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It All Comes Down To This
Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,
After months of speculation, debating and postulating, the Federal Reserve will hold their two-day Federal Open Market Committee confab to make their decision on raising the overnight "Fed funds" rate.
Morgan Stanley postulates four potential outcomes. To wit:
- A Hawkish Pass (60% Probability): The Fed passes on liftoff in September, citing the recent tightening in financial conditions, while keeping the door open for liftoff at the October or December meetings.
- A Dovish Pass (30% Probability): The Fed passes on liftoff in September, citing both the recent tightening in financial conditions as well as a lack of confidence that inflation will move back to 2 percent over time.
- A Dovish Hike (9% Probability): The Fed hikes rates at the September meeting, but strengthens expectations for a gradual path thereafter by significantly lowering the 2016 and 2017 dots, introducing 2018 dots that are below the longer-run dots, and further lowering the longer-run dots.
- A Hawkish Hike (1% Probability): In this scenario, the Fed would hike at the September meeting while not decreasing the expected pace of hikes in 2016 and 2017 very much.
This outlook very much corresponds with my own recent analysis where I have suggested the data simply doesn't support hiking rates now.
"The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow economic growth to keep an economy from overheating which would potentially lead to a sharp rise in inflationary pressures. Since commodities are the basis of everything that is bought, consumed or other utilized; if there were indeed inflationary pressures on the rise commodity prices should be on the rise. As shown, this is clearly not the case."
"In fact, declines in commodity prices have historically been associated with declines in economic activity as shown in the highlighted boxes. While not every decline in commodity prices led to a recession, and I am not making that case, there is a high correlation between the ebb and flow of commodity prices and economic activity, as would be expected"
Yet, despite mounting evidence that the economy and global financial markets too weak to offset a further tightening of monetary policy, there are many economists, including those working at the Federal Reserve, that are expecting rates to rise. To quote Richard Fisher:
"Monetary policy, too, operates with a lag. If the Fed waits for full employment and then has to throttle back sharply, there will be a nasty shock. The upcoming Fed meetings present a timely opportunity to start slowing down the engines, however slightly, so as to maintain the confidence of markets, businesses, and consumers alike."
Fisher believes that inflation is running a bit hotter than more commonly watched measures suggest. He also believes the current deflationary build is solely due to the decline in oil and commodity prices which he believes to be transient and inflation will begin to track more closely to target levels by year end.
This outlook was echoed by Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer at the recent Jackson Hole Economic Summit:
"Given the apparent stability of inflation expectations, there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further. While some effects of the rise in the dollar may be spread over time, some of the effects on inflation are likely already starting to fade. The same is true for last year's sharp fall in oil prices, though the further declines we have seen this summer have yet to fully show through to the consumer level. And slack in the labor market has continued to diminish, so the downward pressure on inflation from that channel should be diminishing as well.
With inflation low, we can probably remove accommodation at a gradual pace. Yet, because monetary policy influences real activity with a substantial lag, we should not wait until inflation is back to 2% to begin tightening."
While Fischer/Fisher are correct that inflation is low, there is NO SIGN that inflationary pressures will substantially rise, and stabilize, at 2% in the future. As shown the deflationary problem has existed since 1980 and continues today. While the fall in oil prices, and surging US Dollar, are certainly putting downward pressure on inflationary readings, that doesn't really explain the long-term deflationary trend.
(Note: The current debt/GDP ratio is inaccurate due to the debt being capped at the current debt ceiling limit. The debt ceiling will rise in September which will send this ratio substantially higher.)
So, while the Fed keeps suggesting the economic growth and inflationary pressures are "just around the corner;" such hopes have remained elusive over the last few years.
If we look at both GDP growth and Fed Funds data, which dates back to 1943, and calculate both the average and median for the entire span, we find:
- The average number of quarters from the first rate hike to the next recession is 11, or 33 months.
- The average 5-year real economic growth rate was 3.08%
- The median number of quarters from the first rate hike to the next recession is 10, or 30 months.
- The median 5-year real economic growth rate was 3.10%
However, note the BLUE arrows. There have only been TWO previous points in history where real economic growth was below 2% at the time of the first quarterly rate hike - 1948 and 1980. In 1948, the recession occurred ONE-quarter later and THREE-quarters following the first hike in 1980.
In other words, the Federal Reserve is considering tightening monetary policy at a time when average real economic growth is less than half the level of previous rate hiking campaigns.
