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Fed Chickens Out Again, Fails To Raise For 55th Consecutive Time - FOMC Statement Comparison
Goldman wins again.
With a 54-0 record without a rate hike (better than Floyd Mayweather's), and 58 Economisseds expecting no change, 3 a half-pregnant 13bps hike, and 53 expecting a 25bps hike, The Fed was always going to break someone's heart today. Bond yields and the USD were tumbling into the decision, which appeared correct as The Fed chickened out again...
- **FOMC: NO POLICY CHANGE, 0-0.25% TARGET 'REMAINS APPROPRIATE'
- **FOMC: GLOBAL ECON,FIN EVENTS 'MAY RESTRAIN ECON ACTIVITY'
- **FOMC: VOTE 9-1; LACKER DISSENTS, WANTED 25 BPS HIKE
Given the "no hike", it is clear that, as we noted, Goldman is still in charge and Hilsy is still leaker-in-chief. All eyes now on the dot-plots as The Fed desperately tries to regain some credibility, stifle uncertainty, and calmly reassure markets that "we've got your back."
Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2000.5, 10Y 2.26%, 2Y 77.5bps, EUR 1.1330, Gold $1118
Additional headlines include:
- **FOMC LOWERS L-RUN EQUILIBRIUM FFR EST TO 3.5% V 3.8% JUNE
- **FOMC: 11 PARTICIPANTS SEE FFR BELOW 0.5% END 2015 VS 7 JUNE
- **FOMC: ECON WILL EXPAND MODERATE PACE W/ 'APPROPRIATE' ACCOM
- *FOMC: LABOR MKT IMPROVED,'SOLID' JOB GAINS, UNEMP DECLINING
- *FOMC: ONE PARTICIPANT SEES NEGATIVE FFR END-2015 & END-2016
- *FED: MKT-BASED MEASURES OF INFLATION COMPENSATION MOVED LOWER
Here are the key changes to the statement, which confirm the Fed's third mandate is now official: global stability:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
June indicatesJuly suggests that economic activityhas beenis expandingmoderately in recent months. Growth inat a moderate pace. Household spendinghas been moderateand business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector hasshown additional improvementimproved further; however,business fixed investment andnet exportsstayedhave been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance,a range oflabor market indicatorssuggestsshow that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflectingearlierdeclines in energy prices anddecreasingin prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensationremain lowmoved lower; survey?-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced
.but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term,but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects ofearlierdeclines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
The world of economisseds was evenly split...
But ahead of the meeting, bond yields started to rip lower...
* * *
Since the last FOMC Statement (at the end of July) and FOMC Minutes (8/19), equities and bonds have underperformed...
Hike! - 42-year low jobless claims...
Don't Hike! - Inflation expectations testing post-crisis lows...
Not "Priced In"
Charts: Bloomberg
* * *
Full Redline Statement below:
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Yellen should be dressed as a Leprechaun.
The FOMC decision will contain:
468 "You'll never get me lucky charms”.
61 “Donald Trump”.
2 “Mazel Tov”.
1 “Allah Akbar”, at the end. ;-)
Looney
What a joke... QE infinity ZIRP to eternity
Mazeltov! Yellen.
When this bubble bursts, it will be quite spectacular.
QE47 , what a joke.
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
All eyes now on the dot-plots as The Fed desperately tries to regain some credibility, stifle uncertainty, and calmly reassure markets that "we've got your back." AND YOUR BUTT
Janet Yellen- "We'll raise them rates next time, just you watch and see!"
John Boehner- "We'll stop them Democrats next time, just you watch and see!"
I detect a pattern. A vague connection somehow.
WOW! Big F'n surprise Janet!!
even bigger surprise was the 9-1 vote.
The game.....is acting as if they are actually considering a rate increase. They have no intentions of ever raising rates....eventually, they do understand that some SHTF event will force them into it, then they can hide behind that event. Otherwise, they will never man up.
Rates are never going up because this baby is headed to full meltdown. There will be no "rates" involved with whatever rises from the ashes.
I would love to feel good about your Janet Yellen comment and say, "I told you so!" and pat myself on the back. But then you added the Boehner stuff and it all went out the window because you are so right.
Thanks, thanks a lot for ruining my day.
I think black helicopters are going to take on a whole diffrent meaning :-)
cash drops would bea real nice QE.
The jawbone effect is wearing mighty thin. They will never raise unless they are aiming for a controlled demolition although they won't really have much control at that point.
I think the tradition of circumcision left her scarred for life.
China will force the bad consequences the FED is desperately trying to avoid.
Yeah, time for another war in the Middle East, to boost the economy.
