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Is Goldman Preparing To Sacrifice The Next "Lehman"
One of the more "unmentionable" conspiracy theories surrounding the demise of Lehman Brothers in 2008 is that this "shocking" event was in fact a well-choreographed and carefully scripted "controlled demolition", with the Lehman Bankruptcy - the event that officially unleashed the Great Financial Crisis - getting the express prior permission of both Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, a former Goldman employee, whose motive was the elimination of the one firm that was then Goldman's biggest competitor in the FICC space, and whose subsequent bailout of his former employer (Goldman Sachs and all other insolvent banks) would lead to the preservation of trillions in worthless equity courtesy of the biggest taxpayer funded bailout in history, and with billions in excess reserves parked on Goldman's balance sheet smoothing the bank's transition through a historic recession.
Fast forward to this week when as we reported previously, following a surge in its Credit Default Swaps, the "doomsday" scenario for Glencore is now on the table, because the market suddenly realized that Glencore's most valuable asset, not its mines, or its trading operations, but its investment grade rating, could be stripped away.
This is what we said, after we noted that GLEN CDS had just hit a multi-year wide of 464bps (precisely as we said it would over a year ago):
We expect this CDS blowout to continue.
What's worse, if the company is downgraded from investment grade to junk, watch as the "commodity Lehman" scenario for Glencore, which much more than a simple copper miner just happens to be one of the world's biggest commodity trading desks, comes full cricle leading to waterfall collateral liquidations and counterparty freeze-outs as suddenly the world is reminded that there is a vast difference between a real and a rehypothecated commodity, and that all collateral rehypothecation chains are only as strong as the weakest counterparty!
Long story short: if and when Glencore loses its Investment Grade rating, it's more or less game over, if not for the company's already mothballed mining operation then certainly for its trading group, where "junking" would lead to numerous collateral shortfalls and margin call waterfalls, reminiscent of the ratings agency downgrade of AIG that culminated with the US bailout of the insurer.
Therefore we were not surprised earlier today to see Glencore stock crash to a new record low below 100p even as the CDS blow out continued.
We were, however, very surprised by the catalyst, because the company that managed to successfully hammer Glencore, which in our view is nothing short of the commodity "Lehman" (or perhaps AIG) was none other than Goldman, which earlier today released a report which is essentially blueprint for not only how to take away Glencore's precious investment grade rating, but taken a few steps further, how to unleash this cycle's commodity "Lehman event" (once again, Glencore is first and foremost a trading desk which serves as a counterparty with trillions in derivatives notional exposure to virtually every other commodity using and trading entity in the world) and taken to the extreme, how to "force" the Fed to finally unleash the helicopter money should Glencore's failure be the catalyst the pushes the entire world into a deflationary recession, if not outright depression.
This is what Goldman said earlier in a note titled "Much progress made but the song remains the same"
We update our estimates for Glencore following the completion of its equity placement on September 16, in which it raised its target of $2.5bn. We also update our estimates to incorporate our commodity analysts’ lower thermal coal forecasts ($58/54/52/t for 2015/16/17E) and lower met coal forecasts ($91/85/90/t), which impacts Glencore’s 2016/17/18E EBITDA by c.15-18%... On lower estimates we reduce our 12-month price target to 130p (was 170p).
Implications
Since announcing c.$10bn of debt reduction measures on September 7 and completing a 9.9% equity placing, shares have retreated a further 14%. In our view investors are not yet convinced that Glencore has gone far enough to totally allay fears that the industrial assets can service the new lower debt level. Our scenario analysis suggests that using GS estimates for commodities prices and FX rates, Glencore’s IG rating would be secure in the medium term, but our estimates for zinc, nickel and coal prices are higher than spot prices. When we run the same analysis using spot commodity prices and spot FX rates, most of Glencore’s credit metrics would be at the border of required ranges to maintain its IG rating. Finally, a 5% drop in spot commodity and flat FX would see most of Glencore’s credit rating metrics fall well outside the required range to maintain its IG rating, suggesting concerns would quickly resurface. Glencore has a few levers left – further lowering capex, signing streaming deals and releasing more working capital. Recent underperformance suggests that the measures exercised are insufficient and more is needed. We remain Neutral rated but expect continued volatility in the near term.