Think about it this way. If it has historically taken 11 quarters to fall from an economic growth rate of 3% into recession, then it will take just 1/3rd of that time at a rate of 1.2%, or 3-4 quarters. This is historically consistent with previous economic cycles, as shown in the table to the left, which suggests there is much less wiggle room between the first rate hike and the next recession than currently believed.
It is there that we find the Fed's dilemma:
"There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape, and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term is likely telling us just that. The big question for the Fed is how to get out of the potential trap they have gotten themselves into without cratering the economy, and the financial markets, in the process.
...the Fed understands that we are closer to the next economic recession than not. For the Federal Reserve, the worst case scenario is being caught with rates at the "zero bound" when that occurs. For this reason, while raising rates will likely spark a potential recession and market correction, from the Fed’s perspective this might be the 'lesser of two evils.'”
The real risk for the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates at zero and the deflationary feedback from the collapse in commodity prices, and the Chinese economy trips the U.S. into a recession. Given that "QE" programs have no real effect on boosting economic growth, the Fed would be left with virtually no "effective" monetary policy tools with which to stabilize the economy. For the Fed, this is the worse possible outcome.
Therefore, while the data clearly suggests the Fed should remain on hold in September, they are clearly keeping the "door open" to lifting interest rates anyway. With the financial markets beginning to lose stability, my expectation is that things are likely not to end as well as most mainstream analysts currently expect. Therefore, if the Fed is at all uncertain as to whether they should lift rates in September, the data clearly gives them an excuse not to.
For investors, it all comes down to this.
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If a tree falls in an empty market, does it make a noise?
No, because there is no one to here it.
Are you that hard up for the few retail pennies left on the floor?
Investor? What's that?
Market? What's that?
I believe one is to read Speculator in place of the word investor.
Also, they neglected to mention the possibility of a Black Swan rate cut into NIRP. Might be 1/2 of 1% or much less for probabiltiy, but it still exists as a probability.
Just like no one really saw the Swiss National Bank pull what it did earlier this year until it did.
Bernocchio said a few years back that "the Fed stands ready to employ all its tools at its disposal to stop any crisis".
I guess zero interest rates, 1% growth, and labor force participation at 30 year lows isn't "critical".
The Fed has no more bullets. In actuality, they never had any to begin with because debauching a currency through serial asset bubble blowing is NOT an effective policy and certainly isn't growth. Someone at the Fed should learn this reality.
"The real risk for the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates at zero ...trips the U.S. into a recession"
which is it?
are we already in Recession, in a Greater Depression™ or forever impervious to them cuz FED?
" ... This outlook very much corresponds with my own recent analysis where I have suggested the data simply doesn't support hiking rates now."
Well ... that sentence is correct if your a "liquidity" challenged insolvent bankster.
As a debtless investor ... go ahead. Make my day.
Can you just imagine how scary those charts would be if Ronald Regan had not been elected in 1981?
you think the office of the president has any influence on what the fed does? it's always been the opposite.
um.... Paul Volcker was appointed by Jimmy Carter.
So a second Carter administration would have had the same result....Presumably
"suggested the data simply doesn't support hiking rates now"
And it never will. Debt borrows growth from future and keeping rates low just allows more borrowed growth.
I think Fed wants to end the ZIRP experiment and try to manage the fallout. Which will be fun to watch.
Whatever they do, it won't stop markets from crashing or the global economy from tanking.
You are making the assumption that they dont want to prick the bubble...... I really dont see this as a market moving event. The bots will catch the fall. The real movers will be Tbills, the Dollar and PMs, whatever the decision. If they raise, l have no problem see gold sub $1000. If they dont, I think $1200 gold will happen soon.
central banking = central planning = FAIL
only the timing is indeterminate
My guess is that the Fed really does not care about monetary policy as long as they have a monopoly on money creation and can give money to anything or anyone they want and keep money away from anyone or anything they want.
In this way they control people and not the economy. People working in the Fed's owners' best interest get as much money as they want. People not working for the benefit of the Fed's owners get bubkiss.
It's too late, the Fed can never raise rates or stop QE. If they raise rates the economy and markets depend on it and can no longer survive without it. You have front row seats to the biggest crash in the history of the NYSE.
Enjoy the show!
You are only wrong on two of your two points. The economy hasn't changed with zero rates and won't changed with a miniscule .25% raise. As for the markets, There aren't any real markets, QE was a failure and always will fail. Stocks have risen before with much higher interest rates and still can. The market is fueled by greed and expectations, nothing more.
