This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Gold Pops, Dollar Drops, As CATastrophe Slaps Stocks Ahead Of Yellen "Do-Over" Speech
Despite a lot of effort today...
BMW fears battered European stocs - not helped at all by a 4th day of China devaluation wringing the carry trade out of EUR... CAT crushed hopes early on and weak US data pushed stocks lower but Crude's rampathon lifted stocks (as JPY lost its mojo) and then JPM's quant fell on his sword
Cash indices roundtripped but were unable to get green...
And since the post-FOMC peak...
CAT was the big loser after cutting outlooks and slashing jobs...
VIX was higher on the day but those crazy tails were very evident again...
And the JPM comment drove the algos wild...
The whole day was one of roundtrips...around Europe's close...
Credit continues to push lower...
As US Financials see credit surge back towards Black Monday wides...
Treasury yields tumbled as stocks sold off then began to ramp back higher as Europe closed...
The USD Dollar dumped early on as Yuan devaluation sparked more EURCNH unwinds (and EUR strength) but once again as soon as Europe closed a mysterious bid for USDs re-emerged ahead of Asia...
Commodities generally rose on the day with gold and silver most notable.
Close up on crude's roundtrip
But it was gold and silver that stood out...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 30820 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
just waiting for godot
Vladimir gave upwaiting and moved to New Zealand.
Mr. Donald Trump stylish coiffure is not call "do-over"!?
While we wait for godot, let them eat gâteau.
Funny thing I like about zerohedge.com..
If you really remember Willie Wonka...
You surely remember Sensa Milla, Colombian Gold, Window Pain, and I really would just be starting a small list of things you would now be marked as a terrorist for partaking in during the 70s and 80s. How times change, just like the morals of that final scene.
Sheesh!
Dude, I used to get wired on those Mickey Mouse gumballs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTfBCL2deGI
Couldn't stop chewing the things. Until I ran out and mom refused to buy more. Must be the reason I'm so jaded.
I thought cutting jobs increases your stock price? DOOOOHH
PPT Death by 1000 cuts
Dude! What does "PPT" stand for!!???
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/plunge-protection-team.asp
I owe you a lap dance!!
Nope, no manipulation here. I just wonder how long till something breaks that they can't fix......
there has been many breakages but the ability to print to infinity extends the use of a mountain of duct tape.
fake ass fucking Fraud Markets...
yeah, right - 1st its "sell, sell, sell!!!!!!"
then its , "buy, buy, buy..."almost back to the opening mark....
FUCK OFF YOU BANKER WALL STREET PIECES OF SHIT....
death to the MoneyChangers........
Worst Black Thursday EVA
Well the keebler she elf speaks in a little. Priced in?????
Quant-boy should get his walking papers today for making a boneheaded call like that. Don't even finish the week out, just don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
figures ... 2/20 payday in 5 trading days.
“Stop All The Flaming Doves” from "Stop! In The Name Of Love" by The Supremes
Stop all these flaming doves
Before they break my chart
Janet, I'm afraid you’ll start an FOMC war
Each time stocks reach a floor
I watch you walk down 20th Street
Knowing all the other doves you'll meet
But this time before you run to Dudley
Leaving my charts all spiky and muddy
(Think it over) After I've been good to you ?
(Think it over) Like everyone on Wall Street for you ?
Stop! All you flaming doves, so I can throw a dart (Think it over)
I've known of your, your deluded nights
I've even read Bernanke’s blog, maybe once or twice
But is causing a deep depression
Worth Krugman’s love and affection?
But this time before you manipulate the ARMS
And feed Virtu’s bots Lucky Charms
(Think it over) Haven't I bought dips for you ?
(Think it over) Isn’t a correction overdue ?
Stop! All you shameful doves, before you break my charts (Think it over)
I've tried so hard, hard to be patient
Hoping you'd stoke some inflation
But each time you all get together
I'm so afraid I'll be seeing ZIRP forever
Stop! All you shameless doves, before you break my chart
Ooh, think it over baby...
Who needs a D-11 Cat anyway, when all of the social media companies here in the Valley are making real stuff...
Dont forget elected officials can pass a bill to solve any crisis just like Cali avoiding drought with a bill giving infinite fresh spring water forever to anyone in the state.
Yellen "Do Over" Speech. ZH nails it (again).
BEST ZH HEADLINE EVER. LOVE IT. KEEP IT COMIN'
Putin to Meet Obama in NY; before UN.
