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Philly Fed Crashes To 31-Month Lows, Blames Stock Market
On the heels of Empire Fed's big plunge, Philly Fed just collapsed. Despite employment and new orders picking up, the headline Philly Fed data crashed from 8.3 to -6.0 (missing expectations of +5.9 by the most in 4 years). This is the lowest print since March 2013 and is blamed on markets "evidence suggests that the responses regarding general activity that were received earlier in the month may have been negatively affected by the volatility in the stock market and international news reports." Must. Keep. Stocks. High.
The Breakdown has some silver linings...
As The Philly Fed notes,
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 8.3 in August to -6.0 this month. This is the first negative reading in the index since February 2014 (see Chart). However, the demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the survey’s current new orders index, showed continued growth: The diffusion index increased from 5.8 to 9.4. Firms reported that shipments also continued to rise. The current shipments index remained positive but fell 2 points, to 14.8.
Firms’ responses suggest some improvement in employment conditions in September despite the reported lull in overall activity. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employees in September (21 percent) was higher than the percentage reporting a decrease (11 percent). The current employment index increased 5 points, its highest reading in five months. Firms also reported, on balance, a modest increase in the workweek similar to August.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Oh, that rate increas is SO on now.
You said that already. You act like you have a beer on the line or something. ;->
I bears repeating, so I repeated it. The Fed waiting so long to raise rates that the next downturn is upon them just as they begin lift-off? Fucking CLASSIC Fed timing. The more bad news I see the higher the odds are the Fed will do exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time. Like now.
Firms’ responses suggest some improvement in employment conditions in September despite the reported lull in overall activity
Emplyment improvement yet were not selling anything ok got it lol, comical really.
31 month lo's with the SPY at 200.30.
we have achieved ludacrious speed.
won't/can't raise rates cuz the spoiled brats at the long only mutual funds & pension funds can't trade from the short-side and the goldman's of the world can't sell anything when markets are going down. bonds & stocks are still ridicuously high. longer we stay on or close to zero, the longer markets will distort, and the harder the pain will be.
Ludicrous speed indeed, and you know what that means.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aNp5cOXz998
"...these go to 11."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xgx4k83zzc
Everyone knows that the wealth effect from a manipulated US stock market is what keeps the faltering US economy alive. Job creation is negligible (except waiters and bartenders) and real unemployment is something like 23% instead of the Fed's fantasy number of 5.1%.
And real inflation in 2014, per the Chapwood Index, was 9.7% instead of official estimate of 0.8%.
Lies do not a strong economy make.
of course, the supreme irony is that it is probably (at least if one is convinced by Stockman, Gavekal et al.) the ZIRP that is causing the prolonged low growth rate by replacing capex with financial debt (aka stock buybacks and LBOs)...
Just another torpedo in the engine room. Do or die baby 2pm.
Maybe in their zeal to produce positive numbers during QE, they tainted their evaluation methodology. This has now come back in the for of useless data.
flyover country on the street observation: main job--orders down 20% m-o-m, second job dramatic decrease in business flow in last two weeks. Last night had someone who works in luxury high end retail who asked if I'd noticed a downturn in business activity. He said it had crashed in the high end.
take cover, it's coming fwiw.
This pig only flies because the hot air they've put in it is lighter than gold.
Do you think the members of the FMOC feast on babies at lunch before they release their decision?