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To JPM, Both A Rate Hike And A Delay Would Be Bullish For Stocks
Worried how stocks will react to the Fed's announcement this Thursday? Well don't, because no matter what the Fed announces, the outcome will be favorable. At least that is JPM's pitch.
The reason: according to equity strategist Mislav Matejka, either announcement should "be received well" by the market. To wit:
The eagerly awaited Fed meeting is upon us. Regardless of the actual decision, we suggest that the market impact could end up being positive. If the Fed does raise rates, but at the same time reassures the market that this will be a gradual process, it would be received well. If, on the other hand, the Fed delays the move, this could be interpreted as a signal that the Fed is aware of and is responding to recent market concerns. A delay could dampen the link between the DXY and commodity prices.
To be sure, JPM realizes that a rate delay is confirmation that not all is well with the economy, and that another big chunk of Fed credibility will be lost, but who cares: at the end of the day, it is all about stocks or as Goldman calls it "risk management."
Even though inaction might be seen as prolonging market anxiety, the key in our view is that investors get to know what the new Fed’s reaction function is. One of the main current investor concerns is over the lack of clarity from central banks. We believe that the policymakers are still on the side of the risky assets and will act supportively; the ECB opening the doors to QE2 is a case in point.
This takes us back to what Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said ten days ago happens if the Fed does not hike. Among his key observations, the bolded one is key:
- It’s an admission that Wall Street threatens to reverse the recovery on Main Street
- It will lead to a short-term relief rally on Wall Street
- It will be relatively positive for EM/commodities/resources, as it unwinds the higher US growth/rates/dollar narrative
- It will be positive for higher-yielding assets
- It will be positive for growth > value, as the Fed is confirming the deflationary recovery
As we said, the bolded one is the only relevant one - it means that not only is the Fed entirely on the side of the market versus the economy despite its pompous rhetoric and endless bluster, not to mention Yellen's repeated "overvaluation" comments, but that Goldman - which has been at the forefront of calling for a delay in the rate hike for months - is the true president of the Fed.
Finally, those wondering if this is the same Matejka who last week gave 4 reasons not to go long US stocks and that "upside is limited at this stage of cycle, but too early to position for recession" the answer is yes, yes it is. So?
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Yeah right.
That's the fact.....Jack!
It's all Bullshit!!!
September Fools!
I love when the arguments are all based on sentiment. Sentiment means shit when you're in a liquidity trap. Anything tighter than zero is too tight.
My argument has always been that they will tighten just to prove they can. It's only a question of timing (which I gave up on long ago). How soon do they tighten and then how soon until they're forced to back it down to zero (or below) again.
It's very similar how gold bugs tend to think a rate HIKE will be bullish for gold: http://kingworldnews.com/bill-fleckenstein-broadcast-interview-available...
If all you got is a hammer then 2+2=5, right?
Similar????? What Douchebaggery...
So Gold Bugs think a rate hike or a DELAY will be bullish?
Why post such stupid statements unless you like looking stupid?
Listen to the KWN interview with Fleckenstein, dickhead!
Lot's of goldbugs out there touting that "a rate RISE will ALSO be bullish for gold."
Hahaha, yeah right!
Anyway, I warned you folks, don't be crying and complaining next week about "central bank conspiracies" and "gold price manipulation" if the FED hikes the rate and precious metal prices tank!
I'm keeping my powder dry for a while because:
1) if rate stays the same => no action in gold price or even a slow trickle to lower and lower prices (basically what we've seen over the last years), or
2) if rate is only slightly hiked => an excuse to unleash the short-sellers and algo's and rapidly drive gold to $1000 and possibly lower.
Are you folks really so dumb that you haven't figured this out yet? Have you guys been so stupid to BTFD in gold, all the way from $1900, just like those BTFD stock S&P500/DJIA bulls you so much despise? You honestly believe all the "shortage of physical supply" bullshit from the same screaming voices on KWN or TFMetals?
"Listen to the KWN interview with Fleckenstein, dickhead!"
Ok...
"You honestly believe all the "shortage of physical supply" bullshit from the same screaming voices on KWN or TFMetals?"
