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US Futures Jump Unaware Gartman Short Has Been Stopped Out, China Hugs Flatline
Following a string of weak economic news out of both Japan and the US, it was China's turn to disappoint which it did over the weekend with the worst fixed-asset investment data - the primary driver of China's GDP - since 2000, as well as yet another miss in Chinese industrial output, just the latest two indications that China's economy is grinding to a halt if not slamming into reverse.
The result: just like with Japan's latest dramatic economic deterioration, China's data was merely taken as yet another indication the PBOC will be forced to ease more in the coming days. As Reuters reported, "the data add to expectations that Beijing will respond with more measures to prop up the economy. "The numbers fit with our view that China will have to roll out more monetary easing," said Fumio Nakakubo, Japan CIO at UBS's wealth management division."
Because if it hasn't worked so far, it is only because not enough has been applied right?
That, however, may not work for Japan where there has been a resurgence in calls for more easing out of the BOJ although as we first noted last year, and as the IMF confirmed last week, the BOJ no longer can boost QE simply because there is nothing incremental it can buy. It also explains why Reuters reported earlier that "Bank of Japan policymakers are in no mood to expand monetary stimulus this week, sources familiar with their thinking say, even as poor data challenges their presumption that economic recovery will boost inflation to its 2 percent target next year."
There is still hope for an October rate hike, but just like September, the closer we get to the date, the more unlikely such a hike will "suddenly" become as even the BOJ is now officially out of QQE boosting ammo, and the best it can hope for is to last until 2017 without prematurely tapering.
And while the Shanghai Composite opened green only to turn red moments ago as doubt starts to creep in that someone, anyone will ease more...
... we don't expect much of a move from China. As the following chart shows, ever since the Chinese government killed trading in Chinese index futures last week, the "market" is anything but - and has literally flatlined as virtually nobody trades anymore. In other words, China has successfully CYNKed its entire stock market.
Earlier, the PBOC modestly raised the Yuan, pushing it higher by 0.02% to 6.3709, up from 6.3750, although even that move seems rather unremarkable by recent standards - as if even China is now waiting for the Fed.
For now, US equity futures are higher on the day, rising by 9 point after being 14 points higher ealier, driven mostly by USDJPY correlation algos, and perhaps by Goldman's conviction that the Fed will not hike in September and may delay hiking until 2016 altogether.
However, we expect this initial euphoria higher to fade momentarily, once the vacuum tubes realize that the catalyst of Friday's surge higher, namely Gartman's latest flipflopping is no longer on the table. As a reminder, this is how we paraphrased Dennis in "A Warning For The Bears: Gartman Goes Short S&P Futures, "Very Worried In Catholic Terms"
NEW RECOMMENDATION: we wish to sell the S&P futures short this morning, fearing that a major top hss developed and that the recent consolidation in the stock market is precisely that: a consolidation before the next leg downward.
We’ll sell the S&P future short and will buy the December T-note at the same time, with the S&P trading 1933.00 as we write and with the Dec T-note future trading 127 ¼. We’ll risk no more than 1.5% on either position and we look for the consolidation in the S&P to resolve itself sharply lower as discussed at length above.
Well, as of tonight, just 1 trading day after his latest reco, Gartman has been stopped out as his 1.5% limit was hit when futures rose above 1962 this evening.
So with Gartman no longer a 100% assured fade, the algos are now flying blind and anything is possible.
That said, for the real action we will just have to wait until Thursday when the Fed either proceeds with the first rate hike in 9 years or, far more likely, postponed once again... due to "risk management" considerations of course.
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Gartman's the only mark left playing paper in this ponzi.......he stopped himself out
Gartman supposedly has 35 years market experience. To put 1.5% limits in this kind of market without any thought to positioning makes you wonder... Is he someone's tool to create liquidity at certain levels?
Otherwise, I honestly do not know why he is not in a coma.
Well, there will be some quants out on the street this week..
booted because they did not have the Gartman variable weighted properly when the rug is pulled out again.
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Hey Big, would you teach me,, given that i masturbate a lot?
