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Time For An Emergency Rate Hike? Stocks Slammed Down 4% From Post-Yellen Peak
Re-unleash The Bullard...
And the Nasdaq is nearly red for 2015...
and all of yesterday's spike in bond yields has been rallied away...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Cramer wants lower rates for longer even if it is unsavoury
Oh oh, all those landlords here on ZH are going to have a hard time finding renters, and then when they can't find quality renters, they will have a hard time finding buyers. Whoopsy.
Nah. plenty of section 8 coming their way. Dot.gov is working OT to get as many FSA-ers on the take as possible. If you can't find a real renter, there's always a government scammer to occupy that space. And, dot.gov pays on time from a very deep pocket. not like any of those losers that miss a month or make a partial payment. of course, you just have to deal with your property becoming a crack house or a meth lab, or a pimp flat.
I said quality.
Is that 'Free Shit Army'-ers or 'Free Syrian Army'-ers? Both seem to be on the rise in the USSA.
Man, I'd really hate to be a bag holder right now, i.e, real estate investor, landlord, someone who recently purchased a home in say the last 2-6 years. Ouch.
Hardly...they can't raise rates even .25%.
What this means is QEternity is right around the corner.
It's all they can do now until they destroy all fiat and reset the monetary system to who knows what.
I doubt QE4 is right around the corner. Not because it isn't needed (they should have started it at the last meeting instead of talking about hiking rates), but now that they're verbally locked into the whole "economy is getting better, expect rates to go up shortly" meme they've been peddling for more than a year it's going to take them WAY too long to backtrack without looking like the complete idiots they are. And they NEVER want to look like complete idiots.
Expect shit to crumble pretty badly before they respond with a "full reverse" command to the engine room.
You can thank Bernanke for starting the whole "transparency" thing at the Fed. They were always idiots but now they open their mouths on a regular basis and prove it to the world. Would have been better they stayed a "black box" from which policy decisions issue forth without explanation. At least then the gullible could always believe "well, they're smart people, they must know what they're doing." Nothing like that to hide behind any more. Full-frontal stupidity from here out.
"When somebody wonders if you're a complete idiot it's better to keep your mouth shut than to open it and remove all doubt."
- Granny NoDebt
well don't forget that QE never really ended after QE3. They have continued with stealth QE all along. And even during QE3 they were monetizing a whole lot more than they were letting on.
The Belgium deal ending up with over 300 Billion in Treasuries was stealth QE. And the they also use the interest on the shit they currently hold and turn it around to use as stealth QE to cover more buying.
This is why they can't raise rates even a fraction of a point. It would implode hundred of Trillions of interest based derivatives. Some say over a Quadrillion worth of them.
All they can do is continue to extend and pretend...limp this market into 2016, push the world right to the edge of catastrophy again, probably by blaming everything on China and Russia, and then either forcing hundreds of Trillions in more QE or starting WWIII.
That's just my guess...right up to election time. It's going to be a nasty roller coaster ride over the next 12 months.
Teh we even sold some Bitcoin today to get more short this market. We can smell blood, and tomorrow being teh 23rd of Sept and all....
"some say over a Quadrillion..."
see the info on Exchange-traded and OTC derivatives from the BIS who splits the reporting-- at URL
http://www.bis.org/statistics/about_derivatives_stats.htm?m=6|32
Wasn't that Ben Franklin?
My grandmother was probably old enough to know him personally.
"Expect shit to crumble pretty badly before they respond with a "full reverse" command to the engine room."
Wow, classic, seriously, you win for best comment of the year.
Edit: years
Since at least WWII, the Fed interest rate policy adjustments has simply followed the changes in the core US population of 15-64yr/olds. This core population growth will continue to decelerate for at least another decade...and interest rate hikes into this deceleration representing declining growth just aren't credible. In fact the model clearly show further rate cuts (NIRP?) or more QE are on their way.
Not opinions or theory...just fact with clear evidence in the link.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3522366-demographics-the-real-opponent-the-fed-has-been-fighting-for-decades
Yup, "quality".
When everyone is forced into rent, landlords get to find out what a total nightmare it is to be a landlord.
BTFC(hasm)?
It's very cowardly to criticize other investors without stating what you are invested in as a superior bet. Otherwise you're just a big mouth piece of shit.
lead, pm's, cash, bugout location, alternative liveable domicile
Same as me, minus the lead. I sold my last piece of real estate 11 years ago. Personally I think real estate is about to crash hard but that's just an opinion.
Housing real estate. The arable land market is chumming along.
Food, Water, Physical PMs, Tools, Portable Foundry, Physical Scrap Base Metals, and Refining Chemicals.
There will always be a need for spare parts. If I can carve it then I can cast it.
BTW...Lead Pea Shooters do not work against armored vehicles.
