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Aussie Property Market Collapse Looms As Chinese Flee Amid Capital Controls
Given the recent admission by the Australian Central Bank that property prices "have gone crazy," it appears new Chinese 'regulations' may just kill Australia's golden goose of 'weath creation' as Aussie's largest trade partner sees its economy collapse. While the Aussies themselves proclaimed a "war on cash," it appears, as AFR reports, that Chinese purchases of Australian property have dropped significantly in the past month, according to agents, as buyers struggle to shift money out of the country following Beijing's move to tighten capital controls. With Chinese banks now limiting any overseas transfer to USD50,000 - in an effort to control capital outflows - and with China dominating the Aussie housing market, one agent exclaimed, "it has affected 70 to 80 per cent of current transactions and some have already been suspended."
To date Chinese investment has been overwhelmingly focussed on the most familiar capital city property markets of Melbourne and Sydney, with around 80 per cent of foreign investment hitting Victoria and New South Wales. As PeteWargent shows, China dominated the foreign buyer of Aussie homes...
As Bloomberg notes, Chinese buyers were approved to buy A$12.4 billion ($9.9 billion) of Australian real estate in 2013-14, the Foreign Investment Review Board said in its annual report, without differentiating between commercial and residential property. China's total approved investment in Australia was A$27.7 billion over the period, compared with the U.S.'s A$17.5 billion.
And Q1 2015 showed no signs of a slowdown in that flood of capital to Australia...
But now, as AFR reports, China's capital controls will kill that flow of money into Aussie property...
Chinese purchases of Australian property have dropped significantly in the past month, according to agents, as buyers struggle to shift money out of the country following Beijing's move to tighten capital controls.
One Chinese agent said the latest efforts by the central government to avoid large capital outflows were having a "significant impact" on his business.
"It has affected 70 to 80 per cent of current transactions and some have already been suspended," said the agent who asked not to be named.
The tighter foreign exchange rules are also set to impact the federal government's relaunched Significant Investor Visa (SIV), which provides fast-tracked residency for those investing at least $5 million into Australia.
"I think it will be big, big trouble for the SIV program because the amount of money is just too large," said one Shanghai-based adviser, who sells Australian property and advises wealthy clients on their migration plans.
Only seven SIV applications have been submitted since the new rules were introduced on July 1, which require investors to put their money into riskier assets such as venture capital and emerging companies.
China has previously tolerated significant capital outflows via so called "grey channels", but has tightened up enforcement in recent weeks as the economy slows and fears over capital flight put downward pressure on the currency.
The crackdown from Beijing has seen Chinese banks setting up watch lists for unusual transactions, according to one bank manager, who asked not to be named as he was not authorised to speak about the policy.
He said the operation was aimed at cracking down on a practice whereby family and friends of those wanting to purchase a property overseas all transfer US$50,000 into an overseas account. That's the limit each Chinese individual is allowed to move out of the country each year.
The purchaser then pays back his friends and family in China and uses the money from the overseas account to put down a deposit on the property.
However, banks are now tracking the source of funds for overseas bank accounts that have received more than US$200,000 within 90 days, according to the bank manager, who works in Shanghai for one of the major state-owned banks.
"We have always had this policy but now it has been restated and is being enforced more strictly," he said.
"In the past we could find a way around these rules but now all those ways have been blocked."
"I'm sure this would be having an impact on overseas property purchases," he said.
The tighter rules in China come as Sydney recorded its lowest auction clearance rate for the year this past weekend, while Melbourne has now recorded two weekends below the same time last year, according to Corelogic RP Data.
* * *
Finally, as we have noted previously,
The problem is that Australia, after decades of effort to diversify, is looking ever more like a petrodollar economy of the Middle East, but without the vast horde of foreign currency reserves to fall back on when commodity prices fall.
Instead, Australians must borrow to maintain the standards of living that the country has become accustomed to, which even some Greeks will admit is unsustainable.
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Clearly, the Aussies need to elect another prime minister to fix this.
I'm skeptical of all the "hot asian money" stories where an asian buyer buys sight unseen. This to me would be the PBOC acting as rich asians, propping up markets all over the world like they did with commodities. Yes, conspiratorial, but this is ZH right?
you should travel carpenter1.