GUNFIGHT AT OK CORRAL.
Obama knows that the world knows that if he blinks now known unknowns BECOME known KNOWNS.
what about the unknown unknowns? you know, the things we don't know, we don't know...
you mean when Janet decides to Burp a rate hike instead of doing a NIRP dive to follow a known trend to its logical end ?
That would be a true unknown unknown.
A mad rush into black matter on Mars !
Worse yet, the known unknown unknowns.
The things that we know that we don't know if we don't know them or not.
Jack Yellen will pop his ugly head out and mumble some pure bullshit. Waiting for more data...bla,bla,bla.
The street is waiting on the code words that signal NIRP! Just in time for X-Mas bonuses!
FUBAR+++
I thought about the groundhog with your comment.
The price of Yellow Metal will surge if the bitch even hints at NIRP.
Damn!!! I hope that she retracts any of that NIRP talk. I enjoy Gold on the cheap...and Silver on the cheap.
I been trying to guess what the she elf will do and I have been wrong lately. I hope you are right because I like the shiny to stay cheap a little longer. Come to think of it I been saying a little longer for a long time now. I remember not long ago thinking $30 an ounce for silver was cheap.
Bearish on law breakers and law makers.
Yellen speech livestream 5pm EST http://www.umass.edu/yellen
Twatterf33d https://twitter.com/hashtag/yellen?f=tweets&vertical=news
Beware the helicopters..
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/09/24/2015/not-bottom-sp-500-its...
This Is Not a Bottom in the S and P 500; it is a Bull Trap
By Dan Fitzpatrick
September 24, 2015
After the dramatic breakdown last month, the S&P has stabilized. But that "stabilization" hasn't really been stable. It's really been a setup for more downside, trending sideways in a series of higher lows and slightly higher highs in such a way that a lot of financial pundits have been wondering if the bottom is in.
This "consolidation" is not a bottom; it's a bull trap.
Look at this chart of the S&P:
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/sites/realmoney.thestreet.com/files/image...
The lines really aren't as complicated as they might seem. You can see the support line that was in effect for a few months, right near the 200-day moving average. That massive selloff ultimately ended with an approximate 180-point decline.
From that Aug. 24 low, the S&P began forming what is now seen as a "bearish wedge" -- a series of higher highs and lows (which are encouraging to the perma-bulls who don't understand how price charts work). Investors are getting sucked in... but they are just too few, and too poorly capitalized, to push the market up very much before selling leans on the prices.
However, they still they persist. The next low is met with more buying, at higher prices. Novice chartists start talking about "higher lows". "This is the bottom!" they say, or "Get 'em while they're down." But few follow their lead. Ultimately, the rallies lose steam. The pattern looks like a "wedge".
And this is a "continuation" pattern -- a continuation of the decline.
If you extend another 180 points from the point of breakdown at the end of the wedge (right around 1,960), you get a rough price target of about 1,800.
That's where I think the S&P goes before it attracts any real money, and that's where I'm looking to put my cash to work.
W=Fd
"CATastrophe" Good one. You can leave an hour early tomorrow.
Loking at the stock chart for Catepillar...looks like a cat trying to catch its tail...
Is the PPT running out of Viagra and heading for Niagra?
Yellin looking for Zeros or Negatives in all the wrong places.
This can't end well.
Paper games, harvesting the maximum # of nearby stops up and down. Gotta love these fair and efficient "markets".
This bitch continues to spew bullshit and people eat it up...How in the fuck does this world even turn with people do retarded
You know the regular way, with
corn syrup, benzene, and voc's.
I thought Jews were supposed to be smart.
The puppet speaks.
According to Itau BBA:
http://is.gd/XzTkOs
The Big Fear
Thus, Fed announcement day arrived with most equity markets up 5%-10% off the late August lows, commodity prices higher and rates priced for Fed action. The main concern coming into the Fed meeting was not that the Fed would hike; it seemed quite clear that it would not go against virtually the entire global economic policymaking community and raise rates. No, the concern was that the Fed would stand pat and stocks, rather than rally, would sell off.
Lo and behold, that is exactly what happened, and that is why we need to be very, very concerned about how things move from here. It remains unclear whether the equity market reaction to the Fed decision was (hopefully) just a classic case of buy the rumor (no hike) and sell the news, or something much worse, namely that investors might be starting to price in policymakers? loss of control – The Big Fear.