Um... It seems those 'screaming voices' sorta have your attention...
And if you like your Bullshit, you can KEEP your Bullshit!!
either way stocks should go down, or better yet should already be down. but i have to agree with squid II ,to da moon, baby, all fine in a faux econ, ha...
translated......JPM is long stocks
Mislav Matejka?
OH COME ON!
That's a good southern name there.....maybe from Alabama?
Matejka: MAY 20, 2015
...We like emerging markets, we like China, we like Turkey...
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/china-india-interesting-markets-matejka-0...
I SHIT YOU NOT. that guy is a fucking train wreck.
That name has got to be an anagram
And wasn't he one of the "Two Wild & Crazy Guys"?
cheeseburger cheeseburger cheeseburger cheeseburger no coke, pepsi
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwIhCD7T6fg
........chip chip
Over at Huffpost they explain all about the Fed and what its job is. What a load of rubbish!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/federal-reserve-interest-rates_55f1bb6de4b03784e27858bd
Then last night, 60 minutes did a piece on how the Christians are being forced out of Iraq by ISIS never talking about how the US created this mess. I’m not a religious person but I found it hypocritical how an archbishop in the church is on there asking for the US military’s help. Yes, more bombs is the answer. Is that what Jesus would do?
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iraq-christians-60-minutes-lara-logan/
I’m so glad we have sites like ZH to get the real scoop on things. I must have insomnia because now that I’m awake, I can’t go back to sleep.
Try the blue pill for sleep. Works everytime.
Over at Huffpost they explain all
Thanks for doing that for us....there's no way in hell I'm gonna read Huffpo.
Now who's got CNBC watch? What are those kids up to today?
I can scan the sunday comics section if you like.
CNBC....pom poms are out and Cramer is leading the kick line. "get out the kool aid all take a sip, get out your wallets and buy the fu%^ing dip"
Hypocracy is running rampant. Learn to nod, smile and go to your happy place when it's time to rest.
Even my 20 year olds read ZH. Quite refreshing.
Hypocracy.....Is that Government by little people?
And the rumors start. Must confuse the muppets for the last fleecing of the people.
Goldman already told you what will happen if you paid attention. Usually these fools will hop on one side spewing endless amounts of propaganda to the public/clients and will be doing the opposite.
The PPT is always bullish. US economy is sustained by wealth creation in the stock market as real economy fades. The Fed cannot permit US stocks to fall - Old Yeller's put is always working for you.
Heads they win ....tails they win...
I get it.....you're all like a bunch of bookies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4Uv4ftekaI
And just why are we taking advice from the bloodsucking TBTF banks?
Behind the banks are people (at least we are assuming they are people). These people use the power of the banks to control us and use us. It is not the banks per se, but the people who use them that are at war with the American people.
Who are they? We know a few, who are public figures, but there are more hidden away and not in the public eye.
It's the Reptilians behind the scenes; they don't pay interest and charge you your soul.
Well that's a relief.
I'd hate to think that humans could be responible for this mess.
If a small rate hike is good, then a large rate hike is even better. Let's normalize at this meeting. 4% here we come.
BTW, JPM lies and defrauds. Why would this time be any different. They cannot be trusted under any circumstances.
mabey ask yourself where the fuck is big money going to hide if stocks tank?? Bond-yields are low as fuck, so they don't provide return, yields has to go way up first before stocks can tank, mabey try to zoom out from ur 15sec charts
if u want comparison this is more 1927 than 1929
ZH writes some very good articles, but your total lack of market logic undermines most of what you are trying to do
@GanjaFarmer23
Ask yourself where is the big money going to hide when BONDS go bang!
That's the question
Stwaks may tank but they will fly with gold/silver when bonds go bang
JMHO
Yes, when bonds go bust, governments die...
Big difference, as millions of SNAP babies try to feed themselves...
Should bonds go bust, get long sharecropping and guillotines.