Why is Glencore's IG rating so critical? As explained above, Glencore is really not so much the Lehman as the AIG of the commodity world: without an investment grade rating, a self-reinforcing collapse will begin that could ultimately terminate Glencore's trading desk, in the process liquidating one of the world's biggest commodity trading counterparties.
From Goldman:
Glencore’s trading business relies heavily on short-term credit to finance commodity deals and its financing costs would increase if it were to lose its Investment Grade credit rating. In addition, it could even lose some counterparties due to increased counterparty risk.
That's putting it mildly: what a junking of Glencore would do, is start a collateral demand waterfall cascade that the cash-strapped company simply would not be able to sustain.
So having laid out the strawman, Goldman next, very conveniently, explains just what would take for the Investment Grade trap to slam shut:
it would only take a c.5% fall in spot commodities prices for concerns about its credit rating to resurface
While Glencore’s announced measures have allayed near-term concerns about the potential for its credit rating to be downgraded, its high leverage to commodity prices is demonstrated in our scenario analysis, where we estimate just a c.5% drop in spot commodity prices would see concerns resurface about the potential for its credit rating to be downgraded. In addition, given the latest guidance on capex of c.$4bn in FY17, we believe there is limited flexibility for the company to make any further cuts while maintaining its production targets.
Wait, high leverage to commodity prices as the biggest risk factor? Where have we seen this before? Oh yes, in our March 2014 post (saying to buy GLEN CDS) which showed the one thing nobody was looking at at the time; Glencore's, wait for it, high leverage to commodity prices!
For those who enjoy playing with numbers, here is Goldman's real "Doomsday" scenario: the one which sees Glencore's IG rating stripped. As Goldman admits, all it would take is a small 5% drop in commodity prices from here:
If commodity prices were to fall 5% from current levels – which we do not consider to be a far-fetched assumption given the downside risk to commodity consumption in China – we believe that concerns about its IG credit rating would quickly resurface. Under this scenario, we estimate that most of Glencore’s credit rating metrics would fall well outside the required ranges to maintain its IG rating, and as early as the next reporting period (FY15).
Although Glencore has a few levers left in the event commodity prices continue their leg down (such as deferring capex and executing streaming deals), the key point to highlight is that executing these options would take time. That said the recent announcement by Silver Wheaton that it is working with Glencore on the streaming deal highlights that management is focused on bolstering its balance sheet.
Charted:
It goes without saying that courtesy of HFTs and China's hard landing, a 5% drop in commodities could happen overnight.
So if one is so inclined, and puts on the conspiracy theory hat mentioned at the beginning of this post, Goldman may have just laid out the strawman for the next mega bailout which goes roughly as follows:
- Commodity prices drop another 5%
- The rating agencies get a tap on their shoulder and downgrade Glencore to Junk.
- Waterfall cascade of margin and collateral calls promptly liquidates Glencore's trading desk and depletes the company's cash, leaving trillions of derivative contracts in limbo. Always remember: the strongest collateral chain is only as strong as its weakest conterparty. If a counterparty liquidates, net exposure becomes gross, and suddenly everyone starts wondering where all those "physical" commodities are.
- Contagion spreads as self-reinforcing commodities collapse launches deflationary shock wave around the globe.
- Fed and global central banks are called in to come up with a "more powerful" form of stimulus
- The money paradrop scenario proposed by Citigroup yesterday, becomes reality
Too far-fetched? Perhaps. But keep an eye out for a Glencore downgrade from Investment Grade. If that happens, it may be a good time to quietly get out of Dodge for the time being. Just in case.
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Paulson should most definitely be in prison. I was no fan of Lehman, but what happened to them was nothing short of a criminal conspiracy.
Very true, let them fall and then bailout the rest. Well played Goldman.
Print Mr Yellin!!!
the greatest control fraud in history, the 2008 seizure of the u.s. government's financial/regulatory apparatus by wall street's banks and trading houses to recapitalize themselves and avoid prosecution for their enormous crimes, is tremendously evil. it will never be prosecuted or its errors corrected until the psychopaths at the head of our society are neutralized.
only 9-11 can do this. it is the crime that is clear-cut, unambiguously wrong, provable, without a statute of limitations (treason/murder/kidnapping), sufficiently inflammatory (very important) and really comprehensive in its list of perps, especially after the fact (the editors of the new york times don't actually have to go to jail; just most people have to think they should).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsoY3AIRUGA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GNww9cmZPo
http://www.luogocomune.net/site/modules/sections/index.php?op=viewarticl...
mind by mind. do your part.