The Big Fear of policymakers losing control has been lurking underneath the global equity market for years, underpinned as markets have been by central bank support. Think of it this way: there are two global growth drivers: China and the US. Recently, the competence of the policymaking community in both countries has been called into question, suggesting a possible loss of faith in policymakers, which if true is very worrisome, thus the Big Fear concept.
Why is the Big Fear so worrisome? It’s simple. If investors lose faith in policymakers and decide that cash or bonds are a better place for their money, then stocks are likely to sell off much further. How much further? One never knows, but maybe asking a few questions might help. First, at what level does the S&P need to be for the Fed to engage in QE 4? Second, what S&P level will be considered cheap (keep in mind 2016 E estimates need to come in sharply)? I don’t know the answer to either question, but it seems reasonable to expect that the S&P would need to go much lower than the 1870 level it bottomed at in late August or the 1830 level of a year ago.
The economic implications of such a sell-off would likely be a US and global recession. Such an environment could create a negative feedback loop between financial markets and the real economy, which policymakers would find very difficult to break.
It seems clear that the Fed will not raise rates this year, neither next month when they meet again nor in December, which is the last meeting of the year. Will they raise rates in 2016? From this armchair, the odds are against it, as the forces of recession gather while the forces of reflation stagnate. On this front, one has to question the Fed’s 2016 inflation forecast of 1.6%, up from 0.4% this year. The Fed’s crystal ball has been mighty cloudy for years, but this forecast takes the cake.
A look at the global economy helps explain why. Four factors stick out: excess debt, an absence of inflation, insufficient demand and excess supply of raw materials and manufactured goods. None of this is new – what is new is how the various hopes and remedies have fallen short while the problems deepen. The toxic combo of excess debt and disinflation is one powerful reason why the Fed did not move, and excess supply in commodities and manufactured items (look at the PPIs around the world) is another. The global economy needs demand-creation or production shut-ins, and to date both have been lacking.
There are small signs that the commodity complex is starting to finally adjust, with closures, dividend cuts and stock issuance in the mining sector and talks about talks in the world oil market. However, the manufacturing segment of the world economy is quite far behind the commodity segment, suggesting that China’s need to shift excess production will ensure manufactured-goods disinflation for the foreseeable future.
One can wish for inflation and for the Fed to be able to hike, but one also needs to be focused on the realities of the current global economy. Where is the demand going to come from? Who is going to shut in production? Let?s look at the three main economic regions: Asia, Europe and the Americas. Asia is likely to be a source of manufactured-goods disinflation as it seeks to rebalance itself to a China that is a competitor first, a customer second. Japan?s recovery is sputtering; it will continue QE while a fiscal stimulus package seems quite likely in the months ahead. Europe remains quite weak, and with the refugee issue now occupying policymakers, ECB-led QE seems the only game in town.
The Americas is a concern. South America is in a deep funk, whether it is Mexico?s subpar growth rate, Brazil?s political and economic travails, Andean copper dependency or the impact of weak oil on countries such as Colombia or Venezuela. All this is pretty well known.
The US is most worrisome because of its combination of still-high equity prices and a very bare policy toolbox to confront any economic weakness. How bare? Well, monetary policy is on hold, and the bar to QE4 is likely a much lower S&P. What about US fiscal policy, one might ask? Great question. Here is the only thing one needs to know about the US presidential election process: it takes fiscal policy flexibility away and locks it in the freezer until late 2017, two whole years from now. In other words, at a time when the US economic expansion is close to seven years old, with the Fed on hold, incomes flat, debt levels high, a strong dollar and absolutely no inflation, fiscal policy is locked away for the next two years at least!
By the way, the UK confronts similar issues and could possibly be a canary in the coalmine for US monetary policy – QE for the people on BOTH sides of the Atlantic perhaps? The UK?s negative rate discussion is likely to move across the pond over the next quarter or so. One other way of thinking about it is this: which comes first, the end of ECB QE or QE4 in America? I would go with the latter.
How does one vanquish the Big Fear? With aggressive policy action on the demand-and-supply side. What is the likelihood of that? Exactly. Seen in this light, it makes perfect sense for investors to worry that policymakers no longer have their back, and thus they take some money off the table. One analogy is that the US economy is like a ship that has engine trouble, is drifting towards the rocks and is left to hope that the wind shifts and takes it away from the reef…. not exactly a bull-market, high-valuation tableau. Hope is not a strategy.