They have effectively destroyed the TVM that fiat currencies where created for in the first place. Even with such low rates and easy money we haven't seen inflation, except in stocks as record amounts of funds flowed into mutual funds and ETFs seeking profitably and returns higher than the rate of inflation over the last 7 years. Think S&P is not over valued because P/E ratios aren't at record levels, remember companies have been using record low rates to buy back their stocks and thus make their P/Es look much better. Moving on, once currencies begin to fail and crashes like China repeat in the rest of BRICs, Europe and the U.S. you'll see us move into the next phase which I think we are approaching rapidly. This period will help bolster USTs for a short time and continue to put pressure on commodities. Next even more QE and negative rates will be employed but it won't help. The next phase you will see is inflation then hyper inflation then default and resets of new currencies and new debt. It is baked in, no way out.
You say end of the world disaster, many of us say, "Finally." Enough of this fucking clown show for the ill gotten rich.
Who in their right mind would play this game anymore with their money or someone elses. What a casino! Looking at the probabilities and the way they are presented I realize how totally dependent we are on the every breath of Psychopaths. I would be willing to bet that Janet Yellen does not know what she will anounce even today. No one knows. I should get one of theose black eightballs and use that to forecast and be more accurate. This system is going down. There is only one way this can go. No matter what they do long term growth and recovery will not happen.
I will never understand how a cause of economic loss came to be interpreted as a symptom of gain. So, all of this is just gibberish.
can some one please tell me of a period in history where deflation spiral out of control? The solutions appear to be worse than the problem
Graphs, charts, jawboning, whatever else, the un-fed is not going to raise rates.
Jack Yellen has his marching orders, everything else is white noise to him.
wrong place
fuck, still ansering tp WCB or whatever. But the link is valid.
Try this, dumbass
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
Rates go up 25 basis points on Thursday and the Fed will say they will "cautiously evaluate the data before making further decisions".
I agree. If the Fed does the 25 bps hike now, it gives them another bullet in the chamber. When the market tanks they can say that the rate hike caused the decline and they can reverse the market correction by lowering rates back to zero. Obviously the bullet is a blank but I think it could buy the fed some more can kicking time.
Or maybe the fed is just scared shitless right now and decides to hold off on the rate hike but if they do that I think then its zero forever. It is definitely now or never time for them.
but
won't that be the central bank equivalent of
At this point, judging from what I experienced in the Carter years, we should have interest rates around 40% for mortgages and banks should be paying 20% or more on reserves, plus balance sheet fees based on non depreciatable assets.
.Want to see fire and brimstone? This is the way to do it.
for what its worth, i'm opposite this fella
60% mini hike
30% q4
9% pass
1% on a long enuf timeline....
I was attempting to illustrate to a friend today just how absurdly fragile the system is for the threat of a .25% rise in interest rates to cause such fear. I asked her to imagine that she had a 30yr, $250k mortgage at 4%, and that her budget was fairly tight. The payments would be $1,193/month, and, at 4.25%, $1,229 and change.
$36/month, seen through that lens, is what we're talking about. Obviously, if one could truly afford a $1200/month mortgage, that bump would be virtually unnoticeable.
The current, wildly precarious state of the world's economic system should be equally obvious.
What's the chances Yellen leaves rates as is and also mentions the possibility of QE in the future?
When all the data is manipulated via HFT, BLS, and the FED...what use is any speculation on what the FED will or will not be done, or on what the market will do. Every indicator is meaningless.
The Fed is out of policy tools?
Money from helicopters.
Money from helicopters
Exactly, Yellen would get his inflation then. Of course this would be the evidence that was needed to show that the emperor was without clothes. But hey, I'm betting the masses are so fucking stupid, it would actually work for a spell... until it didn't any more.
You would experience an exponential explosion of absolutely idiotic, mind blowing statements from the Free Shit Army. A laugh a minute from the dentally challenged, aptly coiffured inner city yoots and their parents.
It might almost be worth it, to hear them tell how ther "deserve" this money from the government.
Financial manipulation and control are the only tools left for the fed, without them they would have no reason to still exist and sleep at night. War is the only option since extintion is not so favorable in their eyes.
"the Fed would be left with virtually no "effective" monetary policy tools with which to stabilize the economy." The only effective action is to leave the economy the hell alone, it will stabilize just fine. But at this point it's already too late, deflation is a given. However, since their little ponzi scheme is 100% dependent on faith, the best course of action would be to raise the rates now before more people catch on.