It's quite common, and not just amongst foreigners. I've got friends who've done it multiple times. They just purchase it and then pay a real estate agent to take care of it.
You do realise that the new PM was the head of Goldman Sachs in the 1990's.
Wonder if the Goldman sachs overlords have had a quiet word to their new man at the helm downunder with the view of extracting wealth faster than when they didn't have an exGoldmanite at the helm.
Parliamentary party politics .. we don't choose / elect our leader. The ruling party hacks get that priviledge which is why the leader can be changed mid term without consulting the electorate.
We don't elect prime ministers, we elect a b o x o f c h o c o l a t e.
Bitcoin Last Price $231
BTFD!!!
Yes perhaps the 6th Prime Minister in 5 years will fix it
You would think they would figure out that the figurehead is not calling the shots.
telephone polls not electoral polls decide Aussie prime ministers
We have Aussies here in Singapore seeking "refuge" from their country. Their factories have been closing for years now. Car production is now nil. Alas it is becoming like USA - all fluff and no meat.
Don't be surprised if Australia becomes poor is a very short time. Those that bought real estate there would be best to sell now and get out while they can.
We still have 2% to move on rates which will keep the debt ponzi going a little while longer. Good advice though - I cashed out recently and am just trying to decide where the grass will be greenest the longest. Modern Aussies do seem to love a Nanny State which is a large part of the reason I'm leaving. Can hardly recognize the place these days .... An antfarm governed by a dictatorship that hangs you for smoking a joint is not for me though.
Glad I bought in Vancouver and not Australia!
The rents are reasonable if you are paid in USD.
Vancouver is next
BEIJING — More than 150 economic fugitives, many of whom are corrupt officials or suspected of graft in China, remain in the United States, state media reported on Monday, citing a senior official from the Ministry of Public Security.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/business/international/china-seeks-mor...
Many of their officals stole millions if not billions the peeple's money and scrammed according to this and many other articles.
At a time when Chinese capital and Chinese tourists are flooding into every corner of the world, the Chinese government is seeking the return of hundreds, possibly thousands, of former officials who have fled overseas, taking with them vast sums of illicit money to their newly adopted homes.
A list of 100 wanted criminals issued by Interpol in April showed that the majority were believed to be in North America, with 40 in the United States and 26 in Canada. Some of them have been on the run since the 1990s.
http://www.ejinsight.com/20150616-china-seeks-new-ways-to-repatriate-cor...
The long tongue of the Dragon ... or is it the tail?
Maybe China should send out the Triads to find these criminals or hire Dog The Bounty Hunter.
They could hire those Israeli Nazi Hunters who could hunt them down ... for a price, I'm sure.
I will bet that pretty soon, China will have a Golden Visa program for foreign investors ehe
a 20% deposit on an average home is 4 x average annual earnings.....you serious??
Yeah. In Sydney and Melbourne absolutely.
The current rent in DT Vancouver is $1700 CDN for 550 sq ft new build. There are apts that charge $5500 for 1700 sq ft though.
Australia Sleepwalking into a Recession
http://newworldorderwatchblog.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/australia-is-sleep...
All of these governments cooperated with their RE and banking secors to blow th ebiggest bubbles possible .. and take Billions in commissions and bonuses along the way. Apartments in places like Sydney are outrageous. Even out-of-the-way Perth is ridiculous.
Their choice is to copy USA and keep propping the RE market up wya higher then broke people can afford, or let the markets correct and revert to appropriate levels in line with incomes.
Canada is next
Vancouver, absofuckinlutely
The Aussies are going full Neocon with their F-18s helping ISIS and ZATO near Syria.
spooky Rodger Ramjet is on tv
That sounds like a porn parody waiting to be made...
This is just the first round.
Anyone want to bet that Chinese Government enforced repatriation of funds, by "criminal elements" and " criminal fraudsters" , not to mention "enemies of the people", is not going to be the next round.
Same thing in NZ I suspect.
Shanghai Penxgin, in trying to "quit" its NZ land holdings, may just be trying to get ahead of the rush , and move the money to somewhere "safer".
