scrappy
scrappy's picture

One more thing DP.

Did you ever pause to THINK that Mr. Quinn has a wife and children.

He is sticking his neck out far enough.

WTF do you do?

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 22:49 | 6549208 Ace006
Ace006's picture

You criticize Strauss & Howe for bad writing but peddle the 9/11 false flag stuff? Now that is rich.

Next you'll be saying it was a missile that hit the Pentagon.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:38 | 6538217 Sgt_SOS
Sgt_SOS's picture

Oh dear Lord, I was planning on having a nice relaxing weekend as I ponder my future since getting notice that our employment will be terminated Dec. 22nd.  Then I read this. Thanks, I needed this to feel better about my situation...

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 20:57 | 6538262 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

That is very bad news Sgt. Sorry to hear that. Get self employed as fast as you can. Find something you enjoy doing that will make you and your family income.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:20 | 6538339 Sgt_SOS
Sgt_SOS's picture

My wife and I realy have no worries. We've planned and saved and are neary debt fee (wish I could be 100%) and I've always wanted to return to my childhood roots of growing crops and raising livestock. Done with the IT middle management non-stop lifestyle.  Time for a simpler, if not happier life me thinks.  Cheers!

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:46 | 6538457 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Unfort, I think you are seriously delusional.  You know how many pissed off, starving people there's gona be for every 1 person like you?  I assure this isn't gona be little house on the praire.  I wish you luck, but I think you need to really think about what's going to happen.  I maintain things will get so bad that prep will only be 10% of your survival and 90% will be pure luck.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:50 | 6538480 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Forgot to mention I went from 6 figures to unemployment to nothing 10 years ago.  Past few years i've had the time of my life.  If I can do it, anyone can lol.  That aint no shit there lol.  Of course, we aren't in collapse mode yet that changes shit but at least I can say I had a great time if it all goes to hell tomorrow.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:54 | 6538495 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

If you think it's going to get that bad, then the only survivable and defendable ground is rural.  Also, if you think people are going to pillage your crops and leave you starving, the only option is permaculture.  Starving people won't make you starve in a permaculture system.  Perennial crops that are coming ripe during various times will be browsed or gone unnoticed entirely.i was an army officer a long time ago and know a thing or two about defense and logistics.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:48 | 6538468 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

Become a permaculture farmer.  I did and it's great!!!

 

 

"

All the world's problems can be solved in a garden" - Geoff Lawton

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:31 | 6538367 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Nice picture of old George Wash. That's on Venango Trail right by where I grew up. Bet you he never thought that they'd be making the original Night of the Living Dead there 200 years later. Maybe he was praying for Q99X2 to show up. I'm always late. Hey its a long way to travel from Q99X2.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:44 | 6538447 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

If there's WW3 then 'solution to crisis not for at least ten years' is very, VERY accurate.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:48 | 6538463 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Then again, the crisis may get blown to hell along with everything and everyone else.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:53 | 6538488 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

Here in Thailand we are getting ready for a bubble to pop in property like the world has never seen....

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 21:53 | 6538489 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

If we win...Can all naturally occuring plant/ fungi be 'deemed' legal?

Seriously "folk's"...

Shit be needin' to change.

Fri, 09/11/2015 - 23:11 | 6538659 khnum
khnum's picture

Nazi scientists have been given unlimited funds to develop toys and technologies beyond your comprehension for 70 years now,good luck with that revolution.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 00:45 | 6538818 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Strauss was not bright, and neither was Freidman. The next crash will annihilate what's left since the entire economic superstructure imploded March 10th 2008. Extend & Pretend can only last so long and then shit starts to get real mighty quick. I suspect that we are days, if not hours, away from moar casualties on Wall Street. The USA is suspiciously propped up and all markets are aware of that just as everyone was aware of Bear Stearns being overleveraged back in 08. Monday should prove to be interesting given that anyone can blow America over the cliff at this juncture. What is interesting is that the entirety of Western civilization is standing on a very steep precipice all like Lemmings waiting for the herd to push us all off the cliffs in waves of denial. If there is anything we should avoid in all of this I would say that would be denial of what is most certain to come down the pike very shortly.

