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"What Does The Fed Know That We Don't" - Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Answers
In the aftermath of last week's FOMC "dovish hold" disappointment, it is not only the Fed that has seen its credibility crushed; so have plain-vanilla tenured economists and Wall Street strategists. Recall that it was on August 13, one month before last week's FOMC meeting, when 82% of economists said the Fed would hike in September.
Oops.
Post-mortem: more than four out of five economisseds were, as always, wrong. Hardly surprising: after all, when voodoo art pretends to be science, this is precisely the outcome one gets.
But while there is no surprise in everyone being wrong (because quite simply nobody realized that the only thing is what Goldman wants), one question remains: "what does the Fed know that we don't."
Of course, one has to clarify what "we" means, because Zero Hedge readers know precisely what the Fed knows - it knows that a recession is coming if not already here, as we won't tire of showing week after week.
Here are some examples of what the Fed (if less than 20% of economists) "knows":
1) Business Inventories-to-Sales are at recesssion-inducing levels...
1a) Sidenote 1 - Wholesale Inventories relative to sales have NEVER been higher
1b) Sidenote 2 - here is why that is a problem
2) Industrial Production is rolling over into recession territory
2a) Sidenote - as Empire Fed confirmed this morning for August - inventories are collapsing (and along with that Q3 GDP)
3) Retail Sales is not supportive of anything but a looming recession...
And finally,
4) The last 6 times Auto Assemblies collapsed at this rate, the US was in recession...
* * *
But for those who are unable to form an independent though and would rather ignore reality unwinding before their eyes, instead demanding an "authoritative" voice to crush their cognitive bias, here is Ray Dalio, head of the world's biggest hedge fund Bridgewater, who explains what the recent 4% drop of his All Weather risk-parity fund means.
This is what he said: "different risk parity managers structure their portfolios somewhat differently to achieve balance, so we can't comment on them all. But we can show you how this wealth effect has worked by showing you how our diversified portfolio mix (which simply represents a well-diversified portfolio of assets) would have led economic growth, which is shown in the below two charts, one of which goes back to 1950 and the other which goes back to 1915. These charts show how the excess returns (the returns of the portfolio over the return of the cash interest rate) led economic growth relative to potential (i.e., estimated economic capacity)... If a well-diversified mix of assets underperforms cash, there will be a negative wealth effect and negative incentives to invest in economic activity, which will be bad for the economy. The Federal Reserve and other central banks would be well-served to pay attention to this relationship to make sure that this doesn't happen for long and/or happen too severely. The chart speaks for itself.
The chart in question:
And just in case it "does not speak for itself", here is Ice Farm Capital's Michael Green explaining what is says: "The recent weak performance of All Weather would suggest global growth six months from now will be running nearly 2% below its already reduced potential."
In other words, while the rest of the levered-beta 2 and 20 chasers formerly known as "hedge funds" recently accused risk parity of blowing up their August returns (September is not shaping up much better) the biggest risk-parity fund in the world also found a scapegoat: the global economy, which according to Dalio, is the reason for All Weather's dramatic August slump.
But while blaming the amorphous economy is a rather weak argument, Dalio already has a far more tangible scapegoat ready: the Fed itself, who as the Bridgewater letter cautions "would be well-served to pay attention" to the hedge fund's sudden P&L drop. Because as Dalio goes, so goes the economy.
For now, however, the message is far simpler: absent far more easing, what the charts above signal is that the US economy is about to slam head-on into an economic recession... or rather depression, one which some would add, is only inevitable due to some 40 years of Fed easing starting with Greenspan's great moderation, and continuing through three sequential credit-fuelled bubbles which merely delayed the inevitable "mean reversion" moment
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GTFO!
Austrian Apologists.
[edit: post Debbie Downers: Oopsies, I struck a nerve, but the nerve know not how to strike back other then their downer meds. Do tell, si vous plais.]
"What does the Fed know?" Sorry, but I can't put the Fed in the position of the subject-which-knows/big Other. Their perception of economic reality is so clouded be their academic bias, the statistial lies of the agencies, and the need to maintain market-positive PR that I do not think anybody in the Fed can "know" much with certainty at all. To even anthropomorphize "the Fed" as a collective mind is misleading, as the members there are all trying to distinguish themselves through minimal differences with one another.
Oh, those contradictory Austrians love you Slaughterer. How so, versus their wickedness? Can you, of all, avail?
Goddamn, talk about apologetic!
As if, the Fed were earnest. As if, the Fed were assembled as aristocratic and not oligarchical? As if, the Fed's purpose were just and not nefarious?
Slaughterer, come back to the light, please.
