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Exodus 8:2
We may be through with the past, but the past isn't through with us.
I'm a big fan of history, and although I'm not a trained historian, I wrote a book about history through the lens of financial markets called Panic, Prosperity, and Progress (which has 22 reviews on Amazon, averaging 4.9 out of 5 stars...........so it can't be that terrible). As part of this, I enjoy thinking of the arcs of history, particularly financial history, and anticipating where we might be going. This post is just such an exercise.
I will say at the outset it is hazardous to get too caught up in narratives. The one offered by our friends in Gainesville in 2009 was along the lines of "the market will fight its way back to about 950 on the S&P 500........1,000 at the most.......and then begin its final descent to its low of 400." I don't have to tell you things didn't pan out quite that way. However, my musings here aren't based on Elliott Wave, indicators, or anything except my own vague projections about where we are heading financially and politically.
I think between now and the end of next year, we're going to see something along these lines:
Beat the Crash: sometime before the end of October, we're going to take out the so-called "crash" lows of August 24th. How low this is remains to be seen, although I'll be satisfied if it's even modestly lower. I did this post on the 20th of this month projecting what these lows might be, and most folks thought I wasn't being bearish enough. They may be right. In fact, as I'm sitting here right now looking at that post, it would make a lot more sense to have a serious breach of the August 24 lows, considering the "next step" I'm going to lay out. Let's just agree that the drop would be serious enough to become persistent headline news and, dare I say it, cause Gartman to declare an all-out bear market.
Yellen's Last Hurrah: at this point, Janet "the antichrist" Yellen will have license to do Whatever The Hell She Wants to "fix" things. This will be her last free pass to do so. None of us can know what form this salvation will take (negative interest rates? QE4? the threat of a nude Yellen sex tape unless the market rallies?) but, whatever the form, it will, in fact, cause the markets to rally more strongly and firmly then they did between the August 24 crash and the September 17 FOMC top.
The Stall: while it will seem that Yellen's latest gambit has worked (but we know better, right?) the equity markets will cease their ascent. My guess is that this stall will be at the approximate price levels of the August 24 lows. Let me say that again: even after another ridiculous government program, I think the best equity prices are going to muster are going to be not much different than the "panic lows" of August 24th. Once equity prices stop obeying Yellen's desire for them to go higher, people are going to start to worry. And then........
All Holy Hell Breaks Loose (during a big election year, no less): this is where the real fun begins. What's particularly interesting about this phase is that it will be right in the thick of the U.S. Presidential Election Cycle which should make things, errr, interesting.
A Surprising Choice: November 8th, 2016 is the big day, and I put it to you that the person elected president is going to be a surprise (at least to those speculating about it right now). The tumult of 2016 is going to compel people to want, yet again, "change", and that could come in the form of Bernie Sanders (in case the nation's mood wants to punish the rich) or Donald Trump (in case the nation's mood instead actually buys the notion he can make the country "great" again). It won't be boring-as-milquetoast Joe Biden or the-only-thing-special-is-that-she-lacks-a-penis Hillary Clinton. The status quo is going to be very "out" in the world of political fashion.
So there we have it: my wild-ass guess for the next 14 months. Let's see how it goes.
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Always enjoy your posts Tim. Frequently lurking at the Slope as well. Been bookmarked since 2008-ish (can't recall exactly... my memory stinks).
Timmy cant wait for everything to collapse. Being right is more important to him than mankind. He has been shorting this bull market for 7 years. Wait untill the SPY doubles by 2023. The only book Timmy wrote that is worth anything. Is the Slope bathroom reader. It offers some nice toilet paper.
Timmy cant wait for everything to collapse. Being right is more important to him than mankind. He has been shorting this bull market for 7 years. Wait untill the SPY doubles by 2023. The only book Timmy wrote that is worth anything. Is the Slope bathroom reader. It offers some nice toilet paper.
How much in UST does the FED own and what kind of a hit will it's balance sheet take if they raise rates?
I got out of the casino at the end of February, so I've been fine, but I'm 100% back in instantly if it means that thing won't release a sex tape.
Wait, too late, it's already out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2QkBFMjlag
Even with the curiosity of a litter of kittens or later on when they are adult cats, i am still frightened SO badly that i will not click that link. The fear of an image that cannot be washed from the mind, no matter what you pour on top of it, will keep me from "the thing" on a tape.
It is south park, but I still suggest not clicking on it.
I couldn't help myself.
Was very disturbing. lol.
When is Yellen's last hurrah?
I've been hearing about the last hurrah for about 800 years now.
That is UNtrue !
… she couldn’t be any older than around 100.
Exodus 8:5-8 And the LORD spake unto Moses, say unto Aaron, stretch forth thine hand with thy rod over the streams, over the rivers, and over the ponds, and cause frogs to come up upon the land of Egypt. And Aaron stretched out his hand over the waters of Egypt; and the frogs came up, and covered the land of Egypt. And the magicians did so with their enchantments, and brought up frogs upon the land of Egypt.
This verse provides overwhelming evidence and irrefutable proof: Pharaoh was a fraud, and didn't deserve his seat of power. How could he not at least have known to use Expelliarmus! to disarm Aaron of his wand? Or Finite Incantatem!, which is kinda like You're it! Quitsies, no anti-quitsies, no startsies! Or how about Fera Verto!, and zing!, now instead of a frog infestation, his palace is stacked ceiling-high with chilled water goblets -- ideally catered refreshment in that grueling Egyptian heat, one would think. If he'd had a sense of humor, Pharaoh could have followed with Accio Aguamenti!, hosing Aaron down with water straight from the Nile... and from the tip of the bastard's own rod to boot! Hah!
