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Bonds Baumgartner'd As Bad Data Sparks Unhedged Panic-Buying In Stocks, VXX Limit Down

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This seemed appropriate... bonds dump on weak data? FF futures do not move... Stocks surge on lower rate hike likelihood on weak data.

 

Before we get to the insanity of US equities... Bonds were the big story today...

Despite terrible data today... and no change in rate-hike odds...

 

But 12-month Treasury yields exploded today to April 2010 highs - up 7bps - this is the biggest absolute rise in yields since June 2009

 

And 2Y yields surged to April 2011 highs...

 

Here is what the bond complex looked like today!!! With 30Y yields above 3.05%...

 

Which leaves 2Y +30bps since the end of QE3 and the rest of the curve unchanged to 5bps lower in yield...

 

The safety-bid dump in bonds ignited low volume momentum in stocks helped along by USDJPY...

 

But perhaps the most worrying indicator is the continued surge in the TED Spread - indicating ongoing interbank counterparty risk concerns...

 

Futures show that this meltup started soon after the weak retail sales data (after a ramp post-China) and was helped by a series of weak data from IP to Biz Inventories...

 

With Trannies today's and the week's big winner...

 

VIX was pushed notably lower - with another of those odd tailing events into the close...

 

As The VIX Term Structure "normalized" from Oct 2015 expiration onwards...

 

As VXX was hammered (halted down 10% into the close)...

 

VXX broke below its 200-day moving average

 

The US Dollar jumped higher (hinting a rate hikes) despite the weak data... EUR weakness offset AUD strength as once again China was selling USDs and Europe buying...

 

Commodities generally drifted lower on USD strength but oil went crazy... Silver and Gold were bid into the close...

 

As is evident in the violent swings on White House crude export ban comments and NYMEX close idiocy...

 

But Oil Vol rose once again...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:08 | 6552271 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Whew, I was starting to get worried....back to my cheetos and TV

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:11 | 6552285 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

try the baked cheetos, you will live to enjoy a few more years of this shit-show

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:39 | 6552411 Tyrone Shoelaces
Tyrone Shoelaces's picture

Ya gotta put some Loosiana Hot Sauce on that shit, man.  Trust me on this.

It will make ya forget all about the crash.

 

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:54 | 6552495 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Get baked and then try cheetos. They taste better that way.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:27 | 6552358 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

No need to be worried, the best and brightest are on the job and only have your best interests in mind......

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:12 | 6552587 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Hey, here's a first.  When in history has a country entered a recession with interest rates already at ZERO from the last recession?

 

At some point the stock market might figure that one out.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:11 | 6552280 adr
adr's picture

WWWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!

 

Some people say they don't understand Jewish comedy. Seinfeld was a show about nothing, but somehow entertained millions of people.

Your stock market brought to you by Cosmo Kramer.

Come dance around the Festivus Bull.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:11 | 6552284 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Gartman's two remaining newletter clients are both scratching their heads thinking maybe he doesn't know what he's doing. Better late than never.  

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:42 | 6552430 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

There is a reason he is down to a virtual portfolio.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:16 | 6552288 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Classic low-volume “selling vacuum” just past the 20 MAs by large institutions who, flush with profits after shorting Apr-Jul and covering in late Aug, were not willing to enter new shorts below those central 20 DMA’s pre-Yellen (or the 200 DMA in hedge-fund hotel favorite the QQQs).  Thus, they step aside, and prices are sucked up like pet hair into a Hoover.  Should this theory hold, an overnight mini-dump might be in order; if not, bears will fear another possible ambush is in the works …

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:29 | 6552365 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

very Gartman-esq KCS

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:36 | 6552405 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Ha, couldn't be more different, I've been mentioning the central MA's as a key touchpoint for weeks, never wavering, but unlike Denny I'm not foolish enough to predict an ultimate direction, instead going to 100% cash at the end of each day.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:18 | 6552607 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

OK, just "busting your chops" you seem like a very good technician... and lyricist but that has been well documented!!

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 18:28 | 6552941 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Squid, you're just trying to butter me up so I'll do those Neil Sedaka parodies you've been craving.