What the Fed knows is that they all read ZH but won't admit it.
Everybody reads ZH
Derp!
I have only been deleted here once!
I am your huckleberry and you are a daisy if you do!
Judging from your pseudocryptic parlance, one must suspect a phd psychopath giving the fed a pass.
OoK, Yup. You nailed it. ...At least better than anyone else dare.
Again and as always...
If this is fight club, give it up! ...Ouch, i got kissed by debbie downer. Too bad she is a silent.
(ps.. thats all you got?)
Austrians on teh march!
Don't fire until you see teh whites in their eyes! I got muh shorts on, how bout chu?
I love the Austrians of old. They did indeed march. However, we have new knowledge, a new context, a present view that indicates that the usurpation of the establishment of their old views is wrong.
Yeah, I haz shortz and longz.
What is old is born new again!
Lol!
But! ...Was what old worth a rebirth? Most often, not.
Was the 1st national bank worth a new 2nd National bank.
Likewise, the 3rd.
Stay on point, my friend.
Too much pomp about overlooks the circumstance.
[... And really, TO TELL THE TRUTH, will the real Ray please stand up? ...All the downs without a rebuttal is like saying Copernicus should burn at the stake!
You go Fight Club!]
Don't play coy with me, ZH, I know exactly what you were expecting. Whatever you represent (disgruntled wallstreet worker, cia plant, expositor of truth, etc.), I see the questions you raise, but I do not know your motive, so stop asking dumb questions about a markit that doesn't exist in any of their believable ideations. You just have to call it as it is. Either it is a totally corrupt market that you are "policing," or you are a government plant (i.e. fascmism, stalinism) that wants to identify (Snowden) your enemies. You are continuously "shocked", as we all are. Enquiring minds like to know why you have to be eternally "shocked". Now down votes for religious zealots (allahu z-hedge) to follow.
They don't appear to be playing coy. ABC Media is owned. They act accordingly. As "shocked" as they purport to be, they are among all the tall trees you can find, the least swayed.
As much as I can bring upon the downers, I am grateful I'm not deleted as I have been here once, and elsewhere often (For example, The Mises Institute has marked my comments related to Aristotle and Mises as spam and Capitalism.org has denied to publish my comments on Harry Binswanger and Peter Schiff articles. However these comments can still be found on my Google sign in comments. WHAT EXACTLY IS IT THAT I HAVE TO SAY THAT NO ONE CAN RESPOND AND THIS THREAD IS NO EXCEPTION!...Wahhhh!)
ZHers love to hate ZH and hate to love it.
CHUMP, where you at?
Meth' s a hell of a drug.
Have fun tonight kid.
The hangover is gonna suck.
/yawn
What are the meds you are supposed to be on? I am guessing a bipolar cocktail, possibly a heavy does of atypicals for possible schizo. Definitely a neurostabilizer in there and a whif of SSRI for the down times.
Step 2, in case you are following along...and you should....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLWbiGxYq10
In the future, if you want to post gibberish, can you please do it on your own blog? 33 posts so far by you on this thread.
Thanks in advance.
I think you are not getting debate because nobody can quite make any sense of anything you are saying. You really shouldn't mumble when you talk. It just comes out as gibberish.
You ain't Doc Holliday.
The Fed no doubt loves the porn at ZH...chart porn that is.
All this excess, and increasing, inventory makes me think we could use even more supply side stimulus. That should
kick start consumer demand and make it allllll better. Damn greedy debt ridden savers aren't holding up their side of
the bargain. How the hell are we supposed to prime the centrifugal force of the virtuous circle of money velocity, when
the lazy ass consumers won't consume!!! Selfish bastards!! I say we give an ass load more money to the top 1% and
watch the job creators pull us out of this quagmire of deleveraging. If we all take jobs at yacht manufacturers, fine cognac
distilleries, Tiffany sales counters, Bently dealerships etc.. we'll whip this motherfucker into shape in nothing flat.
Ya just gotta believe in 'Murca!!
I sense the alliteration of slavery's sarcasim.
I sense a fool attempting to appear intelligent by using big words he/she/it cannot spell.
I originally posted this on August 29... I stand by this as truer now then on Aug 29th...
******************************************************************
Ray Dalio... Head of The World's Largest Hedge Fund...
(Begs) Bets that the Fed will launch QE4 instead of tightening rates / hiking rates sometime in the next quarter.
Ray Dailo (Usual Hedge Fund Newsletter Speak...)
