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Martin Armstrong Warns "Hell Is About To Break Loose"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

Yellen has inherited a complete nightmare. 

yellen-Janet

 

Thursday’s decision to delay yet again the long-awaited liftoff from zero interest rates is illustrating that the world economy is totally screwed.

There is a lot of speculation about why the Fed seems so reluctant to “normalize monetary policy”. There are of course the typical domestic issues that there is low inflation, weak wage gains in the face of strong job growth, a hike will increase the Federal deficit and then there is the argument that corporations that now have $12.5 trillion in debt. All that is nice, but with corporate debt, our clients are locking in long-term at these levels, not funding anything short-term. Those clients who have listened are preparing for what is to come unlike government which has been forced to shorten the average duration of their debts blind to what happens when rates rise, which will be set in motion by the markets – not Yellen.

The Fed is really caught between a rock and a very dark place. Yes, they have the IMF and the world pleading with them not to raise rates for it will hurt other debtors who borrowed excessively using dollars to save money.
 
The Fed is also caught between domestic policy objectives that dictate they MUST raise rates of they will bankrupt countless pension funds and international where emerging markets will go into default because commodities have collapsed and they have no way of paying off this debt that has risen to about 50% of the US national debt.
 
By avoiding the normalization of interest rates (hikes), the Fed has encouraged government to spend far more than they realize because money is cheap. This will eventually light the fire under the economy helping to fuel the Sovereign Debt Crisis. There appears to be no hope for the Fed and they will be forced to raise rates only when they see asset inflation in equities. Then they will have no choice.
 
This is the worst possible mess and the longer they have waited to normalize interest rates, the worst the total crisis is becoming for they will have zero control over the economy and once that is seen, holy Hell will break loose.
 

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Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:04 | 6571569 38BWD22
38BWD22's picture

 

 

I have not read nor studied Martin Armstrong long enough to judge how good his predictions are.  Although I do know a guy who says M.A.'s predictions are spot-on.

But, Armstrong has an impressive knowledge of financial history.

He is worth reading.

And I agree with him that the FED should have raised rates.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:15 | 6571604 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Mr Armstrong seems to be working under the assumption that the fed had some other intention than this.

We did not get here by chance. The progress to this point has been steady and tightly controlled going back a very long time.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:19 | 6571613 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

The Fed's unannounced mandate is to whitewash inept fiscal policy with equally inept monetary policy until there is no escape. 

 

Mission accomplished.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:41 | 6571683 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

Rates are going NEGATIVE

BAIL-IN's BITCHEZZZZZZZZZZ

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:31 | 6571853 wendigo
wendigo's picture

And your precious bitcoins won't save you. Much like Tor, I suspect they were created by the NSA as a honey trap. You can believe whatever you want. 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:30 | 6572134 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

... And your precious ignorance is certainly not going to save you that's for sure  ...

Bitcoin is gonna smash it soon and you ignorant clowns will be permanently left on the wrong side of the BTC decimal point ... So don't go crying to your mommy when you actually realise - far too late - when this system becomes the dominant factor in the global economy.. And you missed the fucking boat ....

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:41 | 6572200 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

A mere medium of exchange with a volitile price is not something I'd be interested in...ever. Fiat is fine as a short term hold to pay the bills month to month but I prefer my store of value to be something yellowish.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:53 | 6572230 Money Counterfeiter
Money Counterfeiter's picture

Milton Freidman realized from the Great Depression when prices declined 40% the best time to shovel cash at the bankers was after a collapse.  Bernanke read the book and followed it like a road map. 

And it worked, what is the inflation rate?  How much money has been shoveled into the casino?

Yellen is like a second lieutenant who was sent to the WWI battle of the Somme.  Shell shocked, scared shitless.  Knows the end is near, trying to keep up appearances until the end.

Greenspan and Bernanke are #2 and #1  responsible for this debacle.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:04 | 6572272 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

You have to literally be Charlie Brown and believe Lucy wont pull the ball back this time to also believe the FED will raise rates.  They have said they will do it so many times now and every time pulling back again, and again, and again, and...

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:40 | 6572361 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

 

The Fed threatens a rate increase because it knows it is necessary and expects the “market” to adjust before the increase is executed so the shock will be dampened.

Just one problem: ‘The Yellow Peril’ (and I don’t mean gold).

 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 19:50 | 6572718 philipat
philipat's picture

2015.75 only has a little over a week to run Martin....

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 21:18 | 6573018 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

The Fed doesn't control "rates" they control the fed funds rate. Rates are controlled by the market, but the Fed likes to project the impression that someone is in charge of rates. As a result they pretend that they control rates by trying to get in front of trends. The current trend is flat to down (down if the market continues its decline). THAT is why they won't raise rates, it would show how they are NOT in control.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 09:36 | 6574162 mtl4
mtl4's picture

Saw that the other day, absolutely worth watching.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 12:57 | 6575066 SDShack
SDShack's picture

LOL - you actually believe there is still a true bond market! The Fed controls about 1/3 of the treasury market, and with it's other central bank lackies (Belgium anyone) probably has closer to the magical 51% control. This has completely destroyed the bond market. The Fed and ECB have learned from all these bubbles, especially the Euro crisis that the Bond Viginlantez have to be neutralized at all costs, and that is what they have been doing since 2008. The goal of the CB's is to perpetuate the Ponzi, and the only way they do that is to control the bond market, AND have a printing press. It's a huge financial circle jerk that has been engineered by the banks for the banks to redistribute all wealth to the elites. We are in the Financial Matrix. There is no spoon (market).

