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When Two Uber-Bears Sit Down: Albert Edwards And Bob Janjuah Expect The Fed To Cut To -5%
When two legendary "bears" (actually what they really are is realists who refuse to drink the Fed's, the establishment's, and the media's Kool-Aid) such as Albert Edwards and Bob Janjuah sit down, while the outcome is hardly as dramatic as the Stay Puft marshmallow man emerging, one certainly expects very provocative and contrarian observations to emerge. This is precisely what happened one week ahead of the Fed’s last meeting.
Here is the story as told by Edwards himself in his latest note to SocGen clients:
I enjoyed afternoon tea with my fellow strategist Bob Janjuah of Nomura (aka Bob the Bear). When we occasionally meet up, we lie back and look up for a bit of clear blue sky thinking – okay, I know it’s London and the sky is usually overcast, but that sort of fits in with our bear view of the world! Among other things we wondered why no-one else entertains the possibility that rates might bottom at minus 5% Fed Funds in the coming downturn.
The next US recession will probably arrive a lot sooner than most investors expect and will likely see more desperate monetary experimentation from the Fed. Bob and I thought that this time we would see deeply negative interest rates in the US (and Europe). Sweden has led the way, dipping their toe below the water line with their current -0.35% policy rates but there will be more, much more along these lines. For if -0.35% is possible, why not - 3.5% or less? It goes without saying that deeply negative interest rates would be accompanied by a massively expanded QE4 in the US. The last seven years of exploding central bank balance sheets will seem like Bundesbank monetary austerity compared to what is to come.
And so it came to pass last week – just one negative dot in the Fed policymakers’ projections for interest rates set the markets abuzz that central banks were no longer to be constrained by the zero interest rate bound. The very next day the Bank of England’s chief economist and policy wonk, Andrew Haldane, also raised the possibility of not just negative interest rates, but banning cash if people hoard it in an attempt to attain a heady 0% return – link. Wow, even Bob and I hadn’t thought of that!
Yes, it is odd that when push comes to shove, not even the biggest skeptics could conceive of the world that is about to be unleashed by tenured economists who have never held a real job in their lives, and yet - somehow - are micromanaging the entire world.
So: NIRP, QE4... or money paradrops as Citigroup shocked everyone with its modest proposal yesterday?
Actually, why not all three - after all, what does the Fed have left to lose? It appears gold is finally getting the memo that the final debasement of the reserve currency is about to be unleashed.
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I'll take a loan at -5% please.
That’s what everyone will say, but you will only get negative rates for secured loans, ie mortgages. Home values will skyrocket into a super bubble and crash from a higher level.
I’m noticing a pattern, First Haldane, then Englander, and now Edwards I’m seeing a pattern.
Average people won't be able to take advantage of NIRP no more than they can ZIRP...that is reserved for large corporations, banks, and those uber wealthy that don't need the money. "Normal" people that want and need loans will still pay through the nose and jump through hoops.
But ZIRP is coming and will be used for stock buybacks and record corporate debt.
One look at the linked charts makes this plain.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3522366-demographics-the-real-opponent-the-fed-has-been-fighting-for-decades
I need to borrow 80 billion dollars at -5%, and interest only, kthxbye. Enjoy your new "ASSET" and make sure you have my address right for the checks...
Yet gold will fall.
Nothing to see here, everything is perfectly normal and Okay! :)
Dam't Janet...don't cross the streams !!
Mammon and Kraken will be unleashed and run rampant.
Aren't negative numbers imaginary in the old-world math...only whole numbers 'exist'.
Even Zero was considered illegal in the middle-ages, so going negative may be the 3rd-rail to the economic system, and may be a swan event.
NIRP may be going to the 'other side'.
Seriously, have negative interest rates ever existed in modern times for business or consumers (maybe in EU countries) ? (besides obviously rent, fees, expenses, insurance, ...for storing items.) NIRP has to cause some sort of inflection in flows that is unnatural.
Have negative interest rates, printed that way, ever been used before ?
Who says rates bottom @ -5% or anywhere. There is no bottom with the current regime.
However I would expect the FED to be long gone before -5%
Interest rates are to debt based money, what silver was to the Denarius
Good! Even a better buy before going to the moon!
Negative real rates are what drives gold up. You can verify and validate it. If there is no inflation (shadowstats is specious at best) then the best place to put your money is in gold and that is what happened in the 70s; inflation was high and rates hadn't caught up yet. Negative rates will light a fire under gold. Watch and see. There is nowhere else to put it safely.
shadowstats is specious at best
Bah -you got sumthin to put up against his CV?
