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"Time's Up" - Government Shutdown Odds Spike To 75%
Two weeks ago, when no one was talking about the possibility of a government shutdown, we warned it was coming. Today, as Politico reports, with very little time left to reach a deal, budget experts project a 75% chance of a shutdown.
While a shutdown is anything but certain, of course. But it’s hard to see how the situation could change dramatically in the very short time left before the start of the fiscal year. It’s far more likely the odds will get worse rather than better. Politico's Stan Collender's most recent projection is that there is now a 75 percent chance of a shutdown. As he explains,
As an almost 40-year veteran of the federal budget wars and one of the few people who has served on the staffs of both the House and Senate budget committees, I’ve reached this lofty number by reading the budget tea leaves that others seem almost desperate to discount, disregard or ignore.
First and foremost, there is not enough time to reach a deal. Not only have none of the fiscal 2016 appropriations yet been signed into law, none have even passed both the House and Senate. With less than two calendar weeks (and far fewer days of potential legislative work) to go, the only way to keep the government from shutting down will be for Congress and the president to agree on a continuing resolution to fund the government for a short time while a larger deal is negotiated.
Such a short-term CR will be very difficult for any number of reasons, but the controversy over Planned Parenthood is perhaps the biggest one. The dispute over continued funding for the organization has added a hyperemotional element to what already is a hyperpartisan and dysfunctional budget process. Some Republicans have vowed never to vote for any legislation — including a CR — that maintains this funding, while the White House has promised to veto any bill that ends it. With Congress not likely to have the votes to override a veto, this issue alone could easily bring government operations to a halt on Oct. 1.
In addition, the dispute between the parties over military and domestic funding has so far been impossible to negotiate. Democrats want both military and domestic spending increased while Republicans have proposed an increase for the military but a reduction in domestic programs.
These already difficult issues are being made much worse by the often-extreme differences between House and Senate Republicans and the inability of the GOP leaders in both houses to control their members.
That puts Senate and House Republicans directly at odds. McConnell likely can’t get the Senate to adopt a CR that stops funding for Planned Parenthood while Boehner can’t get the House to adopt one that allows it to continue.
That means the speaker and majority leader might have to do what Boehner has done in past budget fights: work with Democrats to get the votes needed to move ahead. But House and Senate Democrats already have indicated that their votes won’t come cheap. Their demands could include all of the budget items Republicans don’t want, such as more funding for domestic as well as military programs, continued funding for Planned Parenthood and funding for the implementation of the agreement with Iran. They might also want something more, such as an agreement to begin the budget negotiations the White House has been requesting.
This total capitulation to Democratic demands will be very hard for House and Senate Republicans to stomach. It could cost Boehner his job as speaker and threaten McConnell’s authority as majority leader. It also is not at all clear that House Republicans or the four GOP senators running for president view a government shutdown as an event to be feared politically or that they are worried about being blamed should one occur. For some — including many of the same representatives who are threatening Boehner’s tenure as speaker — a shutdown would be the legislative equivalent of a reelection campaign event that energizes the Republican base and convinces constituents someone is fighting for them in Washington.
These House members point with glee to the results in the first election following the last shutdown in 2013. Not only did the GOP win nine seats and wrest control of the Senate, it won 16 more seats and increased its majority in the House. Why should anyone think, they ask, that the situation will be any different this time around?
* * *
As we concluded previously, there is more than one way that Congress could still avoid a shutdown at the end of the month. The most obvious option would be for House Republican leaders to bring “clean” spending legislation to a vote, with the expectation that it would pass with substantial Democratic support. To satisfy conservatives, the House could also vote on separate legislation to enact the specific policy changes some lawmakers are demanding, potentially via the reconciliation process, which requires only 51 votes in the Senate and therefore would allow congressional Republicans to send such a bill to the President’s desk (it would nevertheless be vetoed, but the effort might be enough to satisfy House conservatives). A second option would be to split off the controversial issues from the funding for other agencies, limiting the scope of any potential shutdown, similar to the strategy used in late 2014 to extend spending authority in the face of Republican opposition to the President’s executive action on immigration. However, it seems unlikely that congressional Democrats would support such a move this time around.
So will a shutdown occur? With a few weeks to go until the deadline, the outlook is very murky but our best guess is that Congress will narrowly avoid it. While there are several considerations that make a shutdown possible, as noted above, support for the current effort is still fairly limited. Prior to the 2013 shutdown, for example, 80 House Republicans signed on to the effort to oppose spending legislation unless it blocked funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare). By contrast, only around 30 have signed on to the current effort, though that number may rise.
