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FOMC Stunner: One FOMC Member Forecasts Negative Interest Rates Are Coming To The US
The biggest shocker in today's Fed announcement is not that the Fed did not hike: that was telegraphed far away. It is highlighted on the chart below in red: for the first time ever, one FOMC predicts negative rates in 2015 and 2016. Was it permadove Kocherlakota: probably not, he is out next year...
In retrospect, this too should come as no surprise: over the weekend we asked if "Yellen About To Shock Everyone: Goldman Says The "Fed Should Think About Easing." The lack of a hike was not a shock, but the negative dot, oh yes.
And earlier today we hinted at just this: NIRP:
Q. Can an ON RRP operation have a negative stopout rate?
A. Yes
http://t.co/hRvY3Lx9eG
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 17, 2015
So: instead of QE4 - forget hikes - is the Fed going to shock us with NIRP in the coming months?
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Have fun in that cave; you will need one.
So, whoever indicated negative rates through 2016 on the chart also indicated near 3% rates in 2018, four quarters later. Brilliant. How the shit do they think that’s going to happen when the Fed can’t even muster a 0.25% increase in six months? They’re still selling the story of a sunrise out over the horizon while the hurricane approachs from behind.
Anyone else find it halarious that we can't move 25 bps without crushing the "recovery" yet somehow there is a chance to move 150 bps in 2016? Sure thing...
They weren't talking about a rate hike, they were talking about a chocolate ration increase.
Well this ends any rate hike for 2015. They will never do it over the next 3 months as that is right in the middle of the holiday season when the Feds need a strong consumer spending number.
The earliest would be Q3 of 2016 since it will take a lot to get over the double-digit Obamacare increase scheduled for 2016 and the dismal Christmas season coming up for retailers.
Yellen said the Housing Market was not significant and the the main driver was "consumer spending". Counting the price paid for healthcare, the consumer spending will increase, but not where it counts. We are ready to go Catastrophic; meaning pay the ObamacareLess penalty and take our chances. I'm on disability and cannot afford most of the treatments to help relieve pain and I just found out, one treatment that actually works, i cannot get with my current doctor; so I have to drive 35 miles and I live in a metro area...thanks Obama; make no mistake that you will burn for eternity in hell; and people say God is not fair. I actually hope that Obama would repent and believe; then we would see both hope and change.
No downgrade from S&P, Moodys, fitch ...............?
amazing
They learned their lesson from pissing on the rug 4 years ago.
Except if they tried it now, Obama would probably drone strike their ass...
Janet...I know so many people are giving you a hard time..like saying "fu*k you"...they wanted to go deep down and hurt you..but you stood your ground..you were a brave girl...it was damn if you do and damn if you don't...you chose don't...you avoided financial armageddon..you kicked the can down the road...thanks for standing up for our interest..
Yellen was asked if "negative interest rates were in the FED tool-kit"; her answer was that it was not discussed for this meeting; it is what she did not say that was important...she did not deny it was not part of the "tool-kit".
When asked about FED policy causing wealth gaps; she denied it, yet FED Fishers has a "comprehensive" analysis of that subject which states the FED policy has created a wealth gap. Yellen tried to dismiss studies stating they has too many assumptions (likes hers do not) and tried to point the "audience" to a recent study, which was unnamed and said it was "comprehensive and stated the FED policy did not create this. How do they lie with such straight faces is beyond consciousness.
Just a leaked factoid to see how the muppets react. It is meaningless for the purposes of investing for the small guy. You are in the club, or you ain't. We ain't.
From the excerpt of Sun Tzus, The Art of War:
"In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots, as many heavy chariots, and a hundred thousand mail-clad soldiers, with provisions enough to carry them a thousand LI(2,78 modern mile), the expenditure at home and at front, including entertainment of guests, small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armor, will reach the total of thousand ounces of silver per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men."
Now, if we are to add inflational numbers to silver and humanity(increase in population from the time of Sun Tzu), I am pretty sure the ratio of silver wouldn't be much off to the upside, if at all. Given todays population of 7,3 billion, and the total mined silver of some 43,9 billion ounces makes it some 6,01 ounces per human head. This is the all silver ever mined in human history. I mean, it's not exactly a insane number...6 ounces.
Still, for all of you who do own 1000oz of silver...at some point in history, you could have owned your own armies for that amount!
The most unvalued asset in history.
Dear ZH please change your Twitter Avatar. Its almost as disturbing as the picture of Janet.
"There is going to be a lot of money to be made getting out of this mess." John Tuld (Jeremy Irons)
Margin Call
Rates have been in and out of negative territory for some time since the debt ceiling debate.
http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds
I'm just waiting for the Fed's employees to start commiting suicide with eight shots to the head from a nail gun. Then I'll feel really good about negative interest.
But hey, waiting for a leftist to tell me how "the right can't point to the bad economy!"
Except we can't even raise rates .25% -- that's a fucking weak economy. And pretty much all the other stats hold that as true. The amazing thing is, their spending problem (and Sanders is about make it worse) is contributing to the inability to raise rates, and low rates exacerbate economic inequality.
Fuck me. Bizzaro world in which we live.
Negative interest rate? You mean my mortgage interest rate and my car interest rate and my credit cards interest rates will be reduced?
BRING IT ON, DUDE!!!
Are you in the club? No! BTW - this is what Dr. Jim Willie has already reported; this is "failure to deliver, back door QE via naked US Treasury's". He said it is now a TRILLION per month; so now you know why the PPT is so effective so far. The Shadow Banking System is getting darker all the time and who can stop them? Only an act of God; that is the only way and why should He?
It is theft. Your average Congressman could not begin to understand how this works. The big question is always; how long will it take for it to fall apart? They could give money to their friends or to the public, but it has and will always be the friends.
It could mean you are charged the deposits you put in the bank and you would be able to avoid that if you have a job. Think about it; if you told your employer you want paid in cash; would they? They might say yes, maybe, and cut you a check, but never in Federal Reserve Notes. If you want a priceless picture; tell them you want paid in Sovereign gold and silver coins or bars?
My mattress pays negative interest, but, I can Scrooge McDuck my money anytime I want. Try telling the teller at BOA that you want to swim in the vault and see what happens
"Forecasting NIRP"?? Looks like it actually has already arrived, as of 15:00 EDT (link below). http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-1-month-bond-yield
It is GOD's fault and here is why; see if anyone can see the truth in this, one of several such lists in the New Testimony:
God gave them (people) over to a debased (useless) mind, to do those things which are not fitting; 29 being filled with all unrighteousness, sexual immorality, wickedness, covetousness, maliciousness; full of envy, murder, strife, deceit, evil-mindedness; they are whisperers, 30 backbiters, haters of God, violent, proud, boasters, inventors of evil things, disobedient to parents, 31 undiscerning, untrustworthy, unloving, unforgiving, unmerciful; 32 who, knowing the righteous judgment of God, that those who practice such things are deserving of death, not only do the same but also approve of those who practice them.
Eat, drink, fornicate and be merry for we ALL die.