"While we don't know if we have just passed the key turning point, we think that it should now be apparent that the risks of deflationary contractions are increasing relative to the risks of inflationary expansion because of these secular forces. These long-term debt cycle forces are clearly having big effects on China, oil producers, and emerging countries which are overly indebted in dollars and holding a huge amount of dollar assets—at the same time as the world is holding large leveraged long positions.
While, in our opinion, the Fed has over-emphasized the importance of the "cyclical" (i.e., the short-term debt/business cycle) and underweighted the importance of the "secular" (i.e., the long-term debt/supercycle), they will react to what happens. Our risk is that The FED could be so committed to their highly advertised tightening path that it will be difficult for them to change to a significantly easier path if that should be required."
Ok... so I put his text thru the Google Translator using Elite Hedge Fund Speak... and this came out... !
Ray Dalio Translated…
"Mother of Gawd... Jeebus... If Janet 'Freaking' Yellen raises rates instead of launching QE4... then... Bridgewater is fraking toast... I mean we are goners... I mean FUBAR and melt down and I will be walking the god damn streets… and day trading the Nadex.
All our over leveraged positions I put on during this formerly 'Beautiful Deleveraging' are gonna eat us fraking alive and spit out our bones... and that is being optimistic... Somebody get Yellen on the phone and get me a face to face with Her and get me some knee pads cause this is gonna take awhile."
******************************************************************
new add on...
To think that the last 7 years since Tarp Bailout in 2008 has been "A Beautiful Deleveraging (Ray Dalio's words)"... which is summarized by Ray as..
A beautiful deleveraging as one "in which enough 'printing' occurred to balance the deflationary forces of debt reduction and austerity in a manner in which there is positive growth, a falling debt/income ratio and nominal GDP growth above nominal interest rates."
1) We have not had positive growth since 2008... just statistical lies.
2) We do not having falling debt to income ratio
3) We do not have/had nominal GDP growth if mark to market is honestly applied
4) We do not have any austerity except on the little guy
etc... and...
Unnecessary millions out of work
Trillions of derivative positions are now over the heads of everyday bank depositors as risk backstops
Constant rise in the price of major consumer items (food, rent, etc)
Fed balance sheet to the moon
Bubbles everywhere...
etc... etc... etc..
Edgey...
The Federal Reserve chairman and all the governors could simply be replaced by a digital counter as the Fed is only guided by the annual change in 15-64yr old growth in the US. All their obfuscation, all their BS...and all they did was simply attempt to couteract low/high population changes w/ FFR cuts to incent more private and public debt...to synthetically maintain higher economic activity and asset prices than what would be possible organically based on income, wages, savings, and historic levels of debt.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3522366-demographics-the-real-opponent-the-fed-has-been-fighting-for-decades
This isn't opinion or theory...just facts with simple evidence to back it up in the link...Funny this demographic angle is also something ZH has shown very little interest in discussing. I guess a crisis based on a finite world vs. an economic / financial system based on infinite growth doesn't fit some peoples world view.
Finite versus infinite doesn't matter to ZH because ZH backs Austrian principles of free market price discovery. In a free market the price will react accordingly if something is finite or infinite. It just doesn't matter. Your point is redundant because it is naturally accounted by the very thing you are criticizing.
Edit: To further my point I'll ask the following - Without honest price discovery (emphasis on honest) how can we know if a resource or what have you is reaching its limits?
I was 12 years old once............
I don't know much. I'm was a middle class, slightly taught, mostly world learned Veteran who once had a bright career in the world in the tech side of the house. I raised kids, veggies in my own yard, and slowly worked on my standard of living. I didn't buy into NINJ(n)A loans for a home, and basically tried to be a good person to my neighbors. I hated politics and was (as I've stated before) a cheerleader to 'Merica because I wore the uniform and had all the right reasons for doing so (I still haven't seen a poster/shill/ contradictory statement to make me feel bad about MY why's). Now I'm a poor sap with nothing but some PM's I've been late in the game acquiring at great cost to myself with what I've had left and fighting just as hard as when I had the uniform on to maintain for MYSELF a standard of living that I swore to protect for other American's in our country.
But I also was an outcast in society, because I never failed to ask 'Why'. And with you, I have to ask again...why? What question do you pose, so concealed in your own conceit that you are attempting to make other feel 'less than sufficient' or that you want to be 'their huckleberry'? Where I'm from, you had better truly be the man who can walk the walk, and talk the talk to even ask that question.
So who are you? Does your portfolio from the market show cause that you are untouchable in your ability to notice all the nuance's and understand the lay of the land enough to know what direction we should be going? Are you some sort of market maker that you can look at us all with enviable superiority and have us question our own worth because you understand the machinations of the 'Fed' enough that you are the person whom even the market manipulators look to for guidance in their quest to complete.........whatever the fuck they are doing?