Singing to the Clash:
We really don't like them,
Let's rocket the casbah!
Let's rocket the casbah!
Not the Mid East! Those fuckers are too tough for our PC transgender army. Lets take on Canada.
Who tha fuck would want dem fag eating Canadians? Could you imagine another 33 million left liberal, gun stealing, humanitarian bomber types polluting the Amerikan political spectrum, clamoring for welfare and demanding that the pronouns 'he' and 'she' be PC'ed to Ze and Zir?
https://genderneutralpronoun.wordpress.com/tag/ze-and-zir/
LOL, look at the DOW yo-yo back and forth as the herd tries to figure out whether the market should go up or down.
How long will the vertical line in PMs last. A harbinger....
How did rates know to drop a few minutes BEFORE the Fed announced their decision? Oh. Oh, yeah.
Wall Street ain't rich enough!!!!!
This just proves to me that things are really shitty out there in the world economy. All this bullshit data that says things are good is just that, BULLSHIT!! The truth was shown today. Prepare for shitty times my friends.
You're nuts! O'bamanomics has neve rbeen robuster!
Layoffs to begin this fall at Home Depot center in Hagerstown"... more than 300 jobs there ..."
http://www.heraldmailmedia.com/news/local/layoffs-to-begin-this-fall-at-...
Good for a 1% drop in the jobless rate using their BLS equations.
I've said for years.... "Hope & Change" was nothing but "Hoax & Chains". Everyday it's proven true.... over and over and over....
yea rates plunge right into the announcement and stay practically static; pricing in the entire move... hmmmmm
Just a suggestion on your moniker. Do you think CONDOMS would be more appropriate? _JOHNLGALT
Same way that someone bought almost 2,000,000 shares of the 300% leveraged Gold Miners 2 minutes before the announcement...its a big club and you ain't in it!
No white smoke, no change, and no new pope, just the same acrid black smoke blowing up all our arses.
The white smoke will announce QE4.1 soon enough, but not before they shake the market tree first.
Never underestimate the bubble blowing abilities of TPTB.
Amazing how far they can keep kicking that poor old dented can........ it defies all natural laws
Yellen :
Witness meMarket distortion ad infinitum. Government gets money for free. Private business ventures have to pay hefty premiums to banks. This leads to more governments and industrial activity developing abroad! Bright future!
Here we go again
-
I guess Socrates was wrong Marty. Now what?
"I guess Socrates was wrong Marty."
Armstrong didn't say the FED would raise the rate today. He just thinks they will by the end of the year. There are a few more meetings to go till 2016.
Geez....I'm soooo surprised.
The FED is backed so far into a corner they can not increase the interest rate or unwind their balance sheet without destroying the world economy....or maybe their masters at giant squid havent squeezed enough blood from the stone yet.
This will only make the bubble bursting bigger.
We own $2T of USTs from all the QE we did.
Hey, don't bonds go down in value if interest rates rise?
Uh oh. Better not raise them rates.
Feeling QuEasy, just ZIRPed all over.
No worries, they are immediately starting up rumors of them raising rates (for real this time) at the next meeting.
Even old 911 Larry had enough balls to pull it.
Can't wait till the next "most important FED meeting" to start being prepared for.
pods
Oh, they'll get 'em next time, pods. For sure. Just you wait and see!
I can't want to see how they justify their NEXT failure to launch when the global downturn has 3 more months under it's belt and the data is looking decidedly grim. Then wait for the slow walking-back of any rate increases and more talk about "further easing".
I've never seen the Fed be SO late that they're actually early for the next cycle.
"We figured that since we are going to have to cut them next meeting that we'd leave then alone this time."
pods
We Need Moar Israeli Art Students...
Everything is so awesome, but just not awesome enough.
"You cant taper a ponzi scheme" - Mitch Feierstein
Figures...Wall Street First, Main Street last...but what else should we expect...the FED is Wall Streets Momma...
Why did anyone think they would raise rates?
It's Lucy with the football.
Fiorina's delivery was impressive:
http://tinyurl.com/nqjcad2
"Why did anyone think they would raise rates?"
Exactly, how would raising rates benefit the banking system?
I can't answer that question.
~~~~~~~~~~
How would raising rates damage the banking system?
Oh, let me count the ways!!!
1. Higher mortgage rates, less loan origination fees!
2. Surge, but then collapse in refinance revenue!
3. Adjustables go up on people barely making ends meet now..late payments increase, as well as defaults.
4. The US Gov may run into trouble with continued further expansion of the welfare state...Medicare, Social Security and all the rest of the welfare programs won't grow or may be cut back...yikes!...how will we pay for all that Chinese shit?
