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The Complete FOMC Cheat Sheet: All You Need To Know

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The data, according to many analysts, have been broadly supportive, with stronger growth and a tightening in the labor market that should allow the Fed to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will gradually return to target. That said, heightened global risks could lead to a tactical delay. Economisseds remain evenly split on the prospect of the first rate increase in 9 years.

Fed fund futures price 30% odds of move this mo. and more than 50% chance in Dec.

Barclays (Michael Gapen, Rob Martin, Blerina Uruci)

  • Fed to stay on hold for now, lift rates in March
  • FOMC should delay liftoff as it assesses downside risks to outlook

BMO (Aaron Kohli)

  • “Our core view remains that liftoff is a 2015 event”
  • Whether Fed hikes or not is less important than impact of their “net communication” on mkts; “real question” is whether communication eases or tightens conditions

BNP (economists)

  • FOMC to give dovish projections at this mtg, delay liftoff
  • Yellen to reiterate action later this yr

BoT-Mit (Chris Rupkey)

  • Fed should be “propelled into action” at this mtg
  • U.S. economy remains on track for Fed to raise rates

Brean (Russ Certo)

  • Fed may be ready for rate hike, not mkts

Credit Agricole (David Keeble)

  • Fed Sept. mtg is “very live,” yet may lead to delay in liftoff

Credit Suisse (research analysts)

  • FOMC won’t hike in Sept., may hint at Oct. or Dec.
  • Timing largely contingent on global conditions/financial mkt volatility

DB (Joseph LaVorgna, Brett Ryan, Aditya Bhave)

  • FOMC likely to say prudent course is “to do nothing,” favor waiting to see how economic/financial “landscape” evolve before Oct. mtg

FTN (Chris Low)

  • Fed will choose to raise rates now; officials will agree 25bps is no “big deal one way or the other”

Jefferies (Ward McCarthy, Thomas Simons)

  • Fed will make modest changes to statement, mostly on economic/labor mkt assessment; both should be more optimistic than in July
  • 2015 median dot should decline to 0.375%, suggesting just 1 hike before end of yr
  • Fed will also announce press conferences after each mtg until liftoff

JPM (Michael Feroli)

  • Sept. mtg “very close call,” odds tilt toward liftoff

Macquarie (Nizam Idris)

  • FOMC increase of 12.5bps can’t be ruled out

MFR (Josh Shapiro)

  • Odds are slightly higher of liftoff in Oct. than now
  • FOMC statement should hint “strongly at such a move”

Mizuho (Steven Ricchiuto)

  • Fed may not get conditions needed to hike until 2H 2016

Nomura (George Goncalves)

  • Fed will probably skip liftoff Thursday
  • Officials to say conditions aren’t right to hike

Pimco (Harley Bassman)

  • Fed needs to “remove Hamlet’s cape,” hike now
  • Policy makers have all information they need to act now

RBC (Tom Porcelli, Jacob Oubina, Michael Cloherty, Dan Grubert)

  • Fed, to liftoff, would likely want to nudge mkt odds higher
  • Less than 50% odds, coupled with no new guidance before FOMC mtg, means RBC will have to mark down its own odds of Sept. liftoff

Renaissance (Neil Dutta)

  • Fed most likely to pass on rate increase Thursday; odds of move are 50%

Sberbank (Tom Levinson)

  • “We narrowly favor a hike,” with Fed trying to turn volatile mkt conditions to its advantage
  • Liftoff now may subdue anxiety, signal confidence, improve risk sentiment in 4Q

Scotiabank’s Guy Haselmann

  • FOMC needs to rip “band aid off,” hike already
  • Uncertainty around liftoff has made mkts “untradeable and wildly volatile”

Societe Generale (strategists)

  • Minimal liftoff could bring relief
  • Fed rate increase would deliver positive signal on U.S. economy, remove uncertainty

TD (Millan Mulraine)

  • Fed to err on side of caution, take pass on liftoff for now
  • Dots will reflect slower pace of stimulus withdrawal, lower terminal rate once liftoff begins

Wells Fargo (John Silvia, Mark Vitner, Michael Brown)

  • Liftoff won’t be any easier in Oct. or Dec. than now
  • Sticking with view that Fed will lift off at this mtg by 25bps

And finally BofAML...

A key question is whether FOMC officials will pencil in one or two hikes for this year. Fed Chair Yellen will emphasize in the press conference that this is not a "one and done" tightening. While the trajectory will be data dependent, the Fed anticipates a gradual path of higher rates over time. She may acknowledge downside risks from the global economy and tighter financial conditions as factors that could slow the hiking cycle.

