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Fed "Up" - Stocks Squeezed To 'Black Monday' Highs, Crude Rips, Bonds Dip
Ahead of tomorrow's crucial meeting, this seemed appropriate...
Pulling back briefly, we see what magnetic attractor grabbed stocks by the short-and-curlies... the scene of the crime from Black Monday...
Simply put, the algos ran all the post-Black-Monday stops today - what happens next...
But still red from FOMC Minutes...
it's been quite a week of exuberance in stocks as shitty data has comforted algos that there will be no hike...
Since Friday,
VIX was bid after Europe closed as perhaps there was some fear after all...
It appears VXX and stocks were in sync as OPEX and ETF rolls wreaked havoc with protection...
Post-CPI, Gold & Stocks were up equally as Bonds drifted lowewr...
High yield bonds did not feel the equity exuberance love today...
Treasury yields push on higher again - though more rangebound...
The US Dollar round-tripped - sold thru the European close and then bid... as AUD strength continued...
Commodities surged afte CPI data hit...
With Crude ripping on the DOE data and then exaggerated by Syria concerns...
Because - with USDJPY rangebound, the algos love Crude...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: SKEW is extremely elevated once again...
ChOTD-9/16/15 #1) CBOE SKEW Index: “Tail Risk “Indicator Flashes Odd Extreme Reading $VIX $SPY pic.twitter.com/BC0TbzYrP1
— Dana Lyons (@JLyonsFundMgmt) September 16, 2015
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Now we just need Denny to reverse his short in the morning.
<---- No rate hike
<---- Rate hike
Rate hike + QE4
Outstanding recaps, Tyler. Truly professional. Many thanks.
Agreed, best chart porn on the planet...
DaddyO
You might be right...but I don't think so this time.
May not be much, but they'll do something because credibility is at stake. That matters more than the weakness in someone else's economy.
USA Watchdog.com has a great new interview with David Stockman, where David says essentially the same thing. The zero bound is trashing what 2008 didn't chew up. That cannot be allowed to continue.
I think the Fed will have more to answer for if they DON'T raise rates than if they do.
But...we could be wrong.
m
They have to decide to do something first, but nobody wants to be responsible for any outcome, Do nothing is the easiest.....
um..actually they don't have to answer for anything. and therein lies the problem
Spx sitting at 1987 right now...take that as a sign.
Fed intentions leak like an 80 yo granma .... risk off !
But the Fed hasn't leaked anything to any of the banks or hedge funds - no, that wouldn't be right!
Nor will they tell (or imply) their inner circles, family, friends, or kind what might be a good idea before the market closes or first thing to do in the a.m.
Collapse/Shemetah has been postponed...I guess Jade Helm needs more prep.
Ya looks like a dud.
The Shemetah Stretch is engaged.
Israel just declared war on 'rock throwers'. I'd say a new Intifada is just as big as, or even bigger than, a stock market crash considering the current Middle East situation.
And that's apart from the other huge events of the weekend: an effective end to the EU and paradoxically a beginning of the EU Army. As well, the market did crash and they instituted QE-Invisible.
Jade Helm = dress rehearsal
“Magic” by Pilot
(Sung by perma-bulls thriving on low volume, oil spikes and crappy economic data)
Ho-ho-ho -- It's magic !
You know, never believe it's not so
It's magic you know
Never believe it's not so
Never miss a head-fake
Never seen the Dow break
Trading from my pillow in the morning
Lazy day in bed with my E-Trade app and FRED
Crazy futures ramping in the morning light
Ho-ho-ho It's magic !
You know, never believe it's not so …
I love the early trade
New highs not far away
Reaming overnight shorts in the morning
Before they even wake, margin levels break
Profits from my pillow in the morning light
Ho-ho-ho It’s magic !
LOL KCS, lovin it
Tell you what's magic. That ZH triangle chart.
It has TRAP written all over it.
Watch what happens over the next few weeks, particularly when they've cleared the bears' stops above.
May begin as early as Friday's open, though likely later.
In any event we will reshape that triangle :)
Never in history have battle lines been drawn so openly for all to see -- which makes me suspicious. With everyone expecting a binary outcome (smash to new highs, or dump to 2008 levels in a day), our hexadecimal friends may decide to frustrate all parties, perhaps by heading halfway to the highs, then halfway to the lows, then back to the 20MAs, known as the "piss-'em-all-off" algo ...
Let's hope the algos continue to re-shape patterns, hunt stops and take the "haf way back" trades.