I bet this list could reach a 100 if you all contributed...again, any wonder they didn't raise rates...and yes Dorthy, they CAN NEVER RAISE RATES...the market will force it somehow, and no one will have seen it coming and they will be powerless to stop it.
I was wrong. Expected the .25 ( one and only) and a metals smash.
As it turns out Fed feared shitshow globally with an increase. There will never be a good time.
Metals got a pop, and now I'll look for the coming beat down.
Now, back to our regular programming.....
GLTA
So savers and pensioners continue to get shafted.
We effectively earn negative interest on our money due to inflation. And I'll be damned if I'll ever put a dime into the ongoing Wall Street casino.
Savers and pensioners have done extremely well under ZIRP. And there are a plethora of reasonable quality businesses that you can invest your money in without being the subject of the "Wall Street Casino". Whatever that might be.
Name some....
I mean with,,, you know,,, real returns.
politicans Inc.
United States Corp.
Now you're just trying to steal MDB's thunder
But but I was just trying to irk out a modest income from my life savings...
This is bullshit. Complete bullshit. Bullshit bullshit bullshit.
ZIRP to infinityyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. Maye October, WAIT. Maybe December, WAIT. Do it in election year, WAIT. QE infinityyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.
Trump missed a golden opportunity on illegal immigration...
Rubbyio mentioned deporting criminal illegals...Trump should have ran with that and asked "are any of you against IMMEDIATE deportation of criminal illegal alians clogging up our jails and creating chaos in our neighborhoods?".
I doubt anyone would have raised thier hands...YET, cough, Jeb Bush, has NEVER pushed for the deportation of illegal criminals in Florida..nor has anyone else here that was in a position of power to actually do it...
Trump could have finished with:
"That is the difference between me (Trump) and them...they're all for it, but have been PROVEN incapable/unwilling to actually do it..NOT ME...I will immediately PUSH HARD to deport every last criminal alien!".
That would have left ONE BIG, FUCKEN, SMOKIN HOLE, ON THAT STAGE!
Jeb's main platform is 1) his brother's iraq war is a success and 2) he wants moar war. He looks as lethargic on stage and in interviews as McConnell and Boner who both have done zero for Republicans as Barry steps right over them. I agree with Newt Gingrich the Republican Party has gone down the crapper. It no longer represents its traditional voter base.
Q: Was it a good idea to go into Afghan and Iraq?
Jeb Bush's answer:
Paraphrasing..."the people wanted retaliation; and my brother rightfully provided it".
What a fucken moron...vengeance as a strategy...nice!
Then they attacked Carson for telling G. Bush to use his brain and not his Bronze to deal with the event...Like either Bush has a clear thinking brain...THEY'RE BOTH ADMITTED ILLEGAL DRUG USERS...LOL...
Carson wasn't saying we should sit down and talk to the terrorists..but that we should outsmart them at thier own game..there are a lot of religious nutjobs in that region..willing to kill their own kind in the name of their flavor of religion..we should have armed all sides and kept them busy killing each other...still a good idea today.
PS> Remember the Iran, Iraq war...1980 to 1988...they spent 8 years killing each other over what? They didn't even fucken know...lol!
...and they say Reagan was senile...Brilliant Jerry, Brilliant..
I honestly and whole heartedly can not believe that they did not raise the rate. This is so far beyond a shit show. In my head I was thinking all moring..."They have to raise it a little" Just to follow through with what they have been saying...Economic recovery...Blah blah blah. Here is the FUCKING ARTICLE.... LOOK. FROM 2012..
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/12/fed-wont-raise-rates-until-...
And stocks unchanged
Prepare for the crash folks...
Fed has no clue what to do. Look out below.
I cannot wait, positioned for it with my fingers crossed. This 'market' is so far from reality it is a complete joke and total mess...
Jim Rickards right on the money again
so what did he say?
Hahaha!!!
Told Ya!
Fed CAN'T Raise Rates!!!
Where's headbanger?
He broke his neck in reaction to no rate hike!
They mostly come out at night. Mostly.
Game Ova... Game Ova...
BWAHAHAHAAHHAHAHA
Bock, Bock, Bock said the chicken
Wake me up when we have a new Money.
Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasp!
Fuck You bernanke and Yellen, Fuck you
I upvoted you, just on principle.
Upvoting those who say "fuck you" to a current or former Fed chair is a ZH mandate.
doesn't matter...they're going to put it through during an election year, when the obvious winner is the Party not in power
OLD MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL-TRANSITION TRICK: LET LOOSE THE SHIT SO THE 99% WILL 'TAKE HEART' AND KNOW THE NEW GUY WILL DO BETTER.