More importantly, while the probability of a shutdown of some kind seems to us to be approaching 50%, we think the probability of a shutdown that has a significant effect on the financial markets or real economy is much lower, for two reasons.
First, unlike the 2013 shutdown, which coincided with the deadline to raise the debt limit, the next deadline to raise the debt limit is unlikely to be reached until at least mid-November. As shown in Exhibit 1, shutdowns that overlapped with debt limit deadlines—the 1990 and 2013 shutdowns—have tended to result in a stronger reaction in financial markets than other shutdowns where the debt limit deadline was not about to be reached.
Exhibit 1: Shutdowns create volatility mainly when they overlap with a debt limit deadline
Source: Bloomberg, Congressional Research Service, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Second, a potential shutdown would probably be very short. In 2013, the shutdown ended up lasting longer than initially expected, in large part because the only natural deadline was the debt limit deadline, which was 2.5 weeks after funding lapsed. While one might argue that the lack of any deadline could lead to an even longer potential shutdown this year, it is more likely in our view that it would simply result in a decision to end the shutdown soon after it began, as has been the case with nearly every other government shutdown. In the 12 instances since 1980 that the federal government has shut down due to a funding lapse, the shutdown has lasted more than a week only twice. In 2013, we estimated that each week that all agencies were shut down would reduce real GDP growth in the quarter by around 0.2pp, though most of this effect would be reversed in the following quarter (after the first week, most civilian defense employees returned to work, reducing the economic effect of the final two weeks of what turned out to be a three-week shutdown).
It is too early to predict with any certainty whether a shutdown will occur, let alone how long it might last, but as the situation stands today, it seems likely to us that if a shutdown does occur it would have a smaller effect than the one in 2013.
* * *
SocGen is just as downbeat on the chances of avoiding a shutdown...
With the beginning of a new fiscal year less than two weeks away and no funding authorization in place, there is a growing chance of a Federal government shutdown. Congress will also have to increase or suspend the debt ceiling within the next 1.5 month as the Treasury is projected to exhaust so-called ‘extraordinary measures' at some point in October or November.
...
No matter how immaterial in terms of their economic impacts, government shutdowns create uncertainty and thus influence Fed decisions. We already view the odds of an October liftoff as low and a government shutdown could lower them further. Although funding issues should be resolved by the December FOMC meeting, there is a small chance that the fiscal standoff extends into the end of the year (i.e. due to a temporary continuing resolution), creating another deterrent for the Fed.
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With less than two calendar weeks (and far fewer days of potential legislative work) to go, the only way to keep the government from shutting down will be for Congress and the president to agree on a continuing resolution to fund the government for a short time while a larger deal is negotiated.
and this will happen at midnight the day before it runs out.
This should be bullish. Somehow...
This is where a bunch of government employees stay home for two weeks without pay only to come back after two weeks and paid retroactively for the two weeks missed.
Government workers can plan for their fully paid vacation time now.
The US government stopped working since 2000.
I don't know what the fuzz is.
They will keep kicking the can down the road UNTIL they can't !!!
And WOE that day!!!
This is the best idea since sliced bread.
Who'd'a thunk. Shut down the government. Gosh.
Time for Nobel Peace Prizes!
PS For those not in the know, when the Feds are shut down, most all of it still works. Don't fucking kid yourselves. They just close off scenic roads so you can't see Mt Rushmore, go to Yellowstone, no Parades or White House Tours. Y'all think the NSA shuts down they Utah data center?
LOL
Another Exercise in Kabuki Theater
Oh and PSS Guess what'll happen with Border Control. Lookatem all comin' in like rats, Ma! They ain't got money a stop 'em! Damn Conservatives!
Is a Government Shutdown a 'Good' Thing?
You bet!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFw-yXUHTLg
Yes, shut it down. We don't need 80% of it anyway.
Keep it shut down.
And...
This is how it should be.
Well, if payroll employees were to take that time off as well, it might become clear just WHO is paying that retro.
A nationwide work strike. The French do it. It DOES get their attention. The money-stream from payroll deductions dries up overnight, and by a huge amount.
The government should be “shut down” for all the right reasons but it won’t be for all the wrong reasons.
Team D will fight it tooth and nail, but come back later taking credit for the cost savings.
Bullish for paid vacations for fedgov employees
Anyone with any decency WANTS the fedgov the shut down....forever. It is just a gang of criminal parasites.
Anyone with any decency WANTS the fedgov to shut down....forever. It is just a gang of criminal parasites.
Bullshittish
Maybe Maxine Waters can give us her valued opinion?
She can't even hook her own bra, FFS.
