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Global Stocks, EM FX Extend Losses Despite China Saying "No Collapse Is Nigh"
US equity futures have retraced the late-day ramp from Friday with Dow down around 65pts. Asia is opening weaker (NKY -900 from Thursday highs) with EM FX appearing not to get the "but we didn't hike" message from The Fed with MYR the worst hit for now (after a few days of strength). EM outflows accelerated according to Morgan Stanley, down 6% AUM in 12 weeks. PBOC devalued the Yuan fix by 0.11% (the most in 2 weeks). While Fed uncertainty and fears about China have caused global derisking, PBOC chief Fan says "the economy is stable," and China's Beige Book suggests 'everything is awesome', as the survey summarizes, "perceptions of China may be more thoroughly divorced from facts on the ground than at any time in our nearly five years of surveying the economy." If that's the case, then why is Janet in panic mode?
Dow futures have retraced Friday's late-day ramp...
And Nikkei 225 is down 900 points from Thursday's peak BoJ manipulation highs...
EM FX continues to weaken..
- *MALAYSIA RINGGIT EXTENDS DROP, NOW DOWN 0.8% TO 4.2397/DOLLAR
- Baht declines 0.2% to 35.710 per dollar, set to snap two-day rally
EM equity fund outflows of $2.2b for week ended Sept. 16 mainly driven by Asia funds ($1.8b), compares with avg $6.5b outflow in last 4 weeks, Morgan Stanley analysts Jonathan Garner and Pankaj Mataney write in Sept. 18 note.
- Cumulative 12-week outflow reaches US$40.2b, or 5.6% of assets under management
- Taiwan, India, Korea had largest inflows
- Philippines had biggest weekly outflow since Oct. 2013
New Zealand Consumer Confidence tumbled to 3 year lows...
* * *
With China open, the propaganda ramps up.. It appears it is time for some central banker credibility to be lost...
China’s economy isn’t as weak as it may look, according to a private survey that says it’s a myth that the nation’s slowdown is intensifying.
“No collapse is nigh” in the aftermath of the stock market plunge and currency devaluation, according to the third-quarter China Beige Book, published by New York-based CBB International and modeled on the survey compiled by the Federal Reserve on the U.S. economy. Capital expenditure rebounded slightly in the period and the services sector showed strength, the report said.
“Perceptions of China may be more thoroughly divorced from facts on the ground than at any time in our nearly five years of surveying the economy,” CBB President Leland Miller wrote in the report.
And then The PBOC put everyone straight...
- *PBOC DEPUTY GOVERNOR SAYS CHINA ECONOMY IS STABLE: NEWS
Chinese central bank Deputy Governor Fan Yifei said the country’s economic structure continues to improve and trade surplus remains, providing solid foundation for stable yuan and financial market, Financial News reports, citing Fan’s comments at a forum Sept. 19.
- Fan called for strengthening currency swaps with Asean countries and pushing forward currency trade with these countries, including direct trading
So why did Janet blink then?
Margin debt declined...
- *SHANGHAI MARGIN DEBT BALANCE FALLS FIRST TIME IN THREE DAYS
And Chinese stocks open lower...
- *FTSE CHINA A50 INDEX FUTURES FALL 0.7% IN SINGAPORE
- *CHINA'S CSI 300 STOCK-INDEX FUTURES FALL 1% TO 3,107.4
- *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS 1.1% AT OPEN
- *HANG SENG CHINA ENTERPRISES INDEX FALLS 2.06%
The PBOC weakened the fix by the most in 2 weeks
- *CHINA SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT 6.3676 AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR
- *CHINA WEAKENS ONSHORE YUAN FIXING BY 0.11% TO 6.3676/USD
Finally, on a sidenote, China Mobile reported its additional subscriber base grew at the slowest in 2015...
- *CHINA MOBILE ADDS 1.37MLN CUSTOMERS IN AUG.
But but but Tim Cook told Cramer everything was awesome?
Charts: Bloomberg
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We shall see Dow -73 as I type
Diminishing effect of FED bubble blowing, before they would rip the face off of any short with QE and dovish talk... now their rally lasted about 30 seconds.
Comrades! Do-Not-Panic!
Buy stawks ;-)
Ben used to scratch his beard when he got nervous, whats Janet gonna scratch...don't answer that.
Her beard
booboo, I may never get a boner again
Just WHERE did all of the "you are missing all of the gains / one is a fool to not be in the market" people go, anyway?
