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Currency Carnage: The Global FX Heatmap Is A Bloodbath
If it was Janet Yellen's intention when deciding not to hike rates to stop the surge of the USD against emerging market currencies in hopes of halting the relentless global capital outflows and the resulting Quantitative Tightning, to avoid a new global currency crisis... she failed.
As of this moment, at least four EM currencies had crashed to record lows against the dollar:
- the Brazilian Real
- the Turkish Lira
- the Mexican Peso
- the South African Rand
Expect many more to follow.
Here is the carnage for the key pairs:
And the heatmap for today:
And over the past 52 weeks:
The biggest embarrassment for the Fed: the global FX carnage is only accelerating and the USD is surging since Yellen "chickened out"
Charts: Bloomberg
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This will irritate the shit out of everyone but I have to say this:
It's...it's...it's SHEMITAAAAHHH TIME!!
Dow broke 16000. Gold being reversed monkey hammered.
(Albeit for just a while...it was fun while it lasted)
Jim Willie has stated for a couple of years that the U.S. Dollar will rise and rise and then disappear...He has stated that it is caused by the fact that derivatives must be settled in U.S. Dollars, so an artificial demand is created...
Willie is entertaining but he is insane...so there is that to consider...
The expected so-called cogent argument from a pseudo-intellectual.
It's not ad hominem if it's true, which in this case it is.
Or if it is not, then at the least he pretends to be insane.
In practice there is no difference.
Motley Fool
It's not ad hominem if you are insane,
or if you believe you are not,
because they are the same in practice.
Willie might be insane, and he certainly sounds that way at times, but his prediction record is amazing. I don't know of a single other newsletter writer who can claim the kind of prediction success he has.
It only seems that way because he makes lots of incredible predictions, many of opposing type.
We humans tend to only remember the ones that came true, whilst ignoring the parts that went wrong.
His actual prediction accuracy is way way worse than you think it is.
Go look at some of his old articles ans see how much of that actually panned out.
This map is actually missing the USDNRN (Nigerian Naira). That is one fooked currency lately.
Yeah but Iceland is kicking ass today I see. Let's jail some more bank fucks!
The DOW has NOT broken 16000 and gold is soaring...Shove your propaganda.
Time to get the cataracts removed Pops.
nope lots of resistance there. PPT trying to "hold the line." Damn salarians.
The number we're waiting on is < 15,666 the August low.
DAX though is looking pretty carnagey. It was 23% down from it's April highs last time I checked and is continuing to slump, or even... Plunge! Germany has little reason to raise atm.
717... The Hajj casualties so far. 7 is a number that surrounds Shemitah.
Pluto direct, more interesting news should be coming out. (But we knew that anyway.)
There has to be a mountain of sell orders at 15666. Can fed prevent a fall to this? It does seem they've finally lost thier Magic. Either way 15666 is a big test for not only the market but if the fed still has powers to prevent a dip to that level.
Perhaps they will come up with something on this UN conference on the coming Monday. (On the blood moon. One of the previous ones being when the AIIB was announced)
15,666 could have been tested by that point though. It's starting out on a pattern of a slow slide similar to the friday before black monday. However, I would not bet on it getting to -500 or even -400!
See I got two dislikes on that one. (Versus one like atm)
Since it is all backed up, perhaps some people don't want to face the truth!?
Yellin or the Fed cannot stop the onslaught from cashing in derivatives, and EM market debt blast. Dollar will rise and then burst like a balloon.
Lonestar - Jim Willie was spot on, with a few others. This is the endgame. I see some industry leaders, like VW and BMW getting hosed. It will be much uglier than even us ZHers thought.
15,916.0 on its low though -250-260 drop on the last count
The world is in a recession, headed for a depression.
If only people in emerging markets had bought gold with their currencies, they would be rich today.
The future is bright for US exports to impoverished emerging markets.
The Canadian dollar hit an eleven year low today.
The Canadian housing market is ready for collapse
Headed for a depression?
Where you been?
Time to celebrate the end of the world with some carnage asada tacos and cheap tequila.
I have been watching this condo since 1997 in Canada. Saw it go from $185,000 to the present whopping price of $1.45 million. I thought it was too expensive at $185,000.
Canada will see a very serious reset to reality.
Still think that a finite biosphere can support unlimited growth?
good luck with that. By the way by GAAP standards we have been in a depression for quite a while already.
Wake the fuck up!
We can always use the last of the cheap oil to make biodiesel and then drill more... oh, wait.
Yes, it can. macroscopic vertebrate life has been doing growth since the Cambrian already (~550 million years), and it's far longer again if you include Ediacaran Fauna. Life has not run out of resources yet, and it won't either, it just fluctuates. Big deal. You want to pretend it shouldn't or mustn't.