I will gladly pay you 1/2 the price of this hamburger, tomorrow...if you give it to me today.
You guys are looking at this the wrong way around.
Try to remember - your bank balance is an unsecured loan from you to your bank - you are the one that will be feeling the negative rate on that unsecured loan that you made to the bank. ie - Your bank account.
It won't be working the other way around , SUCKERS !!!!!!!!
Exactly.
There are simply too many faux rich. One way to reign them in will be with negative rates.
You've got that exactly backwards.
NIRP will hurt the real rich (i.e., savers who have accumulated capital).
Higher interest rates will crush the faux rich (i.e., holders of vast debt at low rates).
How does NIRP hurt the "real rich"? Depending on the capital that one has accumulated, it seems to me that it shouldn't really matter what the economic environment is like. Context of "capital" is what I'm really interested in. No or low debt, no or low mortgage, no or low car payments... is this a bad thing in any time period?
As for the debt-ridden "faux rich", are they going to be let off the hook in a default setting, if one were to occur? I just don't see a scenario where the banks are going to come in and take everything from those sitting on loans. That is sure-fire rebellion spark.
Captain, You didn't explicitly highlight that this ZH article COMPLETELY MISSES the point that Haldane made about HOW it's possible to have NIRP. - Your blog post (which you kindly linked above) highlights it clearly.
ZH-ers, note the following (while appreciating WHO is saying it [i.e. a policy maker for the Bank of England no less]):
"A more radical proposal still would be to remove the ZLB (Zero Level Bound) constraint entirely by abolishing paper currency.
This, too, has recently had its supporters (for example, Rogoff (2014)). As well as solving the ZLB problem, it has the added advantage of taxing illicit activities undertaken using paper currency, such as drug-dealing, at source.
A third option is to SET AN EXPLICIT EXCHANGE RATE between paper currency and electronic (or bank) money. Having paper currency steadily DEPRECIATE relative to digital money effectively generates a negative interest rate on currency, provided electronic money is accepted by the public as the unit of account rather than currency."
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2015/spee...
And there we have it people, watch the value of your cash reduce without even spending (even more so than with price inflation).
Also, say good-bye to ALL privacy you enjoyed with cash.
Surely you're all buying PMs and taking physical delivery aren't you, AREN'T YOU?!?!?!
AgentH
I think that your last option does not have the HIDE factor. They have to do things quietly and hidden, that would be quantifiable and visible.
Just trying to understand all this stuff...
repost delete.
Negative rates?
I saw another comment on ZH yesterday....(cant find it now)
The guy was taking the "malevolent" FED tack, saying the Taper was timed to royally fuck up everyone and that a Dec. rate RISE (after this September's deferral) is poised to do further damage to the EM and by extension, US...
why not ease the tax burden? isn;t that the same thing as QE paradrop
The people who need help the most (to buy food and shelter), those who earn less than $8k/year, do not pay tax on this low income, and so will not be helped by tax cuts. They need cash in their hands!!!
That cash is already, and has been for a while, getting placed directly into their (people with under 14K/year earnings) hands. The IRS EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit) can easily double their salary. Getting 6-8K "refunds" with zero tax revenue paid in is average or less being paid out each and every year.
It is getting to a point where anyone making less than 65K a year would be better off "disabling" or removing themselves from the workforce in a way that ensures they get welfare from one of the 4 key methods... it is tax free money, so less is still more.
How can one live on that amount of money... no bills. Electric- free, heat- free, phone- free, food- free, rent- free. You just have to be willing to hold the line (for show) that you is pau. if you EARN 45 - 65k a year and have a family of 4-5, you are a sucker. You make less take home than full welfare take home, and you need to be away from home all week to do it. Collapse? YOU BET-CHA!
haha... you must be new here. Government easing a burden?? The cocksuckers are in the business of creating burdens. Don't be all logical about this. These retards actually think they can get out of a ditch by digging deeper.
That's a depositor's return, borrowers still get to pay 17.99%.
... while your salary gets cut 10% per year - good luck.
Court Martial for anybody in power publicly pushing for that.
USD would die instantly as world currency. USA would disolve within months as world would instantly stop using USD.
An outstanding result. I'm sold.