As for inflation, we won't have real wage push inflation for a very long time. Because first of all, we aren't engaged in much real production anyways. And second of all, if wage pressure does increase, the corporations will simply outsource production overseas.
As for inflation, we won't have real wage push inflation for a very long time.
While this is true, make no mistake, if Yellen were do do as his predisessor threatened; drop money from helicopters, getting the currency directly to the pleebs, you WOULD get inflation. There is a long list of why you have low inflation in many areas and even deflation in others, but give the currency to those that will spend it, and spend it in mass, and you WILL have your inflation.
I notice a rather peculiar stance coming from many heretofore, 'hard money' analysts, who, now facing a real threat by the Fed, are not only backing off, but are actively promoting that which they once skewered as 'bad policy'... I guess when it comes down to those annual client $$$Fees from being 'all-in', the shit gets real, don't it...?
This economy is so fucking distorted, the Chinese are trying to save it by devaluing their currency.
But that wont work because US markets are run by maniacs high on cocaine.
Opium War revenge is sweet.
Too bad the bond market is about to crash.
Only the meek will perish.
The Fed will gradually raise rates for the next couple years. If not, there are some pretty inexpensive strips out there.
Big, ugly Chinese foot on the US throat right now.
Things only get better if you own silver and gold.
The Fed has been rolling the dice since TARP, then TWIST, and then 3 rounds of QE money printing. Wow...the Banks must have been really fucked up if all three of those immoral and Constitutionally illegal policies have failed to life the US (amd global) economy.
Oh well, the Fed failed to lift the US economty, but the Banks' management has been able to continue multi million $$ comp packages for 7 years now...so they should be ok if the economy should fail now.
The 7 year dice has come up snake eyes for the economy but the Banks who were skimming every roll, every minute for those 7 years. Success !
All the hedge fund guys are promoting the " Hike and Roll" policy by the Fed. Hike rates off of zero to get some price movement but also roll over the QE 3 to QE 4, y'know for liquidity purposes. No haem no foul.
Hello Ray Dalio? Still want hard money or do you prefer the "Hike and Roll" ?
One thing is certain, the FED chair has no balls.
So what?
Neither does the president.
One sure way to get commodity prices to rise is to stop the free money spigot that funds marginal projects and subsidizes commodity producers.
We are clearly closer to the end of this commodity retracement than we are to the beginning.
The problem as I see is that IF they raise tiny weenie, they have set a precedent. By raising rates they are saying that this IS the direction we should be going.....and they are right or maybe better said, would have been right if they raised rates years ago and in a painful way to right the ship. If they don't they are admitting things are not as rosy as they would have us believe through their MSM tools. They are like a bunch of clueless little punks. They are going to raise as an experiment to see if they can. PPT will be on standby with many fat fingers when the announcement comes. Jimmy crack corn....................
We all know how this is going to play out.
If the Fed stays put, the market will go up 700 points the next day.
If the Fed raises rates the market will go up 700 points three days later.
Like everything the Fed touches, it'll be a win-win for the banks.
either way,come Friday...Popcorn will abound..it's gonna be interesting,for sure
They have effectively destroyed the TVM that fiat currencies where created for in the first place. Even with such low rates and easy money we haven't seen inflation, except in stocks as record amounts of funds flowed into mutual funds and ETFs seeking profitably and returns higher than the rate of inflation over the last 7 years. Think S&P is not over valued because P/E ratios aren't at record levels, remember companies have been using record low rates to buy back their stocks and thus make their P/Es look much better. Moving on, we will continue to see crashes like China repeat in the rest of BRICs, Europe and the U.S. This period will help bolster USTs for a short time and continue to put pressure on commodities as it will all be blamed on China and global slow down, not the central banks. Next even more QE and negative rates will be employed to rescue the markets again but it won't help because smart money will have moved into hard assets to wait it out. Small money will be flocking to gold and silver but too late for many of them because they BTFD for too long and helped the smart money exit. The next phase you will see is inflation then hyper inflation then default and resets of new currencies and new debt. It is baked in, no way out.
It all comes down to this:
LMFAO
So your argument boils down to:
"Look, the whole world (as long as it's medieval, scared of witches, uneducated and European) hates Jews...all manner of cool trendsetters like Henry "Fuck me" Ford, the inventor cars on credit for the wageslaves did it ..so let's hate Jews too, people!"