If you haven't noticed, humans adapt and change their habitat and possible niches extremely quickly, are totally dynamic, they've mastered chemistry of what matter is, and can make synthetic oils for now, and have an ever growing list of energy options, from literally endless sources. Wallow in dumb-doom all you want, have a little pity party in the mud, we'll all weep for you for at least 10 seconds. Then we'll move on and forget your myopic deranged nonsense completely. :D
Reading comphresion isn't your strong suit is it? Certainly not critcal thinking either. I have no doubt that some humans will do just fine. We certainly are asshat.
"ever growing list of energy options, from literally endless sources." -- LMFAO!!!!!
Yeah that must be why so many people around the world are in FACT starving, what a maroon!!!
thanks for the laugh!!!
Same as it ever was, adapt or die!!!
Yes, you make my point beautifully!!!
Starving is not a factor of Global growth but of resource mis location. We can feed everyone, we just choose not to as a culture and then throw poop at others from our cage of resignation.
I don't think it takes much critical thinking to read your comments only a nose plug, they stink.
LOL!! Well I don't see that massive mis-allocation and mal-investment trend reversing itself anytime soon. Do you?
Please enlighten everyone! Otherwise STFU! Like I said some of us will do just fine, same as it ever was!!!
We should not "feed" r selected trash ie most of the world.
compelling ;-)
funny reading
Thanks, but then again what you or I think is largely irrelevant as that which cannot be sustain, won't be and capital and talent will always go where they are respected, period.
Then why do you whine so? One moment it's all hysteria about the world ending, the next all faux equanimity. Bi-polar much?
Who's whining? just pointing out the obvious hypocrisy, which you clearly seem to have a problem with, otherwise you wouldn't respond or you would actually provide useful insight. Troll much?
Just relax LoP, there is nothing to fear.
The Loonie has also been devalued 20% this year in terms of gold vs the USD.
You want to see some real carnage look at the Brazilian Real and Russian Ruble this year. Gold up well over 60% in both.
"The world is in a recession, headed for a depression."
Agreed. But the R word and D word are strictly not allowed to be uttered by anyone inside the system or by MSM and stats will be hand picked and manipulated to demonstrate that we are all slowly returning to growth.
It would be interesting to guess what event will force TPTB to admit the truth.
The power turning off? A man with a gun taking their organ of propaganda? I know it's overused but it's iraq war one Saddam propoganda minister level of retardation coming from the mainstram.
How's that work? If they could barely afford them then, why now? No this is how the US economy eventually falls. It's the strong dollar that comes home to roost and eats the economy from "exports" out. Remember, economies typically fail through deflation and we're seeing it develop in slow motion.
Still a lot of gray left to shoot for.
Notice Iceland is in the "Green". The rewards of jailing bankers is now becoming obvious.
Yes, imagine the benefit of executing bankers and financiers!!!!
Everyone has got to have a dream. Dream big my friend, dream big.
Dreaming is fucking irrelevant as that which cannot be sustained, won't be. Get your tribe in order and get long sharecropping and guillotines, beat the rush...
Are you serously fomenting executions... I do hope at the very least that you will offer trial by peers before doing so.../?
Again, that which cannot be sustained, won't be period. In 2008/2009 we had the opportunity for major "trials by peers", that time has passed. Look around the world, people are in fact being executed/dying at an increasing rate.
When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law...
same as it ever was, adapt or die motherfucker.
Well duh! .. there was a population explosion to >7 billion ... you realize that an exponentially rising birth rate produces a lagged exponential rising mortality rate, right? What the hell did you expect, hysteria-boy?
So you agree then, that the population will not be growing. Hey now, that isn't very optimistic!
What on earth ever gave you the idea that I'm either an 'optimist', or a 'pessimist'? How infant-like.
Both of your false perception 'choices' about the world are thoroughly neurotic mental impairments.
So, basically you are a troll and have no point. Nor can you provide useful insight one way or the other. Okay, thanks for clarifying that.
Counterpoint.
'Insight' about what? Your tendency to panic and scream endlessly? To make people feel frightened about your imagined neurotic bad-wiring noise?
You know, if you do that in a crowded room, someone is going to walk over and shut you up, one way or another, and require that you compose yourself and or try and take it like a man, or at least act like a man.
Feel better now?
Whatever it is you're doing, imbibing, physically or mentally, in terms of content, moderate it. Hopefully your nervous panic attacks will subside from there.
Again, you have nothing, thanks. I was hoping you might actually have a useful pair-trade or something to share, again you feel compelled to respond troll.
