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China Churn & Fed Fears Spark Sleepy Stock Slippage
It's just a harmless little 25bps rate hike...
The market's implied probablity of a September rate hike was flat at 28% today...
But today's weakness started in China when - just as the greater fools thought it was safe to relever into stablity - Chinese stocks tumbled most in a month...
Which weighed heavily on an exuberant 'panic-buying' US futures market overnight... from the start of Friday's meltup close...
Cash markets tried an initial squeeze but failed and drifted lower into the European close...
Once again, stocks tracked oil.. .until NYMEX closed...
The Nasdaq remains the only index in the green since the end of QE3...
BABA sums it all up nicely... "trust" the analysts...
VIX and Stocks remain decoupled - which appears like traders lifting front-end hedges (and th eunderlying exposures) or just rolling hedges (as the curve remains notably inverted)...
Treasury yields could not decided what to do today and traded in a very narrow range... 2Y closed higher by 2bps, rest of the curve closed lower in yield...
The US Dollar closed practically unchanged but followed the sell Asia, buy Europe pattern once again...
Gold was very quiet today but copper, crude, and silver all slipped together from overnight pre-China highs...
But the crude contango is back in force as Brent's 13th vs 1st spread is now at $9.23 - its highest since February and re-igniting the "storage arb" trade (with a 20% premium over front-month)
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: The only chart that matters for The Fed's "Dow-Data-Dependence"...
Implied probability of September move vs. S&P pic.twitter.com/TL8nuxhgIL
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) September 11, 2015
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China yelling fire in an empty market.
No penalty for China, except a few explosions.
And when China yells "fire!", they want those papers in those folders now!
Some Shemitah... Pussies
You have not done your homework before opening your mouth; I'll leave it at that. I am not a "mystic", but I have done the homework.
Interesting tidbit : None of the Fed governors has ever voted to raise ... or lower ... rates.
http://fortune.com/2015/09/14/feds-current-rate-changers-have-never-ever-changed-rates/
Feels like S&P wants to make one last run for 2025 range. 3rd day VIX closed below 20 day. Hard spot here, shorts don't want to risk 4% but also don't want to miss downside if this is it.
if it looks like a pennant, then it is probably a pennant. the range is tightening, almost reaching the end of the pennant.....which SHOULD take stocks MUCH lower.
market wedgie...
Bear flag
Some more bad news for Macau's high rollers — or what is left of them.
On Thursday, the Hong Kong-based investment bank Daiwa Capital Markets published a report saying that as much as $258 million had been stolen from a junket operating inside Wynn Macau.
In Macau, junkets operate as third parties within casinos, bringing in cash that high rollers — the VIPs who bet big at the casino — use to leverage their bets.
It is suspected that employees of Dore Holdings, the junket working inside the casino, made off with the cash.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/macau-getting-rocked-reports-258-154338929...
The PPT's target for the S&P is 1940 (+ or - 10 pts); so they will try to maintain. The VXX/VIX vassal is being used to squeeze and squeeze on the upside and the downside, a product of the NY FED.
The "feeling like" the 2025 range can only come from the PPT; the market has been very persistent at trying to "plunge", which is why the PPT has been out early and often and at the fore-front.
The FED cannot raise rates without severe unwinding the distortions they have helped create (Congress has a hand as well, but both have the same master - SATAN).
They are Desperately trying to Hold things Together... NO RATE INCREASE BITCHES!!!!!!
“The Gartman Letter” from “The Letter” by The Box Tops
Gimme some puts on the Dow again
Ain’t no time to take the FAS train
Bullish days are gone, I’m a-goin short
Gartman just-a wrote me a letter
I don't care how much margin I gotta spend
Got to get back to net short again
Long days are gone, I'm a-gonna short
Denny just-a wrote me a letter
Well, he wrote a letter
Said he couldn't stand to be short no more
Listen mister, can't you see that means
stocks will find a new floor?
Bombs away
Gimme 1000 ticks on the Dow again
Perfect time to jump the FAZ train
Bullish days are gone, Gartman lost his short
Denny’s gonna write a new letter
My baby fades ‘The Gartman Letter’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
Are we to expect a "Shemita Stretch" for a few weeks?
Maybe some bankers overslept today and they couldn't make a quorum.?
When Petroleo Brasileiro SA sold 100-year bonds in June, the move was largely seen as a sign the corruption-tainted oil producer had put the worst of its problems behind it.
For investors like Pacific Investment Management Co., Fidelity Management & Research Co. and Capital Group Inc. -- the three biggest holders of the securities -- that turned out to be a costly miscalculation. Since the $2.5 billion offering, the bonds have tumbled 15 percent. That’s four times the average loss for emerging-market company debt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/pimco-fidelity-stung-b...
That's why those guys make the Big Money; they know where to invest...gafaw...gafwa...gafaw.....