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:50 | 6572229 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Wrong. I will be getting paid for doing shit. The question is what do you think I will take in exchange? Gold,beer,food,fuel,soap or some other thing with a real value best be in your wallet.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:54 | 6572397 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

I am seriously looking at Bitgold instead.  Not the same batch of purple haired hacker, computer coders....I just have not made up my mind yet.

Hard to judge anyone's integrity these days. The lure of embezzlement and fraud are huge.

 

Comes down to trust does it not?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 21:35 | 6573084 Bro of the Sorr...
Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:55 | 6572239 bitterwolf
bitterwolf's picture

Trial balloon floated by elite....i.e. no above board author/inventor identified.....controlled experiment of future of global currency....

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:06 | 6572279 hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

Whatver.  Interest rates are already negative given the real rate of inflation vs. the publicised rate.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 07:36 | 6573877 auntiesocial
auntiesocial's picture

look at my previous posts. it is not rocket science. the little ol Jewish lady that looks like she could be baking cookies was purposely put into place to take the fall. how is the weather in Bora Bora, Bernie?

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 13:32 | 6575195 Down to Earth T...
Down to Earth Thinking's picture

he is way ahead of the curve and has been for many years because he found out the hard way just how corrupted and phony this system of fractional reserve banking and creation of money as debt actually is. You have to go back 20 years to even begin to grasp his perpsective. Unfortunetly the game has changed now because all of his infromation has proven to be true and we are in a post destructive phase now. He is nit under thweasumption you seem to think he is at all. But as many as 6 steps ahead in the play out phase or come to fruition phase ? 

All we are seeing now is the end game showing itself in various forms. Who could known, Hey ? well actually a lot of people ?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:16 | 6571608 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Come now, that was Obama's line, we tried this before and it did'nt end well for the shrinking middle class.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:23 | 6571998 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Yes, the hundreds of PhD's and masters degrees at the FED didn't realize they were creating a liquidity trap, something every 2nd year economics student is intimately familiar with.

Sure, the FED "made a mistake"

My Ass they did, they're not incompetent, they're corrupt, just like Obama isn't incompetent, he's damn good at his job of destroying the US.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:42 | 6572045 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

I take it you do honest work for a living.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:57 | 6572247 Money Counterfeiter
Money Counterfeiter's picture

The PhDs knew what was going on but when you get paid $80,000 per year to work 20 hours a week with full benefits, ample vacation time off you don’t say shit.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 08:36 | 6573995 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

Oh I'll bet they are paid far more than $80k annually for 20 hours of 'work'. That's probably a speaking fee for one of these PhD'd asshats occupying any sort of policy/consulting/think-tank position tasked with setting economic guidance.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 09:00 | 6574046 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

true and C1 is right on the money

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:47 | 6572217 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

"The Fed is also caught between domestic policy objectives that dictate they MUST raise rates of they will bankrupt countless pension funds and international where emerging markets will go into default because commodities have collapsed and they have no way of paying off this debt that has risen to about 50% of the US national debt."

I think I get the general idea, but I tried reading that sentence 5 times and it still makes no sense to me.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:58 | 6572250 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Because you are awake.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:05 | 6572424 skepsis101
skepsis101's picture

@Bokkenrijder,

After reading Armstrong unfailingly for 8 years ever since he was in prison, as well as personally meeting and talking with him several times at conferences, I think I may be able to help you understand the above quote.  I hope both he and you will allow me the permission to edit it ever so slightly.  

"The Fed is also caught between domestic policy objectives that dictate that they MUST raise rates if they are to avoid bankrupting countless U.S.pension funds, versus the risk of the international economic collapse of emerging markets that are dependent on the commodity trade and which will lead to widespread sovereign defaults because these EM countries will have no way of paying off their skyrocketing debts (which were denominated in increasingly valuable US Dollars) that have globally suddenly risen as high as 50% of the US's own national debt."

I truly believe that this is basically what Martin was intending to convey.  It probably helps to understand that he never progressed beyond a high school education and that sometimes shows up in his writing.  He has a tendency to short-cut sentences, and assumes you are famiiar with his thought processes. And he invariably misspells words, leaves out words, or inserts a similiar but incorrect word in his sentences.  But the man is a genius, of that I have no doubt.  His command of history alone is astonishing for both its breadth and depth.  Many ZHer's are skeptical of his cyclic pi theories, and I have had my doubts.  But he has made some amazingly accurate predictions based upon those theories right to the day, and even years in advance.  I have little doubt that he is onto something that we will only truly understand years from now. 

He is definitely worth a read.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 00:43 | 6573536 Mr. Ed
Mr. Ed's picture

Well, he may be worth a read (I usually read his stuff), but that's no excuse for him to not proof-read his posts.

I don't have a problem with his writing not being witty, smooth or clever enough; I have a problem with his failure to proof-read!

And, he's not the only one.  There's an awful lot of that going on here on ZH.  A LOT!