We are doing just fine and as we both agree, some people will continue to do well.
same as it ever was...
You we're not talking trades in either location I responded, you were talking repetitive hysterical pap. ;-)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-24/currency-carnage-global-fx-heat...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-24/currency-carnage-global-fx-heat...
Done here.
Can we jail the Central Bank officials around the world that were partners in this fiasco? Can we jail the government officials that gleefully kept, and keep, spending?
This is a good thing. Inflationary Deflation will subside our Deflationary Inflation! Todays "Markets" rock!
Everything is awesome.
$20 move on gold, by golly its been a while
The shiny has worn off and it's still a giant turd underneath. All the CB's are one trick ponies and the trick isn't working anymore. It's gonna be a long Winter.....
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
http://is.gd/5vle0j
Strategy Snippet
You can have too much of a good thing
The Fed is helping so much it hurts
We have noted that each incremental instance of monetary stimulus has been met with diminishing returns for risk assets. We think further easing, or a lack of tightening, in the U.S. is a negative for stocks. The expectation for Thursday’s FOMC policy decision was a rate hike and dovish commentary, or no hike and hawkish commentary. Instead, the Fed left rates unchanged and delivered a dovish message. In response, the S&P 500 sold off into the close and was down the next day. As we have noted recently, the biggest risk to equities could be another round of QE—suggesting that $4.5tn was not enough to prop up the U.S. economy. Also, the read across for global risk assets could be that significant liquidity provided by central banks may not always be sufficient to drive markets higher.
Tactical delay or real economic deterioration?
Our base case is that the Fed’s lack of action is a tactical delay, and therefore does not impact our outlook. We are maintaining our recently lowered S&P 500 year-end target of 2100. We note that our technical team sees risks to the bull market, and our global quant team’s Global Wave has been declining for the last eight months. Our economists’ real- time indicator of global growth, the GLOBALcycle, softened in August (led by EMs), and we will be closely watching for signs of stabilization or further deterioration.
The Fed on hold = more of the same
The story for the last five years looks set to continue for at least the next few months. With easy monetary policy and a scarcity of growth and value, we would expect to see positive momentum in Growth and Dividend Yield stocks continue. But, given our economists’ expectations for a pick-up in global growth over the next several quarters, buying cheap, unloved cyclicals could start to play out. This would also be true for Energy, which is the ultimate pain trade. Energy has record low valuations, ownership and investor sentiment, and our commodity strategists forecast a year-end rally in oil prices.
Multinationals: intersection of quality & weak dollar beneficiaries
Buying multinationals looks increasingly attractive. These high quality stocks are beaten- down, inexpensive and under-owned by active funds. The companies have produced upside earnings surprises, and the stocks have been outperforming since mid-August, despite the volatility associated with concerns about global growth. The performance of foreign- exposed stocks is now more correlated to moves in the US dollar than at any point in nearly a decade. Dollar strength has been a source of pain for multinationals so far this year, but this could reverse if a dovish Fed exerts more downward pressure on the dollar.
China risks - avoid Materials
With the recent slowdown in China, we are mindful of the risk of a recession. The area most exposed to China is the Materials sector. This sector’s performance is most highly correlated with China’s stock market, as well as with monetary conditions in the region. Metals and Mining looks particularly unattractive given overcapacity in China, and screens as a Value Trap in our work. Health Care is the least correlated with China.
Sophie Cruz false flag. Good for at least 10% rise once Obozo brings in 500,000 Syrian helicopter pilots.
I am glad I wasn't the only one who noticed that blatant bit of propaganda.
Me screaming at the tv "depart her Mayan ass and her father too." The Spanish really blew it with their interbreeding plan.
Good for my beer consumption down here in Colombia..they are only 54 cents now....weeeee
Yes, the Cachaca is cheap in Brazil too...
Must be your round then
Colombia was the best place I visited in south/latin america. Mainly the locals were so damn friendly. And i swear the coffee was so good I thought they were putting crack into it. Along with the eye candy and now the great exchange rate it's worth considering a move.
Btw Narcos is a good show.
Ah yes Columbia, its been on my "must visit" list for awhile now.
Btw, watched Narcos first episode the other night, you're right, good show!!
I'm with you. Moving from Poblado to San Antonio de Pereira better air and even lower cost of living.
What goes up must come down . . . .
Nothing to worry about. If they can freeze the debt, they can freeze the equities and FX markets as well. It is the all knowing all powerful "THEM" after all.
Strengthening demand for the dollar..... need to see if the bond market is getting crowded.
Big oil producers currency falling as oil prices decline - whos suprised by this?