Have you gone beyond the mental masturbation of all members of ZH who are trying to figure out what steps to take just to keep food on the table, create a positive flow to their own situations, and have the ability to just sit back and contemplate?
Are you like me, someone who has spent weeks looking for quality employment, at a fair wage without being another slave to the system, and who also has a 'life's work' they are attempting to complete in order to provide something enduring for humanity?
Or are you just another shill posing stupid fucking questions as if you 'know' something, but like the thought that this knowledge somehow keeps you above everyone else and you just have to find a way to feel better about yourself by rubbing (in your mind) our noses in it with vague sentences and worn out statements about dead financial experts, as if you expect us to pick up on the lunacy you project and join you in your lucid thoughts?
Just wondering, cause I'm sick of the whole damn show that is going on on Wall Street, Main Street, Side Streets, and your special block- Detached from Reality Avenue. So fuck off, and unless you're going to save the whole fucking show, let it burn and keep your 'Superior' mouth shut. Dickhead.
Actually in this time of general deep distrust, try doing something good and meaningful...like I am...
Even long time ZHers will take a cursory look and pass on by.
No one gives a shit anymore...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLWbiGxYq10
fed president williams lies about employment - and what america will find out: “I'm not upset that you lied to me, I'm upset that from now on I can't believe you.”
? Friedrich Nietzsche
"Williams said he expects the U.S. to reach full employment by the end of this year or early in 2016."
yah well 95 millions not in the work force definition are evidence that they lie about a basic mandate the Fed has.
>>>>No one gives a shit anymore...
Not true.
Someone at the BLS told someone I trust that sometime during the current administration, they went "full retard" due to administration pressure (actual goal seeking as opposed to using reported data picking the most favorable model, skewing any variables in your favor, and otherwise using every available statistical manipulation to shine the turd).
I wonder if the FED factors that into their calculations... Do they treat it like shadow banking or M3 and ignore it or pretend it doesn't exist, or is BLSing now acceptable jargon in the halls of Marriner Eccles?
You have to be fucking kidding? Please be just a UNIVERSAL redneck instead and wonder about what the FED factors any time, all the time.
Cause, hey, if the FED is factoring, then they must be legit
Yeah, you love the FED. Shout it louder!!!
See you at 30 thousand light years thick!
Your blog is a testament your ignorance of the application of philosophy to contemporary policy, and your post is testament to your ignorance of the application of mathematics and statistics to contemporary policy.
I would suggest you work on your comprehension skills or get over your queer hangup with names before moving from the trivium to the quadrivium.
If you analyze their numbers then this might seem to be the case. For example, in one month one employment demographic changed by about 1M people. Then several months later there was a similar (but smaller) change back toward the original estimate. Goal-seeking or simple incompetence? Hard to say. What is absolutely certain is that the mainstream financial media doesn't do reality-checks on the reports.
Do you mean to say then that you would grant the minitua of the day the benefit of the doubt that the substance of the century does not certainly remove it laughingly out?
This is a haiku.
OC Sure is like a hai-
ku on LSD.
Lucy in the sky
Shimmering like diamonds
Lucy, I know why
The revisions will happen regardless, although they would tend to be larger with falsified data, unless BLS management was epically incompetent, which is actually unlikely in my experience, unless you are talking about .gov desk jockeys under 50 years old.
What I don't know, and is critical, is whether the fraud is limited to survey data. If it is, then they at least have the option the blaming the sampling methodology and seven sigma dumb luck. However, if the fraud extends to data that is counted as opposed to estimated- then the Rubicon has been crossed, and the cost of turning back is accelerating the decline of US financial preeminence. Even Donald Trump holding court on White Hut lawn and Kim-Jong-Un'ing senior .gov officials would be too little, too late.
So what the Fed actually knows that we don't know is important to determining how far into crazy pill land they will go to preserve the status quo, and thus how excruciating the over correction before mean reversion will be. Ray Dalio should stick to running his messianic cult of tea boys and protecting his portfolio instead of opining on what the Fed actually knows, unless that is what Ray is actually doing...
And that statistical manipulation is well documented here and elsewhere.
No, statistical manipulation has been documented here and elsewhere. No one has documented fraud and most otherwise serious people will only insinuate it. I am going there, albeit with only heresay (non) evidence.
What the Fed Knows is what the public has forgotten. This is that if you saddle any economy with enough interest bearing debt you will kill it.
OC, are you located around New York City? Or BK Orange County in SoCal?
your french sucks, so do the french
oui, bien sur.
...errrr
Since you asked so nicely; "si vous plais" = "If You Please"
Your remark makes no sense,
You say Austrian School Apologists.