 

When shit-hits-the-fan it's always best to be on the intake side of the fan blades so you don't get sprayed.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 01:28 | 6538861 RevIdahoSpud3
RevIdahoSpud3's picture

I've only been coming to ZH for less than 2 years so I'll be honest I don't track with everything I read but I intend to keep at it (with the exception of the charts and graphs) because to some small degree things are making more sense than they used to. I credit other readers (with the exception of the smart lips who can just as easily be found at Yahoo) with gains in insight as they have shared their knowledge. In this case I feel like the read was a balancing act between Edward Casey and Timothy Leary with a touch of Vladimir Putin to keep things in check. As my stay here at ZH in the shadows has not  been long I have sensed changes in the content but it's still far and away a better place to be than some chit I've been wading through for the last couple decades. With that said this article had a sense of Liberal gibbeish with language invented on the fly to appeal to an esoteric intelectualism that the author seems to need and to project. That's my take and in addition I don't feel like taking another turn or "turning" to extract something meaningful. I hate it when I persist to the end balancing every word for it's additional meaning and then realize that bullshit was all there was.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 04:27 | 6539005 Element
Element's picture

I just want a wake-up call when this 'turning' thing actually turns. It's version of 'big picture' narrative all seems a bit nebulous and flexible (not in a good way) to me.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 07:50 | 6539089 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

I loved the article but I approached it differently as...

 

I read the book !!!!

 

Do your homework next time.

 

To quote emminem........"Visionary vision is scary"

 

"2 trailer park girls go around the outside....round the outside...round the outside"

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:03 | 6539113 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

I don't want to waste my time reading a whole book about this nonsense.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:05 | 6539122 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

Sure,..revel in your ignorance but than pontificate loudly and have an opinion on something in which you have no expertise.

God I hate 2015 Americans.

This is Zero Hedge?

what happened to this place.

There used to be savvy, smart, and outside the box thinking here.

 

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:10 | 6539130 ToSoft4Truth
ToSoft4Truth's picture

How does one ‘think outside the box’ when we are all immersed in the same box together?

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:29 | 6539151 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

There is no box

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 09:06 | 6539195 clawsthatscratch
clawsthatscratch's picture

Agreed! Pure bullshit with a bunch of gibberish added to confuse, I think JP Barnum would have been amused.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 07:56 | 6539097 MilwaukeeMark
MilwaukeeMark's picture

I could distill the article into a few sentences.
Essentially people are lazy, have short memories and hence are ignorant and easily exploitable. Once they lose their ignorance of the situation, they rebel and change the system just enough so that they can once again become lazy and exploitable. The process takes approximately 80 years (or one human life span) give or take.
How's that for Cliff Notes version?

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:01 | 6539109 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

Quinn, if you think the 'New Deal' socialism was a regeneration you are full of crap.  My dad lived through that and it did a great deal of harm to everyone but the Oligarchs.  Couldn't read the rest of the article because I realize you were having a problem when you wrote it.  Hope you get better and come back to your senses.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 09:32 | 6539233 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

Quinn: "The 1929 Stock Market Crash catalyst was followed by a three year lull until FDR’s election and New Deal programs marked the regeneracy."

Quinn, if you think the 'New Deal' socialism was a regeneration you are full of crap.  

I'm familiar with Quinn's writings to know he wasn't defending Roosevelt. Roosevelt loyalists falsely claim he saved capitalism. In truth, the market regenerated itself in spite of Roosevelt's efforts to prevent it. 

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:04 | 6539118 ToSoft4Truth
ToSoft4Truth's picture

Help me out, fellas.

Tomorrow is Shemurdah.   Are our debts really getting canceled or what?  I need to know.  If Yes, I’m grabbing a Lexus this afternoon.  I’ll kite a check.  Payment free Monday.

???

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:07 | 6539126 MilwaukeeMark
MilwaukeeMark's picture

Depends on your religious affiliation I suppose

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:48 | 6539173 IRC162
IRC162's picture

Particularly Steins and Burgs/Bergs

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:16 | 6539137 falak pema
falak pema's picture

"Corporate fascist military industrial surveillance state"...and NOT A WORD about SOCIALISM!

How did that get past the Von Mises Popes of ZH censorsip ?

This is a outrage to the Tea Party mantra of libertarian philosophy that overtly states : "if you don't put libertarian tea leaves in your posts you are not worthy of worshipping in the house of Ron Paul's Gospel of what the Fourth Turning will be! "

Heresy, I tell you this is heresy. Not a word about dirty socialism as CAUSALITY of Mankind's descent into Orwellian world.

