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That escalated quickly...
Charts:Bloomberg
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"Safe", just like tap dancing in a mine field.....
Palladium is off to the races!
http://www.goldsqueeze.com/analysis/meanwhile-palladium-is-surging
Whew!
These bonds sure will protect us.
Protect you like chains...
Oh baby you can feel it now, we're on the move.
Gold Bitchez...I pick up pennies
the Pope is putting me to sleep. Why He a speak slow a slowly?
Gold is priced in $US. Of course it goes up when the dollar goes down. Not that I don't like the price action =D
Talking fast in Eeenglish, ees easy for you, for me ees very deefeecult!
Pope Francis
Confirming a reacceleration of the global economy I guess.
Bond Bubble formation before the burst
"D'Von!! Get the tables!"
Short gold at $1160
Not sure why people are junking this. The paper farce still continues and I'm pretty sure that's what slaughterer is talking about.
You see gold rising $100 a day for a week, or the COMEX admit they dont really have the inventories they claim, then we might have something to get excited about.
Still time to cover. Good luck.
So your saying now is a good time to short silver?
This is a great pop in PMs to short for the short term. Nothing is safe now.
Kitco says it's "short covering" in the PMs. If the shorts were actually forced to cover it's Buzz Lightyear mode. Comex is what 250-to-1 paper to physical??
Kitco is a horrible site for any kind of honest PM analysis. They went down the tubes years ago.
Agreed. They're the MSNBC of gold. But the site is laid out good, good for current price info.
Realize it's paper short covering and it makes more sense.
What part of no one takes delivery do some of you not seem to get?
I left the rest out.
Bond Bubble formation
Witches face is going to appear to algorithm today. Be careful.
More people losing faith, seeing the global fraud for what it is.
Lots of chatter about Deutsche Bank heading for an iceberg bigger than the one that the Titanic hit
I dislike such graphics as hell. The gold price just has moved 1 % so does the USD. It looks as if hell breaks loose, that's not statistics but propaganda. That's poor.
Updating your post +2%
this has the makings of a roller coaster on a downward travel
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
http://is.gd/5vle0j
Strategy Snippet
You can have too much of a good thing
The Fed is helping so much it hurts
We have noted that each incremental instance of monetary stimulus has been met with diminishing returns for risk assets. We think further easing, or a lack of tightening, in the U.S. is a negative for stocks. The expectation for Thursday’s FOMC policy decision was a rate hike and dovish commentary, or no hike and hawkish commentary. Instead, the Fed left rates unchanged and delivered a dovish message. In response, the S&P 500 sold off into the close and was down the next day. As we have noted recently, the biggest risk to equities could be another round of QE—suggesting that $4.5tn was not enough to prop up the U.S. economy. Also, the read across for global risk assets could be that significant liquidity provided by central banks may not always be sufficient to drive markets higher.
Tactical delay or real economic deterioration?
Our base case is that the Fed’s lack of action is a tactical delay, and therefore does not impact our outlook. We are maintaining our recently lowered S&P 500 year-end target of 2100. We note that our technical team sees risks to the bull market, and our global quant team’s Global Wave has been declining for the last eight months. Our economists’ real- time indicator of global growth, the GLOBALcycle, softened in August (led by EMs), and we will be closely watching for signs of stabilization or further deterioration.
The Fed on hold = more of the same
The story for the last five years looks set to continue for at least the next few months. With easy monetary policy and a scarcity of growth and value, we would expect to see positive momentum in Growth and Dividend Yield stocks continue. But, given our economists’ expectations for a pick-up in global growth over the next several quarters, buying cheap, unloved cyclicals could start to play out. This would also be true for Energy, which is the ultimate pain trade. Energy has record low valuations, ownership and investor sentiment, and our commodity strategists forecast a year-end rally in oil prices.
Multinationals: intersection of quality & weak dollar beneficiaries
Buying multinationals looks increasingly attractive. These high quality stocks are beaten- down, inexpensive and under-owned by active funds. The companies have produced upside earnings surprises, and the stocks have been outperforming since mid-August, despite the volatility associated with concerns about global growth. The performance of foreign- exposed stocks is now more correlated to moves in the US dollar than at any point in nearly a decade. Dollar strength has been a source of pain for multinationals so far this year, but this could reverse if a dovish Fed exerts more downward pressure on the dollar.
China risks - avoid Materials
With the recent slowdown in China, we are mindful of the risk of a recession. The area most exposed to China is the Materials sector. This sector’s performance is most highly correlated with China’s stock market, as well as with monetary conditions in the region. Metals and Mining looks particularly unattractive given overcapacity in China, and screens as a Value Trap in our work. Health Care is the least correlated with China.
interesting gold chart. What a load of baloney.
Selling almost stopped. Demand didn't. While production supply is falling.
The market reaction to the Fed has little to do with the fundamentals, and a lot to do with mass psychology.
However, over time the market fundamentals will have a big effect on mass psychology.
The problem with the Fed...and with debt-based fiat currencies in general, is that their whole raison-d-etre, is to provide real wealth to those who did nothing to earn it.