In an effort to simplify the conversation, BofAML shows outcomes for the Fed under their baseline scenario of a hike and the alternative of a delay...

Source: Bloomberg, BofA

*  *  *

Trade Accordingly...

 

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Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:35 | 6560295 coinhead
coinhead's picture

< - They raise

< - Yet another head-fake

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:37 | 6560303 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

You'll know when the market starts moving with real volume, which should be sometime before the news is released to the public.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:50 | 6560370 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

My statement, regardless of their decision, would be the same either way, buckle up those seat belts, gonna get weird and bumpy.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 14:13 | 6561045 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

I'm wagering they'll raise.

Either way, my submerged locker is a few coins heavier from purchases made last week in light of this event. 

Stack'em while they last, bitchezz........ 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:35 | 6560296 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

just hike it you pussies

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:51 | 6560667 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Somebody needs to introduce the Fed Funds Rate to some Viagra or Cialis seeing how limp its been for the past nine years.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:56 | 6560688 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

The Fed can hike #deeznuts.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 17:23 | 6562351 Beowulf55
Beowulf55's picture

Read my pussy lips...........no new rate hike..........

 

 

Ain't go'in to happen...........not now............not ever............

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:36 | 6560299 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Isn't the Fed's target range 0-.25%?  Even if the Fed Funds rate is raised to .25% it isn't a "rate hike."  This is all bull crap!

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:44 | 6560332 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

If people stopped watching the Fed rate circus they might notice the depression forming.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 14:08 | 6560992 Tarzan
Tarzan's picture

exactly, Recession is a best case outcome, depression most likely.  History is repeating and nobody is paying attention. 

 

Wayne Angell, Former Fed Governor, to Niel Cavuto Minutes ago,

"I don't think these low interest rates have meant that much"

"We're about where we would have been"

"No I don't think there's much Bubble out there, I'm not worried about that"

 

"free" money from the Fed to the primary dealers, who loan it to speculators at interest, has fueled Leveraged money (AKA other peoples money) in the speculative markets, which in turn artificially pumps valuations.  If that's not a bubble what is?

Here's a quote from the book, A Nation of Deadbeats, by Professor Scott Reynolds Nelson concerning the great depression.

"In 1928 the bond market seized up as foreign borrowers (Germany especially) began to default; banks then provided high-interest call loans to speculators in the stock market.  Stock Valuations doubled between 1928 and 1929 and then crashed.  With both kinds of toxic assets on there hands, hundreds of banks like the Bank of the United States failed between 1929 and 1933."

You may think a 4% loan is a low rate, but that ignores the relative primary rates being payed.  If a Primary dealer gets money for free and loans it out at over 3% it is excessive.  Anything over 3% is historically corrosive to the Markets and leads to imbalances.  There is no mystery here, if we are students of history.  When markets are fueled by leveraged money it's always bad!

I'm just a blue collar guy with little, but growing, knowledge of the exotic and complex finance industry and may be way off, so tell me how it's different this time, how this will not lead to a depression???

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:36 | 6560300 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Ooooo!  This is just so EXCITING.  I can't wait to see how it turns out.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:42 | 6560322 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Exactly what I was thinking.  I wonder what the decline in GDP has been over the last few weeks as everyone waits with baited breath for what they'll do?  Gotta be worse than a Noreaster.

Shows how empty the real economy really is.  The Fed should be largely insignificant if the economy could stand on its own 2 feet and was 'normal'.  But it has turned into a Dog & Pony show.

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:36 | 6560301 venturen
venturen's picture

I can already hear the sound of that can being kicked

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:40 | 6560316 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

In the time it takes for that sound to travel from the can to your ear, the algos have already traded in front of you five times.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:04 | 6560434 venturen
venturen's picture

didn't you know it is a Goldman can that is self kicking?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:00 | 6560311 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

has anyone put together the CNBC drinking-game keywords? 

Or if CNBC is on, start drinking? 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:40 | 6560312 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

I do not see taking rates to -0.25% on that list.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:41 | 6560318 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

This rate hike is as good as done.

If she does not do the .25 token gesture increase,  the Fed loses all respect,  and any mafia  organisation  knows the value  of respect.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:36 | 6560593 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

Ah, yes.  But, consider.  Raising a paltry .25% is actually kicking the can!  The banksters will still line up at the window every night for .25% money, lend it to the same government they borrowed it from at 2.18%, and call it capitalism.  When it is, as stated elsewhere today, total BS.