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 13:44 | 6575204 Down to Earth T...
Down to Earth Thinking's picture

agree and then some ! Isn't it amazing that many still think the PHDs and MBAs that destroyed the economy are the very same people supposedly fixing it ? Martin fully realizes that it is quite impossible and the corruption is so deeply imbedded in the flaws of the system that it is not ven possible to fix anything, just a multitude of paper over distortions and simple deceit ? There will be a RESET and he accepted that probably 15 years ago ? The smart guys , Hey ? nore like lying mother fuckers and basic criminals. 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:45 | 6572537 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Martin Armstrong can't construct sentences for shit.

Yet despite being able to forecast price movements, which - obviously - would make him very rich, he refuses to hire an editor.

What does that tell you about this man?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 19:24 | 6572643 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

-that he wants to write his own posts in his own words.
-that he probably uses speech to text & doesn't go back to check for needed corrections
-that he often posts when he is tired
-that he has trouble focusing on one thought at a time. While writing one post, he thinks of two more.

That is what his post errors suggest to me. But I could be wrong. :-)

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 03:36 | 6573690 The Black Bishop
The Black Bishop's picture

It is quite telling that people focus on his spelling instead of focusing on the message. About the people who focuses on his spelling.

 

As for the 2015.75 prediction. How spot on do you need to be? What has happened so far in the past 1-2 months that falls in line with his predictions/analyzis? China starting to dump US treasuries? Japanese Central Bank not finding enough Jap treasuries to continue QE? The signs are there. It might not be spot on with the timing, but with the incredible amount of Central Bank interference in markets, who can blame him? The trend is there. I think he will be right, but the timing can be off with some months.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 11:10 | 6574442 mtl4
mtl4's picture

The problem is that most people just look at his stuff, see what looks like a chart and simply apply it to the US stock market.  Reality is that those peaks and valleys really correspond to world financial events which sometimes affect the stock market but only when capital is concentrated there.  This peak on October 1st is not a market crash, he said that many times.  Not only that but he accurately predicted the August crash in the DOW that sent volatility through the roof too........the tables are hard to read but once you get it, it's pretty impressive.  Is he always right? No, but I have yet to find anyone that is.  

 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:20 | 6571619 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

End the Pyramid scheme house of cards and put prime at 6% Janet.

What the FED is saying is that they want inflation at 2% while they pay savers 0%.

End the FED!  Hang the money-changers!

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:08 | 6571773 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

they want inflation at 2% while they pay savers 0%

Reminds of how one eats an elephant, one bite at a time.  Or, in this case, at 2%

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:28 | 6571847 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Or with extended family, useless eaters all of them:

 

Ingredients

1 Elephant
10 Warthog
100 kilogram tomatoes
half ton potatoes
2 bags onions
100 kilogram salt
1 wheelbarrow onions (heaped)
10 liter vinegar
20 liter chutney
4 Guineafowl

Method

Hunt the elephant, warthog and guineafowl. Hang guineafowl to ripen. Cut elephant into edible chunks, (will take about a month). Boil the warthog with other ingredients (except guineafowl) till nice and juicy. Now boil elephant chunks over high flames till tender. (will take about 4 weeks) and add everything together. Boil for another 5 to 7 days.

Produces about 3,500 helpings.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:50 | 6571897 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Sounds delicious, but you doubled up on the onions Dutch.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 13:09 | 6575112 SDShack
SDShack's picture

The fact that the Fed will NEVER put prime at 6% again, tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about their INTENT. Their intent is to continue ZIRP and QE forever to control the bond market by taking out the bond vigilantez. When they reach 51% control, the Pyramid (ponzi) scheme becomes permanent when you factor in the printing press. This is all by design to redistribute wealth from the masses to the elites and usher in a New Feudal World Order.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:22 | 6571628 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

Armstrong says strong job growth.  In the US? 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 19:13 | 6572610 Karaio
Karaio's picture

Any Neil Armstrong and Martin Armstrong.

Both enchergam the economy from the Moon.

I believe it is an excellent view.

:-)

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:32 | 6571650 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

Armstrong is a fucking fraud. That is all.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 22:35 | 6573265 New Survivalist
New Survivalist's picture

Brilliant analysis. Tell us more you ignorant fuckjob.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:35 | 6571662 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

Armstrong is brilliant. Just ask him. Like every technician, he's seldom wrong since he'll say that if the market falls, it will keep falling, unless it reverses and goes higher. Then it will keep going up. Either way, he'll tell you he nailed it.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:56 | 6571725 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

Funny. When reading "reader comments" on Armstrong's site, I frequently sense that he either a) makes them up (they sound conveniently contrived), or b) cherry picks flattering comments from among his sycophants.