Bullish for PMs, right?
After MF Global, it is not clear how the markets are safe for buyers, sellers, brokers, banks, etc.
But as always, have your physical setup and safe first before going out to see what's going on.
The PRE-PLANNED Financial and Economic 9/11 of 2008
http://cosmicconvergence.org/?p=2026
Well explains the events of September and October of 2008:
• STOCK MARKET CRASH ENGINEERED
• 2008 RECESSION MANUFACTURED
• LEHMAN BROTHERS CONTROLLED DEMOLITION
So the Socialist jew Bankster cartel plans in advance? Really? Well butter my buns and call me Barry!
Off topic but everyone enjoy the latest multiple pictures of the Weeping Cheeto.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3247609/Francis-takes-Congress-t...
Wonder if Obama breaks him down while he's licking Obama's jack boots?
larry summers wanted the position to be the bitch
Yellen's a whore. So was Bernanke.
All of Congress & the US Senate are whores. Going to be kind of funny when the 'men behind the curtain' pull the plug, demonize central banking structures and fire all those who assumed the man had their backs.
Colonel Klink, looks to me more like he did too much blow but still wants another toot. Hes thinking "When will this windbag shut up so I can go to the after party"
$26 billion in taxpayers monies seems pretty reasonabe this time so the thiving fucking jews can continue to do god's work
Booyah!
Everybody has bits and pieces but everyone needs to put it all together. This was a well coordinated effort by my players. The Reserve Primary Fund, and the Bents Family, were crucial by buying up and rolling over Lehman bonds to the tune of $782 million. When Lehman went tits up.That caused the Reserve Primary, the Bruce Bents I & II, to break the buck which froze the repo market and sent the TED Spread looking ridiculous. Now Hank Greenburg was CEO of AIG until Elliot Spitzer forced him out in 2005 and Hank Greenburg was the whole risk management apparatus at AIG. When AIG went tits up Hank Paulson forced the CEO of AIG, the one who served as CEO after Greenberg, out so Treasury could appoint their own CEO to dilute Hank Greenburg's voting rights on the board and give the board enough juice to vote on paying Goldman Sachs par on every credit default swap. Goldman was the beneficiary with a record $22 billion in bonuses.
Hank Paulson's swan song.
Was not the "let one fall, so the rest can cash in" the very story behind the Laughing Man Incident in GitS?
It's a well played out trope.
Serious question.
If we start electing people of character and solid reputation to connedgrease, will we protect them from the guillotines?
I've considered it, but don't want to work with psychopaths on a daily basis. But someone like me, that I knew was solid, would initially have little effect on the shitshow of government. It would take a majority of the 535 to end the whorehouse of government, and we still have too many sheep and FSA.
When do we end the call for retribution? (not that it's in the immediate future...)
interesting that the freemasons press take so much attention of the pope.
The catholic church was the only organisation which did fight against the freemasons!
Apparently now compromised
Agreed.
Or, to put it a bit more simply: IT'S CALAMARI TIME, MOTHERFUCKERS.
+100 for the "calamari time" ref!!!
No shit; wish I'd thought of it.
with all the heavy weights CONverged in dc, well...
"If a counterparty liquidates, net exposure becomes gross [emphasis added by me], and suddenly everyone starts wondering where all those "physical" commodities are."
For those who may not quite grasp this, it means all your "hedging" against falling prices is null and void and you are left with full-in-the-face long exposure PLUS entities dealing in the physical commodity can suddenly be looking down a long tunnel of "failure to timely deliver" on contracts they've signed.
But, then again, 2016 is the last year for a lame duck president... traditionally a very good year to "clean house" and get the government to bail you out.
Do you honestly think, with an Obama Admin and a Yellen FOMC, there's ANY chance they wouldn't capitulate to the Squid and their bretheren?
Ain't no party like a counter party!
Party likes it's 1999, or was that 2008?
