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What The Fed Will Do Today: Gartman's Take

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last Friday, when futures were again in free fall, we issued a "Warning For The Bears", noting that world renowned contrarian indicator Dennis Gartman had turned short the S&P/long bonds and was "very worried in catholic terms:"

NEW RECOMMENDATION: we wish to sell the S&P futures short this morning, fearing that a major top has developed and that the recent consolidation in the stock market is precisely that: a consolidation before the next leg downward.

 

We’ll sell the S&P future short and will buy the December T-note at the same time, with the S&P trading 1933.00 as we write and with the Dec T-note future trading 127 ¼. We’ll risk no more than 1.5% on either position and we look for the consolidation in the S&P to resolve itself sharply lower as discussed at length above.

As expected, Gartman was promptly stopped out on his latest recommendation following a vicious snapback rally in a market ,which as we also warned over the weekend was positioned for the "mother of all a short squeezes".

So with that out of the way, many traders, all of whom are confused ahead of today's Fed rate decision, were eagerly looking for any fadable hints out of Gartman on what the Fed will not do today.

We now have the answer, unfortunately it will not provide much certainty ahead of what is "the most anticipated Fed decision" in a trader generation.

So then, what do we think the Fed shall do? We’ve not the faintest idea and we openly admit that fact. What the Fed will do and what the Fed should do are two wholly separate issues, for we believe strongly that the Fed should have begun to process of “normalizing” rates two years ago and has erred in not having done so, but at this point perhaps it is prudent to wait one or two or even three more months “just to be sure.”

 

The question is, were we voters on the FOMC what would we do? And the answer is, we’d probably vote to hold rates steady but we’d use the clearest and more certain language available to us to assure everyone that rates almost certainly will move higher before the year’s end. Further, we’d make certain that everyone in the markets knows that we needn’t call a press conference to make a change in the o/n funding rate and that it can… and almost certainly will… come as a surprise when the data has forced us to act.

So, hints of a rate hike then? Keep an eye on Fed Fund futures over the next few hours for the answer.

 

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Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:27 | 6559904 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

If TPTB had the desire to do the right thing for the country, they would have done it already.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:32 | 6559926 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

No rate hike today, or ever, but always one "being considered next time".  You heard it here first.

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:42 | 6559980 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Or rate hike and panic buying (stocks) and massive slamming (PMs)

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:07 | 6560065 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

So based on Gartman's take, its either a rate hike OR a rate cut (shocker).

But regardless, the markets will shoot UP.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:40 | 6560282 J S Bach
J S Bach's picture

"What do we think the Fed shall do? We’ve not the faintest idea and we openly admit that fact."

 

Doesn't this just fry you?!  This supposed entity of the "people" called the Fed is nothing more than a secret cabal of private bankster crooks who manipulate and steal at will -- and the attitude in government and media toward them is complete and utter subservience rather than a righteous outrage!  Lickspittles like Gartman are almost more detestable than the perpetrators themselves.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:44 | 6559984 Zirpedge
Zirpedge's picture

Gartman done it again, rates rise today. Save yourself and buy stocks!

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:34 | 6559942 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Who's defining "right"?

TPTB have had control for longer than many of us have been alive.

Look at the degradation of our God-given liberties, this should be answer enough for many to wake up.

As long as the bankers have control, the pols will fall in lock step.

We see it played out every day.

Here we sit anxiously awaiting a decision from an unconstitutional entity and not one among us will do anything to set things right.

The pols willingly quibble over our decaying corpse and we plug our noses to staunch the smell...

DaddyO

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:44 | 6559986 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Hey, DaddyO, speakish for thyselfish, please. If not doing "anything to set things right" includes buying silver bars and pre-64 coins, purchasing rural acreage, screwing the local authorities by not getting permits for "structures", growing vegetables on your own land and growing, curing and smoking your own tobacco, and not paying federal or state income taxes for the past 15 years then I've done NOTHING.

The rest of you who continue to suck on whatever public or private jobs tit can keep sucking unitl it's gone.

The Fed should raise rates today. Get it over with, then continue raising every meeting for two years until rates are "normalized."

Yeah, that will surely fix everything.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:59 | 6560037 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Don't hurt yourself jumping to conclusions and patting yourself on the back there, Skippy...

Is your self confession wise in this day of warrantless, electronic surveillance?