Craig

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:31 | 6560321 nnnnnn
nnnnnn's picture

 

 

today an another jew-holiday

EVERYONE HAPPY RAT KIKE DECISION

 

 

edit: wow so many downvotes      seems like people here dont like jew-holidays    you stupid antisemites

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:43 | 6560329 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't see  "bankers in jail" on that list, so I guess it doesn't have everything I need to know on it.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:28 | 6560804 WTFRLY
WTFRLY's picture

Yes

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:47 | 6560348 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I think they will raise because they've sucessfully been able to manipulate all the economic data and the stock markets and the DHS and FEMA are fully armed. The economy will continue to improve according to the statistics as the military and various agencies roll out across the nation to crush those that are complaining about starving; to stop the revolution. They are banksters. That's what banksters do.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:48 | 6560360 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Spin the wheel ..... the ball will land on either red or black.

This is still a casino, right ?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:03 | 6560428 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

So you do not hedge the greens?

 

The House loves a sucker.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:48 | 6560363 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Markets have had months to prepare so the end result will be a stock rally. Either through no raise, or a slower projected timeframe for future raises. 

Do you believe for 1 second that Lloyd doesn't know the outcome?? Please.

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:48 | 6560364 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

All you need to know is look at today's action.  The Fed owns the market.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:49 | 6560366 Mr. Schmilkies
Mr. Schmilkies's picture

If it's not obvious what the Fed will do, and it's not, then the Fed has failed.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:51 | 6560376 gammab0y
gammab0y's picture

Bloom County explained all you ever need to know about economists:

http://www.gocomics.com/bloomcounty/2009/12/24

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:40 | 6560614 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

Thank you for improving my day with excellent humor.  Berkeley Breathed is amazing! 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:53 | 6560389 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Ignore the bankster fucks.  GET GOLD BITCHEZ,

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:53 | 6560390 richiebaby
richiebaby's picture

My sources tell me a rate hike will be announced today. 

The PPT arrived at the NY Fed this morning wearing hard hats

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:57 | 6560397 brada1013567
brada1013567's picture

Watching the talking heads on TV reminds me of the rumble in "Anchorman, the legend of Ron Burgundy"

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:04 | 6560429 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

Fuck'em.  I refuse to loan them my money.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:07 | 6560439 khnum
khnum's picture

The author forgot Nostradamus,Rasputin and Ezekiel

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:11 | 6560468 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

I vote for a rate hike followed by massive QE, either out in the open or in the shadows.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:53 | 6560676 Armed Resistance
Armed Resistance's picture

Massive QE IS happening, it's just being done covertly.  

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:12 | 6560477 brada1013567
brada1013567's picture

The Fed has had to come up with a brand new scheme to affect rate policy due to the humongous amount of excess reserves in the system, I seriously doubt that it is ready for prime time.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:14 | 6560484 BellevueTrader
BellevueTrader's picture

Just do it already!! PPT will step in if rigged market stumbles....Casino always wins.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:15 | 6560487 jon dough
jon dough's picture

Economisseds remain evenly split on the prospect of the first rate increase in 9 years.

 

ECONOMISSEDS...now, that's funny

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:14 | 6560488 Mini-Me
Mini-Me's picture

Liftoff?  A 25 basis point rise (at best) is considered a liftoff?  What a joke.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:27 | 6560548 khnum
khnum's picture

what use is viagra if the economy has testicular cancer?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:22 | 6560529 Redart
Redart's picture

No raise. Buy eur-usd now

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:25 | 6560539 Redart
Redart's picture

S&P limit buy order at 1942.25

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:29 | 6560553 Twox2
Twox2's picture

If the Fed does raise rates, the decision may well go down in history as the Smoot Hawley of the forex markets.  I don’t know what the rate threshold is to induce capital flight from emerging markets, but I suspect Yellen doesn’t either.  A rising dollar, exported inflation and crashing stock markets in developing countries is probably not the outcome the fed is seeking.  Pressure to protect currencies in free-fall could quickly deplete foreign exchange reserves, leaving vulnerable currencies at risk of implosion.

Many of us have read about unstable systems and the experiments (Abelian Sand Pile Model) that describe networks of instability.  In a critical state, the final grain of sand may cause nothing to happen, or it may cause the whole pile to collapse.  Similar dynamics are in play with regard to snow banks and avalanches.

Yellen had no idea whether the next snowflake she drops on the pile will cause a forex avalanche.  But know this:  If capital flight in emerging markets ensues, she should forever be known as “Snowflake”.

Why would Snowflake go against the conventional wisdom? One thought…a social context observation, not a sexist remark:  Because she is a woman in what has traditionally been a man’s role.  She has something to prove, and doing nothing also does nothing to establish her legacy.  Acting, on the other hand, likely cements it, for better or worse.  Will she feel the pressure to “man up”?