They'll try to outlaw cash and then things will become really nasty. When it's all done, we'll be looking at several countries where one used to be and they'll run from free to dictatorship, so time to start deciding how you want to live.....
I'd highly look into to TX. We have a solidy independent population, sure they may have captured a few of our cities - but I'd say we have a willing 500k-1 million man army. At teh end of the day the losers in Austin will be counted as insignifcant. I was in the capitol building with my gun the other day, they have Confederate States of America marbled in the floor along with the Republic of Texas. We are trying to take the gold back. I thinnk if you have to stay in the US Texas is about as good as it gets. Greg Abbott is the real deal, unlike Perry. TX will fight the NWO, it may lose but never count a real Texan out. Even the Mexicans are conservative here. Did I mention we are armed, have our own State Army, electrical grid, ports, and missile defense.
Well Texas will need to contact the resistance in a few other good states.. Keep the lines open up here to Pennsylvania ..
I was recently in AL the other day buying a used truck. I met some good ole boys and made sure to tell them, TX is with you and we support your efforts. I was trying to be a good ambassador. They seemed pleased with that as I posed for a pictures under a giant 50 ft confederate flag.
Uh huh. You also have pigs going nuts with asset forfeiture and harmless recreational substances like pot are cracked down on in an openly fascist way.
It's not perfect but I don't like retarded weedheads anyway. I agree the police state is rampant here, out of control actually. But I've lived here for 3 years and not once have I been pulled over and I had a Saleen Convertible.
The number of retarded weedheads is insignificant compared to the number of people who actually partake. Trust me - most pot enthusiasts regard the dreadlocked hackey sack no-job crowd with just as much contempt as you do.
I agree is should be decriminalized for small amounts. I used to smoke 4-5 times a day and I know how badly effects the brain. I wish I could go back to not make that mistake again.
go back and decide not to quit? That is about the only thing that will keep this PIG from all of our doorsteps. Anything more than a local community of likeminded people is subject to ills from the .gov to the FSA. Texas has size on it's side. Roving bands of looters will not drive that far for uncertain gain. And it also has people who will step into the gap and use deadly force to help eachother. The left coast? If you are still there and have no plans for exit in the next year you are scroood.
I said I wish I could go back so I could never do it. Smoking weed is stupid.
As a proud Texan I agree and the northeastern liberals will be drowning in their self-made cesspool and I don't think we'll have any problems finding friends among the other states. And as for for Austin, we just throw a fence around it and charge admission to the zoo.....
yet you can't openly carry a handgun in public...Freedumb, fer shure.
Yes we can.....
make the weather.
don't wait for it.
:)
You'd be amazed at what people are saynig over here and what the consenses is. I'll tell you what, people are not just sitting around complaining. I'll leave it at that.
Texas free thinkers are a threat to NY and Washington. Which is exactly why it's being diluted with illegals. Democracy will then take care of the TX problem.
Signed..
Obama.
Yeah, saying. You need to look at voter turn out there.
http://i.imgbox.com/DBCyJzVf.png
If you remember TX history, we never fire the first shot, Goliad and the Alamo are cited as examples. There is a line that when crossed will trigger something.
you have been watching way too much MAD Max. Your apocalyptic version of this is laughable.
Typical retarded Cali comment. I used to live in SD for 10 years. Good luck buddy, you'll need it. Have fun worshiping the beast on earth, if you make it. Tell your freak fag friends to stay in your cali paraside too. LOL
When money fails, what does your idea of the future look like? Rainbows and unicorns? Everyone gathering around a fire on the beach singing songs to the guitar player's tune eating hot dogs and potato chips?
Ah – perfect timing. Current BLOOMBERG headline (no, you couldn't make it up):
U.S. Stocks Decline as Investors Crave More Guidance From Fed
NIRP a possibility? Who would have thunk it? Oh wait......, Glad to know that you two wild and crazy guys are catching up.
I don't see NIRP. The last time they got this close they "broke the buck". The money markets froze and the FED hit the panic button. Should they do something like that, time to buy physical gold and silver and as much physical cash as I can get. Assholes.
NIRP will come in one form or another. It's the inevitable path of a zero bound policy. If you wait that long to buy physical, then it will have been too late.
WHEN ONE "BASKS" IN ONES OWN SELF ADMIRED "GLORY" FOR TOO LONG - A SULPHUR LIKE ODOR STARTS TO PERMEATE THE ROOM!
COME ON GUYS!! ITS STANKY UP IN HERE NOW!!