But let's be real, folks. Pharaoh was a serious man (or god, or god-man... whatever), and if only he'd not been so outmoded with his war planning, one could see him setting results-oriented, no-nonsense directives within his tactical sorcery deparment. He likely would have just busted out the big guns on the Hebrew god's whole pack of earth-plane actioneers. Confringo! and boom, Aaron's body parts are strewn across the sands like a dismembered Amalekite (oh wait, that's not till the middle of Exodus... sorry, I should have put up a SPOILER tag). And there's always the classic Crucio!, which can produce death, but makes a fine point in the process. Or if he was just wanting to get back to his day he could have just gone Avada Kedavra! and been done with it.
The point is, I'm not impressed with Pharaoh as this arch villain, and it's hard to get the sense of him as this awe-inspiring imperial authority after he so readily cowered and quaked under the prospect of a large-scale amphibicidal house-cleaning. I think he was overrated, and his inability to deal with the great frog plague reveals that he did not grasp the magnitude of a threat that had been gathering over a considerable period of time. This was a failure of policy, management, capability, and, above all, a failure of imagination.
Err, it wasn't the frogs that convinced him. Read it again some time. Till then:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXWq3f01e2U
God created the Universe. And he is quite capable of hacking the Universe. He has all the cheat codes. And more. Our miniscule understanding has zero effect on his power.
But I understand the confusion.
How could this possibly be true?
How indeed.
When the fan blades are dripping, the voting public will demand moar government. Either a strong man or a socialist. They will do anything but support any system that does not promise them moar bread and circuses.
STOP WATCHING THE STOCK MARKET!! The real tell is the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond. Also keep an eye on the Yen/US dollar. Everything else is just noise.
One might want to watch the 30 Year as well. It's just 5 bps shy of 3%.
I am totally with you on the 10-year, and also stop watching the price of gold. The price of silver is much more important, and, I believe, the key to the entire global economy.
With gold:silver ratio at 76:1 or thereabout, the bankers have succeeded in defrauding the entire world into thinking gold is what you should hoard, when in fact, it is silver that has served as the currency of the common man for centuries.
I'd like to see the 10-year at 0.75 and silver at $70-95. That would be 12:1 to 16:1 if gold did not budge one dollar, but, I;ll take higher if they want to push gold up again. Gotta have hope!
I did enjoy this: "threat of a nude Yellen sex tape unless the market rallies"
I think we're not far from that.
Give the guy some credit at least he put some dates on his predictions...
"Although the imagery of that verse is accurate for the current unfolding, the Exodus is a myth that never happened. Most students of history already know this."
You book smart history students should get out on a few more field trips.
http://www.ronwyatt.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeX966OVxwU
I see that the homeschooled brigade has shown up. Quality.
revisionist history much?
God is always getting mad, smite-ing things.
"Antichrist"?
I thought Yellen's code name was "Pleasure Kitten"?
The usual script would be 1) crash 2) Fed response..buy everything with any perceived value at 100%, 3) procede to a hyperinflationary collapse.
When a system goes from hard money (gold) to weak money (fiat) the masses can riot for easier money. When the government has destroyed an easy money currency like we have now, the masses just have to settle for a new hard maney system. The government won't be able to help.
Either way there is death. In the first instance heads roll. In the latter people just quietly starve.
We will get the latter.
Starving will be marketed as fashionable, and people will line up in droves to starve.
/s (no, not really)
Name it "iStarve" and they will do.
And you think the heroin addict supermodels look skinny now, wait till you see the ones going down the NY fashion runways in burlap bags and sack cloth.
Although the imagery of that verse is accurate for the current unfolding, the Exodus is a myth that never happened. Most students of history already know this.
You'd better go back and read the first history text.
https://www.google.com/search?q=red+sea+exodus+evidence&biw=1366&bih=588&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0CBwQsARqFQoTCIa43_26jMgCFYKsHgodrX8N3Q
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/08/no-really-there-is-a-scientific-explanation-for-the-parting-of-the-red-sea-in-exodus/
https://books.google.com/books?id=6Ileeam5iOYC
James K. Hoffmeier of the Trinity Evangelical Divinity School. Yeah.... no bias there then. Real archeologists have before and since that work of fiction was written debunked the myth over and over again.
As long as you don't expound on your moral beliefs, (arb)whore, I don't really care what you write.
1Then the LORD said to Moses, "Go to Pharaoh and say to him, 'Thus says the LORD, "Let My people go, that they may serve Me. 2"But if you refuse to let them go, behold, I will smite your whole territory with frogs. 3"The Nile will swarm with frogs, which will come up and go into your house and into your bedroom and on your bed, and into the houses of your servants and on your people, and into your ovens and into your kneading bowls.…
Smiting with frogs! What a novel punishment. Like being attacked by smurfs I guess. But would the French consider it a smiting? Perhaps not. Perhaps it would be a roundup. "Round up all those frogs and off with their legs."
Leave it to Hebrews to think up an attack by frogs.
Frogs into my kneading bowl and oven?? Oh well, taste like chicken from what I hear.
Actually, they taste more like rattlesnake than chicken.
Kind of a flavor cross between catfish and chicken actually.
My recollection was that there were a lot of things that followed the frogs. They didn't wait 14 months to roll around so I'm guessing that Yellen rally doesn't rally and the election thing gets postponed a bit until 'things settle down'. Well matbe more than a bit if they're really going to wait for things to settle down. But hey, I'm a bit paranoid.