Maxine will have a tough opponent in the next election:
http://media.kohlsimg.com/is/image/kohls/1847001?wid=500&hei=500&op_shar...
nails,coffins,collaspes....there's a theme here.
Please shutdown, you a-holes!
Because dying is too much to ask for.
This is either another fake drama for the goyim or it's a staged event so they can blame the collapse on the government instead of the banks.
Anyone wanna take bets?
Yep! It's all Scripted False Narratives, PsyOp & Propaganda the Sheeple will eat up, get brained washed / Mind Controlled & don't even know it's being done to them.
The Art of PsyOp is exactly just that, an Art.
Actually, it's now part of the law of the land:
http://alt-market.com/articles/2699-obama-authorizes-behavioral-experime...
Veriton's link at the top is interesting, too.
A new distraction is needed now that the shemitah nonsense has passed.
It ends on the 23rd of Sept, in the evening... so, buckle up!!!!!
(i don't think shit is going to happen...)
The 23rd has come and gone. As expected, nothing happened.
Once again, who cares? Bunch of psychopaths getting nervous because they are once again on the brink of revealing just how useless and evil they really are.
Why no articles about the british PM trying to get oral from a dead pig? Seems like that would be right up ZH's alley...
And govt workers will get paid for no work....perfect
So pretty much a normal workday then?
I represent that. (As I type from my gov job)
like sands through the hourglass...haven't I seen this show before?
Oh NO! They'll close some parks, essential services will continue, and all the benefit checks will keep going out. YAWN.
....remember the dead soldiers being flown home by charities or at the families expense last time round thats about when I lost all respect for these bastards
Despite all of the propaganda, the US treats it's soldiers poorly, and it's veterans like dirt. I'm amazed that they can still convince people to enlist.
They train and arm 'em, then piss 'em off. That will backfire badly one day.
My dad who is a very proud retired Marine (24 years...Nam....AA) talked me out of joining after high school. Said I needed to have my ass kicked but that the military was no longer worth joining up. I have great respect for our soldiers and vets but do question their treatment and why they would sign up these days. If my son wanted to join of his own choosing I would not stop him but I certainly don't encourage him either. Sad state of affairs.
"Oh NO! They'll close some parks"
Sally Jewel, the mean looking woman with the clipped butch haircut who was appointed by Obama to head the Interior Department, is already working on plans to shut down all national parks and memorials if Congress doesn't pass a continuing resolution by Sept. 30.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/interior-department-government-shutd...
Yep, once again going for max pain for the park tourists and those whose livelihoods depend on the parks for maximum media-driven propaganda impact.
lock, meet bolt cutters.
Time for Bitch McConnell and John Boner to bend over and take it like good little whores (as usual)!!!
#LetItBurn!
We should hope for a sinkhole the size of the beltway to open up and swallow DC whole..
A dysfunctional congress is not a bug, its a feature. It's just too damned bad that they'll come up with a bad fix instead of just walking away.......
meh.
there will be no government shutdown.
1. mcconnel and boehner don't have the balls to do it
2. the republicans are too scared to get blammed for another shutdown and risk losing the presidency and/or senate/house seats
the "right" thing to do would be for BOTH parties to come out and tell the amerian people THE TRUTH about the national debt and how its going to COMPLETELY fuck those at the lower & middle end THE WORST if & when this thing blows. STOP the deficit spending, make sequester-type cuts across the board, get to a balanced budget, and if need be hell id even default on the existing debt now + an add-in to the consititution visa-vi an ammendment where we NO LONGER EVER BORROW $$$ NO MATTER HOW BAD IT GETS ... if individuals wanna spend themsevles into bankruptcy, go nuts! so-long as a credit card agency is willing to take the chance, thats on them. i seem to remember reading a little something about no taxation without representation. to that end, i feel like (as chris rock once said) "you don't pay taxes, they take taxes" and i don't get 1. a say where the tax reciepts go 2. nor do i get a say on the over-spending they do.
They, both parties that is, will never do that because it would require them to give up their power and their personal wealth creation machine called crony capitalism.
I keep hearing about these "two" parties but still can't tell the difference...
First of all, there has NOT been a REAL shutdown. the language has been hijacked. In fact, what happend last time was a two week paid vacation.
fuck em.
You mean come clean like the Soviet Union....Somehow, I doubt thats what the U.S. gobamint has in mind.
Eat those babies: "Every time you purchase mass-produced processed “food” from the likes of Kraft, PepsiCo, or Nestle, you’re choosing, whether you realize it or not, to feed your family not only genetically engineered poisons and chemical additives, but also various flavoring agents manufactured using the tissue of aborted human babies." http://www.realfarmacy.com/popular-foods-aborted-fetal-cells/
It's so sick that most people refuse to even think about it, much less believe it. Pure EVIL. ANYTHING for a dollar...