STOP SNIFFING YOUR FINGERS.
If Edwards/Janjuah were on the Fed Committee everything would be fine: Gold at $2,000, ES at 2,500, and the (electronic) dollar debased by 30% or more. And these guys are supposed to be bears?
They are not advocating they are prognosticating
Better trot out hank the tanks Paulson , if they go negative and ban cash
If savers are penalized for holding cash, then I will put all my cash into real estate and PMs. Simple solution. Oh, and also into guns and bullets so that the govt can't confiscate it without losing a few of their own.
Many of us have been doing this for quite some time.
Good luck to you, better start today.
1 troy ounce gold shotgun slugs.
Think of the possibilities.
Don't forget some bitcoin ....
I have a Bitcoin savings account that pays 5% interest.
Imagine the payment on a million dollar house with a -5% 30 year loan.
MILLION DOLLAR HOMES FOR EVERYONE!!!!!!!
Wait what? A 200sq ft shack costs $2.5 million.... SON OF A BITCH!!!!!
Silicon Valley already has its $2.5m 200sq ft shacks.
and Vancouver.
Hey, tjat is GOOD. Makes NIRP. That would forced treasury to print more dollars. China would be forced to devalue. Next my country forced to devalue again. And american product would be prohibitively expensive. That import must be collapsed. VERY GOOD!
I'LL WAIT THAT DAY WOULD COME.
NOTE: My assets now is Farm lands. I ate rice from my fields. No need to buy.
Bwahahaha...
If the reply is UNLIMITED QE until hell freezes over it simply means that asset values go to ZERO.
The end game is when all asset values have no value in fiat terms and all Balance sheets are meaningless, as assets = debt; 'cos debt is near the asymptote of infinite and outweighs asset 1000/1 !
Capitalism, as we live it, is a python that eats it own tail.
Those who will not be addicts of the casino will have to invent a new game which is not fiat addicted.
Parallel worlds. One will eat the other later on, thats what always happens.
We are heading there but the Oligarchy world will create a lot of deadwood in that transformation until it truly goes dead under its own dystopian death march.
how much longer ?
solutions ?
when he said NIRP, Yellen laughed, we didnt discuss that today. i cant wait to rerun that soundbite
If the powers to be are EVEN discussing negative interest rates doesn't that cement the belief that we're being led to slaughter by complete psychopaths?!
Or . . . . . . . they are laying out the bait of NIRP and uberdove QE4eva only to reverse course as Goldman builds up a bigger long USD position.
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
http://is.gd/5vle0j
Strategy Snippet
You can have too much of a good thing
The Fed is helping so much it hurts
We have noted that each incremental instance of monetary stimulus has been met with diminishing returns for risk assets. We think further easing, or a lack of tightening, in the U.S. is a negative for stocks. The expectation for Thursday’s FOMC policy decision was a rate hike and dovish commentary, or no hike and hawkish commentary. Instead, the Fed left rates unchanged and delivered a dovish message. In response, the S&P 500 sold off into the close and was down the next day. As we have noted recently, the biggest risk to equities could be another round of QE—suggesting that $4.5tn was not enough to prop up the U.S. economy. Also, the read across for global risk assets could be that significant liquidity provided by central banks may not always be sufficient to drive markets higher.
Tactical delay or real economic deterioration?
Our base case is that the Fed’s lack of action is a tactical delay, and therefore does not impact our outlook. We are maintaining our recently lowered S&P 500 year-end target of 2100. We note that our technical team sees risks to the bull market, and our global quant team’s Global Wave has been declining for the last eight months. Our economists’ real- time indicator of global growth, the GLOBALcycle, softened in August (led by EMs), and we will be closely watching for signs of stabilization or further deterioration.
The Fed on hold = more of the same
The story for the last five years looks set to continue for at least the next few months. With easy monetary policy and a scarcity of growth and value, we would expect to see positive momentum in Growth and Dividend Yield stocks continue. But, given our economists’ expectations for a pick-up in global growth over the next several quarters, buying cheap, unloved cyclicals could start to play out. This would also be true for Energy, which is the ultimate pain trade. Energy has record low valuations, ownership and investor sentiment, and our commodity strategists forecast a year-end rally in oil prices.