Everything that the previous article lays out for you is how Keynesian economics has failed.
Keynesian economists believe that private sector decisions lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes which require intervention by the public sector or government. This includes monetary policy actions by the central bank and fiscal policy actions by the government, in order to stabilize output over the business cycle.
If Austrian School economist's were in charge of the financial system, phrases like "Too Big to Fail" and "We are the 99%" would never have been spoken.
Furthermore, if Austrain School economist's were in charge, we would never have had TARP, QE1,2,3, etc. etc. etc., ZIRP, NIRP or THE FED
I think you need to learn what Austrian School Economics is before you try think of your next witty one liner.
Long live the Austrians. The question is that when the next collapse comes do we get more Keynes or will anyone in charge ask the key question, "Is there another way we should look at?".
s'il vous plait.
I don't mind some of Dalio's opinions, but I wouldn't trust him for a second. He's a shifty bastard.
Opine, what of the facts?
Which facts? Dalio argues that china is in good shape and everything will be OK, just with slower overall growth. He talks nothing of the severe global downturn, just that things are a bit soft. In the end he still has a stake in the performance of the global economy and will talk it up whenever he can.
Actually, Dalio has pointed out that China is working against 3 strong headwinds, one of which by itself will require the equivalent of economic heart surgery.
As for the global economy, he believes that we are at the end of a long-term debt cycle, which will require a lot of pain (as in Great Depression pain with lots of social strife as in the kind that brought Hitler to power -- his analogy) to get through. The deleveraging has not started yet, and it has to complete before things get better.
You have to consolidate what he says; he knows if he said it all in one place at one time then the markets (which tend to be driven by rather stupid people who have to have reality spoon-fed to them) would crash rather than tumble.
Here is an interview on bloomberg in which he explicitely says that we are mid-way through the debt cyle. You can call it cosolidating his opinion, I'll call it cherrypicking.
Here it is: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/ray-dalio-is-worried-a...
Exact quote: "Mid part of the cycle"
To make it clear, Dalio has said (a) we are at the end of the long-term debt cycle, and (b) we are in the middle of a short-term debt cycle of which there are several within a long-term debt cycle.
Dalio has gone to some pains to explain his model and thought process. I encourage all to take advantage of the videos and especially his reports. Dalio does not accept retail investors, which along with his unmatched record (including by the likes of Warren Buffett) makes him to my knowledge the most credible source.
While I'm talking about Ray Dalio, the most successful hedge fund manager of all, for the special benefit of ZHers, remember his remarkable comment regarding gold:
"If you don't own gold...there is no sensible reason other than you don't know history or you don't know the economics of it."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wK6mUl3YMwU
The facts that he identifies that are not facts at all?
Austrian Apologist: http://www.economicprinciples.org/
Could it be Dalio is just like the Fed, in that, he is simply talking his book?
It's all opinion.
Dalio is part of the system and excels in it. The system is corrupt. That does not necessarily mean that Dalio is corrupt. It just means that through his actions he supports a corrupt system. (ummm never mind)
I wonder what clubs he joined and what secrets he has pledged to keep for the privilege of being rich.
Dalio still believes GDP growth is positive.
Believes in Austrian econ too. Like a bridge over troubled water, he built that with a little help from his friends.
You need your medication dude.
Yummy! Do explicate, si vous plais.
actually, it's "s'il vous plais".
French is different than Austrian
Yes. Evidently, as my comments show, I am just a knucklehead.
Ty, for the correction.
Is there anything else of substance with respect to my comments that may be discussed/scoffed/corrected?
Give it up, if you please!
Where should I start? At the beginning?
Of course he does, he makes a crap ton of money keeping people in the market.
Dalio is a fraud.
Glad you agree.
Nuh, uh. Cuz, Ray's been in the business since Mrs. Robinson. So, He's all good. ...No compromise at all!
[Edit: Hats off for making one's way in the context of uncomely contextualization. However, eat your hat if you must cheerlead for the fraud: http://www.economicprinciples.org/]
Yep. He also said that below 2% growth for more than a short time would blow up the financial system in the interview with the fat CNBC persian lady Maria somebody or other.
I think they are going PRINT like bankster banshees as they prepare the FEMA camps, for the rest of the population, and in their war efforts against the citizens of the United States of America.
GOING to print?
It necessarily goes on everyday, each one before, and everafter.
You should have learned by now that Maria Bartiromo is Italian-American, and is married to jewish banker/financier Jonathan Steinberg ... Link from Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Bartiromo
Link to WisdomTree founded by Steinberg: http://ir.wisdomtree.com/management.cfm
Jonathan Steinberg founded our Company and has served as our Chief Executive Officer since October 1988
The Fed will get what they want, until they can't.