In any case, the man is truly a legend in his own mind.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:05 | 6572109 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

And not to be a grammar nazi, but Armstrong needs an editor. Does the guy even read over what he has written?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:17 | 6572456 skepsis101
skepsis101's picture

Amish Hacker,

I, also, tend to be a grammar and spelling nazi, much to my own discredit on a site like ZH.  But to answer your question (see my other MA comments on this thread), no, I am certain he does NOT ever review what he has just written.  For chrissake, he barely graduated high school.  But he is a genius.  He moves so fast, and he has so many projects and commitments, that he couldn't care less how careless he is.  I have brought this issue up repeatedly with his daughter and offered my services, but for them it apparently isn't that important, despite how off-putting it is to an unfamiliar public.  You have to read him repeatedly and consistently to begin to read 'between the lines' and reconstruct his thinking.  It is possible, but is also quite aggravating.  Yet, ultimately invaluable.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 20:14 | 6572787 Bob
Bob's picture

But there it is, skepsis101 , , , you offered a solution (I'm guessing you even put it out as free of charge, not that a few bucks would be either inappropriate or a burden for them) and they cast it off. 

Fucking morons is what I get out of that.  Whether arguably weird savants or not.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 23:56 | 6573467 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

BoatBob, savant's thrive on chaos, internal AND external. Order = death...

Give a savant a "neat and tidy" and said savantness will dis-appear.

Our world does NOT know how to deal with it's savants....most of them are in mental institutions...

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 13:37 | 6574159 mtl4
mtl4's picture

Skepsis101, I think using text-to-speech software he can't be bothered to fix it after the fact........with his stuff you just get used to filling in the blanks if you find the info useful. 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:48 | 6572545 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 ...I frequently sense that he either a) makes them up (they sound conveniently contrived)...

His readers' letters often share many of his grammatical... "idiosyncrasies"... too.

Just a coincidence, I'm sure.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:27 | 6572166 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

And these same technicians are the ones who also tell us to "sell anything that is falling" and only "buy stuff that is (already) rising".

 

A little more volatility ought to teach these guys something about VALUE.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:09 | 6572432 skepsis101
skepsis101's picture

@bobnoxious,

You clearly haven't taken the time to read and understand what Armstrong has been trying to convey.  I suggest a bit more humility.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:51 | 6572553 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I've taken the time to read a lot of his writings. On the subject of money, he routinely makes schoolboy howlers.

Maybe he's good at forecasting short term price movements. Whenever I read his forecasts, however, they're always like, "if the price goes up, it may go up some more if it doesn't go back down, whereas, if the price goes down, it may go down some more if it doesn't go back up"

Very useful, I'm sure.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 17:10 | 6576258 Countrybunkererd
Countrybunkererd's picture

When I read your post, i immediately thought of Alan Greenspanties rants about nothing back in the day that led us quite deliberately into the initial part of our current malaise.  I have less faith in PhD's, MD's and the like than i would in hearing an over the road trucker discussing "rantings over the CB radio" over a given quarter or fiscal year.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 17:27 | 6576320 Countrybunkererd
Countrybunkererd's picture

Unless I disagree with said rantings, of course...

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:36 | 6571665 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

"By avoiding the normalization of interest rates (hikes), the Fed has encouraged government to spend far more than they realize because money is cheap."

Yeah thats the ticket they just didn't realize they were spending more than they took in that would like take math and shit, poor guys....

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:29 | 6572169 ThirteenthFloor
ThirteenthFloor's picture

By avoiding the normalization of interest rates (hikes), the Fed has encouraged government to spend far more...

The whole purpose of the FRB (CBs) from the start. Like The Terminator...it is programmed to complete its mission it will never stop and it will never rest....

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 17:12 | 6576270 Countrybunkererd
Countrybunkererd's picture

It is even highly trained on how to get blood out of a turnip.  That should give us all nightmares if you think of it.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:48 | 6571702 El_Puerco
El_Puerco's picture

 Is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.

 

Start here, watching “The forecaster”

 

Nice Video…

 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:02 | 6571740 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

hmmm

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:59 | 6571916 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

His view of history is questionable to say the least. And many of his predictions have not been spot on.

What bullshit this article is. The FED is never going to raise rates, and he is an idiot to suggest they will.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:32 | 6572500 skepsis101
skepsis101's picture

Bey of Pig,

Please share with us those aspects of questionable history, to say the least, which Armstrong has espoused, in your so learned point of view.  I am deeply interested in understanding where you are come from.  

Barring that, ignore this "idiot" at your own peril.  

I have been greatly impressed over the last six and a half years at the amazing depth of knowledge and commentary on ZH.  It is a site unique to the blogosphere.  Nonetheless, braggardly naivete such as this seems to be an unfortunate swirling undercurrent!

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:13 | 6571962 chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

MA thinks gold is a relic. It has no future. He only trusts the dollar. 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:21 | 6572153 I_rikey_lice
I_rikey_lice's picture

"MA thinks gold is a relic. It has no future. He only trusts the dollar".

 

Marty thought the opposite until he was released from prison.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:55 | 6572569 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 MA thinks gold is a relic. It has no future. He only trusts the dollar.

No, he doesn't. He thinks it's a commodity whose price rises and falls like everything else, and he - he alone! - knows what those future price movements will be, because his mighty TRS-80 knows all.

So, Marty, please explain the underlying "cycles" behind the POG in USD from 1913 until 1971.