Multinationals: intersection of quality & weak dollar beneficiaries
Buying multinationals looks increasingly attractive. These high quality stocks are beaten- down, inexpensive and under-owned by active funds. The companies have produced upside earnings surprises, and the stocks have been outperforming since mid-August, despite the volatility associated with concerns about global growth. The performance of foreign- exposed stocks is now more correlated to moves in the US dollar than at any point in nearly a decade. Dollar strength has been a source of pain for multinationals so far this year, but this could reverse if a dovish Fed exerts more downward pressure on the dollar.
China risks - avoid Materials
With the recent slowdown in China, we are mindful of the risk of a recession. The area most exposed to China is the Materials sector. This sector’s performance is most highly correlated with China’s stock market, as well as with monetary conditions in the region. Metals and Mining looks particularly unattractive given overcapacity in China, and screens as a Value Trap in our work. Health Care is the least correlated with China.
According to GMP Securities:
This week, it is still all about the Fed…
81% chance FOMC comments will be interpreted bearishly
Even after last week’s FOMC rate decision, it is still all about the Fed. Every time an FOMC member speaks out, markets move. What investors may not be fully appreciating is that 13 out of 17 FOMC members believe that the Fed will raise rates in 2015. That is a considerably higher conviction level than is generally held by investors. We know one of the four doves is Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, whose views are well outside the mainstream. We can’t be as sure about the rest. But every time a (non-Kocherlakota) FOMC member speaks, there is an 81% (13/16) chance that their views are likely to be more bearish than the market consensus. Therefore, over the near term investors should treat FOMC governor speeches and interviews as potentially bearish events.
If markets rally on Yellen comments, sell into strength
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking today (without taking questions) on inflation and monetary policy. We doubt she will make a case for or against a December rate hike so soon after the last FOMC meeting. We expect her to paint a balanced picture, befitting her role as Fed Chair and reflecting her desire to keep the Fed’s options open. In comparison to most other FOMC members, her balanced commentary may appear dovish and allow markets to rally. On a trading basis, we would be inclined to sell into such a rally. As we argue above, we expect further FOMC member chatter to remain a focus and expect it to tend to push markets lower.
We see downside risk to S&P 500 as min 1867 and max 1700
We continue to see fear of Fed tightening as a storm cloud hanging over the equity market that will likely remain in place until the Fed actually raises rates (December in our view). Fed fears, negative earnings revisions, down yoy earnings, and valuation risk could push markets lower in the coming weeks. We see downside risk as somewhere between the August lows (S&P500 1867) and a 20% correction (S&P500 1700).
Expect better equity performance in 2016
Looking ahead to 2016 the outlook is more encouraging. Once the Fed starts raising rates we expect to have more clarity on the pace of future rate hikes, which should be more gradual than many expect. In addition, earnings should start to grow again by 2016 as the negative yoy impact from the rising USD and falling oil prices should fade. An attractive buying opportunity should present itself between now and year end.
At some point , the term Cash is king.. has to start working, real cash, not levered borrowed, inflated ones and zeros..
barter Society will look a lot like a Saturday morning Yard sale
At some not-too-distant time actual cash will be eliminated. I'm talkin' a few years, not decades.
The 10yr will come to within a hair's breath of 0%.
Ideally, you should load-up on RE now. When Mortgage rates hit 0%, sell.
Better to load up on mortgage debt at negative rates as the ultimate outcome of all this will eventually be hyper inflation. That makes your real estate skyrocket.
These guys may be right but the enormous blind spot that zh and it's fellow morons don't understand as Napier and others have explained the dollar will still rise and pms will still disappoint
Many here and other venues, have noted that the "Average" American doesn't know anything about the Federal Reserve.
Quite Right.
An attempt to Ban Cash would bring the Federal Reserve Front and Center to the American Public, or to put it in Political Terms, Front and Center to a Double Barrel Shotgun.
And that is precisely what it will be: Political Terms.
I have said before, and reiterate, Banning Cash is NOT Politically Viable in the United States - and even if it were, it is NOT Legally Viable.
Aside from the patent Violation of the "Unlawful Taking Clause" of the 5th Amendment, there are a number of obvious legal infirmities, and others will be found.
This will also bring Front and Center the Constitutional Questions of the Control of Coin and Currency that have been dormant since 1913.
Finally, Banning Cash will do no good.
Central Banks are in "Zugzwang" and "Banning" the trifle of actual Cash will NOT alter these realities - only jeopardize "their" Powers.
Many here think our Constitution doesn't mean anything, but they would be wrong.