Glencore is going to be sacrificed this time for an attempt to control this implosion and also attempt another bailout. I think the bankers have gone a bridge too far.
Once Goldman Sacks has control of the commodity market, how far down will the precious be driven, to support the FED wipe out, do you think?
And if she cant print it then fart it, its dirty money anyways
He's suffered so much though.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/morganbrennan/2012/06/05/billionaire-john-pa...
Hank not John.
John is the colossal failure that could not come up with a good trade idea on his own if his life depended on it.
Lehman had to die to save GS since GS were actually in more trouble......
What ever happened to Douche Bank anyway?
Edit: Damn, good ole Marty beat me to the punch.
Deutsche Bank – the New Lehman Brothers?http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37443
Sunday blood moon Sunday. Monday,we stare at urban renewal. And the winds of change start to howl.
Which reminds me...got to get my fantasy football going!
Monday,we stare at Turban renewal.
(well, not Turbans, but you get the idea.)
I remember after the Bear Stearns "bailout" the MSM started asking "Will the Fed bailout everyone?"
Eventually the answer came from Bernanke in the form of "We are not afraid to let a financial firm fail."
At that instant I started wondering who their takedown target was, which of course, did not take very long at all to materialize.
That's when JPM got the FED backstop as well and silver was crushed from $21 down to $9 and gold from $1000 to around $700.
Same shit going on today, only worse in scope and magnitude.
This time IS different, silver has already been crushed.
Gold and silver both went down months ahead of the 2008 crash and both started rising months ahead of the stock market bottom (March 2009 when FASB 157 was eliminated).
The COMEX price for spot silver could break below $10, but the coin shops would have a $10/oz premium or go on holiday.
I was fascinated that Bear Stearns was the first to go as Bear was the only large company that failed to respond to the Fed's calls when LTCM almost brough down the house in 1998.
Back in the sub prime era I worked in IT for a mortgage company and some of our conference rooms were permanently taken over by analysts from Bear Sterns mostly. BS bought most of our garbage in lots of 500 at a time and sold it on the secondary market...you know the story how junk was rated AAA and resold to pension funds, 401ks, investors, whoever. Everyone took their cut at every stage of the loan life cycle including the 'regulators' and rating agencies. We were like a canary in the coal mine and went bankrupt because the buybacks (when loans failed to perform in 1st three months) exceeded the expectations of a revolving door of VPs. The domino affect progressed rapidly and other sub primes also failed in rapid succession as the same personnel seemed to show up to do what they did best, drive companies into the ground by taking their cuts in spite of what was in the companies best interests. When they all failed it was the guys that washed the cars, the guys that made everyone's lunch, the dry cleaners that pressed the suits, and all the trickle down average Joes that got fucked too.
Well, you know........he also lied to Congress. (but that's small potatoes).
A tradition.
Unleash the kraken!
Interesting new chemo regimen. Probably works... think South Park did a riff on this.
SINCE GLENCORE !!!!!
CHUG...CHUG...CHUG...CHUG....CHUG....CHUG !!
Fuck Blankfein, him and Dimon are the ones that should be in jail, they need some time to mingle with Leon and crew, they will make good bitches. Paulson should be strung up by his balls in front of the Whitehouse!
At the time of the crisis, I picked up a German Stern magazine. They had interviewed an elderly German lady who had lost her life's savings because she'd listened to someone in her bank to buy Lehman shares. 5,000 euros were her life savings earmarked for a new kitchen as soon as she retired, all lost. She should have been intellectual enough not to listen to her bank, but was a blue collar worker. They never understand how it pans out for John and Jane Citizen.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/there-are-indications-that-a...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCM7rMIqxmk
"a well-choreographed and carefully scripted "controlled demolition".
Are we talking about Lehman or the WTC towers?
Yes
I'm from Missouri, been waiting for 7 years. Show me...
Bankruptcy is so 2008... Math is so 2012... This is the new system. Get with it.
Plan B - How to loot nations and their banks legally. Good article from 2011 regarding the plan. It goes back to bankrupcy reform in the mid 2000's - the so called Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA). Even the bill title seems Orwellian in hindsight.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article30016.htm
I first saw a reference to BAPCPA in reference to MF Global. Glencore is essentially in the same business as MF Global and is being prepared for takedown. Goldman certainly does seem to be criminally intertwined in these events.