Nope. Think bigger - outside your comfort zone....
oooh! Time to take a tummy tuck vacation in Mexico, or a nice Mediterranean get away in lovely TURKEY!
except gold, this looks like that fed hiked rate more than 0.25. nirp might not help and qe4 might.
The Fed thinks it's God so it will fight any shmeita with unlimited QE,printing and negative rates. PhDs vs God.
its the pope's fault!
The Pope "Evita" should hold a mass in the Washington cathedral .... BHO, being a Muslim .... will pray from the Oval Orifice .... he stashes his prayer rug .... in the Blewinsky Bathroom ?
I'm sure its purely coincidental that almost all the countries in red are Brics members or aligned with them.
sheet happens then u d... or not
Mak'in room for the reset!
According to the maps..looks like Janet (just say no to interest rate hike) Yellin is causing the "red plague" to spread...
My country now already dropped to 1$= 15000 rupiah.
GOOD! I only care my country account balance.
I ate local food. Paid in my currency. I use local currency. Purchasing local product. My country export raised handsomely. GOOD! Import collapsed. GOOD!!
The more my currency collapsed? The happier i am.
From my office? That FORD dealer on my right side? Already CLOSED! GOOD! Less import car, good for my country.
SUBARU dealer across my office? Now have less car traffics. The luxury car importer car (european, american, exotic japanese like toyota LFA?)? Now they only shows 1 or 2 cars. GOOD!
I hope the US$ increase some more!! So import goods becomes more expensive.
I get paid in my currency. I spends in my currency. Buying local products sells in my currency. I don't buy foreign online shops anymore (they becomes too expensive).
Right now, i have enough of import goods to fulfill what i need. So don't have any need to purchase anything foreign.
So Tyler, from my POV. Raising dollar? Is the best thing that ever happens to my country. Bwahahaha...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/legendary-investor-crispin-odey-goes-to...
Legendary investor Crispin Odey goes to cash as stocks are ‘overextended’
By Brett Arends
Published: Sept 24, 2015 11:51 a.m. ET
The U.K. hedge fund manager says ‘we are now due’ a recession
One of Europe’s most brilliant investment managers is warning of a new global financial crisis on the horizon and has moved a huge chunk of his portfolio into cash.
Crispin Odey, who founded London-based Odey Asset Management in 1991, says the turmoil that began last month has only just begun, and that equity markets could fall much further.
“Our overriding conviction is that we are nearer the beginning of this process than the end,” the hedge fund manager warns clients in his latest report. Stock market valuations worldwide “are so overextended that they will need to fall 30%-40%” before they offer a compelling bargain, he argues.
Astonishingly, Odey now holds 29% of his retail investment fund, Odey Opus, in cash — even though the fund is typically oriented toward growth. The firms manages about $11.7 billion in assets.
It’s easy to take prognostications with a pinch of salt. There’s always someone somewhere predicting doom. The British seem to specialize in it. I’ve been lunching and dining with a variety of accomplished money managers in London in the past few days, and each one has been even more terrifying than the last.
But Odey is no ordinary money manager. He is a living legend in London financial circles, and is usually bullish as well. His Opus fund is up 270% since it was launched in 2001, three times as much as its benchmark.
Odey argues that China’s devaluation augurs an era of financial crisis across emerging markets, including currency wars, tariffs and the formation of trading blocs. China’s ailing economy, he says, will be the new U.S. housing crash. Meanwhile, the world is struggling under debt burdens that have not been eased by years of so-called monetary easing.
There is a recession every decade and “we are now due ours.”
Yikes!
If Odey’s right, then I was way too early when I began buying stocks last month. (It wouldn’t be the first time.) But I don’t want to sit almost entirely in cash either. Buy often, buy early?
the first line in article says it all, IF it was her intention to stop the dollar surge against em currencies?
I might be crazy but us energy stocks will rise, it won't be your old petro dollar, americans buying American energy.
the me's oil is just a few steps from being irrelevant, all that oil, and no way to get it to market, pipelines or tankers.
putin always warns before he acts, he stated months ago he will not play ball with the NWO,BIS, GLOBALIST, at the expense of Russia, they can't stand anyone that don't get on board with they're plan, so they push him.
Turkeys at a turning point, they can be a prosperous, or failed country, within these next few steps.
for the life of me I can't understand Germany, they don't want to depend on Russia for their energy, but will depend on me energy with a weakening delivery system, and have to use high priced dollars to buy it.
if your plans are to take over the world, you do just what yellen did.
If I understand this correctly, a rate hike would have caused more carnage through more capital flow into $USD, no?
The EM Asian economies are large crony infested. Why cry for Predators on their own People ?