Mabey so, but not a given in US$ dollar terms. Most of the worlds imminent problems is outside of US, so i think you will see capital flow INTO the US resulting in a rising US$
And ofc if all bonds really tank and goverments go bust, u'd be better off with food and guns rather than gold/silver
Small minds actually believe that people who own gold don't also have food and guns? How moronic.....I bet you watch the Kartrashians, right?
I'm not from the US... afaik u are the only ones with kardashians and loads of freely available guns in the developed world
If governments actually go bust and everything turns into anarchy, why do you think it's set in stone that gold/silver will be the main form of barter?? Mabey try to learn more from history rather than cherrypicking whatever fits ur view.
Also no logic whatsoever, only thrashtalking.....
Shut off SNAP and let's find out if all the problems remain "outside of America"...
No-one is free, but US will be last. If capital starts flowing to the US from the rest of the world, eventually you will suffer a deflationary death. If you know a bit of economics EVERYTHING goes DOWN in such an event
LOL!!!! Sure, "officially" the price of many essentials will be very low. You simply will not be able to find any, that's all. The death of all fiat is a very different thing.
With 7+ billion people all competng for the remaining resources required for a decent standard of living, there will be plenty of demand you stupid fuck. The laws of physics and Nature rule the day moron. Good luck with that Ph.D. in eCONomics.
Petty trashtalking is the trait of actual morons.
I'm not bothered arguing with statistics, that has been proven true in all history
If the Fed can rig yields too, why not raise rates?
It's the most logical course for crazy.
Another reason to dump US paper.
So in otherwords JPM has some 'quality' stuff to sell you and you should buy it. To translate, roll to cash bitches.
I'd roll to silver eagles, if you can find them.
I think it's dumb to buy ASEs, but some like paying 30% over spot. I just don't get it.
You don't get it? Let me explain. It's called naked shorting 200X the physical that exists. Works until it doesn't.
Fuck these clowns and their market propaganda...
FUCK YOU, MATEJKA!!!!!!!!!! BASTARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
E V E R Y T H I N G ! ! ! is bullish for stocks, there is no such thing as bad news that means anything anymore.
JPM =
Just Print More
Yes, at this point, rates, much like the Fed and the dollar, are becoming irrelevant at an exponential rate...
Economic central planning, it's all good.
"It’s an admission that Wall Street threatens to reverse the recovery on Main Street"
Is that some funny shit or what? There is no "recover on Main Street", should have read "It’s an admission that Wall Street threatens to reverse the recovery on Wall Street"
Heh
GS just got the highest leadership post in auzi land..banksters banksters lead the way...we are fucked
Is there anything that is bearish stocks? These criminals will do whatever it takes to preserve their psuedo fiat wealth. Long stocks-short humanity.
So everything is awesome?!
Everything will continue to be awesome for the foreseeable future
ZH must be right, Goldman says they won't raise so they won't. Goldman never lies to fleece the muppets. /sarc off What's happened to ZH lately?
I bullish on butt-bleedage and anal mysteries.
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https://www.eurgold.eu/silver/american-eagle-1oz-silver-coin-1-dollar-le...
ONLY SIXTY DOLLARS FOR SHIPPING!!!!!
What JPM is trying to say is that no matter what, the FED's doing QE, whether you realize it or not. So OK, the FED might do some 'face saving' rate hike but will keep printing like crazy along side that, covertly and maybe later overtly.
+1 million ... and the scum-bags are coming out of the closet and are proud of their criminal bullshit now. Jamie Dimond - what a douche!
bullish
Just take it up already. We'll have the stars to guide us.. and keep the Moon beside us.
"Corporate monkeys crowd the theater, morsels of regret lay strewn upon the ground; tormented jesters strain at song but their tongues have been removed." - Clownadamus http://iamsully.com/?p=15055
With FED at your back they are absolutely right. The rate makes no difference The world's central banks are dedicated to levitating stock markets...so what if every banker becomes a billionaire.
Yeah JPM. You eated pieces of shit for breakfast.
Here is my prediction- Price of pet rock goes down either way
So let me get this straight -- QE = Bullish, no-QE = Bullish, Raise Rates = Bullish, Keep Rates Same = Bullish, NIRP = Bullish. Got it. Thanks, JP.