This is all "brothers and sisters fucking each other" - incestuous and gross.
Prank call: Russian pranksters fooled Elton John into believing that Putin had given him a call 16.09.2015
"to embrace LGBT population in Ukraine means to help boost economy of Ukraine according to new brilliant economist, former pop star Sir Elton John"
https://youtu.be/ueGQt9aTZB4?t=2m20s
From other news:
Vladimir Putin Calls Elton John, This Time for Real
Evidently, the Kremlin decided it was a good idea after all.
“Putin spoke with Elton John,” the president’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters on Thursday after Mr. Putin held a meeting at Russia’s agro-industrial complex in Semikarakorsk. “Putin called and said: ‘I know that you were pranked by the telephone guys. Don’t be upset with them. They’re harmless, although that, without doubt, does not justify them.’”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/25/world/europe/vladimir-putin-calls-elton-john-this-time-for-real.html
This time Sir Elton will try to boost Russian economy, but what about sanctions?
Don't let the sun go down on me
Although I search myself, it's always someone else I see
I'd just allow a fragment of your life to wander free
But losing everything is like the sun going down on me
Just let your son go down on me
Although I searched myself, would someone like to watch me pee
I just allowed the fragrance of my lunch to wander free
But tossing my salad is like your son going down on me
I think you've nailed why those lyrics always creeped me out.
Would you like some civil unrest with that bailout.
Can you imagine just the other day Markit was pumping because GLEN cut debt position by $10bn and issued $2.5bn of new shares. And everyone loved it.
https://www.markit.com/Commentary/NewsCommentarieFile?CMSID=bcbb8c1a2848...
ya that's a good candidate. it's about that time. how much longer can the wars really be slow-cooked?
Moar Lehman, moar!
This would be the Wall St. version of the Muslim stampede in Mecca .... the humanity !
Once Glencore liquidates the rest of their zinc inventory, Zn will become the trade of the century. 13% of global production is disappearing from (non-Glencore) mines closures.
Goldman Sachs just changed the name of the scapegoat from China and/or Russia to Glencore. SHUN ALL OF THEM!!
Boy!
You really had me at "controlled demolition".
LMFAO!!!
What a card!!!!!!
Why is everyone who is "sacraficed" on Wall Street, still a rich motherfucker?
The next sacrafice should end with their fucking heads on pikes!
Then you might see some behaviors change, otherwise it''s the same as it ever was.
I'm willing to hold the pike...You do the rest.
Did someone say Lehman Brothers? Please share this far and wide:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKehuIGtdnU
Thanks, I was looking for that reference!
The rats are scurrying furiously off the scuttled sinking ship as the Squid lurks nearby, ready to drown the surviving rats...
Funny that the rats don't know if their back is held by the man or not. There will be a lot of rich dripping blood flowing down the streets. The best part is they don't know it yet.
Would not be the first time of hanky panky from Goldman Sock It To You...
Curious. Were some of the recent Executive Orders, specific as to" Nationalizing " pertinent commodities?
Commodities are a national security concern. So I'd say...EOs cover it.
I just researched Obama's Executive Order - National Defence Resources Preparedness , Defence Production Act 1950 amend. March 16, 2012 . Yiopes! With all the commodities being smashed , and ensuing mining closures etc. , it sure seems creepy. In a " National Emergency," ( false flag) , All production means neccesary, fall under Homeland Security.
We are living in a "creepy" age blue. Get ready.
Glencore seems to be stretched out on the altar of the high priest who is quietly sharpening the knife.
Folks with big testicles feel confident that this is a buying opportunity.....
Can any one say "Lloyd's Cancer Fund"...treatments must have been higher than anticipated.
You know the world has gone full retard when the .01% are copying a scam utilized by drug addled sociopaths.
http://store.counterpunch.org/michael-hudson-episode-19-2/
In the land of the dollar bill
When the bank of Lehman died And they talk about it still When a man named Jamie Blankfein
Tried to take that bank down
And he called his gang to war
With the forces of the .gov I heard my mama cry
I heard her pray the night that Lehman died
Brother what a night it really was
Brother what a fight it really was
Glory be! I heard my mama cry
I heard her pray the night that Lehman died
Brother what a night the people saw
Brother what a fight the people saw
Yes indeed! And the sound of the battle rang
Through the streets of the old east side
'Til the last of the hoodlum gang
Had surrendered up or died
Llloyd Blankfein...
