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100% Of US Economists Think China Is Lying About GDP Growth, WSJ Finds
Earlier today we got a look at fixed asset investment in China and the picture was most assuredly not pretty. Indeed, FAI growth was the weakest in 15 years, underscoring the degree to which China’s 7% headline GDP prints are at best a deficient deflator-assisted myth and at worst a figment of Xi’s imagination.
Of course the idea that China fabricates its GDP data isn’t new. In fact, it’s probably not even accurate to call it a “badly kept secret” anymore as it’s become so ubiquitous that calling it out isn’t even considered bad form and indeed some of the exaggeration baked into the numbers might not be the result of willful manipulation but rather simply the inevitable byproduct of using inadequate statistical methodologies to measure the deflator during times of plunging commodity prices.
In any event, the question is not if China’s GDP data is contrived but rather to what extent and on that point most people are understandably clueless because after all, China’s economy is somewhat of a black box and in the absence of reliable data, it’s sometimes easier to estimate what’s going on by looking at how things are going in the economies which depend on Chinese demand and indeed, that’s why quite a few people are so worried.
In an effort to get a read on just how likely it is that the numbers coming out of China’s NBS are fictitious, WSJ surveyed 64 US economists. Here’s what they found out:
China says its economy grew 7% in the second quarter. Economists in the U.S. don’t buy it.
More than 96% of respondents to the latest Wall Street Journal survey of 64 economists–not all of whom answered every question–said China’s gross-domestic-product estimates don’t accurately reflect the state of the world’s second-biggest economy.
“Official data are manufactured to fit the government’s narrative,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.
In the Journal’s survey, none of the respondents said China’s GDP was expanding 7% or more.
More than half estimated annual growth in 2015 at somewhere in the 5% to 7% range. About a third estimated growth would come in from 3% to 5%. Forecasts for growth next year covered a wide range, from as low as 2% to above 7%.
Needless to say, US economists do not have the best track record when it comes to making projections so ironically, the fact that 100% of them think China's economy is not growing at a 7% or better clip might be the only piece of evidence we've seen to date to suggest that Beijing is telling the truth and furthermore, after officially jumping the shark with double-adjusted data, the US is really in no position to call China out for fabricated numbers.
That said, China is in the same situation with its economic data that it's in with its equity market plunge protection effort. That is, even in a centrally planned world, Beijing's particular brand of fudging the numbers and stacking the deck falls outside the bounds of manipulated market decorum, and when you're the engine for global demand and trade, being completely opaque about what's going on introduces an extra layer of uncertainty into an already confused policy normalization attempt at the Eccles Building and if the last several weeks are any indication, markets may be in for a volatile ride next week if Chinese markets tip back into turmoil and Janet Yellen eschews a "hawkish hold" for a "policy error."
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Nobody can have an idea of GDP growth in such a complex system so why fuck around with absolutes at all.
That's why for the US I look at profit growth after taxes.
No one is going to overinflate their profits and then pay taxes on it just for the hell of it....
A Ponzi would.
Not would. Does.
Isn't it Unfunny:
eCONomist #1: "I know you are lying."
eCONomist #2: "How can you say that when we went to the same schools, use the same computer models and goal-seeked polling data, work for the same companies and think tanks..."
eCONomist #1: "That is exactly why I know you are lying."
Jeezus freeken , all they had to do was read zh for the last 4 yrs. and btfd
But why are they lying?
China holds the cards.
They are the manufacturers.
US is a deadbeat.
I was recently singing up for an online merchant account for my business. All of the categories of business were services. Not one category for making stuff! Tells you alot about the American economy.
China is trading with Russia in non-USD$.
China gets natural gas.
Russia gets rare earth metals.
They don't need the west.
Why do the oligarchs want a Chinese style government in the west?
Because they love tyranny.
if you owe the bnak a thousand dollars, you have a problem
if you owe the Chinese a trillion dollars, the Chinese have a problem
I have been saying for years on these boards that I don't believe the TIC reports.
If I was the PBOC I would have used those UST's as collateral at western banks and
used the loan proceeds for tangible assets,
Its a twofer for them, they can bring down the western banking system anytime they like,
and they still have those tangible assets.