And yes , NZ recently updated its extradition procedure with China.
[I should have mentioned "economic fugitives " lol]
the only thing australia has to sell is dirt and china doesnt need any ore any longer. australia will collapse back to their standard of living circa 1950. hell, almost everyone i know in australia doesnt even have central a/c in thier home...?
Actually the 1950's was considerably better than now everyone had a job and everyone could afford a house
And a family could afford for one of the parents to stay home and raise the children.
Firstly, bullshit. Everyone in Australia has airconditioning. Secondly what the fuck does airconditioning central or otherwise have to do with anything. Australia is as leveraged up with airconditioning, big screen tvs, fucking iphones and new cars as any other population brimming with aspirational unreflective all consuming suburban dwelling fuckwits all around the world. America is shitting its pants and considering trump, China and India have a couple of billion people to stop from getting hungry and Western Europe is currently shitting its pants over what many consider to be an islamic "invasion." Most of the underdeveloped world still lives in 1950s conditions so really the western world will just be settling back to the global average.
bullshit....most homes in australia were not built with central a/c because people couldnt afford the elec costs. that is why they sell those wall mount units all my friends have installed. if the majority of the population couldnt afford a/c by the 1960's, that country was behind economically. period.
Rather ignorant comment from someone as dumb as the dirt they think is all Australia has to sell.
Australia has a large inbound tourism industry, now being flooded with Chinese. It has been selling education, primary, secondary and tertiary, for many decades to overseas students who study in Australia. It has a higher volume of foreign students per capita than the US or UK. It has large agricultural exports. It sells a large volume of business services (accounting, architecture, project management, etc) into Asia.
mining commodities exports are collapsing. meat exports are down. business services are great...because most of the contractors i know work in shutting down industries. thats a great career! tourism from the chinese....see how that goes going forward...hahaha. also your big customer for your lng is japan. now japan does have unlimited money since they print it like toilet paper.
the one thing you do have is great schools but as you import more 'darker skin' students you will have to lower the cirriculum so that they can pass. then your educational system will be at a third world level.
the future does look bright mate....
Get this shit from another blog!
A mate of mine is a real estate agent in Balwyn – the epicentre of Chinese investment in Melbourne property. He tells some interesting stories.
The new restrictions are really having an effect. One Chinese buyer had to go to extraordinary lengths to settle on a property last week. Apparently they used to be able to get lots of people in China to transfer $50k each to a single bank account here in Australia ($50k was the max you could transfer out in 3 or 6 months or something from a Chinese bank account). Now China is also tracking the account receiving the money – the same overseas account cannot receive more than $50k from Chinese accounts. Anyway, the Chinese buyer tried the ‘old’ approach and was rung by the Bank of China advising her that the attempted money transfers were illegal. The buyer needed about $2m. What they ended up doing was flying their whole family out (10+ people) to all set up bank accounts here in Australia. The flights would have cost of fortune. Plus they contacted people they knew in Australia to help out. They then used multiple accounts in China to transfer to multiple accounts in Australia, before putting the money into a single account in Australia.
So it’s much harder to get money out – but still possible. Has to stop some buyers, at least.
More generally my mate tells me that expressions of interest are down, there are fewer Chinese turning up to open for inspections, etc – all in the past 2 or so weeks.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/09/foreign-property-buyer-probes-ex...
That's sort of how corrupt local Chinese officials were buying 20-30 aprtments worth millions while their "official salary" was about $635/month. They had dozens of relatives buy one apartment apiece.
Now that the government is tracking them there they had to unload and are trying to buy overseas with illegal loot they have siphoned off somewhere. But I guess the long arm of Mao is nabbing them.
I have no problem with Chinese buying overseas and even encourage their gubmint to let them do what they want with their private money ... but I do agree they should nab corrupt officials who steal from their people or profit from insider trading.
...as if anyone wil listen to me.
Melbourne and Sydney went full retard on residential real estate quite a long time ago.....the prices are insane.
Aussies are the most idiotic of all the people on planet earth.....as an Aussie I'm allowed to say that, as it is an informed opinion.