Why be involved in a "Market" when Cede and Company owns everything which you thought that you own...if it is on paper?
Skip the prepper shit and just move to Alaska. Tons of places to live where there are no roads in/out and you only get there by boat or by plane, isolated power grid, etc. Lots of places in the south east of the state. And if you are worth a pinch of coon shit as far as skills go, you can find work.
It's what I did. :-)
Regards,
Cooter
I like Texas and Texans too much. I like the odds here and the numbers.
Too damn cold in Alaska and rural Texas is a very good place to be no matter the situation. Well, except for refinery row on the channel.
Who the fuck down voted Texas. You are one stupid ass, son-of-a-bitch. Wherever you be, stay there. Texas neither needs nor wants your sorry type. You would fail to survive anyway. We WORK here.
Putz
Then wake early in the morning and inhale deeply the radiocative effluent from Fuki. And think 'God I love nature'
We are all renters.......sadly....
Rate hike? We need a few market self-help breaks, and then a QE4 leak.
I giggled at "re-unleash the Bullard". Love ZH sarc sometimes!
Regards,
Cooter
Theft is unsavoury, as is printing money out of thin air and giving it to the Banks.
A question for Cramer is, "How far do we go with "unsavoury"" ? Hopefully it goes on just long enough, so people like you will get their just desserts.
Draghi tomorrow, Yellen Thursday. 2X Bullish verbal interventions.
Then what? I really don't believe they can keep this going forever. The more they talk, the more they look like fucking assholes.
The credibility tipping point is near. When they talk and the market fails to react, we will have reached it.
THat rubicon was crossed last Thursday. It's over.
Took long enough
The PPT is very active on the DJIA this morning.
It ain't over yet. (Yet I really wish it to be...)
We see you.
But we don't feel you...
This decline was expected, wave 5 down to Lower Lows.
http://tripstrading.com/2015/09/19/sp500-weekly-chart-2-or-5/
Your guess is as good as mine.
It really isn't going to matter, too many things are starting to head south and Winter is coming.....
Amazing, and some of the hedge guys are nakedly short.
QE4ever!
Santa Yellen coming out early this year. Using the hell copter any minute now.
And there goes Ag and Au down along with it. Makes sense.
I've been wanting to buy a little more. Anyone out there finding any actual physical silver at less than 30% over spot???
Gainesvillecoins is selling silver rounds for about $1 over spot. Pure silver shot for about 50 cents over.
Unpaid plug.
talk of rate hikes is now on par with talk of grexit
both exposed to be total bullshit and meaningless
Well said Marine.
Why is the dollar going up?
it's all about perspective
the sky is actually falling
Dammit!!! Another coffee snort!!!!
Cutest ugly sister at the dance.
No rate hike before QE 4, but after Yom Kippur.
DAS RAYCISS!
Why is the dollar going up?
ROW circling the drain
cny devaluation leads to ust selling.
Deflationary death spiral. People need dollars to settle debts.
The title makes no sense. This when Yellen goes NIRP.
Pinch me if anything makes sense right now ...
Regards,
Cooter
+25 basis pts): a rate hike would release the dogs of hell. it means they think they are behind the curve. but Yellen was chuckling about the NIRP reference, now she has to put on her serious face. so now really, how do they do it?
I was very sad to hear this morning that Lloyd Blankfein has a "highly curable" form of lymphoma.
He deserves uncurable leprosy, but he's still going to burn in Hell so...
Looks like lightnin'
Blankfein was given lymphoma for screwing up God's work. Arrest him.
Anywheresville, USA
Financial Advisor (to worried sheep): "Don't sell ... blah blah ... Don't Panic ... blah blah ... Dollar Cost Averaging ... blah blah"
Sheep heading down the chute ...
We need Trump now to fix this economy !!
Time for PPT... does anyone know what balance sheet the PPT transactions are supposed to fall under? My guess is nowhere, and that means QE infinity is already here.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/hidden-trillion-qe-monthly-volume
Bitcoin $231.81
my guess is they'll put a par bid under all the bond auctions. with rates going negative the government has to pay people to take these things.
The old saying goes:" When rates are low stocks will grow." So I suppose these days the opposite would hold true.
Blah blah blah the major majority of humans have the attention span of a gnat. The FED and every other CB's credibility was shredded years ago (mark to fantasy), decades ago (Japan) and only a handful of people cared. Lets not forget about the 2% cap on NPL in China. Hahahahaha. Its all bullshit anyways not enough paper in the world to cover everyone's supposed wealth.
Wouldn't it be great to leverage up 10x, 20x and if it doesn't work out just print more to cover your losses. Imagine having $500,000 in cash, loaning out $5,000,000 (fraction reserve lending) at say 6% and making $300,000 a year. The $500,000 is never at risk, bailouts or bailins, heads they, win tails we lose.