"We don't have solutions. We don't think. Don't have any plans, because it's all the Jews' doing, people. The naughty, cheeky bastards!!"
So Mr Jew expert. What do The Jews want? Rate hike to finally take down our Christian Economy? Or more QE, because Jesus didn't kick the money lenders out of the temple...he merely invited then to his place so they could smoke weed and generally kick the shit? Or are they still too busy being sour at those damn Saxons for banning them?
I'm just searching the www for "what do Jews want" and "history of jewish evils" and pasting results here and being as non-selective as I can in my choosing. Some results laughable, some very troubling for the non-Jew. As for me - "Mr. Jew expert", I'm still a neophyte on a steep learning curve as this world seems to be devolving rapidly. I will gladly update as I learn. And I will not stop seeking until proven wrong. Please set me straight.
I up arrowed you for asking.
http://www.realjewnews.com/?p=786
http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/39606/jewish/Why-Do-Jews-E...
https://www.stormfront.org/jewish/antisemite.html
https://mynameisjoecortina.wordpress.com/2008/06/03/are-all-jews-rotton-...
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/03/08/the-hidden-history-of-the-incred...
http://www.wernercohn.com/Shahak.html
Please list all the good that Jews are doing for us goyim in finance, entertainment, government, international peace, education, media and business.
Thanks.
This is getting rather boring. All this speculation of over a puny 0.25 rate hike. Thats all were looking at if anything. Its not worth working up a sweat over.
You would thinks so until you see the Chinese, the ECB, and the IMF chiming in on how important it is that the Fed not raise rates. All banks everywhere now need free money to survive. What could go wrong?
Raising or lowering rates is a lagging indicator to control credit creation (and attendant debt instruments). In other words, economy is raising, and FED raises rates. Economy declines, and FED lowers rates.
What FED cannot seem to figure out is that private debtors vector their wallet money to pay debts and are not going crazy taking out new loans. They don't feel good about the future, so they are not going to hypothecate themselves. You cannot push on a string.
-----------------------
There are ways...the FED is not out of bullets - they lack imagination, or maybe they are corrupt?
Not that I’m a fan of private banks and their con- games. But, if one is going to play the “credit” game, there are things they could do. There are things they could do that would be beneficial, but they don’t – because it is not in their interest.
QE could direct into something other than banker reserve accounts. When QE directs into reserves it is a liquidity swap, as if one is moving money from their savings account to their checking account. In other words, the bank becomes more liquid as it has more money and fewer debt instruments.
In a debt depression is the banker in debt? No, it is private borrowers. Are private borrowers going to hypothecate themselves to take out yet more debts, to then stimulate the economy? Not really…some will take out college loans, and others may take out subprime car loans. Most will pay down debts.
Paying down private debts makes former bank credit disappear. The economy limps along as debts are paid down and credit as money disappears. Meanwhile banker is newly capitalized and “hopes” for new debtors t show up. Or, banker plays games in derivatives and carry trades, rather than making loans.
QE could direct spend…NOT INTO BANKs. FED could purchase deliberately created new debt instruments. The rules would have to be changed to allow banks to buy and hold new types of debts on their books. These new types of debts would put money into the real economy.
FED and banker’s now hold crap MBS, which are synthetic interest bearing paper now. Why not something that benefits producers and labor, rather than FIRE industry?
New types of debt paper would be municipal bonds, or maybe a new type of bank is created to allow issuance of new types of debt paper.
The new type of paper would be highly directed, meaning that it channels into the spot it was intended to go.
In Nazi Germany, Schacht created MEFO Bills. At first they were issued to 5 big industrial concerns. They acted as credit for the concerns to start making goods (military goods mostly as Germany felt threatened).
Once the goods were made, the bill would be presented by industry for a discount. In this way, goods production exactly matched new money in circulation. The bill was always examined to make sure there were goods produced. Reichsbank would make mefobill good for discount. In this way reichmarks would enter into money supply, and the former “credit” value of MEFOBILL would disappear. (Upon discounting Reichsbank came to hold bill.) Former holder (the industrial concerns) would now have reichsmarks and some interest. Both new reichsmarks and interest would then flow into the economy as industry paid wages and bought goods, so it was non- usurious. New money and production went up simultaneously, and new production channels were tightly targeted.
Money is general pay to the bearer upon demand, but it can be forced into channels, and its volume can be controlled to match goods and services.