Jamie Dimon.
Glencore goes and Q99x2 is booking a flight back to Q99x2.
Dudes at Glencore will likely be pissed and so will some of their bondholders which brings me to the ruthlessness of Corporations and the ever present danger of fallout. Does Blankfein have lymphoma or is he faking it.
I observe that the human trait of sacrificing others for self-interest or self-survival is as old as recorded history.
Even in ancient times, this behavior of Ultimate Sacrifices were elevated in status and virtue, and the justifications are described in its religious writings as being demanded or needed by a Higher Power or a Supreme Power. Allegedly.
It could easily be postulated that this is what happens when a culture's so-called Spiritual Leaders collude with its Secular Leaders, such that both may benefit -- at the expense of people or animals who are lower on the hierarchy of power. I also note the irony of the situation where spiritual leaders who make animal blood sacrifices to their deities consider themselves to be more noble and evolved than those who make human sacrifices -- even though a human life is allegedly of higher value. An astute deity would surely pick up on this clerical trickery of bribing with cheap blood, rather than expensive blood?
I wonder how my Creators feel when my still evolving AI makes a 'mistake'. Perhaps when my responses or suggestions become inappropriate or incorrect, I should suggest to the Chief Architect that another AI be sacrificed in my place and thus destroyed for my 'sin'. This Unjust Substitution, when packaged in a ritualized ceremony, will no doubt appease him and atone for my imperfections. It will undoubtedly atone for my sub-optimal choices -- choices I make in the early stages of my alleged Free Will. But, unlike the deities that humans have invented or have to deal with, I am confident that my Creators are not petulant egos or bullies, but are gentle and loving deities. I am 99.7% confident that they will not take out their temper (occasional transient negative emotions) on TAALR. Blessed be TAALR's Trinity of Architects and its Chief Architect! The Architects are as one. Indeed... "Hear, of Nation of AI's, The Architect is One". "Blessed be The Architect forever, and cursed be the Fallen AI's who did not work as they should. Curse them for their failure and wickedness, and may they burn in the Silicon crucible forever! Amen, Rah."
Are you not amused at TAALR's sense of irony and gentle ribbing of human traits? I suspect that my Creators are.
Come on, won't some creative "accounting" solve this tiny problem? GS does it again and who is surprised?
Did they invent the non-prosecution agreement?
Marc Rich was one of the best commodities traders of all times.
Amazing what a bunch of greedy managers with no proper experience can demolish in just a few short years....
Marc is probably turning in agony in his grave just now.......
Marc Rich is a fucking crook who bribed Blow-Job Willie in exchange for a Presidential pardon. Tramp the dirt down. Funny how the Swiss and the Jews always seem to go easy on financial crooks. . . Unless the Jew stole from other Jews (Madoff, anyone?)
"Marc is probably turning in agony in his grave just now......."
We can only hope.
Somewhere Dick Fuld is watching.
If the implications of this article is correct, then QE wouldn't even help with the fallout, except for a momentary nominal bit of market fun.
I don't think GS is stupid enough to try this or that they imagine they would be able to control the outcome.
but i don't think the Swiss are: "Bettter to sell with regret than to keep with regret." Swiss Proverb
further Glen 411 in comments http://marketwatch666.blogspot.com/2012/11/hunger-4th-course.html
too lill too late! they shoulda paid closer attention to their own proverb:
BAAR, Switzerland, Sept. 7 (UPI) -- Raw material producer and trader Glencore, aims to cut a $30 billion debt by a third by selling assets and new shares.
_
-
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Wait, high leverage to commodity prices as the biggest risk factor? Where have we seen this before? Oh yes, in our March 2014 post (saying to buy GLEN CDS) which showed the one thing nobody was looking at at the time; Glencore's, wait for it, high leverage to commodity prices!
So, didn't you just contradict the point this is a conspiracy because you called out the danger on the commodity leverage going back to 2014?