I suppose those same people will be coming out of the woodwork shortly saying "I knew it was a bubble all along......", just like I read A LOT of commentary similar to that AFTER the housing bubble popped.
There is no MONEY ON THE SIDELINE?! (MSNBC collective gasp!)
And no, (to boo boo's point) I'm not going to scratch Mr.Yellen's private parts for any amount of money ;-)
I think the Chinese equity markets should be renamed, the Paranormal Indexes.
Those ghost algos are providing a lot of liquidity though. lol
Even if you set your S/L way out of the money, good luck getting a fill before next Tuesday.
"Why is Janet in panic mode?"
Who says she's in panic mode - I think she's quite comfortable with what she's doing. I seriously doubt anyone in her inner circle tells her anything negative. Steak anyone?
The words "Janet Yellen" and "her inner circle' are pretty off-putting. I think I'll skip dinner.
Thanks (not) for the visual Tim. Given the timezone I'm in, I've got the whole day ahead of me to be put off food now.
Janet is fine. No matter what happens she will have more wealth than she can use.
So you're telling me we're in a bear market?
Australia down 2.6 per cent that is a very bad day for that market
I think aud/usd is going to .60
I didn't feel that way until recently.
I think oil WTI is going into the 20's.
I think there's going to be "fear pulse" in the $usdx, based on the weekly charts.
Then a rapid selloff, as the Fed. expands it's balance sheet.
The defining factor, will be when the markets dictate rates as investors come to terms with the fact that Central Banks aren't omnipotent.
"Get out there and sell....sell"
I want to see the 1.37 million broken down by age. That number is so small in China it's population growth. First phones for the kiddies?
The numbers from China Mobile don't mean much without the numbers form China Unicom and China Telecom.
I read that as China Unicorn...
Can't wait for qe4. Free silvarados for the Mexican if he starts a landscaping biz. And sells drugs for the . Gov sub contractors
Bankers are crooks, war criminals and child molesters.
And Neville Chamberlain just stated "Peace in our time!".
Some China watchers beg to differ! It is becoming clear China in in big trouble similar to what America faced in 1929 following a period of rapid growth and credit expansion. To say the economy of China is shaky understates the situation. The kind of growth we have witnessed in China during the last several decades has been extraordinary and has been driven by several "one time factors" that may be played out.
To those who doubt just how massive the problems are they only need look to the newly constructed city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia. Most of the new town buildings are empty or unfinished. Below is the latest in a series of articles concerning China's deteriorating economic situation.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/09/china-economic-update.html
Oh my,
China’s economy isn’t as weak as it may look, according to a private survey that says it’s a myth that the nation’s slowdown is intensifying.
“No collapse is nigh” in the aftermath of the stock market plunge and currency devaluation, according to the third-quarter China Beige B
“Perceptions of China may be more thoroughly divorced from facts on the ground than at any time in our nearly five years of surveying the economy,” CBB President Leland Miller wrote in the report.
Yes, indeed. It is much worse Mr Miller. If you take your talking points from Bloomberg or whatever, everything in reality can be made myth. However, if one looks at the data (by the way there is much of it improperly analyzed because your news outlets and your company's internal analysts are lazy buggers.
Talk your book, but prudent people will know that this is not good and the economy is precarious.
Type in Google:
1$ = Indonesian Rupiah (ENTER)
1$ = Vietnam Dong (ENTER)
The first one, my country currency. The second, my country neighbour currency. So? IF China DEVALUE its currency? We HAVE to do the same!!
Otherwise? Our Current Account would bleeds uncontrollable!! That why they called it FX war. Oh well..
Woody has predicted exact Stock Market reversal dates for over 1300 SPX points - IN JUST THE 9 MONTHS ALONE! If you are serious about making money, then you need to know when the Markets are going to reverese, weeks before they turn! There is nobody better than Woody Dorse. Here is the link for tow black holes coming, he aready gave dates for August big drop and now another two are coming.
Black Hole
Read all of the detailed articles about how corrupt and inefficient this centrally planned "Red Capitalism" is as I have, how they have so rapidly increased their debt at rates never before seen in history via that corrupt system's central planning and the huge malinvestments in make-work programs after the 2008 crash, like ghost cities, to keep the proles from revolting, and how their economic data is even less credible than the garbage generated in the US, and you'll realize that China has only begun experiencing major economic problems.