For example, just giving people money may end up not being productive, as they buy more Chinese crap.
It would be better to use mefo-like bills, or new debts to stimulate/create new internal industry, to then recover those jobs off-shored.
The Central Bank of the Global Regime of Interlinking Economic Corporations and Organizations aren't going to tell anyone what they are really doing.
What are you fucking STUPID!
The FED has no effective tools .... PERIOD.
QE didn't work (except for Wall Street).
Low interest rates didn't work. If they worked, the real economy would be booming, after an extended period of extraordinarily low rates.
The Emperor has no clothes. Accept it.
If the data doesn't support a rate hike now, it's not going to. I think the nomenclatura is waking up to that. Rates need to normalize before markets can.
Companies with lots of short term debt will feel the linch the most if rates rise. Luckily, GS put together a list of some of those:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/goldman-here-are-the-s...
read the entire article. It's instructive.
The Fed's only mandate is to keep the host alive long enough to suck the last drop of interest payments out of it's amaciated corpse. When the USA is dead, it will simply swim off and look for a bigger global host.
When's the last time you've ever heard of a leach actually "making" blood and giving it back to it's victim?
As Peter Schiff nand Richard Duncan say.
The Fed is stuck at keeping rates at 0% and QE until a currency crisis.
I think the fed would look foolish to raise rate now, and a recession occurs, then they have to re-lower rates again. That would signal a admission that the economy is not recovering, but rather a economy that is sedated awash in debt versus acts of geniune economic activity of purging bad investments and debts. Recessions purge bad debts and investments, and exposes real profitability. While cheap debt fuels a zombie economy, because cheap debt is keeping alive activities that are barely profitable, or only profitable in a situation of low cost debt. What you get is growth in debt versus growth in actual capital growth that finds profit route.
Debt is no replacement for genuine wealth generation just as money printing is.
I agree with Jim Grant that visible losses guide the markets to find real redirection, while monetary pumping simply sustains activity, barely keeping it alive. Fed ran out of ammo. Consumers hit peak debt, corporations peak debt basically, and nothing really to show for it. In real capitalism, failure and loss is very much part of ecosystem of a economy guided by prices.
I honestly have to laugh about the Fed, and all the bantor of whether they really raise rates or not when the eocnomy is not that good, or how much they will raise it, because the Fed is telegraphing a rate hike, yet clearly the economy is not healthy. If they thought it was healthy, they wouldn't need to rely couple of weeks of data, or month to pull the trigger on rate hike. They are unsure of themselves and is laughably obvious.
Debt is no replacement for genuine wealth generation just as money printing is.
------------
You have to generate wealth simulataneously with printing. See my previous post.
Or, if you have idle machines, manpower, and materials present - then adding money is not inflationary. It becomes demand, or fuel so to speak, to then allow transactions to go forth.
During the great depression food rotted on the ground because there was no money, and hence no way to pay wages for harvest.
Some of the previous comments I noticed are farily moronic, like the FED is out of bullets. Bullshit. During great depression they actually monetized municipal bonds, they could do it again.
Mostly the problem is with government and politicians...they have been captured by money powers, and hence are afraid of their own shadow. Also, many politicians are dumber than stumps.
''Since the medium of exchange in a debt backed by debt system is debt, the only way to service a debt is with debt and the only way that can be sustained is if debt inflates by the required amount''
hypertiger
http://hypertiger.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html
Nostradumbass,
A more fruitful endeavour might be to point to those societies that actually integrated their jews, and what the lessons were.
For example, Justinian Code in Byzantine Empire would be a good line of research. Jews were kept out of sensitive positions like handling money, teaching, or government positions.
Byzantium was the child of Rome, so law produced there was by way of a 1000 years of Rome learning.
Prussia managed their Jews OK, as they had a very rigid society and thus limited bad behavior. Of course that didn't stop Red Berlin and the attempt to take over Germany by Bolsheveiks.
sovereignmoney would go a long way toward integrating Jews into society, as it would strip away usury/monetary rents, the main avenue of wealth (stealing via prices).
sovereignmoney.eu
Today, a good example would be Iran. The Jews of Iran have not tried to take over. The legal codes there, Jizya tax, etc. would be an interesting avenue of research.
The real problem of course is rents taken on money, and this "fuel" is veritable gusher due to the way it pyramids.
Many laboring sheeple Jews are ignorant of how things work, or worked in the past, so they take great umbrage at any sort of criticism. They have to be handled more carefully than their true predators.