Many today quote Mark Twain without attribution, subtly claiming his memorable quote as their own:  “History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.”  Is is time for a rhyme about 1929?  At 2:00 PM today, we will see if Yellen is a poet…

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:44 | 6560640 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

What rhymes with 1929?  How about, Wall Street Whine? 

Got my popcorn at ready!  Fun day ahead.

Craig

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:46 | 6560645 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

Either way, gold and silver will go down.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:54 | 6560677 Sir SpeaksALot
Sir SpeaksALot's picture

 will just announce that it s gonna hike in 3 months to allow markets to prepare (crash couple times)

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:57 | 6560691 coast
coast's picture

Jade Helm ended September 15th....I saw dozens of videos with them coming, but none of them leaving....have the walmarts opened back up yet?  just sayin.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:58 | 6560699 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

LTC/CNY says no hike

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:02 | 6560709 moneylover3
moneylover3's picture

11/02/2106:Almost 100% chance of hikes...!Yikes!

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:05 | 6560714 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

The suckling will continue.

 They have an exit plan. To bad it has nothing to do with intrest rates.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:10 | 6560731 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

poppycock

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:11 | 6560740 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

it was the best of times..it was the worst of times - a tale of two shitties, i mean cities

if any central bank ever had any impact on an economy or competitive product/service pricing or quality or jobs other than creating temporary distortions by those who can "game the system"...i am yet to be convinced, so in the words of Bill Murray

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UZvIZAHjlY

then we can get back to central bankers sterilizing each other next week

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1voj6H8CHY

yawn

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:14 | 6560745 brada1013567
brada1013567's picture

Pencils down papers in. Prof. Yellen has to write the summary.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:15 | 6560751 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

If the fed was going to raise rates. There would be massive front running going on right now to the shortside?No?

 These talks of raising rates have been a great way to burn the shorts. It seems to me going long on the biggest short possition would be the best bet.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:17 | 6560761 Able Ape
Able Ape's picture

Raising rates is like sticking your dick in a Cuisinart [the Large model of course] - who wants to go first?...

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:17 | 6560762 Seal
Seal's picture

QE contra QT

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:20 | 6560774 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

BofMAL:  They must have wrote the script.

ZH'ers

Will kick the can down the road = Yes

OR

Will raise rates by .25 basis points or less = NO

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:21 | 6560779 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Is there a good way to tell what the biggest short possition is?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:23 | 6560784 Redart
Redart's picture

Too much resistance by darkpools, market slightly up on very high volume and no darkpool spoofers = short s&pit all, 30 seconds before decision. Short

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:23 | 6560785 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Who leaked it early this time?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:28 | 6560807 surf0766
surf0766's picture

A rate hike will cause trillions to flow into the US and push inflation through the roof. They know this.  They will not raise rates

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:43 | 6560854 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Couldn't that be the intent?  Then they could blame China & Russia, since the lag would be at least 24-48 hours - enough to propagate the narrative and further delay for the actual result to reach US shores openly.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 14:01 | 6560918 surf0766
surf0766's picture

I think not

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:29 | 6560810 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

The mrket is already betting their is no rate hike or they are setting up for a "Bull Squeeze".

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:39 | 6560839 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture

I say because the FED is a self-serving organization; they raise rates.  It will not impact the election at this point and it puts everything on Obama’s watch, if you believe in political manipulations.

This is just a guess for fun—I know nothing.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:40 | 6560843 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

No rate hike pussys

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:49 | 6560875 craigh01
craigh01's picture

 

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:48 | 6560876 craigh01
craigh01's picture

I have searched and searched and can't find, does anyone know what time to expect the announcement?  

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:51 | 6560885 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

9 minutes at 1 pm CST

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:56 | 6560904 r00t61
r00t61's picture

2 pm Eastern.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:53 | 6560891 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

o/`It's the final countdown ... o/`

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 13:58 | 6560909 Head_Shots_Work
Head_Shots_Work's picture

Yeah, like a bunch of economisseds (or as I prefer to call them - "idiots who don't know their ass from a hole in the ground") agreeing to anything would make me consider anything they had to say 'relevant'. Holy shit. Before the depression 99% were saying 'full steam ahead boys!'  - this article is a waste. 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 14:01 | 6560917 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

Haha!  They blinked.  Pussies!

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 14:07 | 6560982 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

As if it matters.

 

Once you jump off a ten story building, it doesn't matter if you land on your head or your feet.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!