Most of Dalio's observations on the market have been correct.
He is also one of the few hedge fund managers who believe in holding physical precious metals as a hedge (insurance) for the value of money, sooner or later more will understand why as well...http://goo.gl/aCl53Q
Yep, let's keep pretending that he haven't been in a depression masked over by excessive debt, SNAP, and a compliant media since 2000, accelerating the trend that's been going on since 1971.
No worries, nothing that can't be resolved by letting in millions of Muslim refugees.
I'll bet some great apartments could be had in Syria right now.
"it knows that a recession is coming if not already here" - It never fucking ended!!
You're confusing depressions with recessions.Two different things.
He means a recession within the current depression.
Nothing WWIII can't cure though, nothing else will.
WWIII is the opposite of what we need.
Joe Rogan Experience #331 - Dr. Steven Greer
https://youtu.be/0gVLv5eg4Xg?t=5093
People don't need wars, but sociopath power structures love that shit.
"it knows that a recession is coming if not already here" - It never fucking ended!!
sorry
Things fall apart; the center cannot hold.
I like the cute joke that the Empire FED can have "inventories". Just a trick to make it look like they do anything productive.
recap:worse b/4 better. thanks a trillion worthless dolla...
how much hedge can a hedgefund hedge if a hedge fund is hedged?
How much hedge could hedge fund hedge if a hedge fund could fund hedge?
S&P 500 and gold go to 1650 with the DXY at 87....
And silver to 25
i agree w/ s&p 1650 which is also near the 40 yr regression line.
100/200 death cross tomorrow or tuesday
Phyical..you know what I'm talking about
What does the Fed Know? I am sure they know something, but i am drawing a Blank Here..
Market thoughts:
http://thetradingcrucible.blogspot.com/
+1 not bad
George Stephanopoulos Apologizes For Not Disclosing ...
Piss off George, shall we remind your viewership on contributions to the Clinton Foundation? Ray can vouch for you.
Trump just handed your ass on a sterling platter.
not a bad plan, attack the interviewer, ha luv it. fuck those fucks and their biased free pass. go get em trump...
ps. fuck trump as president...
in the wish/think/realize(not gonnna happen) camp for paul, ha...
Too early to predict. We love mud slinging. Stay out of geopolitical debates if you can't handle the heat. IMHO!
The fed knows nothing. It chases the data like 95% of underperforming traders. You can't outsmart a market looking at the same hand of cards as everyone else....or by listening to the same one sided paranoids that see the boggyman behind every tree.
Anyone listen to Bob Brinker this weekend...
Oh, he called it...No rate hike
He knows that the Fed is concerned about the strong dollar, wants more inflation, and is worried about the Chinese economy..
WAIT! Where is it written that a strong currency should be knocked down by Fed action?
Where is it written that the Fed should promote inflation?
Where is it written that the Fed should be concerned with ANY OTHER economy...especially one that went too far too fast and is run by Communists?
Rand and Ron Paul are right...reel in the Fed...they are self expanding their powers and redefining their mandates.
They're using their power.
Bob Brinker?! Is that bastard still on the air?
He must be a committed socialist- Fed Cheerleader- he's a big fan of QE and was scornful of a rate hike- as if thecFed doesn't need to unwind this ZIRP thing sometime???
The word RECESSION will NEVER be officially recognized by this federal government - in any form - while this president is in office.
The problem is, the fed doesnt know how to deal with the poor, or even the middle class.
The poor and middle class to them is like an adult male trying to take care of a breast feeding baby. They are totally confused.
oh but they do, it is just that the plan for the poor will be put into operation -after- the ugly near future, and the dust has settled enough. plus prep so you live through the ugly.
For now, however, the message is far simpler: absent far more easing, what the charts above signal is that the US economy is about to slam head-on into an economic recession... or rather depression, one which some would add, is only inevitable due to some 40 years of Fed easing starting with Greenspan's great moderation, and continuing through three sequential credit-fuelled bubbles which merely delayed the inevitable "mean reversion" moment""
At this point, depression is mild to what may happen: societal collapse.
Please, let us make SURE the Fed pays with it's life for this.
It may be the only positive in the pain coming...
m
The FACT that all we talk about anymore is what the FED says or does or might do is enough to show where we have arrived.
The world has come down into the lap of the psychopaths and the people don't care as long as they have their mindless entertainment. Proves evolution as a dead theory. Also, show that only God can clean the mess up and He will; just don't you be part of the mess.