*crickets*

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:31 | 6572022 iflyjetzzz
iflyjetzzz's picture

I've read him off and on since 2009.  He's been wrong plenty of times.  Somehow, those incorrect prophesies always seem to disappear.  he's a charlatan.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 19:28 | 6572658 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

A family member paid for one of his reports. I read it. What a waste of money. The guy is a salesman and peddling an ego trip that misdirect folks. Thats how he makes his money. I get his daily flood of blog emails...wow there are a lot of worshippers apparently devoted to him and I know one who has lost money as result. IMO a hooker is more honest... and his take on history is cherry picking that intentional avoids key factors -ones that constantly show up wherever you look in history, he is misdirecting people with half truths.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:48 | 6572062 keed
keed's picture

a big problem i have with MA is he preaches gold will not be worth anything in the coming collapse.  one fact alone screams different - china,  russia,  india,  have all been importing gold like mad since 2008 crisis.  now either there are worldwide idiots or he is.  my bet is on where nations put their money. 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:32 | 6572343 orez65
orez65's picture

"... waited to normalize interest rates, ..."

If I may ask, how much is a normalized interest rate?

This ar ticle is pure bull sh.t

The only wat to discover a "normalized interest rate" is to let the market decide.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 22:21 | 6573222 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

Armstrong is a NWO shill who got kicked out of the club.  He used to laugh at zerohedge folks before his fall from grace, and now he tries to sell them his newsletters etc.  I stopped considering anything he says when he said that precious metals and the stock market are not manipulated by the government.

Tue, 09/22/2015 - 13:41 | 6580107 newnormaleconomics
newnormaleconomics's picture

http://usawatchdog.com/fall-2015-turning-point-civil-unrest-and-riots-ma...

Armstrong always reminds me of a sketchy Atlantic City bookie or used car salesman from Jersey. 

There are no fixed cycles in markets and economics, BUT THERE ARE "rhythms" of discernible periodicities against which those who know about these "rhythms" periodically lean to modulate their behavior and effects. 

 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:03 | 6571570 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

A lot of people bet on a rate increase and they are pissed.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:11 | 6571591 SheepRevolution
SheepRevolution's picture

A lot of people bet on no rate increase and they (including myself) are quite satisfied.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:20 | 6571621 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

If you are not understanding that the Fed can't raise rates due to a potential debt tsunami, then you shouldn't be working in this industry

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:29 | 6571642 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Don't be absurd; in fact, raising rates would have exactly the opposite effect in the short term, as capital would come pouring into the U.S. from overseas, thus supporting the further expansion of Treasury debt. Yes if rates keep rising eventually the federal government will have problems funding itself, but that will take years to develop.

What the Fed is doing is listening to Europe and China, which is begging them not to raise rates as they want to prevent even more capital from fleeing their shores for the U.S. It's a retarded move on the Fed's part, and they are simply delaying the inevitable and making things much worse in the long run-- as they dependably do.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:52 | 6571670 xtop23
xtop23's picture

^ that.

They raise rates, the dollar goes parabolic as capital flees over seas devaluation, our exports get decimated, on and on and on.

For the typical American, deflation is a good thing, at least in the short to medium term. A strong dollar allows you to buy a lot of stuff in the market place. The rationale though, is that it's bad for profit margins domestically, and that's why corporations despise it. 

And since corporations and banks run the world.... deflation must be avoided at all costs.

The fact that easing crucifies savers and creates biblical levels of malinvesment and misallocation of capital is irrelevant.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:03 | 6571749 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

Most importantly hurts the govts ability to pay their debt thats why they want inflation 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:12 | 6571789 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Certainly.

There is no differentiation between banks, corporations, and government however. All are mechanisms that work in a symbiotic relationship to advance similar goals.

1 is force.

1 is finance.

1 is logistics.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:58 | 6572409 duck dodgers
duck dodgers's picture

The unholy trinity.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:55 | 6572242 koaj
koaj's picture

What exports?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:06 | 6572281 xtop23
xtop23's picture

+ 1 for the chuckle

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:57 | 6571734 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

They are now "FED to the World".

A bit outside the mandates that they were previously not meeting...

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:04 | 6571756 chunga
chunga's picture

This explains why a country not under attack by anyone needs the biggest military by far with bases all over the world; not to mention militarized po po at home.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 19:53 | 6572729 layman_please
layman_please's picture

i'm going to down-vote all other comments on this page just to emphasize how spot on you are.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:59 | 6571738 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

Raising rates jacks up the bond market, interest rate based derivatives (most of them), stronger doller which implodes EM debt, hurts our multinationals, etc, etc. She won't dare raise with all this tetering on edge. Fed is just fucked.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:15 | 6571796 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

The Fed can't raise rates without crashing the bond market and everything else.

They are already doing covert QE to the tune of more than one trillion a month, much of which is accomplished with reverse repo fraud courtesy of the Treasury and Fed, in order to prop up the dollar.

They will continue no holds barred, but this is a ponzi scheme that those holding massive dollar/Treasury reserves are wise to, which means the clock is ticking.

Soon the Saudis will officially announce that RMB, et al, will be accepted for oil.  Treasuries will be flushed from all international reserves.

Dollars will then be refused for direct payment on manufactured goods, requiring dollars to be exchanged for RMB, etc.

The US will be forced to create a domestic dollar, the new Treasury note, which will be quickly devalued and then devalued again.

In this way, hyperinflation and shortages of goods will finally arrive in the US.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:44 | 6572531 TheEndIsNear
TheEndIsNear's picture

Perimetr: "The US will be forced to create a domestic dollar"

Jim Willie calls it the "Scheiss" Dollar, which he says is German for "shit" (although it's actually Scheiß).

