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David Petraeus, "Treasury Analyst": Please Don't Quit Your Day Job
We read with interest and even greater amusement a CNN attempt to explain how China's selling of US Treasury is a perfectly normal thing, one which anyone could have predicted (even if nobody actually did, despite our reports on precisely this starting in May) and how a clear act of currency war meant to boost Chinese exports even at the risk of spurring capital outflows, is actually not currency war at all.
We also read it because somehow, the experts quoted in it got everything wrong.
Let's start with Jim Rickards who supposedly "advises the U.S. intelligence community on capital markets" and who explains China's dumping of Treasurys as follows:
"It's international economics 101. China is selling Treasuries to get dollars to buy yuan and limit capital flight," said Jim Rickards, editor of Strategic Intelligence, a newsletter focused on geopolitics and global capital. That's very different from financial war. None of that is going on."
So... China is devaluing its currency not because it desperately needs to boost exports and stimulate its economy, but because it wants to buy yuan and "limit capital flight" the same capital flight that has led to over $300 billion in outflows as a result of the devaluation.
Forget international economics 101, bring on circular reasoning 101. There's more:
"China doesn't want to trash its own holdings. And if they did anything malicious, the president could stop them with one phone call by freezing their account," he said.
Rickards pointed to a 1977 federal law known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act that gives the president vast power to regulate commerce during times of economic stress. After the September 11, 2001 attacks, President George W. Bush used the law to block money held by terrorist organizations.
In other words, according to the "capital markets" expert, a Chinese liquidation of $1 trillion in Treasurys can be overriden with a presidential phone call which somehow freezes China's "account", whatever that is, because somehow the overhang of the biggest holder openly selling in the largest bond market in the world, is comparable to terrorist wire transfers?
Ok then.
Moving on, but it only gets better because suddenly, out of the blue, a new Treasury bond market analyst emerges: none other than disgraced former CIA head David Petraeus, who somehow avoided treason charges when it was revealed that he had a mistress to whom he had leaked confidential material resulting in his prompt termination from the CIA, only to reemerge several years later.... as a Treasury market expert (as well as being recently hired by KKR, of course, just so the private equity company can scrub all of his formerly confidential knowledge before giving him the boot in the nearest future).
CNN introduces him as follows: "Petraeus is one of America's brightest minds on matters of national security. He served as a top military commander in charge of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan before becoming director of the CIA in 2011."
Leaving aside the laughable assertion of the first statement, after reading some of his comments we can only imagine he, as a member of the "intelligence community", is a devoted subscriber of the abovementioned "Strategic Intelligence" newsletter.
Because here is the one statement from Petraeus that we read, read again, then kept rereading for one simple reason...
"There is no shortage of customers for the purchase of U.S. Treasuries," said Petraeus.... "Given the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates at some point in the months ahead, I suspect there will continue to be very keen interest in U.S. Treasuries," Petraeus said.
... everything in it is dead wrong.
No David, the prospect of the Fed rising interest rates will crush interest in Treasurys. In fact, the only thing that will generate "keen interest" in US Treasurys is ongoing weakness in the US economy: precisely the opposite of the point you are trying to make.
And just to explain to KKR's prominent hire what is leading to the great demand for Treasuries, the answer is the dumping in stocks, as the Great Unrotation kicks in once again, and all those who are selling equities end up buying Treasurys along the entire curve. In fact, the worse the US economy gets, and the higher the probability of NIRP, QE4 and/or helicopter money, the greater then demand for Treasurys, not because the US now has $19 trillion in debt but simply to frontrun the Fed's monetization of US paper once again.
Our advice, Mr. Petraeus: don't quit your day job. In fact, if you want to keep it you may want to avoid giving any interviews at all going forward or else KKR will soon find that there is absolutely no "intelligence", confidential or otherwise, to be scrubbed.
* * *
Incidentally, the above is a great example of an "analysis" reaching the right conclusion for all the wrong reasons - a theme all too prevalent on Wall Street. For a far better, and correct, explanation why Chinese selling of TSY may not lead to a surge in yields (the jury is still clearly out - Chinese selling has only been widely recognized for the past month) read Why China Liquidations May Not Spike US Treasury Yields.