Don't think I'd qualify as a 'technician', as I think 99% of traditional technical analysis is a complete load of crap:  chart patterns, candlestick formations (other than pin-bars), trendlines, MA crossovers, etc.  But envelopes around central MAs, artfully algo-ed in all chart time frames simultaneously, like various sized gears inside a watch movement, seems to be the main driver, but given their stops can be bigger than ours it's still very difficult to trade.  Clever folks, if we could only harness their brains to move the economy ...

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:14 | 6552297 adr
adr's picture

I guess if you're Japanese you don't want to make any foreign purchases at night. Strangely when you wake up your money is worth more than it was while you were sleeping.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:34 | 6552298 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

If they aren't careful they might break something important. Like say...Lew's ability to fund the government's off the balance sheet budget deficit via positive mark to market adjustments.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:14 | 6552300 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

“Yellen’s Coming”           from   “Eli’s Coming”           by Three Dog Night

Yellen's comin'   (Yellen's a-comin')
Well, you better widen your stops, your tight short stops
Yellen's a-comin' and the cards say:   a broken chart

Janet's comin', hedge your shorts, girl
Janet's comin', widen your stops, girl
Girl, Yellen's a-comin', you better hedge, girl
Yellen's a-comin', you better run, girl
Janet's a-comin', you better watch, girl
Janet's comin', watch your chart, girl (watch it)
You better, better watch your chart

Yellen’s comin', better run, run, but you'll never get away
No, you'll never get away from the churn and the head-fake
I got OCT puts on EBAY, and she’s everywhere I go

Janet’s a-comin’ (she bought, but she never sold in May)
Janet’s a-comin’ (she’ll tease, but she’ll never hike rates)
Janet’s a-comin’ (and she's comin' to get ya)
Just get down on your knees

Yellen's comin'   (Buy it, buy it, buy it)
Girl, Yellen's a-comin', you better buy, girl
Yellen's a-comin', so get long, girl
Yellen's a-comin', so no shorts, girl
Yellen's comin', throw a dart, girl   (buy it)
You may as well just throw a dart
Janet's comin', better go long
‘Cause you’ll never get away . . . etc., etc.

No-no, no-no -- Lord, I said no-no, no-no, no-no

(Hedge it) She’s here / (Close out) Buy it / (Widen it) You better / (Hide it) Somebody
(Go long) You got to / (Cover it) Oh, my / (Buy it) Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:14 | 6552303 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Hope everyone got a chance to load up on FAS ahead of the central banks ramp fest.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:15 | 6552310 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Absolutely disgraceful games by trash on Wall Streret and their friends at the Fed.  This shit is sickening!

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:20 | 6552328 we built this city
we built this city's picture

zh was wrong again !

 

said we are going to witness a massive  squeeze in the VXX - that no matter what will happene everybody is covering their short positions in VXX- and guess what ?? 

it was hammered from 31 to 23 !!! 

Again Zh has no clue about the market- and this is going on for the last 4 years !

 

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:26 | 6552354 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Why anyone would even poke at an ETF with a 10' pole is beyond me.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:31 | 6552378 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Not sure if you'll get any downvotes, but if you do it will be less because you dissed ZH staff, and more because your handle is named for a post-Balin "Starship" tune.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:26 | 6552653 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

when people 50 years from now try to comprehend the disaster of 1980's music, that song would be Exhibit A... lame attempt from a hippies, late 1960's band that was never good either but at least authentic

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:51 | 6552797 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Yeah, and seeing the video somehow made the earlier Grace Slick Airplane stuff less palatable, for me only the two slow Balin-sung tunes on Surrealistic, along with DCBA-25 and the Kaukenen instrumental are still worth a listen, though I'll admit I didn't mind Mickey Thomas' vocals on "Fooled Around and Fell in Love", but I was only 14 so what did I know ... 

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 18:06 | 6552848 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

it was a terrible band -  with all the great stuff going on, contemporaneously, let's face it...unless you were dropping alot of LSD

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 19:42 | 6553241 Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

White Rabbit - best early Jefferson Airplane tune ... awesome Grace Slick vocals ... Men on chessboards.