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 19:19 | 6572624 blue51
blue51's picture

Yipes! Your perception is the same as Jim Willie's .

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 07:37 | 6573879 gonetogalt
gonetogalt's picture

A trillion a month??? Are you sure?

P.S....fonz, is that you?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 22:23 | 6573229 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

No it is not.  It is co-ordinated.  It's called rocking the boat.  It's Europe's turn for help.  China?  They will be punished for their tantrum with not being excepted into the IMF basket of currencies.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 22:23 | 6573233 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

No it is not.  It is co-ordinated.  It's called rocking the boat.  It's Europe's turn for help.  China?  They will be punished for their tantrum with not being excepted into the IMF basket of currencies.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:32 | 6571651 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Forget rate hikes, debt tsunamis and the hundred other red herrings in the mix.

Can You say, Insolvency?!?

What happens to the untold billions and trillions of dolars awash in the international markets when they become worthless?

A boll weavil always looks for a home...dollars coming back onshore.

Now, can you say hyperinflation on a scale never seen before!?!

Zimbabwe will look like a 1990's thrift gone tits up in comparison.

DaddyO

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:14 | 6571964 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

It all depends on how fast they pop the bubble. The faster they lance the boil the faster we get on to recovery. Greenspan could have done it in 1999 and it would be a distant memory now. But they don't want that. They want us all to be under the thumb of debt slavers while they run the monetary plantation.

If they wanted to fix the problem it would be fixed by now

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:07 | 6571761 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

What you write implies that the Federal Reserve's loyalties lie with the US Congress & President and NOT the banks, which everyone claims also own Congress Critters and the articulate negro .

I know in tinfoil hat bizzaro world "reality" changes with whatever myth is being peddled that day... but for those of us in the real world, WHICH IS IT?

--

Bank profitability is determined by the interest rate spread between two interest rates, precisely so they have flexibility if one rate moves unfavorably.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:03 | 6571571 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Bring it on bitchez!

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:16 | 6571605 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

they will be forced to raise rates only when they see asset inflation in equities.

 

 

Er, we don't have that now I guess right?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:05 | 6571576 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

This was thier intention. It took them 100+ years of real effort and long term planning to get to this point.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:17 | 6571611 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

You got it, but don't tell the ZH'ers that, they buy into the "FED screwed up" and "Russia is our friend" narratives.

 

 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:21 | 6571626 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

We have much dogma to deal with. People do cling to thier beliefs tightly.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:35 | 6571652 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

Yep, but not entirely their fault. These narratives are bleeted all day by media and even here on ZH. One thing I've learned is that if my opinion is given to me, it's almost certainly wrong.

 

If you wanna know the truth, you're going to have to go find it through research and taking time. Some here think I'm an Alex Jones disciple cause I say the Vatican rules the world. Their small world consists of American alternative media, where Alex Jones "invented" this story.

 

HA! Jones is 100% shill and part of the controlled opposition, along with Ron Paul and most of the leaders in the gold bug movement.

I'm a firm believer in owning gold and I do, but these movements are just another creation of the CIA to control their opposition from the start, like they do all day long. ZH'ers are caught in their web, thinking whoever talks gold and anti-USA must be a good guy.

 

GULLIBLE

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:05 | 6571763 sprintjump
sprintjump's picture

Interesting. So, what is your take on the future? What are the best areas of the country to be in, and what are solid wealth hedges, besides metals?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:22 | 6571823 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

The ability to preduce independantly. They need everyone to be totaly dependant on the system they set up.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:44 | 6571881 sprintjump
sprintjump's picture

Is there going to be a point of mass-liquidations? A major deflationary period where businesses will be off-loading everything they can?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:53 | 6571906 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Personaly my guess is some form of mass asset forfeiture of little fishes. A closing of all exits kind of thing. Who knows?

 They have tipped thier hand on that one. Continuity of government?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:10 | 6571954 sprintjump
sprintjump's picture

Thanks for the reply. I'm just asking questions to formulate ideas and potential strategies... these are not meant to be any kind of 'gotcha' type BS.

If there is a future limit or ban on cash transactions, it seems to me, that kind of policy greatly harms the everyday Joe's ability to hedge themselves with purchases of goods for long-term use... and even barter. So, minus the accumulation of metals, which most of us have probably done a good job of over the years, is this the time to accumulate long-term goods? There is still quite a bit of inflation in a number of areas, like auto's, etc. I've been looking at 70's and 80's pickups, and noticing that they're going for incredibly high prices.

Again, just asking questions.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:02 | 6572101 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Thats a tough one. Either embrace the suck. Or go long tools and skills.

 The tools and skills crowd has been getting its ass kicked for a long time.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:21 | 6572313 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Why is it either/or? Losers see the world as binary. The way always has been and always will be fast, tight and right down the middle.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:47 | 6572375 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Either you have access to the creation of the coin or you dont. Sorry.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:42 | 6571877 Dog Will Hunt
Dog Will Hunt's picture

Come to Texas for the economy.  Then leave Texas, because we don't need anymore fucking transplants.  