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A sincere and trustworthy source, if ever there was one.
Is this the same guy who can't keep faithful to his wife?... If he would shit on her, what do you think he thinks about you..
He's a limp dicked MIC and Zionist mafia errand boy. Nothing more.
Sent by grocery clerks to collect a bill.
What kind of General confides military secrets to a mistress? He's too stupid for such responsibility...or perhaps, just stupid enough according to those that promoted him.
Clearly an idiot / West point's finest
It should raise more than a few eyebrows when a former CIA and MIC boy makes statements on international finance. The irony is that foreign financial control is the objective from the worlds' largest "free" market, backed by the MIC and CIA.
Now go 'vote' for that next prez who's going to change it all because damnit, they're tired of the middle class being ignored.
Some of you are acting like his policies while chief spook limited your career potential? It's ok, we can talk about it, it's healthy to talk about.
Don't list specific details like "I was a lead analyst on floor 6 and he made me prepare his coffee each morning, I was humiliated in front of my peers"
Just say: "I felt targeted by his policies". Or somesuch. But lets talk about it. Go!
Well you're clearly a first rate fuck up regardless of whose coffee you fetched.....
Can you guys help me report this comment as inappropriate? This is not nice.
Everybody luvs a therapy dog except for this guy!
Being the chief spook, the lives he ruined most aren't here to defend themselves. And since DC is a luciferian enclave, some of those people were undoubtedly decent. So yeah, betraeus is a peace of filth, much like you, if you are real.
all this is true, with the possible exception that jim rickards could also be right; a single action may have multiple motives.
but what strikes me as even more noticable is the quantity and toxicity of the venom directed at the national security organs of the u.s. government and the financial, media and military equipment industries of the u.s. corporate sector. and some international allies.
ok.so what do you do about it?
as i perhaps have noted before, there is only one vulnerability that i can see with regard to these charming "folks". they did 9-11 and with enough work (not money, not weapons, not even law-breaking) they can be hung for it (literally or figuratively).
mind by mind. do your part.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsoY3AIRUGA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GNww9cmZPo
http://www.luogocomune.net/site/modules/sections/index.php?op=viewarticl...
p.s. i thought scooby dooby doo's first comment was funny. the second one makes me question the first reaction but then andy kaufman could confuse me.
Oh, wow, Petraeus had "a mistress". Really? A woman, must have been. Nothing about who she was, her background, her loyalties. Just a mistress, I guess. She probably didn't have the slightest idea what to do with the things he told her, probably didn't know what he was talking about, that mistress of his.
Looks real to me! :>D
Can you help me report David Petraeus as inappropriate human being?
As CENTCOM commander, he attended way too many Afghan Bacha Bazi child-rape parties with his pals at KKR and DynCorp. The parties ended with the Afghan guest bidding for each of the 12-year-old 'Dancing Boys'. I believe Petraeus' philosophy at the time was the same as the current CENTCOM commander: it's an internal matter to be reported to the Afghan police - who are the most active child rapists in Afghanistan.
I think Rickards has now shown himself to be a completely untrustworthy source.
He married the daughter of the Commandant at West Point - absolutely NO political scheming involved in THAT move, right?..... (compare photos of the wife and mistress and tell me he married for pure love)
If you marry the Commandant's daughter to give your own career a boost _ and STAYED in the military when all your classmates bailed for vetter paying private sector jobs, at a point in time when the Army sucks and NOBODY plans on making it a career, you've clearly made a committment to that career and are a very political animal. If you then cheat on the wife you married for her family connections (even if her Daddy is gone), you're just plain stupid. Most would say that you weren't too bright if you stayed in and made the military a career in the 1980's.... though with all the reallly talented officers leaving there wasn't a lot of competition for higher rank...... One of my HS classmates just got RIF'd (reduction in force) as a light Colonel.... astounded he was an officer - he really wasn't all that bright.