Holy shit the world is about to end! I haven't been saying that since 2009 I promise
The FED knows nothing that we don't. In fact the FED knows and understands less than we do.
The only thing we might not know in full detail is the full extent and detail of their manipulation, illegalities and buddy buddy deals for their masters.
"The FED" is literally 20ish men that decide what immediate action benefits them most at this moment. These men then give orders to a buzzing hive of underlings that are charged with "making it happen". Fake stats and metrics, idiotic rates and QE printing, nefarious algos and investigations, insane policies and politicians are all then put into play like instruments in a large orchestra, played by crack addicted chimps.
Bridgewater's message is simple: absent far more easing, what the charts above signal is that the US economy is about to slam head-on into an economic recession.
How disingenuous can this read get just based on this statement alone?...
We've been in a recession for more than 6 years and no amount of QE NIRP/ZIRP or other will fix it at this point.
The "brake pedal" which was interest rates is permanently damaged with no use for 81 months and the only thing left that works is the accelerator!!!
Have fun going off the cliff!
With our countless opportunities to hold those in public office for the crimes that have been committed since the bailouts responsible and done nothing -congratulations... you've earned it!!!
You mean all those on PO that Dalio cheerleads?
http://www.economicprinciples.org/
Like a bridge over troubled water....lmao. You go Ray!
Well, what the Fed thinks is pretty much irrelevant to the working man/woman on the street.
I can tell you that I have quite a number of friends that are doing quite well professionally and financially. All of them or their wives have told me about wanting to buy X car, or Y furniture set, or Z other large purchase (multi thousand dollars, etc), that they have deferred because "things just do not feel right, right now". That's their exact quote. All of them say they have the money or could easily get financed for a car, etc, but just do not want to make that step right now.
Most of these people I would classify as your usual sheeple. But, they are slowly waking up to the fact that things are not right. I just smile and don't really say anything that could upset them. I just nod my head and say they are right. They just can't put their finger on it.
Then I usually say something to the effect of "But interest rates have been so low since 2008....", and they launch into some discussion about why and how that is bad. It's very entertaining.
Should the soul mate of Kevin Henry be ashamed of himself or simply laugh this off to tears!
Lots of clamor, but look above, no one dare jump into the ring with OC Sure.
Some Club this is!
Pusillanimous downers dare not...
Guess I gotta save it for the 9 to 5 crew.... At least they are forthright.
LMFAO. Whats the matter, cat got your tongue?
OK. I'm curious. What do you want to fight about?
Thank you, sir.
I am not much of a fighter. I just agree with the facts. If you would please scroll above and observe that upon each of my "debbie downered" comments, nary a one was actually met with a beef.
My beef, is "where is the beef?" Debbie, why you so down?
Don't care to fight, just want to reach the truth.
So, lets talk about it?
I expected a more finite contained thesis. I don't have time right now to search for the truth or the meaning of life. Sorry. If your question is really why does it seem that so many are "so down", then I think the answer could be, as for me, is I is that I felt better off and more financially secure and optimistic years ago. I don't think I was really aware that this was due to large amounts of borrowed money at the time and now I realize that the "adults" I thought were in charge - weren't adults or competent. So betrayal as a cause of "being down"? All I have time for now.
Do hong? please hong on. Neither of anyones lives here will ever differ. You were so close but like all the other ABC Media slaves must succumb.
Best Wishes,
Defender of Truth
I'd say you're more of a purveyor of horseshit.
Try Websters for more big words.
Whether dabbling in your own solipsism or narcissism, you are not looking for a fight or to defend truth, you're looking to read your own comments as if they are enlightened and feign intelligence.
Fuck off. We don't go over to Bloomberg and attempt to tick off the Fed lovers. If this echo chamber annoys you leave. No one thinks you're smart or winning any self conceived argument.
Masturbation is much more productive.
Save the retort too. Trust me. I won't read it.
Not intelligent enough to carry a conversation as I expected. Just a wanna be cyber berserker. Go rattle around some rwhere else.
The FED knows one thing only. They do not want to be the ones blamed for the upcoming market meltdown. Now someone else gets to hold the hot potato.
Oh they're gona get blamed, the cats out of the bag. There won't be consequences, though, unless the one group of people(that's 300 million+ in size) decide to do something about it. Otherwise, regardless of the economic shitstorm, it's private jets, private islands and huge salaries for the psycopathic destroyers of our nation. The MSM will continually blast, but enough of us know better. There won't be arrest, no prison sentences, no nothing. Yet we'll all suffer, possibly with our lives. So if you want to talk about how the Fed isn't all-powerful, you better think again. Because right now no one's doing shit and unti/unless they/we do, the Fed is the most powerful entitly this planet has ever known.