...especially if that dollar goes to buy something that shortens your lifespan, and THEY make a profit on it.
Because uncovering for themselves what those ‘extraordinary measures' entail would never give the GOP ammunition for an Obama impeachment.
Nothing to see here, move along please.
Dem programs, dawg!
shut it down... burn it down
Absolutely, peaceful Non- Compliance, Non- Participation into their Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES, CORP. INC system of Dbt Bondage & Enslavement.
Pack a Gun, pay No Fraud Tax & revert back into a Constitutional Republice which has always stood.
For the last fucking time. It's not a functional "Government.." It's a Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES, CORP. INC. posing, lying & deceiving you into thinking it's a Government.
Take back your language. It's a Private Corporate Entity for FUCKS SAKE!!
Run by a Criminal Fraud CEO aka "President" & Board of Trustees aka "CONgress" via The Emergency Banking Act of 1933.
Take back you language. It's been perverted by PsyOp.
Great points & true!
If only Radical Marijuana could say these same things with such brevity!
every cock sucker in the US government should be FIRED
what if they don't suck? what then?
then they can keep riding their unicorns up and down the rainbow
Just say everyone that sucks Obama's cock. That's all of them
Oh Gawd, this drama again?
The government will not shut down; they are not about to cut themselves off from the feeding trough with so much slop to gobble up.
Every one rush out and see the National Parks, we don't get to see our land if the ass clowns don't agree.
The last time this happened I suggested every American gather up those orange cones and pitch them over the White House fence.
There is a distinct probability we could bury the entire administration alive in a huge mountain of orange.
orange is the new black
Maybe we the people can shut it down PERMANENTLY...!
Bullshit, is this going to be a REAL shutdown or just another two week paid vacation?
Your thinking is all wrong on this. Its 52 weeks of paid vacation per year, just no transportation costs involved for these two particular weeks...
Government shutdown you say? That's cause for celebration.
Unpossible! They didn't say nothin' about no goverment shut down on the news.
What we do know for certain is that Boehner will give in. He is already unfolding the white flag.
Boehner is an enema bag
Shut it down and bury it.
No gov't shut down. With exception of a dozen or two in Congress and the Senate the other several hundred in both houses won't defund gov't /taxpayer support of the death factories known as Planned Parenthood clinics. Can't wash your hands of this people, you either come down on the side of life or you are part of the vast death cult that has consumed our nation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gianna_Jessen
Oh and for those of you have bought the lie spewed by the Whitehouse, Hillary, Hollywood, Media and Planned Parenthood...
An investigation of 30 Planned Parenthood clinics in 27 different states, conducted by the pro-life group Live Action, confirmed that the abortion provider does not perform breast-cancer screenings. “We don’t provide those services whatsoever,” a staffer at Planned Parenthood of Arizona confessed on tape. Planned Parenthood’s Comprehensive Health Center clinic in Overland Park, Kan., admitted: “We actually don’t have a, um, mammogram machine at our clinics.” Even the liberal Washington Post doled out a three (out of four) Pinocchio rating for the White House’s mammogram lies. “The problem here is that Planned Parenthood does not perform mammograms or even possess the necessary equipment to do so,” the paper’s resident fact-checker reported. “As such, the organization certainly does not ‘provide’ mammograms in the strict sense. Instead, its clinics provide referrals and direct low-income women toward resources to help pay for the procedure. These services are by no means unique to Planned Parenthood. In fact, the Susan G. Komen Foundation and the American Cancer Society provide them, as well.”
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/planned%20parenthoods-mammogram-lie-
I'd be very cautious about anything about Planned Parenthood coming from a group like "Live Action."
I know at least 2 dozen women who got all their breast and cervical exams, and birth control ("The Pill," Diaphragms, etc.) at Planned Parenthood from their teens until at least their late twenties when they finally started getting jobs that provided Health Insurance. I have no idea if any of them got abortions at Planned Parenthood but I highly doubt any of them did.
If I saw any "Pro-Life" people or groups trying to get medical exams and contraception to the millions of American women now using Planned Parenthood, then I'd have some respect for them. Crickets. They aren't opposed to abortion at all, if they won't address women's health and contraception. And they don't. So obviously they don't care about abortion, except as a very profitable wedge issue.
Let's see "Live Action" and the various James O'Keefe wannabe film collage fabricators put their efforts to replacing what Planned Parenthood really does for the overwhelming majority of women who use their services, and then maybe I'll give their grievances a hearing.
Anyone can obtain contraceptives at the supermarket. They're called condoms. Your argument fails.