I know a little of what I speak - having been a member of USMA 1976. We set a record resignation rate - with the best and brightest resigning (if they had a high enough draft lottery number - 'Nam was still very hot in '72. Keep in mind that a certain number of West Point cadets were there in the late 60's and early 70's were anything but 'gung ho.' They had low lottery numbers (and were entering the military one way or another) and were trying to to put Viet Nam off for 4 years and hopefully get an assignment NOT in the direct line of fire. Not necessarily a great bet as ending up a Platoon Leader was maybe worse than being a plain old grunt. West Point was pretty unpopular for a while - our Firstie's (swniors) class - entering in 1969 - had appointments that were left unfilled.
I just had the pleasure of interviewing and subsequently denying a USMA grad a job. He made it easy. He was a fucking idiot.
Kurtz: If I had ten divisions of those men, our troubles here would be over very quickly.
You have to have men who are moral... and at the same time who are able to utilize their primordial instincts to kill without feeling... without passion... without judgment... without judgment! Because it's judgment that defeats us.
Excellent movie, excellent quote. As far as Petrayus goes, he resides in the comfort of his stupidity quite well, I would stick his sorry ass into the world of shit without any judgement, let alone passion.
David Betrayus.
Truth funnier than fiction.
When he is disgraced out of this position he'll probably be seen selling "Rolexes" out of his trenchcoat in the Denny's parking lot.
To be sure, his wife does look like Michael Moore...
...but he means well.
I suspect there will continue to be very keen interest in U.S. Treasuries
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Gee..seems like there has been "keen interest" in US Treasuries my entire adult life.
From a former Cpl, and with all due respect, please shut the hell up sir.
You can safely replace "sir" with any number of non-euphemistic descriptions of bodily excretions and/or body parts while still giving all due respect,
I wish there were a way to convey sarcasm via text. While I do respect the man as a military leader, a can't really respect him for getting into this arena. It's like when they put former football guys on commercials around here, except that I had no respect for them at any time.
Let's be honest, he sucked as a military leader too. Nice job he did in Afghanistan, diddling his mistress while soldiers were dying in the field and blowing their brains out afterwards, achieving no military objective to speak of the entire time (since we did not have any). Any competent military leader would never have accepted the job in the first place.
These perfumed princes deserve no respect.
I sincerely hope he has all his wealth tied up in the Dow and US dollar.
Pretty sure Japan holds more U.S. paper than anyone else.
You'd be wrong in that assumption.
China holds about 1.4T - Japan holds 1.2T. In addition China holds a shit ton of AAA US Agency paper (FNMA, FHLMC, FHLB) which the BoJ doesn't officially invest in.
China is the biggest holder of UST debt and the biggest holder of US guarenteed debt of all flavors.
Has been for a very long time...
And sometime when you hear stories of mass sell offs China's just repositioning on the yield curve. Or a yield curve spread strategy.
Pretty sure there are plenty of US holders of that paper as well.
and they are monetizing 100% of their own debt
What's a trasury analyst? (typo in the headline Tyler?)
Trash Usury?
It involves "anal" - all you need to know.
Commercial Real Estate Shoots Off Chart, Fitch Frets about CMBS, Points to Financial Crisishttp://wolfstreet.com/2015/09/23/fitch-warns-about-white-hot-commercial-...
He's "valued" by the finance knuckledraggers because of his implied insider status. Period.
But it is to laugh. When has the CIA ever predicted ANYTHING?
Petreus belongs to Atlantic Council..one of THE insider groups that count. F. or some resson he was or is their fair haired boy...think,they zre rewarding hik for keeping his mouth shut, especially re Benghazi. Throwing him under the bus. Paula Broadwell, was a honey pot plant. There is damn much insider intrigue in these high flying govt and deep state groups you can not keep up even with a score card. But David is being rewarded and used. People have short memories, am sure they have some future use for him. Anyone or group out of Tampa....are a bunch of players associated with neo cons at State Dept. In fact that Tampa lot, Special Operation Command etc., and CENTCOM Are the military arm of State Dept.
Bonds = roach motel.