DaddyO

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:45 | 6560177 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

No income, no income tax, right? 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:44 | 6559981 junction
junction's picture

For an example of how ZIRP works, look at Altice, the company that just bought Cablevision.  One news article has the following quote: "That said, Altice has an impressive record of cost reduction, and we expect it will be much more aggressive than the Dolan family in cutting expenses, including reducing employee count," he wrote in a note.  So, as Altice sheds employees at the firms it acquires with borrowed money, its CEO, Patrick Drahi, loads those firms with debt.  Drahi is now worth $15 billion, with most of his wealth acquired in the past 8 years, as he acquires (with the help of the silent partners he fronts for) telcos with borrowed money.  Then Drahi fires as many of the telcos employees as he can, in the name of efficiency. Let's see how many Cablevision employees he fires in the next six months. 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:02 | 6560049 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

The 'we' must be him and his wife. What an annoying, pompous fuck. You'd figure being wrong on every single trade would shed him of that but not yet. 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:15 | 6560094 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

gartman has gone out on a limb.  he claims the fed will either raise rates or they won't.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:55 | 6560208 Fed-up with bei...
Fed-up with being Sick and Tired's picture

HA!  It is a 51/51 proposition, as we used to say.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:29 | 6559905 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Told you so

 

Could not even make up his mind to flip the coin

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:46 | 6559965 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I hate when this guy goes all mushy and indecisive.  I can't trade against indecisive.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:28 | 6559912 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

No rate hike.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:36 | 6559956 Bro of the Sorr...
Bro of the Sorrowful Figure's picture

i bet that cocksucker already knows exactly what will happen and has already positioned himself to profit handsomely 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:39 | 6559970 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Don't kid yourself.  Dennis Gartman is not in "The Club".

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:30 | 6559917 ABB
ABB's picture

Desicions, Decisions.

I bet if nothing would have been done since the crisis, things would have been better than this.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:37 | 6559960 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

thing is, "they" don't want things better. "they" want things worse.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:32 | 6559930 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

he forgot the 11th commandment

thou shalt not short a rigged market

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:32 | 6559935 brada1013567
brada1013567's picture

We’ve not the faintest idea and we openly admit that fact. We never have, we are complete frauds. You have been foolish to spend your hard earned money on our newsletter!

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:36 | 6559952 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

Did I say that or was I just thinking that?  Shit!

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:33 | 6559939 Daize
Daize's picture

The bitch will hike it! Shemitah is just begining!

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:37 | 6559962 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

Shemitah is almost over...

 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:38 | 6559967 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

if the cunt hikes be ready to BTFD because any d will be transitory

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:33 | 6559941 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Whatever he says, do the opposite.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:38 | 6559964 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Hard to do the opposite of "not the faintest idea".

Gatrman has finally admitted what everyone else has known for years.

If this isn't the harbinger of the end then I don't know what is.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:36 | 6559954 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

<-- janet drinks your milkshake

<-- there will be MOAR

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:37 | 6559961 FPearl602
FPearl602's picture

Dennis got wasted at Woodstock so how can he be a bad guy? Poor guy never recovered from that wonky tab of Microdot he took.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:38 | 6559966 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Gartmans balls on chin moment..

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:38 | 6559968 Not if_ But When
Not if_ But When's picture

Remember, I'm becoming a financial advisor and launching my namtraG fund if you want to get in on the bottom floor.

Paperwork almost complete.  I project astonishing returns based on what gartman has done in just the past few days.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:25 | 6560270 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

If your fund has the inverse performance of the Horizons AlphaPro Gartman ETF you will do well.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:41 | 6559973 ChartRoom
ChartRoom's picture

we’d probably vote to hold rates steady but we’d use the clearest and more certain language available to us to assure everyone that rates almost certainly will move higher before the year’s end

Wow. He even finds a way to project his wishy-washiness onto hypothetical Fed board members.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:44 | 6559985 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

So the FED is gonna raise rates Gartman just said it: "... but at this point perhaps it is prudent to wait one or two or even three more months “just to be sure.”"

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:50 | 6560000 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

"WE"

"US"

Gartman has such a high opinion of himself he thinks he's a plurality. Legends in his own minds.

Anyone who writes anything for a living and uses the royal, "we," when referring to oneself, should do "us" a big favor and shoot themselves in a hall of mirrors for full effect.

We don't like Gartmen, whoever they are.

They haven't seen their collective dicks in decades. Fat shits.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 12:20 | 6560521 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

We VS Us.

A common trait among people with his psychological afflictions.