Too long than I care to think about I've been caught wrong sided but slowly learning their hex ways.
our hexadecimal friends
Octal my friend. Octal.
Bravo, KCS.
You've been on quite a roll lately.
White is black, up is down, shit is shit, makes no difference if the un-fed raises by a punk ass .025% or they don't.
The stawk market loves it either way, they pitch and they catch! AC/DC
This is about the easiest money you will ever make in the market. Up we go to at least 2137, but probably way beyond that. The Fed is scared and now before every meeting TPTB will drop the market 10% and keep them at bay and then run it up to new highs again
So I assume you are leveraged long out the ass Just that easy.
If you call a substantial number of ES futures purchased last week levered long then yes
Good for you. Since so easy I assume you have all you got in it and will be retired soon. Good luck.
Good luck, I closed out today. $TRIN sell means I have small short (ES) overnight, only looking to take 3-4 handle on limit. Seems to me the easy money has been made, gets a little tougher from here?
Why ES if you're an "NDX trader"? I suppose with the QQQs' recovery near the 200 last week and closest to the 8/20 dump point of all major indices, you'd get more bang for your buck with S&Ps.
...but they dont want to LOOK scared so the .25 bump will be talked down as though it is nothing.
The big boys would already know and be hedging accordingly. No indication of that - just the opposite
True dat. People need to realise the Chinese political influence on the Fed's susposed independance too.
Goldman doesn't want the rate hike so there won't be one.
Was that the "official" meeting or the discussion in te hallway?
Nor do you see them shorting the 20 year UST
Has been an easy ride for sure. Traders' delight even. Oh, and there's that Dow future's resistance level that "can't be broken", at least according to ZH. LOL
Been a while since I posted here the market would be heading up into Sept 16th, but here we are. You can bet the "smart money" is off-loading stocks here big-time.
Exactly when does that top come in? Thought so.
Morning in America!
OK got 15 earthquakes today with several of them directly under Cushing. I wonder how the storage tanks are holding up?
Doesn't matter cause they are insured and it is not their fault, by law it's an act of god, see how easy it is to legislate freedom?
1.0 Richter is nothing. 9.0 Richter is serious. The scale is logarithmic.
Most were in the 2-4 range. None were less than 1.9. More than 2000 of these in the past year.
A very quiet day in San Francisco.
funny that Japan style zero interest has led them to be downgrade...the third largest economy...and we jump on the news. Just unbelieveable what a fraud market we have
Perhaps COMEX runs dry tomorrow. Barbarous pet rock!
Sure, why would the algo's not ramp shit back up before tomorrow at Noon?
Either way they can sell everything before the retail folks or pension funds blink.
Yeah, these low-volume helium-sucking algorithms remind you of that dork in your third grade class that acted like a clown every time there was a substitute teacher, then behaved like a model citizen as soon as the nuns recovered from their lumbago
ZH, can you get rid of that queer in underwear ad that keeps popping up?
Ads are a function of your browsing history, so...
Use Firefox and Adblock plus, no ads.
some would say that's a feature. can we have some girls in underwear, maybe some American Apparel ads?
Sell the rip tomorrow.
Why does the Shemitah have to mean stock market collapse? Why can't it mean something else? After all, in ancient times it was about it washing away of debts. Could the debt it speaks of being washed away be the US national debt?
No one anwsered your question so I will have a go.
It does not really mean market collapse, just a "re-ordering" of things, but, I think 2 of the last 3 Shemitah have featured market crashes, which is why everyone is associating the two events.
The macro has been shitty Tyler.
I find it laughable that the equity markets started levitating, as bonds all along the curve steepened, right from the Sunday open in Asia.
It's almost as if Mr. Yellen had a video-conference at the 'Halls of Central Manipulation' over the W/E.
Pretty much
AntiFabian's picture
Why does the Shemitah have to mean stock market collapse? Why can't it mean something else? After all, in ancient times it was about it washing away of debts. Could the debt it speaks of being washed away be the US national debt?
I've been FED UP since 2004, have the bumper sticker on the rear bumper of my van
We know, and you best cut that rolling through stop signs shit out.
NSA
it's all low hanging fruit to the machines.
I put money in Scottrade. I'm not going to be caught not participating in the death of the stock markets. I want to be there; Q99X2 fighting Goldman Sachs the mighty squid as it finally dies and attempts to turn the military against the citizens of the US. This is a great time to be alive.