"There is no shortage of customers for the purchase of U.S. Treasuries," said Petraeus.... "Given the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates at some point in the months ahead, I suspect there will continue to be very keen interest in U.S. Treasuries," Petraeus said
So David... Why haven't you been murdered yet for all of your war crimes?...
Plenty of loyal security these days. It's probably the best job a regular guy can get.
Plenty of loyal security these days. It's probably the best job a regular guy can get.
So true what you just said... We reward incompetence with the worst criminal behavior as long as there is cheap money backing it. Can you see Westmoreland getting away with what Petraeus has done just 45 years ago???...
If he were in the Roman legion under someone like Augustus or Constantine he would have been gutted and roasted on a spit in front of his own men to set the example of "what not to do" before he even came home!
This is why we won't be seeing our 250th let alone our 245th birthday!
He would be partial to hiring that security detail that frequents the South American prostitutes...
Boys will be boys>>>Dicks will be dicks...
Everyone knows the whole world is just lining up for that 2% piece of worthless trash you and your European butt buddys have to keep buying everytime China dumps. And, the sad part, they will make some change on the trip to 1% then .33%. THEN WHAT? charge for the privelege?
And somebody please tell this freaking GURU that if they are destined to go up because the "prospect" of the FED increasing rates, then the ones you buy now are discounted trash nobody wants.
Treasury Expert? LMAO
p.s. Russian bonds still paying 11%
place your bets.
Foreign buyers of US debt? That would be the William Dudley via the BIS buying it all up.
Moar BS masquerading as "demand" for UST's.
Venezuela will be the only buyer (on credit) of US Treasuries when they become worthless.
Thank God the need for toilet paper is an enduring need.
Betray-us should be in jail... instead of on Tee Vee
Another faggot for the fire.
When they start trotting out former CIA people and 'experts' like this on CNN, in makes me really wonder - what the hell are they preparing us for?
Total in your face Zionistic fascism, no hiding it anymore?
When a person known entirely for his military career starts opining on international finance, you know something else is up.
TPTB are all out of any semblance of credability if they are trotting this tool out.
This is in the late nineties. I had a extended family member, good guy , friendly, not the sharpest but had a good Teamster job delivering milk to grocery stores. I only saw him once, twice a year and when I did he would go on and on about the latest gadgets he had bought on some home shopping network. This particular year he was telling anyone who would listen that he had opened an online trading account and was making big returns in .com stocks. I had been thinking of moving a large part of my 401k into tech stocks to try and get in on the future. I told my wife on the way home that he was either lying or something was fucked up. I sat tight and didn't lose my ass
Well, they certainly cannot be running out of pathological liars, so...
His faith in fiat is very strong.
He looks to have had a chemical peel and some botox for us, as well.
Poor Petraeus, with no more young spy trim after him.
And if everything doesn't all work out just the way he says, we can always blame ISIS, invade a few countries, and kill everyone.
First off the FED won't raise rates and secondly as previously noted if rates are going to rise bonds would be sold, seeking a higher yeilds. That's as simple as one could get in the financial world Dave. Why do they let these people speak in public? That's just plain embarrassing.
David Petraeus is such a tool ... why does anyone listen to this loser?
Who does?
US debt is an unpayable $210 trillion or at least $1,720,000 per taxpayer.
Only ignorant idiots buy US Treasuries
Laurence Kotlikoff: U S Treasury Bonds One of the Riskiest Securities in the World, Financial System Will Collapse Just a Matter of Whenhttp://investmentwatchblog.com/laurence-kotlikoff-u-s-treasury-bonds-one...
Dude you don't really understand how the printing press works do you? Neither does the guy writing that drivel.
Countries only default when they have no access to a printing press because they use the currency of another country (Greece) or they have debt denominated in foreign currencies that they can't service with their inflating currency (Argentina, Brazil in a year or two).
US Treasuries are incredibly safe. The dollar on the other hand is a different argument and different kettle of fish.
You are obviously the one who is clueless. A sovereign with access to a printing press defaults on their debts by printing. Whether you default by non-payments or default by over printing and making a worthless currency makes no difference. It's still a default.