Dow is currently like right on the 20 day moving average with about a 500 point margin on either side for the Bollinger Band. This is just as neutral a short-term position as Janet can find after the August spike down. Also just about midway between intraday August spike down and declining 200 day moving average floating up above.
http://schrts.co/KwyGQG
Chill out, and have a happy Yom Kippur.
Rate hike my ass. It's okay for Murican public to go broke, but it is unpossible for Uncle Sugar to go broke. Shalom bitchez.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-22/chart-watchers-zero-in...
Chart-Watchers Zero In on More Warning Signals for U.S. Equities
by Anna-Louise Jackson
September 22, 2015 — 12:00 AM EDT
- Technical analysis patterns suggest further weakness ahead
- Head-and-shoulders, Dow Theory point to shifting trend
Equity investors rattled by last month’s correction, the prospects for the global economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy can add a few more reasons to worry.
Several technical charts are sounding warning signals that the worst of equities turmoil may not be over. So is the market headed toward another selloff? It may depend on how much stock you put into such omens. Some investors see technical analysis as only so much voodoo, claiming past market patterns give no insight into future movements.
The latest signals come after Wall Street early last month was fixated on another chart -- the “death cross,” in which the 50-day moving average of the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below the 200-day average. The two lines crossed on Aug. 11, and less than two weeks later the gauge dropped 10 percent in four days for its first correction since 2011.
With that in mind, here’s what the chartists are seeing in the latest batch of data:
1. A downward sloping neckline in a head-and-shoulders pattern:
The Dow this year has formed “probably the most famous pattern in technical analysis” -- and it’s not particularly encouraging for stock bulls, according to Murray Gunn, head of technical analysis in London at HSBC Holdings Plc.
A so-called head-and-shoulders pattern is a formation comprising two peaks separated by a higher peak. This particular one -- marked by shoulders in March and July and a head in May -- could be “the first crack in the dam” and is special because of the rarity of its downward sloping nature, he wrote in a report Monday.
“It’s a bearish pattern which could be signaling a new bear market trend,” Gunn said in an e-mail. Investors should watch for increasing volumes on down moves in this benchmark index as the next indication that sentiment is becoming more negative, he said.
If the Dow -- which climbed 0.8 percent to 16,510.19 Monday -- were to trade above 18,137, a level last seen in July, that would provide more optimism, he said. Otherwise, “a new long-term and potentially powerful bear market has started; one that should end below the 2009 low.”
That low, on March 9, 2009, was reached after a head-and-shoulders pattern occurred during 2007 and 2008 at the start of the financial crisis, HSBC noted. The date marked the beginning of the current bull market.
2. Dow Theory sell signal
The signal that’s “causing the most angst” for Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James Financial Inc., in St. Petersburg, Florida, is one that happened last month.
When the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to a nearly 10-month low on Aug. 25, two other indexes were below an October 2014 low that many chart watchers were closely monitoring. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average both breached this level, flashing a so-called Dow Theory sell signal. Such a signal occurs when the industrial and transport indexes fall below the low of a previous selloff.
What’s behind this angst? There’s only been one false Dow Theory signal in the last 18 years, Saut wrote in a report Monday, which gives him “cause for pause.” There is reason for optimism, he said, because that one false signal came in May 2010 during the so-called flash crash -- the last time the 30-stock gauge lost 1,000 points intraday, until it happened during the market upheaval in August.
Saut said he hoped this latest signal will prove faulty as well, but that if these two gauges breach their Aug. 25 lows again, this “suggests a change in trend that must at that point be honored.”
Another reason for optimism: the S&P 500 has yet to breach its October 2014 trough. True, that index has nothing to do with Dow Theory, Saut points out -- chartists may want to create a new theory.
fuch the kharts although the manipulators love to paint the tape on the way up, hitting the moving averages like an opera singer hitting the high note, on the bear side of the chart they prefer round numbers in order to defend because they dont want the public getting in on it. the fed calls its friends and the market turns on a dime, a number between resistance moving averages and fibonacci. just to confound you ducklings.
The fundamentals have suddenly changed. Now the markets have a real reason to surge.
The manchurian in cheif recently announced an executive action to abolish the Federal Reserve and re-instate a gold backed currency. The head cop in the land has filed charges against the tbtf banks and ordered all illegals and their anchor babies sent back. Glass-Ste. was re-instated and high frequency trading has been outlawed. Affirmative Action has been repealed. Big pharma has been shut down. Microsoft and Apple have removed all .gov back doors. David Duke, Buchannan, and Ron Paul have been elected back in office. The CIA has admitted to running drug rings, de-stabalizing legitimate govs, and killing whistle blowers. NIST has released information proving that the 'top secret' models they used were BS.
and kim kardashian joined a convent
where is that convention being held?
"post-Yellen peak" - that sounds like an oxymoron.