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Bonds Baumgartner'd As Bad Data Sparks Unhedged Panic-Buying In Stocks, VXX Limit Down
This seemed appropriate... bonds dump on weak data? FF futures do not move... Stocks surge on lower rate hike likelihood on weak data.
Before we get to the insanity of US equities... Bonds were the big story today...
Despite terrible data today... and no change in rate-hike odds...
But 12-month Treasury yields exploded today to April 2010 highs - up 7bps - this is the biggest absolute rise in yields since June 2009
And 2Y yields surged to April 2011 highs...
Here is what the bond complex looked like today!!! With 30Y yields above 3.05%...
Which leaves 2Y +30bps since the end of QE3 and the rest of the curve unchanged to 5bps lower in yield...
The safety-bid dump in bonds ignited low volume momentum in stocks helped along by USDJPY...
But perhaps the most worrying indicator is the continued surge in the TED Spread - indicating ongoing interbank counterparty risk concerns...
Futures show that this meltup started soon after the weak retail sales data (after a ramp post-China) and was helped by a series of weak data from IP to Biz Inventories...
With Trannies today's and the week's big winner...
VIX was pushed notably lower - with another of those odd tailing events into the close...
As The VIX Term Structure "normalized" from Oct 2015 expiration onwards...
As VXX was hammered (halted down 10% into the close)...
VXX broke below its 200-day moving average
The US Dollar jumped higher (hinting a rate hikes) despite the weak data... EUR weakness offset AUD strength as once again China was selling USDs and Europe buying...
Commodities generally drifted lower on USD strength but oil went crazy... Silver and Gold were bid into the close...
As is evident in the violent swings on White House crude export ban comments and NYMEX close idiocy...
But Oil Vol rose once again...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Whew, I was starting to get worried....back to my cheetos and TV
try the baked cheetos, you will live to enjoy a few more years of this shit-show
Ya gotta put some Loosiana Hot Sauce on that shit, man. Trust me on this.
It will make ya forget all about the crash.
Get baked and then try cheetos. They taste better that way.
No need to be worried, the best and brightest are on the job and only have your best interests in mind......
Hey, here's a first. When in history has a country entered a recession with interest rates already at ZERO from the last recession?
At some point the stock market might figure that one out.
WWWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!
Some people say they don't understand Jewish comedy. Seinfeld was a show about nothing, but somehow entertained millions of people.
Your stock market brought to you by Cosmo Kramer.
Come dance around the Festivus Bull.
Gartman's two remaining newletter clients are both scratching their heads thinking maybe he doesn't know what he's doing. Better late than never.
There is a reason he is down to a virtual portfolio.
Classic low-volume “selling vacuum” just past the 20 MAs by large institutions who, flush with profits after shorting Apr-Jul and covering in late Aug, were not willing to enter new shorts below those central 20 DMA’s pre-Yellen (or the 200 DMA in hedge-fund hotel favorite the QQQs). Thus, they step aside, and prices are sucked up like pet hair into a Hoover. Should this theory hold, an overnight mini-dump might be in order; if not, bears will fear another possible ambush is in the works …
very Gartman-esq KCS
Ha, couldn't be more different, I've been mentioning the central MA's as a key touchpoint for weeks, never wavering, but unlike Denny I'm not foolish enough to predict an ultimate direction, instead going to 100% cash at the end of each day.
OK, just "busting your chops" you seem like a very good technician... and lyricist but that has been well documented!!
Squid, you're just trying to butter me up so I'll do those Neil Sedaka parodies you've been craving.
Don't think I'd qualify as a 'technician', as I think 99% of traditional technical analysis is a complete load of crap: chart patterns, candlestick formations (other than pin-bars), trendlines, MA crossovers, etc. But envelopes around central MAs, artfully algo-ed in all chart time frames simultaneously, like various sized gears inside a watch movement, seems to be the main driver, but given their stops can be bigger than ours it's still very difficult to trade. Clever folks, if we could only harness their brains to move the economy ...
I guess if you're Japanese you don't want to make any foreign purchases at night. Strangely when you wake up your money is worth more than it was while you were sleeping.
If they aren't careful they might break something important. Like say...Lew's ability to fund the government's off the balance sheet budget deficit via positive mark to market adjustments.
“Yellen’s Coming” from “Eli’s Coming” by Three Dog Night
Yellen's comin' (Yellen's a-comin')
Well, you better widen your stops, your tight short stops
Yellen's a-comin' and the cards say: a broken chart
Janet's comin', hedge your shorts, girl
Janet's comin', widen your stops, girl
Girl, Yellen's a-comin', you better hedge, girl
Yellen's a-comin', you better run, girl
Janet's a-comin', you better watch, girl
Janet's comin', watch your chart, girl (watch it)
You better, better watch your chart
Yellen’s comin', better run, run, but you'll never get away
No, you'll never get away from the churn and the head-fake
I got OCT puts on EBAY, and she’s everywhere I go
Janet’s a-comin’ (she bought, but she never sold in May)
Janet’s a-comin’ (she’ll tease, but she’ll never hike rates)
Janet’s a-comin’ (and she's comin' to get ya)
Just get down on your knees
Yellen's comin' (Buy it, buy it, buy it)
Girl, Yellen's a-comin', you better buy, girl
Yellen's a-comin', so get long, girl
Yellen's a-comin', so no shorts, girl
Yellen's comin', throw a dart, girl (buy it)
You may as well just throw a dart
Janet's comin', better go long
‘Cause you’ll never get away . . . etc., etc.