The PBOC is a primary dealer to hide their true holdings, not to facilitate new purchases.
My 2 cents.
Wait, 2 years ago according to "economists" China is the growth engine for the world. Invest, invest, invest, invest.
Now they are lying sacks of shit. Bad people not to be trusted. Quite a transformation.
This is why I don't listen to any of these assholes anymore. Their advice halflife is 3 months. Assholes.
Stupid, West at war with China.
Last time I tell you boy before I have to hit you with a stick.
Evil China hackers...
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/09/13/429041/China-Obama-espionage-Wa...
Why are they lying?
Because that's what sociopaths do. The language and people makes zero difference to this equation.
Next?
Damn...they just thought to question the numbers? What's next? Are they going to question the US GDP numbers, too?
Kettle meet Pot.
Ma Kettle meet Pa.
Google Ma & Pa kettle do math.
... as 100% of the same "economists" lie about U.S. GDP growth...
That's their secret. They're always lying.
Fortunately, us 'Merkans can feel confident that our unemployment and inflation stats. are legit.
If you don't believe me just check out John Williams' Shadow Stats site. Land of the sheep,
home of the slave.
100% of the world thinks the US is lying about GDP growth.
And what about the economies that are already shrinking or at "zero" growth.
Germany?
And the US does not lie about their economy.
Depends on what part.
The unemployment part for sure.
This makes them appear legit, something a low-grade moron could figure out.
Of course it's 100%... They learned from us! Chinese are the best copy cats in the world.
Maybe , because of the "world order", things will stay the same for a few years!
How rich. I am torn between amusement and anger at this hipocricy.
99% of economists think the world is flat.
They aren't very bright.
So even with the deflated expectations, their growth is still expected to be stronger the the US. We must be doing something wrong or maybe our economy has never really recovered fully even if those talking aholes on CNBC say it has.
So we finally know Obama has been running the Chinese economy. Just another of his many lies.
last I checked, these "economists" were worthless - why does anyone care what they say?
These would be the same economists that never saw any of the last 10 recessions coming. Economists exist to make astrologers and weathermen look good.
100% sure they're lying about their gold holdings too...
That is the real issue, the rest of the blathering is an outcome of being an economist in a centrally planned country. Just like the US is.
Wonder what the same study said about Russia?
China continually being positioned as the scapegoat.
the fact is china is still growing.
the worst offender of goal seeking data is the usa by far, from fake employment and cpi data to manipulated equity markets.
My first thought when I saw this was
What percentage of US economists believe that the US government is lying about US GDP?
The take away sentence
So there's a certain respectability, etiquette and good form in the 21st century manipulation and ripping off of people.
And China doesn't make the cut.
What does Hamlet say?
Do you get it, writer dude? You can take your "manipulated market decorum," slather it with K-Y, and well you know what you can do with it.
China is declining when you think of US $.
They forget that China exchange goods with other countries without using US $.
Today, China's GDP should be measured in traded goods.
hehe.
Yeah but the funny thing is that those same economists believe the US's GDP numbers
Live off the cheap inventory buildup while it lasts, deadbeats.
Import prices are going up.
China runs the factories.
This is where WWIII comes in.
Google Chinese ghost cities and you'll see where billion of GDP went
China will never have a middle class.
Think about that.
REALLY?
How many think the US is lying about GDP growth?
Probably 100% as well, but most don't want to admit it.
Wow. Fucking geniuses. How do they do it??? FUCK OFF WSJ!!!
US economists are mainly interested in pouring water on countries that have better economic growth than the US. Of course the weak peformance of the US economy is partially due to the bad advice from those same US economists.
Liars think everyone else are liars like themselves.
China is going down for sure. Chances are, it will break up into 5 or more countries. However, many of these countries will do very well. A country like Guangzhou, including HK and Macao, will be one of the richest in the world.
So YES, China is on the way down but the wealth will not necessarily go to USA. The end of the CCP most likely means the end of hatred of China in Asia. This means more inter-Asian trade.
So in the end it will be USA and the West that suffers the most.