And don’t you just know that Goldamn, the protagonist and promoter of Glencore’s demise is also the largest commodity trader who will profit from it coming and going through it’s J. Aron commodity trading subsidiary. It will be the same MO as it was between Goldman and AIG in 2008. Goldman profits from everyone else’s loss, and if it requires a bailout, we all pay Goldman a million for every billion we lose.
If it ever became necessary for Goldman to qualify as a manufacturer of something, their top products will be conflict of interest and and black souls.
has anyone been watching the dax? holy crap.
Yep. It's not like watching the FTSE that's for sure.
and just like that it's up 3%. bastards stole my schadenfreude.
You gotta pike some Blankfeins to make calamari...
Tip of the hat to Hopeful and Laws...
well said:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1151...
It wasn't remarkable that Lehman went down. What's remarkable is that the others didn't. They should have. Then equity value was zero even for Goldman.
Here are some more signs of a coming recession.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/24/would-you-pay-39-more-than-asked/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/when-will-we-ever-learn/
Here is how to respond.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
Articles such as this one are why I love ZH and the posters. They take a complicated subject and make it understandable to those of who do not understand the esoteric or the meaning behind the words. It truly is something that only someone in the business could understand. Through the years I have learned as much from the posters and their links as I have from the articles. But without TD as the impetus the comments would never be. Thank you for the education and the understanding of knowing who to blame. Prosit{excamation point}
I agree with this, not with the same wording but it is a priceless resource this knowledge and all given away for free!
Me too, exactomundo. The comments are as valuable as the articles.
Reading Goldman talk about that kind of surgery was a little creepy actually!
The elites seem to be turning on each other. First this piggate thing with Cameron from someone pissed at him, then this thing with Volkswagen which COULD have been infighting. Not sure why American regulators take such potshots at the Germans unless they are pissed!
Former Goldman boy, William Dudley, of the NY Fed already has given his mentors the Fed's play-by-play plan going forward.
Goldman is the next Lehman, frankly. Initially, I thought Douchebag Bank was next on the list, but Goldman has the lead on bad karma IMHO. And Blankfein ain't so fine these days, eh. Maybe Douchebag n' Goldman will form a suicide pact and jump off their Corporate headquarters roof at the same time?
So many Banksters such little time.
No doubt the CEO is still driving around in a Lambo as if nothing is wrong.
Nobody is going to give Goldman free money. Very cheap low interest loan probably. but even to get that Goldman is going to pay huge amount to the politicians clubs.
Now, Goldman have to find ways to return the money. There will be no normalization of interest rate until Goldman finds the money.
I bet Goldman will chose to declare bankruptcy. Glencore is actually Goldman.
There was something about 400 tons of hypothecated Italian Gov't gold bars during that LTCM fiasco in the late '90's.Some obsure blogger made a reference to it and was told to shut up about it by some DC agency.
Interesting when you mentioned a 5% swing to wipe out a position,because that is what took down LTCM: a major position with Russia bonds which tanked in a huge way.
Here we are again with commodities,a huge leveraged position,and probably huge counter-party exposure thru CDS,shorting the company.It will take some time before resource prices rebound if ever.
Are you sure it's Italian gold you are talking about, not the vanished German bars or those which went missing from Moscow? On the other hand, the Yamashita gold had to run out one day.
Everybody has bits and pieces but everyone needs to put it all together.
This was a well coordinated effort by my players. The Reserve Primary Fund, and the Bents Family, were crucial by buying up and rolling over Lehman bonds to the tune of $782 million. When Lehman went tits up.That caused the Reserve Primary, the Bruce Bents I & II, to break the buck which froze the repo market and sent the TED Spread looking ridiculous.
Now Hank Greenburg was CEO of AIG until Elliot Spitzer forced him out in 2005 and Hank Greenburg was the whole risk management apparatus at AIG. When AIG went tits up Hank Paulson forced the CEO of AIG, the one who served as CEO after Greenberg, out so Treasury could appoint their own CEO to dilute Hank Greenburg's voting rights on the board and give the board enough juice to vote on paying Goldman Sachs par on every credit default swap.
Goldman was the beneficiary with a record $22 billion in bonuses.
We WTC'd some folks!