IT FUCKING WORKS EVERYTIME IT WAS USED.
54? They will at least go until the 56-game hitting streak is broken.
get more cans of Spam...NOW????
Have you seen the price of Spam lately? Cheaper to buy ground turkey.
But does ground turkey last forever?
PUSSYS!!!
Yay! Extend and pretend some more! MOAR QE, baby!
Yeah, Yellen loves to extend her monetary dildo. The real question is, Who are the insertees?!
Everyone that uses or gets paid in fiat.
Next comes QE-4 ... "Super-QE - with more electrolytes ..."
Its Got Electrolytes
The kike has decided!
Actually, I decided back in March of 2008, but it took the FED seven years to figure it out because they don't take a longitudinal view, and are short-termist non-thinkers that simply react to short-term problems without thinking long term. Ask the BIS they will verify.
I'm just pleased people who really know what they're doing are still re-inflating bank asset prices ... wait ... that is what's happening, right?
I think we're being punished for something...
zirp sayeth the raven
zirp forevermore
I think this calls for something more severe, Masque of the Red Death perhaps.
Well I thought they were going to raise rates. i was wrong. oh well, BTFD, enjoy life and take the blue pill. Baal wins again. Maybe December we get justice. until then enjoy the show.
Why on Earth would you think that? Here is a pro-tip: If the media for an extended period says things are awesome, then things are not awesome. The news goes negative only for big events and only for a few cycles at most, then it is on the the next negative story and the last is forgotten. If America spontaneously incinerated, it would make the news for a few days at best. But if America burned for weeks and weeks most would never hear about it, the media would entertain us with fiddles.
The Fed can attempt to manage expectations, but ultimately it must set policy to reality, and the reality is that the economy is a big shit pile. You wonder why Socialism and Nationalism are picking up steam? It is because State Capitalism just doesn't cut it under contemporary conditions. You can't bleed people to motivate them to create something new when all people want is to stay at home and stare at screens. The new economy for developed nations is ENTIRELY digital, and State Capitalism does not synchronize with an economy of digital commodities. The old formulas, the old rules, are no longer applicable.
The Fed will not change policy in response to 'good conditions' as the definition of good conditions was applicable only under a economy that properly functioned under State Capitalism. Even if inflation and unemployment were both at 3%, perfect conditions for State Capitalism, the fed STILL couldn't change policy, because any change in policy would WRECK the ENTIRELY digital economy.
The Fed will change policy ONLY in REACTION TO THE NEXT CRISIS, whenever and however that manifests. Do not expect any change in policy no matter how well things go. Only expect a change in policy when the S&P drops to 1500-1000.
One of my indicators I use in the FED world is Goldman. 99% of the time whatever they are stating to the public and their clients you can assure the opposite is happening. To me this is the 1 curveball Goldman played to just keep us in the know on our toes. Also we had the Fed running around saying how good the economy is doing. Either they are full of shit and believe their own lies or kicking the can. I hope China forces their hand very soon in the currency war. I think it is only China left in the world that could really hurt the Fed. Not even the collapse of the Euro could bring down the FED. It must come from China in my opinion or the game goes on far longer than our lifetime.
Say it isn't so............LOL!
bitch ass mother fucking banker pieces of shit...
YOU MOTHER FUCKERS NO U CANT RAISE NO FUCKING RATES CAUSE YOUR TRAPPED LIKE THE FUCKING RATS U R....
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS....
Those 'trapped fucking rats' are making money hand over fist. Just sayin'........
It's easy to make when you're the only one with the power to counterfit.
Amen.
now that's truth!
kaiser is just pissed cuz it ain't him making the money. He'd LOVE to be on thwe winning side but he ain't and thats pissing him off.... hehehehe
dude do u know me???
i havent had to work aka slave for Federal Reserve Notes for over for 20 years and i in the early 50's...
how the fuck do u know what im makin or not makin...
stick to speaking abut somethin u know which based on ur dumb ass comment would appear to be little if anything at all....
stupid mother fucker...
Federal Reserve Notes aint money...
just sayin'...
but ur free to belive their bullshit...
just sayin that 2 smart guy...
It would be foolish of them not to exchange their currency for money, assets, and property.
And the Fed just told the entire world they have no idea what to do.
WHAT A FUCKING SHOCKER I TELL YA.
FOR THE 55TH CONSECUTIVE TIME, THE FUCKING ASSHOLES AT THE FED DECIDED TO KEEP FED FUND RATES AT FUCKING 0.
DONT WORRY THOUGH, EVERYTHING IS STILL AWESOME, UNEMPLOYMENT IS AT 5.1 PERCENT ( AND ITS A REAL NUMBER) AND THE ECONOMY IS FUCKING ROCKING LIKE NEVER BEFORE.