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:45 | 6571885 sprintjump
sprintjump's picture

I may already be ;)

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:18 | 6571810 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Yep the gold bugs lose thier minds the first time you tell them its barter. Another dogma.

 Its not that everyone lies? They do and always will its human nature.      Its that we fall for it.

 As to this guy Arnstrong. Funny that he does not grasp the fed is acting with deliberate intent.

 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:04 | 6571929 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

That's why his whole world view is way off base. He doesnt even grasp the blatant and fucking obvious in regard to the FED.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:06 | 6571765 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

It was deliberate.  As for Russia, the enemy of my enemy can be my friend, as long as it is convenient for both of us.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:24 | 6571833 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Putin is a spook. Once a spook always a spook.

 If Putin was the real deal? His actions would be very different.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:06 | 6571577 dbTX
dbTX's picture

Holy hell has already broken out.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 17:22 | 6572321 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I think he means holier hell.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:08 | 6571583 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US debt is $210 trillion or over $1,720,000 per taxpayer compared to debt of $65,000 per taxpayer in Greece.

No rate normalization ever

QE forever

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:09 | 6571949 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Please provide list of Greek unfunded liabilities used to calculate this statement.

But, yes, the sum for both countries is too large to be dealt with except via hyperinflation, repudiation, or war

Out of those three possibilities, I prefer for us to borrow the shit out of everybody and everything and then tell them to go pound sand or sfile their complaint with the Marine Corps.

Evil, I know, but it's every man for himself at this stage.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:33 | 6572178 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Would you marry me?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 18:39 | 6572522 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

He would.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:09 | 6571585 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

All we need now is for Hillary to be the next president. If we're going to get fucked, it might as well be by two women at the same time. I know; I know. Those two are about as asexual as they come. But it fits the occassion.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:40 | 6571872 wendigo
wendigo's picture

Pegging can be a wonderful thing. 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:09 | 6571586 Don Sunset
Don Sunset's picture

"............eventually light the fire under the econom........"

Low rates have put housing and car prices in a major bubble, except that both are falling now.  Yes, rock and hard place since the economy is failing slowly, housing and cars will only drop now and there is a debt bubble.  There will be no "fire under the economy" due to prices.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:12 | 6571590 BlackMagician
BlackMagician's picture

NEWSFLASH!>>>> THE FED CANNOT RAISE RATES

NEWSFLASH!>>>> THE FED HAS NO CONTROL OVER THE ECONOMY...JUST THE APPEARANCE

                   NEWSFLASH >>>> THE FED IS SCREWED and KNOWS NOT WHAT TO DO

News at 11.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:09 | 6571779 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

NEWSFLASH >>>>> Raving escaped mental patient armed with axe tearing through local neighborhood.

 

Details as to which neighborhood is presently being ravaged on our late local newscast after the game.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:34 | 6572180 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

..and a word from our sponsor.

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 09:14 | 6574092 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

What kind of axe was it? Where did he get it? Was it a legal axe, and did he have the proper permits to own and carry it? Has a fund been set up to help get this axe problem under control? We gotta do something about how easy it is for people to get axes! Axes are dangerous and people shouldn't be carrying them in the first place!

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 17:54 | 6576413 Countrybunkererd
Countrybunkererd's picture

Try playing a game of monopoly where one player acts as the FED, the rest are US citizens.  Then play another game where EVERY player is their own CB and one of them is the FED.  NOTE THE RESULTS OF THAT EXPERIMENT...then tell me your thoughts of gold and silver.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:12 | 6571592 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

trav7777

'We are steaming fullspeed toward worldwide repudiation of debt and the banking system.  When this crashes, people will realize how the major European historical imperial powers stayed on top even after their armies disbanded - they had the banks and controlled the paper that was used as money.'

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/piigs-claims-european-banks-15-trillion-france-most-hook-piigs-implosion

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:11 | 6571783 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

trav7777

 

'Shakespeare was wrong - you have to first kill all the BANKERS.  This phenomenon is what these people DO.  It's what they're ABOUT.  It is the Shylock in ALL of them now expecting their pound of flesh.

At the end, money does not matter.  Dollars do not matter.  What matters is having you work yourself to the bone to keep silver spoons in their kids' mouths and keep their mansions heated and cooled and keep their yachts running.'

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/financial-con-decade-explained-so-simpl...

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 00:04 | 6573484 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Well TPTB are going to keep key people well paid, maybe get them positioned for Stock Earnings for retirement,... make them feel important and appreciated... make sure they buy new houses whatever they can afford, buy cars and recreational or sport vehicles... they should have debt, so they have loyalty to the system and their peer group of mangers and executives.

- Whistleblowers don't blow whistles when they are in debt and beholden to the system.

- Then they also take direction well from their leaders, managers, executives, government representatives...

- You spread the wealth around enough to the people that you rely on to protect you

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:12 | 6571594 innsbrooklad
innsbrooklad's picture

The Fed cannot raise rates even if they wanted to. There are 3.5 Trillion in excess reserves sitting at the Fed and they have to sell them in order to lower the money supply...Ever hear of open market operations? What idiot bank will borow Fed Funds at .50% when they have those 3.5 trillion in QE excess reserves not being used. 

The Fed is trapped and Ben's QE is going to destroy ther system. There is no demand for money and that is economic. The system is deflating and there is nothing they can do about it.