Multiple personalities is just the beginning, with him.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:53 | 6560012 JamaicaJim
JamaicaJim's picture

I had a fellow broker back in the day..a dog bone junk bond trader, who every time he said buy, we all sold, and vice versa...

Fartman reminds me of this guy.....damn near always wrong....

good for a chortle or two...then...go the other way...whatever he says....

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 09:54 | 6560019 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

"We think this, but, on the other hand possibly this, and........"

Thank God Gartman only has two hands, otherwise we'd have to hear about the fuzzy picture he holds in every one. 

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:00 | 6560033 Pantalone
Pantalone's picture

Gartmanvane

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:01 | 6560045 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

They will hike rates to crush the oil countries and force them to submit to the might of the USA.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:03 | 6560051 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Ok he says they should, but they won't.

That means they shouldn't and they will.

Got it.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:04 | 6560054 Roanman
Roanman's picture

That there is a profound mouthful of mush and damn near world class double talk.

In one short paragraph, Gartman demonstrates how it is that he has come to be The King of Whipsaw.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:07 | 6560067 brushhog
brushhog's picture

Their not hiking rates. Give me a break.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:08 | 6560070 Phoenix901210
Phoenix901210's picture

Gartman: 'The question is, were we voters on the FOMC what would we do? And the answer is, we’d probably vote to hold rates steady ..'

I can't believe they're going to hike rates. Remember what happened the last time they said they were going to?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:09 | 6560076 CHoward
CHoward's picture

"...but at this point perhaps it is prudent to wait one or two or even three more months “just to be sure.”

 

What - wait for the 2nd coming of Christ?  Would that be more prudent?

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:14 | 6560089 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

That settles it - one rate hike coming up!

I suspect that's what it will be anyway.  They have no reason to wait, the data isn't going to get any better.  If they bump to .25 and maybe later to .5 and the economy continues to slow, the Fed Funds rate isn't the reason, and it's still very accommodative.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:27 | 6560132 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

I agree. They'll do a 0.25 drop into the bucket of sloshing fiat and be very, very cautious about additional hikes in the future. Chew slowly, eat slowly, let it all digest. Stawks will not react.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:21 | 6560117 hawaiianPunch
hawaiianPunch's picture

The end of QE and now interest rate increases is nothing but smoke and mirrors. The Fed has decided to tell the public it is tightening, but secretly continue to do QE. When interest rates rise and stocks keep going up and bonds hold steady, the Fed will look like heroes. It's all lies. The labor stats, the CPI, the end of QE, the rise in interest rates... all lies. They're justifying this facade due to national security... after all, the end game has come, and the alternative is martial law via stock/bond/dollar crash or hyper-inflation. Don't believe anything the Fed, the government, or the media is telling you. We're under a Communist/Nazi regime now - they've accomplished the coup in plain sight without using the millitary. The U.S. is the new USSR (United States of the Socialist Regime).

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:32 | 6560145 Banker Buster
Banker Buster's picture

He said he wasn't sure what they would do, but he left a clue in there.  He said if he were the fed he would "but at this point perhaps it is prudent to wait one or two or even three more months"  and "vote to keep rates steady"

Given this evidence alone, the fed will raise rates today.

 

thanks Gartman and tell your brother Krugman to suck it, he's a worthless idiot and the Japanese are more ignorant for having listened to you.

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:35 | 6560155 HardHatBanker
HardHatBanker's picture

He is long of the rate hike in stupid terms

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:47 | 6560182 Fed-up with bei...
Fed-up with being Sick and Tired's picture

OK, MY LOL comment of the day!   That was GOOD!

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 10:54 | 6560204 withglee
withglee's picture

The question is, were we voters on the FOMC what would we do? And the answer is, we’d probably vote to hold rates steady but we’d use the clearest and more certain language available to us to assure everyone that rates almost certainly will move higher before the year’s end.

If I was a voter on the FOMC I would vote for proper management of the MOE process itself.

That means:

  1. Monitor DEFAULTs
  2. Collect INTEREST exactly equally DEFAULTs

This guarantees zero INFLATION by the relation: INFLATION = DEFAULT - INTEREST = zero

Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:02 | 6560228 bonin006
bonin006's picture

Can anyone confirm if Zacks is getting advice from Gartman, or did they hire him?

More DRYS News
Thu, 09/17/2015 - 11:35 | 6560294 Boubou
Boubou's picture

Look, nothing in finance and governmennt generally can be predicted - we know that.

What we do know is that things may rise, fall or remain where they are. But we don't know when.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!