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VIX Has Not Done This Since The USA Was Downgraded
The VIX term structure has been inverted (spot higher than 3rd futures) for 17 days - that is the longest period of backwardation since August 2011, when uncertainty soared around the USA credit rating downgrade. In fact, much of the VIX term structure is higher today than it was at the peak of the crisis on Black Monday as both government shutdown and Fed rate hike fears dominate the forward curve...
The longest streak of VIX curve inversion since the USA credit rating downgrade in 2011...
And longer-term VIX trades higher than it did on Black Monday...
With record VIX longs...
We are sure this will all end well.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Result of ETF's ... Derivatives of derivatives.
http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/09/odd-price-disparity-in-vix-hedges-du...
Calls on VXX . Derivative on a diverative of a diverative which is a diverative. What could go wrong.
That gave me a hard on...
Now I know what having a stroke feels like...
Strong Vic's Long.
Do I want the 3x inverse of this or not?
Do I want to punch myself in the nuts or not?
..and with a 99.9% short interest...
One minute you could have a net worth big enough to build a death star, the next minute the change beggar buys you coffee at the end of trading..
Quite a bit of open interest on the VXX options, and with the kind of moves that you would expect from a derivative ^ N.
Backwardation on the COMEX also. Backwardation in Hillary's campaign too.
We really need the Doom Ball to get rolling again.
The suspense is killing me...
Apple bobbing ?
VIX needs a lot of turf builder plus.
Maybe a hair transplant?
LOL
Cannot grow grass on rocks.
Moss, yes, but not grass.
Somebody knows something.
The Vix sounds like a great name for a watering hole.
There is no more toilet paper in the lav.
Sand your loft with Angel Soft.
Trader Vix...
Its been obvious the VIX has been manipulated down like gold and silver over the past few years. Now it's behaving badly sort of gold and silver supply crumbling.
VIX should of been at $12 by now and all the stores were supposed to be full of gold and silver coins collecting dust on shelves that no one wanted. Uh oh.... This is not working out as planned!!
Just how much will SHTF ? I mean the Dow has been constipated for how long ?
Do we really need a box of crayons and graph paper to know this market is going to hell in a handbasket (which I have no idea what that means but think it can't possibly be good)?
Fed allways has its eyes on those contracts. 17 days is too long. They are going after the volatity soon.
Bear flag pattern on all equity index, another 2000 points down before it gets some real support. We're just waiting for that start of next leg down! Black Swan? Rate hike? Shemitah? which one?
Well I would be shocked if the black swan was a rate hike.. I think it might be worse at this stage of the game that the system is still to vulnerable to handle a 25BPS rate raise, and either way markets sell off 5%..
Thursday. It will be along the lines of this...
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt."
Or in the FED's situation:
Better to not have to make a decision and be thought a fool than to make a decision (either way) and remove all doubt.
In short, it is a no-win situation for the FED.
Brazil unveil's a Multi-Billion $$$ Austerity Plan
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/brazil-government-said...
That, of course, means austerity for you, not for me. No politican or elite will miss his/her 7-course dinner.
After reading all the articles of today, and finding that the Jade Helm situation was just seting up, and no sign of the military leaving, and the immigration issue, california drought and burning to the ground with no rain and warm weather in the forecast for the next 2 months, etc etc (you read the same news as I do), .....hmmm, maybe shemitah has just begun......we will soon see I suppose...I am thinking before mid October much will be revealed.
Actually, Volatility is variable in the Black Scholes formula developed in the 1970's to evaluate bond and option fair values. It is the only variable in the formula that cannot be observed in the market. In non- math, layman terms it is a "fudge factor" that must be estimated.
Some bright scoundrel decided to let the market do the estimating by starting a Volatility furtures contract where you could bet your estimate was better than other' people's estimate. Some other dude decided the Volitility future contract itself was the best estimat of volatiility and started using that value to determine what options were worth.
So now we have a circular logic situation where options prices determine volatility and volatility determines option prices. Few traders and advisors today know exactly what the VIX is or if 1973 was before or after the US Civil War.
What could possibly go wrong?
I have never seen backwardation be anything but bearish. I know what people say it means. But every time I have seen it, it has precluded a spot implosion. And in a pure paper derivative product like VIX? So going by my experiences, someone probably knows the Fed won't raise, and they don't want to make it obvious by pounding on spot. But they have enough money to distort the rest of the market. So they are probably well informed. Good luck figuring this one out.
The vix is what again? Some gambling thing?
No worry, there's a 100% chance of QE4.
A much larger QE this time.
The Fed really has to increase QE this time.
Balance sheet doubles to $9 trillion.
More and more debt.
Just don't you worry about that "QE4"...If it comes, just will be weaker than the rest!
I'm not worried, still "shorting"