Can you imagine being a gartman letter follower, how dizzy you must be? Imagine being gone for a week and coming back and reading last weeks emails? Running stops that close is begging the market to kick you right in your arse and to the curb.
Enjoy your week.
It wont last.
Watching futures the last 2 weeks real futures manipulations seem to be us/jpy as of late,but near or at European open theres usually some skullduggery that ramps them also,
Nothing lasts forever, in the cold November rain.
I wonder how "the market" would react if "Mr. Yellen" took the rate to (0.25) instead of 0.25.
http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/negative-interest-rates
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html
Happy Smetah Everyone!
As I have posted numerous times before, nothing is going to happen on the "shemitah" hoax date.
No man knows the day nor the hour.
Likely next spring, however.
2 Samuel 11:1; 1 Choniciles 20:1.
Gartman is like.... the PERFECT FADE!!!! Every. Single. Time.
I'm going to go out on a limb here. I think there will be a hike. The normalization will have to start somewhere and conditions are never going to be any better than they are right now. That is not to say that conditions are actually good now, only that they will continue to get worse from here (and everybody knows it) and that the longer the Fed waits, the worse it will be.
Janet Yellen realizes that by raising rates now, she has just made mincemeat out of all the theoretical justifications for accommodative monetary policy that have been advanced over the years. That is probably why we've seen so many public admissions of failure by former Fed officials (Greenspan, Paulson) in recent weeks. The narrative is falling apart, and frankly my gut tells me that everybody is anxious to get this shit show over with, come what may.
CNBC has been pulling Dick Bove out of the closet lately too. When he shows up looking like he finally took a shower you know things must be bad.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8344/8271817347_eb75d90ef8.jpg
The Chinese market is down 2-3% already. I hope they blow the floor out before the FED meeting. Fuck yo couch nigga!
Going big red in China bitchez!
World Bank chief economist warns Fed to delay rate rise
Financial Times
The U.S. Federal Reserve risks triggering "panic and turmoil" in emerging markets if it opts to raise rates at its September meeting and should hold fire until the global economy is on a surer footing, the World Bank's chief economist has warned.
Rising uncertainty over growth in China and its impact on the global economy meant a Fed decision to raise its policy rate next week, for the first time since 2006, would have negative consequences, Kaushik Basu told the Financial Times.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/08/world-bank-chief-economist-warns-fed-to-delay-rate-rise.html
They will NEVER raise rates, bitchez!
Where is the fucking Shemitah? Last day of trading Friday - Markets wipedout on Monday.....fuck this bs, now I'm going to have to sell my five gallon buckets of pancake mix to cover my mortgage paymet.
Next thing ya know my Alex Jones signature coloidal silver drops won't protect me from Fukushima radiation poisoning OR improve my sex life..
"And now, right here on our stage...", "For all you youngsters out there...", "a really big shew"
--- Ed Sullivan
You'll have to wait until 4PM EST to find out.
Tuesday is 55 days since the market crash (Fibonacci and pattern of 1929.)
I'm waiting entire week before I judge on Shemitah.
Any Shemitah action yet?
China getting hammered down 3.2% at break expected to go lower. 13 losers to every gainer.
I think illegal aliens deserve a 100k margin account along with their free health care , and drivers license!
Murrica!
Don't forget the McMansions
ZH is gonna run gartman outta bidness
Gartman should be made to lick his own hairy taint every time his calls go wrong. He would fold his newletter the first week.
Don't understand why Gartman matters.... Must be a moniker like Trump.
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Most in the markets, like about 70%, won't have a clue 'Shemitah' exists am I right?
Or would that be more like 30%?
Wondering if it 'is' a 'thing'. What it is? And how consciousness would effect it?
China's problem: Our traders just aren't greedy losers like America's... and it is killing our markets!
Does he trade his own money ? Seems like he has a drip fund of other peoples cash and which is sustaining a shit poor ' trading ' philosophy.
If he had purely his own cash, at war, he'd likely refine his battle method or be done already. It's like watching a general , sending waves of men over the top, into a hail of bullets. He might win, the odd battle, but the outcome of his war is already known.
If Gartman was an army, he'd be the Argentines with giddy ambitions of winning the Malvinas.