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Key Events In The Coming Post-FOMC Week
In the week following the Fed's admission it is not only market-driven but now has a 4th mandate, which is to respond to China's hard landing on a day-to-day basis, US macro events mecrifully slow down to give everyone a chance to digest what the Fed just did. Here are the highlights.
- On Monday, the US only gets existing home sales data this afternoon from the ever-conflicted NAR, although even Larry Yun may be hard pressed to come up with positive spin. According to BofA, 'After a string of solid gains in existing home sales, we think the risk is for a modest reversal, falling about 1.0%, to 5.53 million, in August. Mortgage purchase applications have slipped lower over the prior two months, while pending home sales have softened. Moreover, the data are due for a reversal after the strong performance over the prior several months."
- Tuesday morning in Asia we get the Conference Board leading indicators out of China, before Euro area consumer confidence and UK public finance data is due in Europe. In the US tomorrow we’ve got the FHFA house price index and Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index reading.
- It’s a busier day on Wednesday and we start in China with the flash September Caixin manufacturing PMI print, arguably the most important data point of the week. This is followed up by the flash PMI (manufacturing, services and composite) readings for the Euro area, Germany and France in the European session. The manufacturing PMI print will also be due in the US on Wednesday.
- The focus on Thursday morning will be in Japan where we get the manufacturing PMI print and all industry activity index reading. This is before we turn to the European session where we’ll get German IFO and consumer confidence and French confidence indicators. There’s some top tier data in the US on Thursday with capital and durable goods orders, while initial jobless claims, new home sales, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity and the Chicago Fed national activity index are also due.
- We finish the week in Asia with Japan where we’ll get CPI and PPI data. That’s before we get Euro area money supply in the European session. It’s a busy end to the week in the US and it’s highlighted by the final reading of Q2 GDP. The core PCE print will also be closely watched while the flash services and composite PMI’s and University of Michigan consumer sentiment print round off the releases.
Fedspeak is set to be closely watched and we’ve got Yellen due on Thursday, while Lockhart (next three days), Bullard (Friday) and George (Friday) are also scheduled. ECB President Draghi is also due to speak, scheduled for Wednesday.
Summarizing the US calendar courtesy of BofA:
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What day is the reset scheduled for?
<Mrs. Cog and I are meeting with the in-laws Wednesday so please don't schedule it for then. This coming weekend would be perfect since I'm off work both Sat and Sun and will be available to man the ramparts.>
/s
If you plant a garden and put a high fence up behind it, and only have enough water to take care of that little patch of land, you can take pictures of that garden and send them out to make it look like everything looks that way. Meanwhile everything behind the wall has rotted away and looks like the surface of Mars. If that landscape is never shown you can still claim everything is coming up roses showing your little garden.
A rotting apple on the ground can look the same as a ripe one, until you step on it. The fleshy support of our economy is rotting away, one day it will just collapse into a putrid mess.
will that one day be in 2016, 2015, Oct, Sept...or?
...and then that "surface of Mars" may not be the real mccoy, to many folks.
The news will all be rosy and the rate hike in October lie will begin!
Blah, blah, blah...
Stupid is as stupid does, 90% of the American eCONomy preys upon stupidity.
The tighter these power mongers and useless paper-pushers squeeze, the more people that will slipt through their fingers and the sooner these fuckers will have to actually work for a living.
Fuck em.
same as it ever was...
Key events?
All I see is a big list of pointless seasonally adjusted manipulated and thoroughly made up bullshit.
This business of moving markets based on statistical noise is getting old. Is there any reason a commodity should move in a 10% range almost daily because of a weekly survey?
Guess what. Walmart is moving its payment terms on hundreds of suppliers from 30-45 days to 90 days. Other big retailers are doing the same. We were notified on a change to 180 day terms by one of our accounts. THAT IS SIX MONTHS BEFORE YOU GET PAID. There is no cash flow out there in the real economy.
Maybe that is another reason why rates can't go up. If you are borrowing money to run your business and fund operations for six months, what you receive on the eventual payment won't be enough to pay your debts.
A few years ago I sat down with a buyer and he started discussing moving the payment terms further out and expanding his margins. I said, "How about I sell you my product for what I pay for it and give you net never terms. Will that make you happy? That is where we are going right?"
That is why they have to use these bullshit error filled surveys to gauge economic activity. Real commerce has a terminal affliction. One real survey would leave CNBC looking like The Walking Dead.
Essentially the US national debt is on 'net never' terms. As long as it can be continuously rolled over no one thinks beyond their nose.
The issue is people buying the debt still think they are going to get paid. When a business owner knows he isn't going to get paid, he closes up shop.
We are monetizing the debt to keep up the illusion that debts will be paid. Once the realization that the debt can not and will not be paid, then it's game over.
Forgive my language but this is just fucking ridiculous now. Pathetic isn't a strong enough word to describe the Fed and other central bankers.
DavidC
You are fucking forgiven. :>)
<I have run out of adequate adjectives to describe the present situation and now regularly resort to more 'colorful' terms, if for no other reason than to vent.>
Hey CD:
A short note to say "hello" and that we hope you (and Mrs. Cog), family too... are all doing well.
Be well, AR
Hi AR. Nice to see you around. Hope all is well with you and your family as well.
It is positively unsavory.
me2! Fuck those fucking fuckers, fucking assholes!