Shortly they deliver 'something-for-nothing' to their constituents.
However, because we live in a universe governed by the conservation of energy, for the banking-government sector to get and distribute 'something-for-nothing' to some, others must get 'nothing-for-something'.
Those 'others' are the ones who are producing the things that make continued existence possible...and disincentivizing them is a slow path to extinction.
Punishing life-supporting activity is foolish...though people are slow to be driven away from it. Once driven away in enough numbers there's nothing to do but collapse and/or die.
The fiat currency, 'flexible-currency' road was a suicidal one all along in the same way that a smoking habit is a slow suicide. Just because an early death comes after decades of abuse does not make it less real.
Correct and in fact it is much worse. In the modern monetary system bankers/financiers are nothing but overcompensated useless middlemen between the computer/printer (where money is created WITHOUT any real collateral) and the producer/consumer in the real economy.
Time to execute the middlemen. I see many producers and consumers cutting out the middleman already, this will start occuring more and more...
white collar obsolescence?? the bulk of gov't employees----
It is only "Paper" and "Bits"
Nothing "Hard" about that.
Dumping dollars and buying treasuries... am I missing something here.
According to GMP Securities:
This week, it is still all about the Fed…
81% chance FOMC comments will be interpreted bearishly
Even after last week’s FOMC rate decision, it is still all about the Fed. Every time an FOMC member speaks out, markets move. What investors may not be fully appreciating is that 13 out of 17 FOMC members believe that the Fed will raise rates in 2015. That is a considerably higher conviction level than is generally held by investors. We know one of the four doves is Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, whose views are well outside the mainstream. We can’t be as sure about the rest. But every time a (non-Kocherlakota) FOMC member speaks, there is an 81% (13/16) chance that their views are likely to be more bearish than the market consensus. Therefore, over the near term investors should treat FOMC governor speeches and interviews as potentially bearish events.
If markets rally on Yellen comments, sell into strength
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking today (without taking questions) on inflation and monetary policy. We doubt she will make a case for or against a December rate hike so soon after the last FOMC meeting. We expect her to paint a balanced picture, befitting her role as Fed Chair and reflecting her desire to keep the Fed’s options open. In comparison to most other FOMC members, her balanced commentary may appear dovish and allow markets to rally. On a trading basis, we would be inclined to sell into such a rally. As we argue above, we expect further FOMC member chatter to remain a focus and expect it to tend to push markets lower.
We see downside risk to S&P 500 as min 1867 and max 1700
We continue to see fear of Fed tightening as a storm cloud hanging over the equity market that will likely remain in place until the Fed actually raises rates (December in our view). Fed fears, negative earnings revisions, down yoy earnings, and valuation risk could push markets lower in the coming weeks. We see downside risk as somewhere between the August lows (S&P500 1867) and a 20% correction (S&P500 1700).
Expect better equity performance in 2016
Looking ahead to 2016 the outlook is more encouraging. Once the Fed starts raising rates we expect to have more clarity on the pace of future rate hikes, which should be more gradual than many expect. In addition, earnings should start to grow again by 2016 as the negative yoy impact from the rising USD and falling oil prices should fade. An attractive buying opportunity should present itself between now and year end.
More cow bell! LOL
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/legendary-investor-crispin-odey-goes-to...
Legendary investor Crispin Odey goes to cash as stocks are ‘overextended’
By Brett Arends
Published: Sept 24, 2015 11:51 a.m. ET
The U.K. hedge fund manager says ‘we are now due’ a recession
One of Europe’s most brilliant investment managers is warning of a new global financial crisis on the horizon and has moved a huge chunk of his portfolio into cash.
Crispin Odey, who founded London-based Odey Asset Management in 1991, says the turmoil that began last month has only just begun, and that equity markets could fall much further.
“Our overriding conviction is that we are nearer the beginning of this process than the end,” the hedge fund manager warns clients in his latest report. Stock market valuations worldwide “are so overextended that they will need to fall 30%-40%” before they offer a compelling bargain, he argues.
Astonishingly, Odey now holds 29% of his retail investment fund, Odey Opus, in cash — even though the fund is typically oriented toward growth. The firms manages about $11.7 billion in assets.
It’s easy to take prognostications with a pinch of salt. There’s always someone somewhere predicting doom. The British seem to specialize in it. I’ve been lunching and dining with a variety of accomplished money managers in London in the past few days, and each one has been even more terrifying than the last.
But Odey is no ordinary money manager. He is a living legend in London financial circles, and is usually bullish as well. His Opus fund is up 270% since it was launched in 2001, three times as much as its benchmark.
Odey argues that China’s devaluation augurs an era of financial crisis across emerging markets, including currency wars, tariffs and the formation of trading blocs. China’s ailing economy, he says, will be the new U.S. housing crash. Meanwhile, the world is struggling under debt burdens that have not been eased by years of so-called monetary easing.
There is a recession every decade and “we are now due ours.”
Yikes!
If Odey’s right, then I was way too early when I began buying stocks last month. (It wouldn’t be the first time.) But I don’t want to sit almost entirely in cash either. Buy often, buy early?