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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapses, Workweek Crashes To 6 Year Lows
Following August's collapse (from 13 to 0), September's Richmond Fed followed on the heels of Philly, Empire, and Dallas Fed surveys and collapsed to -5 - its lowest since January 2013. Under the covers it is a total disaster, the average workweek crashed from 3 to -12 - the lowest level since April 2009 (as did the order backlog). New Orders and Capacity Utilization also plunged to its lowest since Jan 2013 as clearly the inventory accumulation is starting to feedback into prodiction cuts. Combined, the regional surveys suggest a notable plunge in overall ISM in September... flashing bright red recession warnings.
Headline collapse...
Complete carnage under the covers...
And this...
- Order Backlogs at lowest since April 2009
- New Orders weakest since Jan 2013
- Capacity Utliization lowest since Jan 2013
Following weakness in Empire, and Philly Fed surveys, this suggests September ISM will be notably below the crucial '50' level.
h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer
Charts: Bloomberg
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The Fed-fad is fucking fizzling. Finally! ;-)
Looney
The job situation is even worse at the New York Daily News newspaper, where owner Mort Zuckerman is firing everything that breathes. Are these firings a prelude toward his dumping the paper, just shutting it down? Or is the reason personal, as in bad news from Zuckerman's personal physician on the state of Mort's health? We will know soon enough.
http://nypost.com/2015/09/21/daily-news-continues-staff-slaughter-with-n...
This is "real" stuff, work hours, utilization etc., it matters. The fluffy Fed guess work, not so much.
Yes the real stuff.
THis is what I like to hear about, new factories, production, sales, job losses, factories closing. The real stuff. Not some economist predicting higher or lower interest rates or GDP.
Not fizzling, flaming out. This is just the leading edge of things to come and all those heavily over-leveraged companies are heading down the toilet......
Oh oh, all those landlords here on ZH are going to have a hard time finding renters, and then when they can't find quality renters, they will have a hard time finding buyers. Whoopsy.
We are all Renters.......sadly......
The Obama Depression rears its ugly head again...
His 'cache' peaked this summer. All 'downhill' from here...
You sure this isn't the Woodrow Depression still raging on?
Why is there so little green in 2004-2006 for the Richmond workweek data? After all, we had record levels of employment and very low unemployment during that period.
Tell this to the DC housing market. Shit is still very 2006ish here. Prices coming down but not nearly as quick as they went up this year.
DC is a tapeworm. They may never see a downturn.
This means that rates should remain at zero should HFTs should buy.
This means that rates should reamin at zero and the USDJPY should fall so HFTs should sell.
What is an HFT to do?
Good god, "Since Lehmans??"
They better get that war started soon or Obama is going to leave office with the same disgrace as Bush "markets" collapsing on his way out the door.
I've got that 2001, 2008 feeling...
we're due
6 years 1 month between end of 2001 recession and beginning of last one.
Current "recovery" is 6 years 3 months
tick tock tick tock
ESPN to lay off 200 to 300 people per local espn radio this morning
back in july disney told ESPN to cut $100 million out of 2016 budget ... and $250 million out of 2017 budget
these layoffs the tip of the iceberg
QE4 bitches. We are all turning Japanese. Would love to see what happens if Abe got Asanuma-ted by some disgruntled youth and a tight spincter was put in his position
So no October liftoff... but December... yeah.... December for sure...
...just around the corner....
buy S&P and AAPL
Richmond, eh? Isn't the VW manufacturing plant covered in this survey?
Continental, Stihl, and others may be laying off, to, or soon will be doing so.
These so called economists use every marketing trick in the book to bamboozle us.
I challenge you to do the following:
Calculate the rate of job growth by county where you live over the last twelve months on a per month basis.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/
You can find your state data at that site. Divide the jobs added over the last twelve months by 12(for you Common Core students) and then divide by the number of counties your state has.
Now do those numbers look impressive?
For those in Georgia I have done the math.
43.5 jobs per county per month. Wow! Feel the economic boom? 1.5 jobs per county per day.
Not hardly.
Now think about the superlatives we keep hearing to describe our economy. Draw your own conclusion at this point.
I have.
The EU is selling off pretty good today.
Definitely agree with the premise of this article, and the forecast of an iminent plunge in ISM might very well be accurate. But, the graph of Philly Fed vs ISM doesn't support your thesis that well. In 2011, the Philly Fed survey dip was followed by ISM only after a pretty significant lag. Hard to tell from the graph, but maybe a year or so before ISM dipped below 50%. Timing, as they say, is everything.
In terms of data accuracy, I would expect Fed-generated data to be worse than private sector in the near term. Bad news provides cover for any upcoming Fed actions, from rate decisions all the way up to QE4.