You got that right Doc. UST's are not safe at all. They stand to be devalued by a massive amount at the very least.
Its just a matter of time.
Ahhh -no.
But clearly from your reply you wanna have a much more emotive than factual dialogue so I'll just say goodbye now.
The upside is apparently there are no repercussions for inside financial information pillow talk.
Petraeus needs to get together with Gartman, the two of them would be priceless
Green shoots 4 eva.....cause we're exceptionally exceptional.
If we took everyone in a coma to the nearest morgue, we could also say the coma patient was also doing relatively well...
Yeah I know...but did you ever get a look at his wife - in all honesty and sincerity, I can't blame him for jumping on that babe...But as far as anything else, FORGET about it.....military secrets? Face it, we can't win with them or without them...
When you Boink for Promotions (marry a generals daughter to get promoted), you cannot complain about your choices
I NEVER THOUGHT that I would be living inside a George Orwell novel.
But apparently I am.
Can somebody please close the book and return it to the library.
This sounds like a really loud "Run for the hills" command to me. Or rather "Duck and cover"...?
'US is least filthy shirt in the hamper, therefore it's spun out of pure gold'....no I'm sorry that's just retarded.
Only in America are washed up Generals allowed to get book deals and write about their war crimes...
Hell, we used to elect them President,but then, we used to win wars.
Rickards is an IMF mouthpiece skank.
He also slings the ole "Gold will rise to $12879654789 Trillion/ounce" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . any day now.
Polly wants a cracker.
Das Rayciss!
All .govInc. has to do to goose Treasury demand is start a few new wars, maybe get China and Russia to put on the ground is, say . . . Syria.
If this guy is as good as financial analyst as he was as militarist and spook, then we have a field day ahead of us on his crystal ball gazing.
What goes around comes around. And it aint pure gold.
zerohedge = cnbc
continued BS on china selling treasuries. nonsense. look at treasury auctions. look at china exports collapsing.
money went into china in the last 5 years, the currency didn't move much. now the money will all go out at once and all will be countered by selling long term treasuries? if this BS is true, why sell the bonds and not the bills? or do you think they only own notes and bonds? why would you sell what earns you 2-3% (when your economy is probably growing at less than 3%!) instead of selling the short term paper that pays nothing?
duh
-1 for the BlowHorn reference.
What's the real reason that China's exports are collapsing:
1) the West's weak recovery has finally gained traction and they no longer have to import cheap Chinese goods.
2) the West's seven year long recession is about about slip down a notch to a depression for everyone except the banksters.
3) The Chinese are trembling before Obama's accusations of cyber espionage and petrified of Admiral Dewey's imminent arrival in the South China Sea.
4) None of the above
Reminds me of the epic Charlton Heston (as Taylor) line in Planet of the Apes:
"Madhouse! It's a madhouse!!"
Ha. Is this clown still banging the Tribe member chick with the big forehead ????.
Next thing we will know. Bill Gross will be leading the Army.
Dubya Bush will become a Nun, and Tony BLiar a human being. And Obama will grow a pair and stop trying to threaten Russia cos they actually have someone who looks and acts like a leader who takes care of his people.
Petraeus was an Ass Hat as a general and continues to be such. He is desperately trying to worm his way back into the circle of trust...
He came out for Hillary, obviously trying to get the Secretary of Defense job. That was before he was convicted, though, don't know if a felon can hold that job.
It was hot & steamy no doubt with that broad of his.I don't think his wife was impressed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6ENgEtazZA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lpPgEgyoJs
I guess if I thought the treasury market was gonna
tank,
or
bomb
i'd hire an x-general too
Sure, everything he says is dead wrong. But that's the whole point. His handlers are not trying to inform, they're trying to misinform. He's doing a good job.
He's pointing to what the game is about. To quote myself:
duplicate eliminated
How do war criminals get print?
Henry Kissinger - "Military Men Are Just Dumb, Stupid Animals To Be Used As Pawns In Foreign Policy"