Leftist lunatic. Pay for your murder with your own money. Get your filthy bloody hands outta my pockets.
That's like saying that Aaron Hernandez is a good guy because he didn't murder the vast majority of people he met.
GOVT shutdown quiz time......
Does anyone remember what "gold" did the day the USG shut down several years ago?
I do, down $40+
One of the greatest "everything is awesome" smashes in history
Shut the fucker down for good. Name one thing Fed Gov does well
What a joke.
How many times did Obama cross the debt ceiling since he is in office?
How much did the US debt rise?
And nobody does anything about it...
America is done with. Over and out.
I pray they DO shutdown after yapping and squealing over Planned Parenthood. And then I hope something HUGE hits the fan the next day, with all of them 'on strike' and congratulating themselves for being such great Americans.
The more you observe politics, the more you've got to admit that each party is worse than the other.
Will Rogers
Shutting the federal government down is a bad thing?
Time's up!
You're all sinners and you'll all burn in HELL
“Elmer Gantry never knew who set him thirty dimes, wrapped in a tract about holiness, not why. But he found the sentiments in the tract useful in his sermon, and the thirty dimes he spent for lovely photographs of burlesque ladies.”
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/82/Elmer_Gantry_poster.jpg
Speak for yourself, mother fucker.
This is built for Obama to blame the up and coming recession on the government shutdown and virtually anything else this con man can come up with that goes wrong on conservatives.
Once there's another so-called "shut-down"... I give the GOP about a day before their usual bowing to every single one of Obama's demands this time.
I give them 1 minute before their usual blaming of Obama at this time.
We give you 1 minute before you go back to sucking your boyfriend's dick.
GOP thinks it's Obama's fault, Obama thinks it's the GOP's fault.... In this case, they're both right.
I give them 5 minutes before Obama cums in their mouths.
Keep the sewer sytem closed!
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/175-days-treasury-...
Do they need a deal when they can just freeze the debt.
You just have to change the bankruptcy act.Put income taxes underneath it,that way anybody who owes doesn't have to pay government thieves.
This country is broke and BROKEN on every level! It's an absolute disgrace!
Shut it down and never open it up again until we clean house and restore the constitution and the bill of rights! And first and foremost, ending the Fed and trying every one of them for treason and crimes against humanity!
AR, your sentences are way too long. "Shut it down and never open it up again" works for me.
OOOOH no they will put up them temporary fences again - the horror - lets bow down and respect them fences
Governments do not need money. Why would they ever have a shortage of something they can create out of thin air on a whim?
Remove taxes just print all the cash you need.
Stop pretending USA needs cash from taxes. Country will run fine without anyony working. Who needs works, or resources, just print all, and buy from slaves in China or Africa. They will be happy with green Federal Reserve Note.
Send CONgress home. Send the Military home. Send Obomber hone. Send the NSA, CIA, DIA, FBI etc. home. Send every single federal department home.
Then lets try to restart it and do it right.
there wasn't a budget the first 5 yrs. of Obamas presidency, what's the problem, 2016 campaigns.
I'm no constitutional lawyer , but I don't think the govt. can shutdown the govt..
solve the problem just like American businesses do. fire 20% of the employees, offer 20% early buy-outs, decrease the remainders salary by 25%.
like I said I'm no lawyer but doesn't the treasury have a few trillion laying idle, and supposedly 8,000 tons of gold, but I'm not sure that any of it belongs to Americans.
from the 16 amendment, giving international bankers the last say on Americas monetary policy.
when america went bankrupt in 1933, those international bankers our creditors took over all Americas assets, and appointed the secretary of the treasury, the governor of america, the highest authority in america, he was the only person in america who could hand out pre- authorized money from the international bankers on who got money, and govt. agencies and employees were drastically cut.
for these loans from these international bankers to keep govt. going congress gave as collatal americans sovergnty, and national parks, birth- certificates, among other things, PLEASE look it up.
the way it looks to me, these international bankers are the only ones that can call Americas debt, into default.
you must read Americas bankruptcy 1933,
AM Jurisprudence 2d Volume 16, 16A, 16B under emergency powers: THEY CAN NOT SUSPEND THE CONSTITUTION.
Martial Law is when the people call to arms and UPHOLD the constitution. We are the militia: If you are WILLING to pick up a firearm and defend yours and your neighbors rights then YOU are part of the Militia. The consolidation of power over the Militia is when CONGRESS declares war and the intent of that is in Federalist paper No.4 and No.5...intent of law is important.
Notice how the media calls it "Modern" martial law; this is a LIE! It is fraud on the people and fiction of law.