No-no, no-no -- Lord, I said no-no, no-no, no-no
(Hedge it) She’s here / (Close out) Buy it / (Widen it) You better / (Hide it) Somebody
(Go long) You got to / (Cover it) Oh, my / (Buy it) Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh
Hope everyone got a chance to load up on FAS ahead of the central banks ramp fest.
Absolutely disgraceful games by trash on Wall Streret and their friends at the Fed. This shit is sickening!
zh was wrong again !
said we are going to witness a massive squeeze in the VXX - that no matter what will happene everybody is covering their short positions in VXX- and guess what ??
it was hammered from 31 to 23 !!!
Again Zh has no clue about the market- and this is going on for the last 4 years !
Why anyone would even poke at an ETF with a 10' pole is beyond me.
Not sure if you'll get any downvotes, but if you do it will be less because you dissed ZH staff, and more because your handle is named for a post-Balin "Starship" tune.
when people 50 years from now try to comprehend the disaster of 1980's music, that song would be Exhibit A... lame attempt from a hippies, late 1960's band that was never good either but at least authentic
Yeah, and seeing the video somehow made the earlier Grace Slick Airplane stuff less palatable, for me only the two slow Balin-sung tunes on Surrealistic, along with DCBA-25 and the Kaukenen instrumental are still worth a listen, though I'll admit I didn't mind Mickey Thomas' vocals on "Fooled Around and Fell in Love", but I was only 14 so what did I know ...
it was a terrible band - with all the great stuff going on, contemporaneously, let's face it...unless you were dropping alot of LSD
White Rabbit - best early Jefferson Airplane tune ... awesome Grace Slick vocals ... Men on chessboards.
One pill makes you larger, and one pill makes you smallAnd the ones that mother gives you, don't do anything at all Go ask Alice, when she's ten feet tall And if you go chasing rabbits, and you know you're going to fall
Tell 'em a hookah-smoking caterpillar has given you the call And call Alice, when she was just small When the men on the chessboard get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom, and your mind is moving low Go ask Alice, I think she'll know When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead
And the white knight is talking backwards
And the red queen's off with her head
Remember what the dormouse said
Feed your head, feed your head Drugs - it's what's for dessert in the '60s.
"... when people 50 years from now try to comprehend the disaster of 1980's music ..."
At least one can understand the lyrics.
Nowadays the lyrics are just noise in the background.
@ we built this city
I wonder what your book looks like Nostradamus?
When I saw that >100% of the VXX had been shorted I just assumed they would short even more and let time take care of the rest.
I'm a Jefferson fan.
I give this until the end of October. Nothing transpires I see no reason to hold the blue pill anymore. A nice big glass of crown and down she goes.
Wait till we start getting the 3rd quarter reports, that along with things like oil bonds are going to be tough to buff out......
Yeah there is still hope. Sad we have to hope. Just realizing the FED has one hell of a printer. Not sure it will ever die without nukes flying. We may get our crash but it may do no good if nuclear war is occurring. I don't think a bank has ever had this much power in history.
That is what non-GAAP accounting is for. One of the reasons I left the audit profession years ago I might add.
I long for the days when accounting fraud was busting on a regular basis and sociopaths were unable to cash in their stock options.
this isn't the shemitah you were hoping for...maybe next time
It is not over yet. Jubilee has begun. We still have some time left to see if it happens. Crude just hit $45 as I am typing. Just jumped 50 ticks in 2 minutes.
We've entered the "Shemitah stretch". (if it's even CLOSE to the Shemitah it's the Shemitah)
With spot silver at $14.37 and physical silver at 20 per ounce does that mean that since you can't buy silver at spot that paper silver holders that choose to take cash for say 100,000 ounces only get $1,437,000 instead of $2,000,000 for like a 25% loss on their money.
Don't forget the 10% bonus for showing a Bitcoin paper "wallet".
Physical silver, in the form of 100 ounce bars, is currently around $15.50.
I look at it as there is always free cheese in the mouse trap.
Just enough to get more and more people LURED back into the market.
Simon Black had an interesting article in my inbox, today. Claimed that after the Fed has bought 4.5 trillion in bonds over the last 7 years, their capital is sitting at 1.3% of assets. Lehman had 3% right before she went titts up. What WOULD the FED do if bond prices tanked? admit insolvency or just add a half dozen zeros and hope nobody noticed? It was also mentioned, by someone that I can't remember at the moment; if the markets don't tank this week, or even rise, it puts even more pressure on Janet to hike on Thursday.
Couldn't they just hold to maturity? It's just recycled paper both literally and figuratively.
Bankers rarely hold to maturity, it gets rolled over - it really is a great game / scam.
I would presume with the low volume action yesterday on the Dow. EVERYONE KNEW what today would bring..
Just another "normal" day at the pretend market!
Isnt it time for a bonds and stock divergence post Tyler?
Bonds pricing in a raise, stocks pricing in a push, or possible easing, and PMs frankly scratching thier balls...
DOW 20K BY X-MAS!
ALL IS WELL!
(where's my cocaine?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w6F9w7FBM8