One pill makes you larger, and one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you, don't do anything at all Go ask Alice, when she's ten feet tall And if you go chasing rabbits, and you know you're going to fall
Tell 'em a hookah-smoking caterpillar has given you the call And call Alice, when she was just small When the men on the chessboard get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom, and your mind is moving low Go ask Alice, I think she'll know When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead
And the white knight is talking backwards
And the red queen's off with her head
Remember what the dormouse said
Feed your head, feed your head Drugs - it's what's for dessert in the '60s.
Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:57 | 6552827 orez65
orez65's picture

"... when people 50 years from now try to comprehend the disaster of 1980's music ..."

At least one can understand the lyrics.

Nowadays the lyrics are just noise in the background.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:35 | 6552393 pickupthatcan
pickupthatcan's picture

@ we built this city

I wonder what your book looks like Nostradamus?

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:36 | 6552397 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

When I saw that >100% of the VXX had been shorted I just assumed they would short even more and let time take care of the rest.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:59 | 6552516 MSimon
MSimon's picture

I'm a Jefferson fan.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:23 | 6552336 saints51
saints51's picture

I give this until the end of October. Nothing transpires I see no reason to hold the blue pill anymore. A nice big glass of crown and down she goes.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:30 | 6552372 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Wait till we start getting the 3rd quarter reports, that along with things like oil bonds are going to be tough to buff out......

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:36 | 6552403 saints51
saints51's picture

Yeah there is still hope. Sad we have to hope. Just realizing the FED has one hell of a printer. Not sure it will ever die without nukes flying. We may get our crash but it may do no good if nuclear war is occurring. I don't think a bank has ever had this much power in history.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:47 | 6552780 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

That is what non-GAAP accounting is for. One of the reasons I left the audit profession years ago I might add.

I long for the days when accounting fraud was busting on a regular basis and sociopaths were unable to cash in their stock options.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:28 | 6552363 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

this isn't the shemitah you were hoping for...maybe next time

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:32 | 6552383 saints51
saints51's picture

It is not over yet. Jubilee has begun. We still have some time left to see if it happens. Crude just hit $45 as I am typing. Just jumped 50 ticks in 2 minutes.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:51 | 6552799 o r c k
o r c k's picture

We've entered the "Shemitah stretch".  (if it's even CLOSE to the Shemitah it's the Shemitah)

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:29 | 6552366 q99x2
q99x2's picture

With spot silver at $14.37 and physical silver at 20 per ounce does that mean that since you can't buy silver at spot that paper silver holders that choose to take cash for say 100,000 ounces only get $1,437,000 instead of $2,000,000 for like a 25% loss on their money.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:32 | 6552381 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Don't forget the 10% bonus for showing a Bitcoin paper "wallet".

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 19:45 | 6553251 2big2save
2big2save's picture

Physical silver, in the form of 100 ounce bars, is currently around $15.50.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:30 | 6552374 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

I look at it as there is always free cheese in the mouse trap.

Just enough to get more and more people LURED back into the market.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:35 | 6552387 matermaker
matermaker's picture

Simon Black had an interesting article in my inbox, today.  Claimed that after the Fed has bought 4.5 trillion in bonds over the last 7 years, their capital is sitting at 1.3% of assets.  Lehman had 3% right before she went titts up.   What WOULD the FED do if bond prices tanked?  admit insolvency or just add a half dozen zeros and hope nobody noticed?  It was also mentioned, by someone that I can't remember at the moment; if the markets don't tank this week, or even rise, it puts even more pressure on Janet to hike on Thursday.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:06 | 6552552 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

Couldn't they just hold to maturity?  It's just recycled paper both literally and figuratively.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 17:56 | 6552826 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Bankers rarely hold to maturity, it gets rolled over - it really is a great game / scam.

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:35 | 6552395 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

I would presume with the low volume action yesterday on the Dow. EVERYONE KNEW what today would bring..

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 16:42 | 6552432 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Just another "normal" day at the pretend market!

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 19:09 | 6553101 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Isnt it time for a bonds and stock divergence post Tyler?

Bonds pricing in a raise, stocks pricing in a push, or possible easing, and PMs frankly scratching thier balls...

 

Tue, 09/15/2015 - 19:44 | 6553248 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

DOW 20K BY X-MAS!

ALL IS WELL!

(where's my cocaine?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w6F9w7FBM8

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