Sadly, there's not much you can do, that doesn't involve life imprisonment, that would make a difference. That's why they are powerful. When we finally rise up it will be when things are to the point to where it no longer matters if you are dead or alive.
Has to be a way to kill them with a thousand little cuts.. old adage, find their strength and turn it into a weakness
Their strength is the financial system. Shun that big enough, long enough and you will crush them.
I hate to utter it and will pity and pray for the victims- but the only way out for the Fed is a false flag catastrophe or WW3! The markets get a global reset toward baseline valuation- and the Fed is off the hook and Scott free after blowing the bubble! Scary and sad- yet imminent.
Thanks to ZH, the Fed's don't know ANYTHING THAT WE DON'T KNOW. Which puts the fucking clowns in an even more shitty position. The games up you jackasses!
Too bad the Fed's teach your children on the yellow paddy wagon and not ZH though, right?
I don't have kids, thank god.
Thanks for that.
Shhh... beware, the regulars are out!
Gold appears to be going down again as I type this.
Aaah, the safety of the USD
As paper gold drops...my dealer puts his physical PM spread up.
Silver Maples used to be $1.50 over spot...now it is $4.50. same with gold.
Don't play dumb, Ray.
Looks like you were suckered by vanity and the CFR, Trilateral Commission and Bilderberg pulling you in to their machinations.
They will take everything you have, and laugh about it, as per their Talmud.
No offense to ordinary jews who will be bankrupt also. See Madoff and Jon Corzine for how the mobsters treat ordinary 'investors' as schmucks.
And they will enjoy taking it from you, Ray. You built it. They want it. They are sociopaths. Remember that.
The New Depression has gone on since banks were bailed out. That is not capitalism. That is corporatism.
The small boats of finance ride on the great ocean of economics; macroeconomics; productivity; sound money; sound people.
Game over, Ray. You are about to be thrown overboard by the greedy international financiers, the globalist dystopia of fiat money as a means of control, geopolitical profit for the few...and you were an 'educated fool'.
Come home to the USA, and don't be so easily swayed by the globalists next time.
BTW, hi Yen Cross. Nice to see you still here and about.
The Fed knows that all the economic "data" that is publiched by the Federal government is bullshit.
This is perhaps the most boring and non-informational thread I have ever read on the hedge, I know nothing new and have zero enlightenment, in fact I may be dumber.. I'll stop by Monday afternoon maybe..
Q3 GDP will be reported at 4% (it has already been decided) of course.
So what?
Physical Gold, silver, brass packed with lead. Take delivery.
.
So Dalio (along with Chuckles Schumer and every other Democrat including maxine Waters) want the Fed to 'get busy'?
QE 4...n here we comes.
The Fed will not allow a deflationary collapse. Ultimately they will shell out cash for anything that has a theoretical financial value....but first...bunga bunga...I mean we'll have to have a good scare.
Fortress Investment Group, FIG, is fucked as well. Billions redeemed from these losers. AND their pet, Naitonstar Mortgage, LLC, NSM, is off FIFTY PERCENT for the year so far! Guess why. Right, they are inept and corrupt. Bam!
How the fed determines interest rates.
Paper gold will probably go much lower. I protect my stash with an inverse negative GLD fund. Gold goes up...I'm happy...gold goes down...I'm fiat richer...
Your fund is part of the COMeX paper crime scene. YOU are part of that, you support it. Do so at your own peril. The LBMA and CONeX are dead men walking, DODO moment is strait ahead as their raw product is bled to the BRICS, bar for bar, brick for brick. 229:1 ? HAHAHAHAHA... TICK TOCK...
Paper gold will probably go much lower. I protect my stash with an inverse negative GLD fund. Gold goes up...I'm happy...gold goes down...I'm fiat richer...
Just watch the Blowhorn[CNBS] start marketing tickets on the "December Deck" of the U.S.S. Shit~Titanic next week.
BTW The "December Deck" is just under the engine room.
LMFAO.
"In the aftermath of last week's FOMC "dovish hold" disappointment, it is not only the Fed that has seen its credibility crushed; so have plain-vanilla tenured economists and Wall Street strategists. Recall that it was on August 13, one month before last week's FOMC meeting, when 82% of economists said the Fed would hike in September."
I thought the Fed. had mandates? Employment and GDP are well within the, 'Bureau of Lies And Statstics' triple seasonally adjusted figures, NO?
The farcical 3.7% Q-3 GDP revision, and 5.1% unemployment rate should be sending ticker~tape parades down Wall Street.
Bitchez. ha