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Recession Looms As Empire Manufacturing Collapse Show No Signs Of A Bounce
Despite some strangely optimistic expectation of a -0.5 print, September Empire Manufacturing printed -14.67, showing absolutely no hockeynesian dead-cat bounce mean-reversion. Hovering at the worst levels since April 2009, the underlying data is a total disaster. New Orders remain firmly negative and inventories collapse (who could have seen that coming?), and even more concerningly, employment and average workweek plunged into negative territory for the first time in over a year.
The read through the inflation outlook and for jobs - non-hamburger flipping jobs that is - from this report was simply abysmal:
Price changes were quite modest. The prices paid index slipped to 4.1, its lowest level since the Great Recession. The prices received index dipped below zero, falling six points to -5.2 in a sign that selling prices declined. Labor market conditions worsened,
with declines in employment levels and hours worked. The index for number of employees fell below zero for the first time in well over two years, slipping eight points to -6.2, and the average workweek index dropped to -10.3.
There was no silver lining pretty much anywhere in either the 6 month outlook or the current conditions:

Worst of all: the optimism is now gone. From the report:
Indexes for the six-month outlook displayed less optimism about future conditions than in August. The index for future business conditions fell ten points to 23.2.
Indexes for expected new orders and shipments dropped to similar levels, and the indexes for both future prices paid and future prices received declined. The index for expected number of employees edged up to 7.2, while the index for future average workweek turned negative. The index for expected capital expenditures fell six points to 11.3, and the technology spending index dropped to 2.1, indicating that tech spending plans were essentially flat.
Simply put, this report suggests total carnage in the manufacturing sector and, just as we have pointed out (most recently here and here), the exuberant inventory over-accumulation of the past few years - from Fed-deluded malinvestment - is about to come crashing down.
Charts: Bloomberg
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bullish
#winning
DJIA 30,000
It's war time, bitches.
You go first
I'm too old now, bwahahaha
Been there, done that.
The question is do we go for sand again? Or more jungle? Or do we go back to quaint towns that were rebuilt 70 years ago? Clearly, they need some windows broken.
We haven't done jungle in a while.
"The question is do we go for sand again?"
The question is: if the only thing under Iraqi sand was more sand, would we have gone there at all?
The question is: was it even worth going there for the oil?
Laughable!
Not sure what you are seeing, the 2nd derivative is quite bullish! Inventories are down.
Higher rates AHOY!!
But stocks are still good right?
Negative is Positive ?
2 more days.
With fiat being pushed into a rabbit hole, why is gold not skyrocketing right now?
How long can they keep it down?
I guess the answer to this can be seen in how long they've kept stocks up
Don't ask questions. Just buy while you can.
Quit worring about it, dude. It will happen when it happens.
Why do I feel like there is going to be a rate hike with all the bad data points saying otherwise?
Because they have too, save the world or save thier ass, you know the answers
I'm starting a Web site that sells bricks and mortor.
The view from where I sit here in Rochester is looking pretty bleak.
Small contract shops which were still bullish 2-3 months ago, suddenly stopped hiring, ended expansion plans, etc. I really do think the shit show is unraveling.
I caught some TV over the weekend, and noticed that commercials for 2015 vehicles seemed to be abundant, even for this time of year. Saw maybe one commercial for 2016 vehicles, I think it was Ford trucks
Watch your six, shit might be getting real, finally.
Here in North Carolina.
MillerCoors says it is closing down their Eden, North Carolina plant next September. This will result in the loss of 500 jobs and $1.4 million in water revenue.
Talking about beer here.
Also nephew was laid off of from Caterpillar as a welder in Sanford NC. They built skid-loaders.
Guess construction is down.
I've heard Cat's plants in SC are not doing all that well, they're outside Columbia.
http://www.journalnow.com/business/blogs/millercoors-to-close-eden-brewe...
"Since the creation of MillerCoors seven years ago, volume has declined by nearly 10 million barrels," or the equivalent of a single plant's production, the company said. "This volume loss is due to a variety of factors, including economic challenges, an explosion of choice and fragmentation within the beer business, and a dramatic change in the way consumers engage with brands.
10M barrels is quite a drop in volume.
Two Caterpillar plants near my home town in NH are shutting down and moving operations further south in the region to consolidate with another existing facility.
Less than 2% of clothes are made in the USA today.
50% were made in USA in 1990, 29% in 2000. Today, less than 2%.
Gutted.
Robots don't need cloths
Off topic....I'm in HR..yes I know everyone hates us. I have employee with a Black LIves Matter T-shirt today...I have had multiple people come in and complain about it. Our vague gray policy says NO t-shirts with Offense language... In today's PC world it seems like everything is offensive!! I think I will put a sign on my door that says WHAT DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT DOES IT MAKE!"
that shirt should not be in the office. Send the person home or offer them a suitable replacement to wear.
'HR Lives Matter'?
good one!! All Lives Matter!
It is in a warehouse pick pack environment.
It's a physics t-shirt. Word order got jumbled. It should read Black Matter Lives!
Oh that captain janet may drive a golden spike through the heart of this zombie financial monster. And mark her victory with a golden shower on the servers of mawah.
"Do not worry", Bernspankellen was quoted, "the interest rates are in the grave but largely contained". Housing prices are unlikely unlikely unlikely. "I don't buy your premise", it was quoted, "it is pretty unlikely premise that any Central Bank can make mistakes".
I'm long shovels and shovel ready jobs.
Short Boots:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKWvk4eoMH4
Our inventories our steady, but the world is melting down.
I work in the Steel Industry and can tell you first hand that we are being anhililated. Personally I've lost about $35,000 dollars this year so far and expecting to lose another 10 to $15,000 more. Over the past 3 months I've averaged about what a fast food employee brings home. What they are doing is cutting us down to basically a janitorial position which is a pay cut of about 3 to $400 dollars a week and then they do plant shUT downs every few weeks and force us to take our vacation weeks so that the numbers look better. This is military industrial complex shit. We were told they weren't allowed to lay us off (by who??) even if it means bleeding the place completely. The board of directors for this blood letting all serve on the big 500's boards they all are in on it. I think when this thing comes undone the state is not going to have enough funds to pay for the unemployment and they know it. Alot of guys making good money are going to be fucked for good, I'm talking losing everything. Personally I think the big reason for the hard core 2nd Amendment take down is that the Rulers know this shit and in a "Wild West" scenario big boys become targets. They are not lying when they say the plebes can't be trusted with a gun.
Now part of the rust belt.
My electronics magazines are half the size they were 12 months ago. That is a fair concurrent indicator. Ads go down when profits go down.
How can you NOT buy in this market?
Here are more signs of a coming recession.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record...
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/24/would-you-pay-39-more-than-asked/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/when-will-we-ever-learn/
Here is how to respond.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
Rate hike or not does not matter. It's only a sideshow to distract your attention from the fact that the collapse has accelerated tremendously. Remember collapse is not an event, but a process.