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The Week Ahead

RANSquawk Video's picture




 

· Thursday brings the much anticipated FOMC rate decision, with analysts split in their forecasts as to whether the central bank will hike rates after recent volatility in global markets

· A number of other events take place this week including rate decisions from the BoJ and SNB as well as releases of the German ZEW survey and the latest UK inflation & employment data

The week may kick off with reduced volumes as a result of the Rosh Hashanah holiday, the Jewish New Year, on Monday and Tuesday, however the second half of the week will see one of the most talked about Fed rate decisions for years. The FOMC rate decision is scheduled to be announced on Thursday, with many suggesting this is the closest the Fed have been to ending 7 years of zero rates. Interestingly there is a clear divergence between the view of analysts and the view of market participants, with CME Fed Watch showing markets currently pricing in just a 23% chance of a rate hike, while surveyed analysts have been relatively evenly split.

The focus appears to be a question of how `data dependent` the FOMC truly are, with the central bank stating a number of times that this is how the decision will be made. Data over the past few months out of the US has been fairly good, however some suggest the committee will find it hard to ignore the ongoing issues in China, as well as the ensuing global market volatility . Analysts at BNP have suggested Thursday’s meeting will have a dovish tone and the Fed will likely keep rates on hold, with the central bank likely to suggest that the global growth outlook has darkened and the outlook for inflation more uncertain, while analysts at Credit Suisse suggest that a hike in October or December is more likely. It is worth noting from a fixed income perspective that the aforementioned Jewish holiday at the beginning of the week, combined with uncertainty around the FOMC rate decision is likely to see a decline in corporate issuance after last week saw 34 separate issuers price USD 54.11bln in 65 tranches.

In terms of other events to look out for next week, the SNB will announce their latest policy decision, although analysts are relatively unanimous in expecting no major changes from the central bank. The BoJ will also announce their latest policy decision , although once again no major changes are expected here with Japanese LDP lawmaker Yamamoto calling for the BoJ to ease further at their October 30th meeting instead. Finally, other notable data releases come in the form of the German ZEW survey and latest UK inflation data, with analysts at Nordea suggesting UK CPI Y/Y may fall for the month of August to -0.2% (Prev. +0.1%).

 

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Mon, 09/14/2015 - 05:32 | 6545187 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

<-- Rate Hike 

<-- MOAR hot air & bullshit 

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 06:14 | 6545216 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

JUST DO IT!

NOW!

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 07:10 | 6545266 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

What can be expected from a wrongly "federal" labelled institution with wrong models, a wrong dual mandate, a unique track record of wrong forecasts and an unparalleled series of wrong decisions?

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 05:34 | 6545188 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Amerika, you are not worry, Federal Reserve is not raising interest rate. Duration Mismatch is now permanent feature of Fictional Reserve Banking System.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 07:14 | 6545290 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

Amerika, you are very worry, because is fucked up your middle class. You is financial chaos sooner or later.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 06:13 | 6545214 Four chan
Four chan's picture

awaiting interest rate prolapse.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 06:22 | 6545220 EurGold
Mon, 09/14/2015 - 06:51 | 6545263 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Sometimes I'm just left...completely...speechless:

A TRIUMPH OF DENIAL PROPAGANDA

It is sad that with humanity facing catastrophic climate disruption as part of an existential threat that there are still people willing to attack Mike Mann, one of the real heroes of climate science, outrageous lies. But one must admire the well-funded denier campaign, carried forward by the likes of Rupert Murdoch and his "False News" network, for the campaign's persistence in the face of massive evidence, its success in confusing much of the public, and creating a propioganda [sic] triumph equivalent to that of creationism in keeping Medieval nonsense embedded in the brains of many Americans. Unhappily the "triumph" may prove doom for many of our descendents [sic]. Mike Mann is admired by all real climate scientists, even those who may have same disagreements with him >>>(there is no certainty in science,<<< unlike in the world of denial propogandists [sic]) -- and I know many of the leading players and follow the field closely. The best one can say of this silly collection of comments from hacks and has-beens, mixed with quotes-out-of-context, is that it is NOT a disgrace to the profession of its perpetrators, nor to their pimps.

-- Amazon review of Mark Steyn's new book, 'A Disgrace to the Profession', left by Paul Ehrlich. Yes that Paul Ehrlich.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 07:04 | 6545278 wmbz
wmbz's picture

"Yes that Paul Ehrlich"

Bout all I can say about Paul "Douchbag" Ehrlich is  that he has always been wrong.

He's been pissed off all his life and teachs his tripe at a well known indoctrination center.

POS.

Mon, 09/14/2015 - 07:33 | 6545312 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

like they could raise rates..nobody in the fed is that stupid, yellen you say? well I could be wrong then.

mr beals of duke & duke has let the elite front run all of us for so long why change now?

i bet on moar qe, cause only idiots/crooks would do more. yellen step up.

the FED's track record speaks for itself.

devalued FRN's is the only chart that has any predictive value over any reasonable timeframe.

seems a equity bubble demands devalued FRN's..go ahead and raise rates  LOL.

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