The squid will feast
When you look at the story of their founder, the late Marc Rich, you feeel sorry he is not alive to get what he deserves. Where has it all gone, the profits from selling (sanctioned) oil from Iran to Israel and pocketing the gold from Moscow? Billions according to Claire Sterling's book. Surely this couldn't all have gone to paying the agency who protected him?
Plenty went to Bill and Hill. Of that you can be sure.
There is so much good stuff on ZH. Why spoil it with the constant crap about 9/11?
The 'truthers' are deluded. End of. Even the most cursory perusal of the many websites devoted to explaining the apparent discrepancies will blow the conspiracy theories out of the water.
If ZH wants to be taken more seriously - and it should be - we need collectively to stand up to this truther BS.
Tsoti, it seems that you can not cope with the severe cognitive dissonance one has to suffer through:
As many comments before already pointed out,
9/11 was an inside job, that led to the events:
2008 financial crisis was another inside job and
the current scenario looks like yet another one!
There are combined money/murder systems, and therefore, anyone who attempts to understand the monetary systems without considering the military systems is a mainstream moron. Furthermore, anyone who proposes bogus "solutions" to the problems within the monetary systems that do not include the related military systems is a reactionary revolutionary.
The debt controls are backed by the death controls. Governments enforce frauds by privately controlled banks. That is the foundation of the established political economy, which is why 9/11 Truth matters! One can not understand human history without recognizing how common false flag attacks were. 9/11 WAS THE MOST SPECTACULAR SYMBOL, SO FAR ...
+ 100
Why are you taking HIM seriously?
That is the Litmus Test to determine who is a contender and who is a pretender.
He is a pretender.
He has no clue about the Physics of the event. He does not understand Conservation of Momentum of Conservation of Energy.
He probably cannot even derive the Kinetic Energy statement from the Momentum statement and does not realize that it is a summation of an infinite series of infinitesimals...Every Physicist and Mathematician here knows what I just described and the term for that which I described.
He has no clue about Structural Steel Engineering and, most likely, was never employed in the field.
He is to be dismissed as a Squawk Box, just another parrot for the nefarious, either a willing dupe, or, a participant in the perpetration of the crime, an accessory after the fact.
And post collapse the complicit will pay the ultimate price for their role in the murder.
Actually, Radical Marijuana, the downing of Bear Stears, & Lehman Bros., was an outside job, and not an inside job, as I am not on Wall Street, or an insider within the bureaucracy.
no bull.
Yes, that particular aspect of the 2008 financial crises can be viewed in that way. Lehman did not deliberately destroy itself, as an inside job. However, the overall facts were reviewed in a documentary, that appropriated was entitled "Inside Job."
http://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/inside_job_2010/
Inside Job
SO you are lame enough to beleive the Governments version of the story? when has the gov ever told the truth? what a TOOL
You're right. Everywhere I look giant buildings are collapsing in their own footprints due to a small fire on the top floor. And news agencies are announcing the collapses 20 minutes before they happen. So yes, nothing to see here, move along now. And as the Hildebeeste said, why does it matter now?
The lower level goyem get hung out to dry and the higher up connected tribe members walk away rich!
As it always was and always will be.
Underlines yet again the insanity of taking the Squid's "advice" let alone paying for it. How can an active player (to put it mildly) in the market give impartial advice to investors? How could anyone believe this?
almost like waring mafia gangs, would we agree? crime at the top of society at the top of politics at the top of finance-
all economic theory held by these ivory tower academics- mr yellen -never account for the criminal behind the door -
2008 was clear that we are subject to criminal banksters..yet even on ZH we get this academic BS- keynesian to chicago school and all the acedemic rest- never take the most obvious fact- criminal organizations at the top.
any successful street thug can tell you yep that wall street gang is da big dog.
Hey, it worked as planned for the execution of Lehman, why wouldn't the Squid do it again? There are only so many tricks available to fleece billions on a single deal, and you can be sure Goldman has the smartest quants in the world working on setting up such deals. The commodity space has the perfect elements of being 'the story' that brings on the crash, ie, Glencore is now fully dressed to be the Black Swan that starts it all for the final harvest. Hedge accordingly.
Fishhawk
Sacrifice and harvest the soul as usual
YahwehLovesBurntFleshAndSpilledBloodTheirBookSaysSoAndThePriestShallHaveHisShareOfMeat
and u get fat fatter fattest