BUT WE CANT FUCKING TAKE A FUCKING .25 RATE HIKE.
TRULY LAUGHABLE
Unemployment is at 5.1% only when you don't count all those no longer looking and those working part time and those who took ANY job to earn something......
REAL unemployment - counted using 1980's metrics - is around 24%, worse than the 1932 peak of the Great Depression. Politicians learned it's easier to simply lie than deal with the fundamental problems like employment, inflation and GDP.
im aware, i was being sarcastic with it being the real number. truth is , its probably closer to 40 percent but what do we know.
sad thing is , there are a ton of sheeple who believe the 5.1 percent number
What Goldman wants, Goldman gets.
Shit just got real.
As I said. The Fed is done. It will do nothing until the political system changes. Game will go on.
Chickenshite corksvckers.
FedFUBARtoHell.
So, Civil War 2 in 2017? Better start training.
Fuck a Shmitah
Well see you in another quarter or two before the next rate hike.. or never...
no hike cause theres no growith and deflation is gonna bring about a strorm.
next american generations wants cheap bangladeshi made clothes, processed food, cheap, tiny houeses, 1 or no cars, free healthcare, free educaion, free mone
Well I'm just shocked and outraged! At least there still is a Santa Claus.
Miffed;-)
Yes, until he gets the boot in 2016 (we hope!). Maybe Hope and Change included a(nother) change to allow unlimited presidential terms again. Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants?
So, you're saying the old grey-headed man yellen will have a job after the fed....
I'm so surprised!
Even if they raised 25 BPS, it's still not raising rates.
I still wonder who that person is that really thought that they would raise rates?
NOT gonna happen, not now and not the next time!
I thought they would. I will admit I was one of the ones saying they will raise rates.
Me too. But maybe we were given the Fed too much leeway for rational and forward thought.
We gave them way to much leeway.
Credibility you say? Full faith and credit of the USA you say? I say FUCK YELLEN.
Stupid fuckers had one opportunity and they blew it. I didn't think they could possibly come off as looking more ridiculous than they have, apparently I was wrong.
correctamundo....
A few of us were wrong Doc. Guess it is not time yet.
We continue to hope and thinnk that TPTB will act in the best interests of the people. We are then stunned at the obvious disconnect between the words and actions of the TPTB.
It is time to recognize that the best interests of the people are not the goal of TPTB.
Maybe after the crash, there will be a revolution that waters the tree of liberty. Unfortunately, I expect a 10x or 20x increase in tyranny.
Well I give my views towards the Fed/.gov until end of October. If nothing changes for the good , there is no reason to even come to ZH. Blue pill for me while enjoying my life on a pile of pm's,cash,land,etc,etc. Why not enjoy life instead of worrying about this bullshit. When it is time for me to revolt or defend..I will. My view will change at end of October should nothing happen to not in my lifetime and I am Gen X. They are proving to me more and more everyday they can not EVER lose.
I think they have ED ... They want to but just can't ... and you know it's only been about 3,500 days since their last 'raise'
I am sure ZIRP will end once unemployment claims reach the lowest level since the end of WW II.
Where's my rainbow pony???!!!
But we were PROMISED rainbow UNICORNS!!!!
Bitcoin $234
What a shocker....
Watch for the Chinese markets to nose dive tonight which will hit US tomorrow.
Nice leaks by the Fed going into todays announcement. Everyone on the planet knew the outcome in advance.
Pussies.
Sooo, gold and silver will go down, right?
What did Trump say about this yesterday? Oh yeah, nothing.
What did Hillary say about this yesterday? Oh yeah, nothing.
What did Obama say about this yesterday? Oh yeah, nothing.
Y'all should love Hillary. She, after all, is the one person who can say she truly fucked a sitting President.
But maybe only once.
I think he may mean in the metaphorical sense.
Miffed;-)
Party On BITCHEZZ!!!!
Sooo, gold and silver will go down, right?
soo is the economy going to be better in the next few months or worse in the next few months.... i think the fed missed their chance for a hike. I Don't see the economy or emerging market economies to pick up steam so they can hike in a few months.
So much for those who say the stock market is not the #1 and only Fed mandate.
The only negative for the Fed's desire to keep juicing the markets is that the overhang of when and if doesn't go away now.
Gonna laugh my ass off when the crash happens and the Fed has nothing... NOTHING!
Dumb shites.
This was probably the feds last best chance to raise rates. They blew it. It's gonna be bad.
You'll be laughing about 20 minutes. Then congress and the president will vote to "save the world" using the fed as its instrument.