Notice it is the "Bank of England" floating this - the day is soon to arrive when people are going to realize that our Constitution does indeed matter, and will see the difference that underlies America.
Anyone who thinks Central Banks operate in a Political Vacuum, and are immune to Political Realities is Delusional, and will be Disabused of such Delusions presently.
Correct. NIRP long enough, at a large enough rate, reduces outstanding debt. This will increase money velocity. People will have money to buy essentials like gold, silver, food and shelter.
This keeps the money makers out of the hangman's noose.
The more unstable the entire system looks - the less people will spend - removal of cash and negative interest rates will freak out almost everyone even the most sophisticated since it is unprecidented - and could be changed immediately the next day - people will freeze - many will sit and do nothing -
will not buy anything waiting for the apocalypse - more people layed off means less free cash flow for aggregate disposable income which means the corporations revenues continue to slide. more cash flows needed to do buybacks - leverage until what?
assets going up more will not prompt lenders to take the higher risk on the new mortgage value - greater and greater equity will be the norm - go from 80% LTV to 50-60%
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/legendary-investor-crispin-odey-goes-to...
Legendary investor Crispin Odey goes to cash as stocks are ‘overextended’
By Brett Arends
Published: Sept 24, 2015 11:51 a.m. ET
The U.K. hedge fund manager says ‘we are now due’ a recession
One of Europe’s most brilliant investment managers is warning of a new global financial crisis on the horizon and has moved a huge chunk of his portfolio into cash.
Crispin Odey, who founded London-based Odey Asset Management in 1991, says the turmoil that began last month has only just begun, and that equity markets could fall much further.
“Our overriding conviction is that we are nearer the beginning of this process than the end,” the hedge fund manager warns clients in his latest report. Stock market valuations worldwide “are so overextended that they will need to fall 30%-40%” before they offer a compelling bargain, he argues.
Astonishingly, Odey now holds 29% of his retail investment fund, Odey Opus, in cash — even though the fund is typically oriented toward growth. The firms manages about $11.7 billion in assets.
It’s easy to take prognostications with a pinch of salt. There’s always someone somewhere predicting doom. The British seem to specialize in it. I’ve been lunching and dining with a variety of accomplished money managers in London in the past few days, and each one has been even more terrifying than the last.
But Odey is no ordinary money manager. He is a living legend in London financial circles, and is usually bullish as well. His Opus fund is up 270% since it was launched in 2001, three times as much as its benchmark.
Odey argues that China’s devaluation augurs an era of financial crisis across emerging markets, including currency wars, tariffs and the formation of trading blocs. China’s ailing economy, he says, will be the new U.S. housing crash. Meanwhile, the world is struggling under debt burdens that have not been eased by years of so-called monetary easing.
There is a recession every decade and “we are now due ours.”
Yikes!
If Odey’s right, then I was way too early when I began buying stocks last month. (It wouldn’t be the first time.) But I don’t want to sit almost entirely in cash either. Buy often, buy early?
I view people that say stockmarkets will fall 30-40% as stockmarket bulls.
Now THAT is doom porn click-bait. Say that lots fast.
It's just more of what isn't working.
Like it will somehow have a different outcome.
Good luck getting rid of cash. I think that DC will be burning by about then.
NIRP is the absolute best way to get Donald Trump elected President. If the Fed really does implement NIRP, you will see political upheaval like you've never seen before.
The Confederate Flag represents rascism at its' worst and its' modern day use is associated with right wing neo-nazis that hate hate jews,blacks,catholics and everybody else that's not an uneducated knucklehead.
Gold needs no memo from manipulators and fractional paper pushers. Gold will glister when Federati are ashes under Uricon. Gold is immutable and eternal, the Pet Rock of Ages.
So Sprott made this great point on KWN recently: they will not/cannot hurt the bond market because they need bond buyers. They will willingly impair the stock market **if necessary** to save the bond market. This is why NIRP is only possible if the US neg rates are less NIRPy than overseas alternatives - the market here has to be more attractive to keep treasuries selling.
As dollar demand decreases, as it is doing, $ bond demand weakens creating pressure on the establishment to make them more attractive, not less.
NIRP would be rocket fuel for the stock market; it would increase bond values; but this game is about continuing dollar denominated debt sales.
Gold and silver would go through the fucking roof.
And we're supposed to believe that the Fed was "this close" to raising rates last week?
In gold we trust.
Hi, ho, silver, and away.
Hide it well and securely, young Jedi.