I am shocked, truly shocked!

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 08:36 | 6539162 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

Backing up and taking the long view, cycles are certainly discernable.  Things evolve from the simple to the complex.  They peak.  Then devolution sets in.  Oil is the prime mover of our civilization.  Every oil field discovered follows a similar pattern of development, maturity and then decline.  The recent abundance mimics prior cyclical developments that brought Alaska and the North Sea on line.  Those fields like all the others before them have reached maturity and are now in decline.  The ongoing trend is for easy oil to be replaced by more difficult oil. As the cost of extraction increases the net energy obtained by the overall process declines.  The chart below lists the estimated costs of various sources of oil.  Not the significant cost increase that will  result as the center of production moves from the Middle East to oil shales.

 

Oilfields                   Estimated Production

 /source                        Costs ($ 2008)

 Mideast/N.Africa oilfields         6 -  28

 Other conventional oilfields       6 -  39

 CO2 enhanced oil recovery         30 -  80

 Deep/ultra-deep-water oilfields   32 -  65

 Enhanced oil recovery             32 -  82

 Arctic oilfields                  32 - 100

 Heavy oil/bitumen                 32 -  68

 Oil shales                        52 - 113

 Gas to liquids                    38 - 113

 Coal to liquids                   60 - 113

 

 Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2008

 

Said another way, we are in decline because the net energy required to fuel exponential growth is declining.  We have reached the end of growth.  The paradigm that has been in play for the last four thousand years has reversed.

 

The transition from exponential growth to exponential contraction is collapsing economies around the world.  The end result is a collapse of the social order.  

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 09:12 | 6539206 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Don't worry.

 

The TEA PARTY promises to defund the Fourth Turning, just like it defunded O'bombercare, the War on Drugs, Iraq, Afghanistan, and everything else they promised.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 09:37 | 6539240 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

Gawd, what a bunch of garble-de-goop.

This is why I hate movies like The Matrix--you can make up any bullshit you want, and you don't have to defend how you relate cause and effect.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 09:54 | 6539258 atthelake
atthelake's picture

delete

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 12:18 | 6539552 Sparehead
Sparehead's picture

An interesting read that was. I haven't read the book so let me ask a couple questions to those in the know. Why did they choose 1984 as the beginning of the current unraveling? If debt is the root of the crisis, wouldn't 1971 as the official start of the fully debt-based monetary system be the logical start? 

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 14:45 | 6539925 Clesthenes
Clesthenes's picture

“The regeneracy… [occurs] behind a strong leader to tear down the existing social, economic and cultural order and replace it with something different.”

Ah yes… more wishful thinking.  When will such nonsense end?

The verdict of history is certain on this topic: there is no such thing as a strong leader interested in advancing the cause of liberty.  A strong leader aims only at plunder, control and, ultimately, mass genocide of his victims.

It is also certain that those who aim it liberty are always bled of their resources by any chance slob with a hand out.

The only real liberty, or protection of rights, occurs when men are their own leaders; when they take measures to hold tyrants accountable for what they have done.

What the above quote actually calls for is an ordinary peasant revolt.  They rise up and slaughter a few of their tormentors; after their fury is exhausted, they readily put their yokes back on, perhaps a different-colored one.  Nothing changes.

For those who want something different, they must learn what criminal and useless classes do not allow in the educational, media organs they control: the power available to every man on the planet thru First-Amendment assemblies.

Sat, 09/12/2015 - 21:46 | 6540912 thebestlackallc...
thebestlackallconviction's picture

cuckoo! cuckoo! c'mon zh. nothing wrong with the forest from the trees. but if you step back too far? i'd say you fall of that high horse this guy is standing on. 

 

it's not even wrong. 

Sun, 09/13/2015 - 03:53 | 6541473 OzFan
OzFan's picture

Awesome article....quality.  Thoroughly enjoyed it.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 09:01 | 6545567 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

'

2024 is the D-Day.

 

Social security, medicare, medicaid, will be broke. (Years before.)

The debt will be approaching 30 trillion.

Autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, AI, robotics, and VR will be devastating the traditional economies.

Unemployment will be accelerating.

That is the election that will change the course, good or bad, for the next decades.

•?•
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