Fark orf ya cunt! I'm an Ozzie... I'm fucken allowed to say that. Seriously though - a lot of Australians are as thick as two bricks.
Here are some examples of what is happening in Australia with real estate at the moment:
- Groups of people all living in the same street selling off their homes to developers so said developers can knock them all down and build multiple apartment blocks.
- People buying houses on decent parcels of land and either knocking them down and rebuilding something so massive there is less than 4ft to the property line, or subdividing the lot, building and selling that newly built house.
- Using your Superannuation funds (like a 401K) to purchase an investment property. People will shit bricks if prices drop, because they'll just have screwed their retirement plans.
- Strata Laws (sort of like HOA) have been updated so owner/occupiers in an apartment complex can be forced to sell if the majority of the owners want to knock down the complex and build it again.
- "Talking Heads" blame the "weak" Sydney housing market on "outer suburbs": http://www.domain.com.au/news/lowest-sydney-spring-auction-market-for-th...
Fuck both you cunts. :D
Yeh I hear ya on the housing mess. It's all new money bogges and wogs talk abo ut. Man, anything worse than hearing about someones newborn baby is sweat equity, marble tiles, stainess steel, feature walls and bamboo floors.
The worst part is how utterly preposterous the houses are for our conditions. Big, flat two story boxes with open floor plans, low cielings and shallow roof spaces. How anyone manages to afford to keep those death-boxes cool in the middle of summer boggles the mind.
Give me a an old farmhouse, with 9 foot cielings, every room able to be closed off and a huge veranda (particularly on the South and Western faces) any day.
Don't get me wrong, I love OZ. Almost married and settled in Melbourne when I was young. It is simply a great country. But, I hate housing bubbles! So, if the Aussies let themselves get sucked into these fake bubbles all around house specualtion, they then deserve to get a good wipe out. A house is a place to live and raise a family, a speculator just makes a home more expensive. Give up trying to get rich off of your home valuations, get a job and earn money the old fashioned way! Every house speculator deserves to be ruined. And I hear Melbourne property is insane! The little place we holed up in back in the late 80's is probably a million dollar property today. That's a fucking joke. A house is really no more valuable than what you can build a new one for. These older houses valued at millions of dollars is all bullshit!
Good suburbs in any major city anywhere in the world have exactly the same dynamic. You cant possibly ignore the concept that out of two identical houses, one with a view, near a city, in a safer area or whatever will be worth more than the other. How many years constitute a bubble? The Australian housing market has been increasing for about 3-4 decades with little interruption let alone deflation. I dont think a correction is impossible by the way, it will be interesting to see.
There'll be no correction until the baby boomers all die and the three houses they all own hit the market at the same time.
Guess Who - "She's Come Undone": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UoIMwQEgL8
Ditto for the FED and other Central Banker's gambuts.
running to buy into markets that are overrun doesnt make much sense - its like trying to do a deal to avoid taxes - invariably paying the tax would have been cheaper and better economics
there is a lot of wasted energy coming home to roost
The Fed owns the Bank of Oz. They will show them how to print money, and avoid a recession and mantain "demand". Prop up the housing market and stock market.
I mean what could possibly go worng?
Australia has been avoiding a recession since the early 90s. We're long overdue for one, based on "traditional economic theory". The problem is, a lot of manufacturing has disappeared, mining is still slowing, and more people are losing jobs because of "downsizing". These conditions have never really been experienced in Australia in the last 30 years, so what will happen is anyones guess. It won't be pretty.
I think there is still a lot of pent up local demand for property but as you say the economy is slowing so whether many will be able to take any advantage of it is anyones guess. There hasnt been a housing correction of any significance in Australia for 30 or more years so it will be interesting to see how the Chinese slowdown affects it.
The Australian branch of the Israel Loby controls who becomes Priminister. They decide not the voters.
The voters elected Abbot but an internal coup replaced him with a Goldman CONfederate Malcom Turnball.
[who was rejected by voters in the past when he was leader of the opposition]
No we didn't.
The voters in Waringah elected Abbott. The Liberal Party made him their leader, and by the fact of the Liberal Party holding the most seats after the last election, they got to form the Government and because they formed Government the leader of that party became the Prime Minister.
