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The BLS Just "Revised" Away One Full Month Of Job Gains For Year Ending March 2015

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As if there was not enough negative data for the Fed to contend with, and make the case for a rate hike delay already, moments ago the BLS released the preliminary estimate of its "annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series" for the 12 month period ended March 2015.  While the final report will not be released until February 5, 2016, with the publication of the January 2016 Employment Situation news release, today's release will give the Fed yet another reason for concern as the BLS just admitted that at least 208K total jobs (and 255K private jobs) were overestimated in the year ending March 2015.

This is equivalent to eliminating nearly one full month of job gains in the specified 12 month period, and spread across the various months, would have meant a constant series of NFP headline misses instead of consensus beats, likely leading to a far more adverse algo kneejerk reaction on the first Friday of every month.

From the BLS:

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For National CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus three-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2015 total nonfarm employment of -208,000 (-0.1 percent).

 

Preliminary benchmark revisions are calculated only for the month of March 2015 for the major industry sectors in table 1. The existing employment series are not updated with the release of the preliminary benchmark estimate. The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued.

 

Table 1 shows the March 2015 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at an aggregated level.

And here is the latest quandary for the Fed which mercifully will be able to ignore this latest confirmation the economy has been slowing down substantially in the past year, well above what the various other economic indicators have already suggested.

 

 

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Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:17 | 6560097 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oh, that rate increase is SO on now.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:32 | 6560147 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

A+ for the Bureau of Lies & Subterfuge (BLS)

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:43 | 6560172 localsavage
localsavage's picture

Maybe they should just get the numbers right before they report them.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:59 | 6560216 ThirteenthFloor
ThirteenthFloor's picture

They just realized a rate hike might impact gov spending and their jobs, so a revision was in order. "Now FRB please do not raise rates".

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:52 | 6560197 Mostly Harmless
Mostly Harmless's picture

I'm gonna file this in my, "Things that don't surprise me anymore…and I wish they did" File.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:35 | 6560153 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

whooopsy

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:20 | 6560112 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You mean they <gulp!> lied?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:02 | 6560135 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Well it did work.. for a while.

"When things get serious" and all that.

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:22 | 6560121 Laddie
Laddie's picture

Immigrants are doing quite well, native-born American Whites, not so good.

The TPP, TiSA:
FOIA request confirms presence of immigration chapter in Obamatrade

OBAMA TO ADMIT 100,000 REFUGEES INTO USA

CENSUS: Foreign-Born Incomes Increase, Native-Born Incomes Decline

Overall income down 6.5% since start of recession

Immigrant Population Hits Record 42.1 Million

The number of immigrants in the United States is now enormous, but it must be recognized that most immigrants, including those from Latin America, are in the country legally. Absent a change in legal immigration policy, the immigrant population will continue to increase.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:25 | 6560127 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

BLS: Bunch a' Lying Scumbags

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:35 | 6560154 Börjesson
Börjesson's picture

Or "Bureau of Lies and Sugarcoating"...

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:34 | 6560144 Mr. Bones
Mr. Bones's picture

That sounds like a headline that won't play under this administration.

 

They might mention the revisions in construction and government though.

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:32 | 6560146 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Only .gov is capable of overestimating a number they make up.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:52 | 6560193 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

It's quite a skill. Notice that .gov employment is up. They needed more people to make the lies

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:04 | 6560230 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I'm stealing that phrase.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:32 | 6560148 rejected
rejected's picture

HP,,, another 30,000 gone.

A friend went to Yellowstone Park,,, said most working their were foreigners.We can't cook and wait tables any longer? Talk about!

I mean,,, what does everyone expect. 100% employment of all foreign nationals?

For 60 years I have watched this country go to shit,,, now everyone wonders why?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:50 | 6560187 replaceme
replaceme's picture

Does anyone invest based on those numbers any more, or do people invest based on their guess as the the algos' reactions to the headlines? Invest like one might do at the local racino, when you invest in penny slot machines.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:54 | 6560200 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

They do it for the children (of obama).

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:44 | 6560338 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

where did all those construction jobs come from?

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:46 | 6560350 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

Holy shit. Depending on how you apportioned that it could mean that every jobs report for 6-8 months missed. What a joke

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