Next big event...China asking for a bid on 1.2 trillion in Treasury bonds........

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:39 | 6571676 coast
coast's picture

As mentioned, I am just here to learn..So I ask questions...Someone told me there are no stupid questions, and I go with that.   Its better than having stupid answers.  lol...

 I read that there is 7 trillion in savings...so if the interest rate went up, would not the banks be in dire straights?   If I had a million dollars in the bank (I would be stupid, just making a point),  then the banks would have to pay me more... Am I at least on the same page as reality?   just asking.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 16:34 | 6572182 silverer
silverer's picture

Of course there was always a spread between interest rates:  What the bank pays for the money at the Fed discount window, vs. what they charge when they lend money, vs what they pay depositors.  For instance, if a bank is charging 18% interest on money that costs them 2%, there should be some money left to pay a depositor some interest.  Again, when you put $20,000 in the bank, they pay you 3% for your loan, and then lend out your money for a higher rate.  So what's been happening to the profit spread?  Well, how many savings accounts need to be raided to pay the big chiefs their 200 million a year salary?  I often wonder where do all their profits go?  Well, apparently they don't hang around the bank very long.  Even though they cry poverty and head to the taxpayer for bailouts, there must be an awful lot of money there, because these guys don't leave, do they?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 23:55 | 6573465 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Check what happened in 2008-2010, not a dip in the Savings Accounts of Rich People.

Total Savings Deposits at all Depository Institutions
2015-09-07: 8,164.3 Billions of Dollars (+ see more)
Weekly, Ending Monday, Not Seasonally Adjusted, WSAVNS,
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WSAVNS

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS (.14 Percent)

Bank Prime Loan Rate
2015-09-17: 3.25 Percent (+ see more)
Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted, DPRIME,

- Some good comments here on this thread.

- Where do the profits go?

What matters is all the Expenses taken out of Revenue and Deprived to Investors some of whom might be Joe Sixpack the common worker.

Overhead and Admin Expenses: Jet's, Travel Money, Limos, Car Fleets, Apartments, Houses, Retreats, Conferences, Big New Buildings, Remodeled Offices, Telecom Centers no just on every floor, but door to door likely, cafeterias, security personnel, private garages, private access areas and conference rooms at air ports and other places.

What else you writing off Jamie Dimon?

“It is true that income inequality has kind of gotten worse,” Dimon said, but “you can take the compensation of every CEO in America and make it zero and it wouldn’t put a dent into it. What really matters is growth.”

What matters is Overhead, Admin Costs, Compensation Packages.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 19:19 | 6572625 PrimalScream
PrimalScream's picture

the banks make their money - under traditional banking principles- by the difference beween long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates. The Fed does not control the long-term rate.  That is set by the market.  If the Fed raised their short-term rate, then yes the spread between the two sets of rates would narrow.  And so the banks would make less money.  But in reality, the Fed would hardly adjust the short-term rate at all.  If the Fed "raises" their rate, we are talking about a miniscule increase .... it amounts to nothing. 

The Fed has created some sort of "pop culture" that leads average Americans to believe they have a big effect on the stock market.  While it's true that significant stock market movements often happen after Fed announcements, it is NOT true that the Fed can prevent Bear Markets in stocks.  Major Bear Markets have happened while the Fed was lowering rates. 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 23:41 | 6573442 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Total Savings Deposits at all Depository Institutions
2015-09-07: 8,164.3 Billions of Dollars (+ see more)
Weekly, Ending Monday, Not Seasonally Adjusted, WSAVNS,

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:13 | 6571599 djsmps
djsmps's picture

"they will be forced to raise rates only when they see asset inflation in equities"

Tripling in seven years isn't inflation?

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:19 | 6571601 BlackMagician
BlackMagician's picture

They won't raise rates...but they will infact go NEGATIVE on rates and impede the use of saving cash...that's what I would do if I were in their "rock and hard place"...

Get Ready...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-int...

 

EXCERPT:..."Traditionally policymakers have resisted cutting rates below zero because when the returns on savings fall into negative territory, it encourages people to take their savings out of the bank and hoard them in cash.

This could slow, rather than boost, the economy. It would be possible to get around the problem of hoarding by abolishing cash, Mr Haldane said, adding: "What I think is now reasonably clear is that the payment technology embodied in [digital currency] Bitcoin has real potential."

 

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:26 | 6571632 xtop23
xtop23's picture

For all intents and purposes, they are already doing NIRP.

They'll just go ...... nirpier :/

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:18 | 6571612 nnnnnn
nnnnnn's picture

 

 

you want to live a peaceful life while there are jews in your country?  its the same as trying to set water on fire  -  it wont happen

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:21 | 6571614 harrybrown
harrybrown's picture

Martin Armstrong = zionist appologist & fed silent partner.
what a croc of crap. do these stoogess really think we believe them lol

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 14:09 | 6571778 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

zionist appologist & fed silent partner.

Can you expand on that? Just asking.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 15:12 | 6571961 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Gold is worthless

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 19:09 | 6572603 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

Now you tell me. I collect worthless junk.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 13:18 | 6571616 q99x2
q99x2's picture

All the relatives back on Q99X2 are complaining about the way this article is written.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!