That is how the Westminster system works.
Don't get me wrong, he was totally booted by Godlman and I have no doubt it was because his personal morality was getting in the way of certain agendas. However, replacing the PM every six months is proof that the Westminster system works.
It's nice you've learned the theory of the Westminster system. However, you have apparently been blind to reality. At least since WWII by far the dominant factor in voting has been the leader and his standing.
As in the case of Abbott, the leader is chosen BEFORE the election and that person is a major factor in the electoral choice.
The parties are continually changin leaders because the leaders actually matter to the electorate. We don't elect an amorphous party and then have them sort out who will be leader and PM.
Most Australians who have voted into power a leader and their party get pissed off if that leader is deposed in a coup elevating someone we would have rejected had they lead the party at the prior election.
Next stop Toronto and Vancouver and rainbow iphone land USA.
Won't capital controls make it harder for the Chiese to do real business? No deals without government approval.
All the controls do is slow down transactions in the works. Now moving funds out of China will require longer planning. So expect delays. It takes about a year for "bootleggers" to get flows going after the start of prohibition. Banks will be happy to help - for a cut.
Why is there human ingenuity? To outsmart governments.
Don't worry a Goldman Sachs employee is going to help you dumb fucks.
You no understand. By us it is different with 30% of Irish heritage in special, no bubble here. Just keep on digging the dirt innocent mates, unjustly convicted by stealing a loaf of bread to survive.
So but this article is NONSENSE.There are NO CHINESE buyers pushing the property market up. Foreign Chinese buyers account for 2% of property sales.
Domestic chinese, well they are Aussies by citizenship.
THe Government uses the "FOREIGH CHINESE are BIDDING UP PROPERTY" story hence making it unaffordable for the young generation to buy, as the reason for the high proces. They dont want to admit the Reserve BAnk of AUstralia is the reason the propoerty market is so expensive. How do you tell the population that the kids cant buy a place as the RBA and the Banks are on an inflation debt Binge. Just as in the US, the RBA here has engineerred a property DEBT BUBBLE...... and they dont want to prick it.
SO they tell everyone the chinese are the culprits.
As i said, there is NO foreign chinese buying activity. people may see chinese buying at auctions , but they are Aussies.. and most white aussies are rascist so it easy to blame the "foreigners" buying at the auction.
Yes Australia is an all fluff and no ubstance economy rifing a debt binge to the max, and the property market looks extreme ans imo h has topped out.
The reason it has topped out is becasue the BANKING stocks, which are the engne for this debt binge have topped and turned south. CBA was $97, now it $75 or so.
Local house prices were $1 mill for a 10 year old 5 bedbrron house and a medium block out west of sydney. stupid proces, no one can afford UNLESS the Bank gives it to you in a 30 year mortgage.
Hey, PeterK, follow the money-trail. We have two young guys of Chinese origin working with us, both came to Australia a few years ago to attend local universities, both have Australian residency, both barely have any savings to speak of -- having only just recently started working. Both have been able to buy houses in Sydney over the $750,000 price tag. How? Both were sent money by members of their extended families in the PRC. Thousands of middle-class Chinese in the PRC are using their kids living or working in Australia as proxies to buy real-estate here. Why? Because they or their grand-parents remember the turmoil of the early to mid-20th century in China. They want to establish a refuge to escape to if China goes feral again. Additionally, Chinese prefer real estate but buying real estate in China is an extremely risky endeavour -- remember the stories of empty cities recently contructed?
hey australia blew up its 1st target in syria, an APC ! yippie, can I get an Oi oi oi?
thats right it was actually on the news,
until its back to 1500 oz of silver or 100 oz of gold for a house out here, ill keep stacking
It'll be fine, Goldman have a man on the case, as we speak.
Convenient timing that.
FUCK the United States of Australia.
At least we got rid of that Abbott ass clown and his incompetent buffoon of a treasurer Joe Hockey, what a fucking embarrassment those two were on the world stage!
The bizarre thing is over here we have a suburb called "Blacktown" which is a magnet for South Sudanese, the blackest people in the world, they seem quite chuffed we named a suburb after them!