This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Will A Black Swan Land In Spain On Sunday? Full Catalonia "Referendum" Preview
Earlier this week, we asked why multiple armored vans were parked outside the Bank of Spain’s Barcelona branch.
The convoy would have been curious enough on its own, but the fact that the vehicles were stationed in the Catalan capital ahead of what amounts to an independence referendum piqued our interest and we asked if perhaps the Bank of Spain was preparing for any and all contingencies. According to the Bank of Spain itself, our suspicions were unfounded as “nothing extraordinary happened [on Wednesday] in the building of Banco de España in Barcelona.”
“By the way,” the central bank added, “there is no gold in this site of Banco de España in Barcelona.”
Maybe not, and perhaps nothing was amiss, but this Sunday’s plebiscite in Catalonia is worth watching closely as it could very well represent the next European black swan.
To be sure, we’ve long said that in the wake of Greece’s latest bailout negotiations, political events in Spain and Portugal have the potential to further destabilize the EMU. Regional elections in May signaled a growing disaffection among Spanish voters with the status quo and seemed to telegraph a shift towards parties whose election promises mirror those which helped Syriza sweep to power in Greece earlier this year.
In Barcelona for instance, the anti-poverty, anti-eviction activist Ada Colau (who leads Barcelona En Comú) was elected mayor in what she called a victory “for David over Goliath.”
The point here is that on the heels of the Greek fiasco and with tensions running high thanks to the worsening migrant crisis, just about the last thing Brussels needs is for the political landscape in Spain or Portugal (which the troika is fond of holding up as austerity success stories) to shift dramatically in favor of parties who sympathize with the anti-austerity cause and while the story of Catalonia’s push for independence is a separate and distinct issue, secession would only serve to muddy the waters further ahead of general elections in December, creating further uncertainty and adding yet another destabilizing element to an already fragile situation in the EU.
In short, while the spectre of Catalonia’s secession might serve to bolster Mariano Rajoy’s PP ahead of the general election, the market may well grow concerned about the effect Catalan independence would have on Spain’s debt-to-GDP ratio. That sets up the potential for anti-austerity parties to suggest that the pain inflicted upon Spain's populace (see the country's sky high unemployment rate) has ultimately been for naught. A similar dynamic is now unfolding in Portugal on the heels of the government's admission that the cost of the Novo Banco bailout must ultimately be incorporated into the country's budget deficit. Additionally, it's worth noting that predicting how Spain would ultimately deal with a Catalonia that attempts to secede is difficult and it's not hard to imagine a number of scenarios that end in social upheaval.
With that, we bring you the following preview of this weekend’s vote in Catalonia courtesy of Deutsche Bank, RBS, and The Guardian.
* * *
From Deutsche Bank
The 27 September election in Catalonia, which accounts for ~19% of Spanish GDP – matters. First, the pro-independence movement has transformed the election into a de-facto referendum on Catalonia’s independence – an attempt to bypass the Constitution. Second, the result of the regional election could have a bearing on the December national election.
The pro-independence parties The centre-right Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) joined forces with left-wing Catalan Republic Left (ERC) and other Catalan associations. They will run under a pro-independence joint list: Junts pel Si (Together for Yes). Junts pel Si pledges to declare unilaterally the independence of Catalonia from Spain in about 18 months if they win the election and if the secession negotiations with the central government fail.
The pro independence parties come from a very heterogeneous political spectrum. This is not a positive. In our view, a Catalan government supported by CDC, ERC and CUP would have only the pro-independence battle to keep it standing. Hence, the leaders of such a government will likely continue on the pro-independence path not only out of conviction on its feasibility but because of lack of alternatives.
Political impact ahead of the general election
The potential threat to the unity of Spain from Catalonia could be an advantage for the PP ahead of the national election as it is probably seen as the best party to deal with such a risk.
Furthermore, there are three other factors that could lead to an increase in the support for the PP. (1) The economy continues to improve. (2) Some of those who abstained in the May election may switch back to the PP as their abstentions have helped the left to gain control of several local governments. (3) Support for the PP could be underestimated by current polls as its voters may be less willing to reveal their preferences given the party’s recent legal controversies.
A coalition with a significant role for the radical left at national level could push for a reversal of some structural reforms (such as the labour reforms). A boost for the pro business parties from the Catalan election could reduce such a risk.
From an economic and financial perspective, we think that a Catalonia’s UDI would be akin to ending up in the classic non-cooperative solution of the prisoner dilemma, i.e. a lose-lose outcome for both Catalonia and Spain:
- Catalonia would likely be cut out of the EU based on the above EC statement and capital controls cannot be excluded.
- The impact would be significant also on the Spanish economy. Without an agreement to share the stock of debt with Catalonia, Spain’s’ projected public debt for 2015 would move from just above 100% of GDP to about 125% of GDP. And this accounts only for the mechanical impact. On 21 September Mas stated that if the central government refuses to negotiate, Catatonia might not pay back its liabilities to the central government.
* * *
From RBS
Independence faces constitutional and legal challenges from the central government. The central government’s main argument is that secession is simply unconstitutional; Section 2 of the constitution states: “The Constitution is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation, the common and indivisible homeland of all Spaniards”. As such, the government has repeatedly blocked Catalan attempts to hold referenda on separation, most recently in September 2014. This led to a symbolic nonbinding vote held in November in which independence won by 80.8% (turnout was low at ~40%). As a last resort, the government in Madrid could invoke Article 155, which states that “if a [region] does not comply with the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that threatens the general interest of Spain, the Government can […] via absolute majority in the Senate, adopt the necessary measures to oblige the region to forced compliance with such obligations, or for the protection of the aforementioned general interest”. Madrid has already spoken of its ability to use this power, although overriding Catalonia’s regional autonomy would be a drastic move in our opinion, heightening the ideological element of the conflict and risk alienating non-separatist Catalans.
Catalonia is highly likely to lose EU membership if separated from Spain. As highlighted by Merkel and Cameron, it would be almost impossible for Catalonia to gain EU membership, as Article 49 of the Treaty of the European Union would require Catalonia to be recognized as a “state” by all 28 member states, including Spain. The situation is similar to 2014’s Scottish independence referendum. José Manuel Barroso, the European Commission President then, suggested it would be “extremely difficult if not impossible” for an independent Scotland to join the EU. Speaking at our Credit and ABS 2015 conference yesterday, Barroso reiterated the same point regarding Catalonia. The end result of the Scottish referendum saw 45% vote to leave the UK, while 55% voted to stay in. In our view, similar concerns are likely to weigh on Catalan voters’ mind if they’re polled directly on whether to leave Spain. Uncertainty over a Euro-exit would deter voters from opting for
What does the Catalan election mean for credit? Headline risk presents more volatility for Spanish credit. But in our view, this can create an entry point to get long Spanish credit (avoiding EM-exposed names like Santander or Telefonica). Even though so far it has underperformed Italy, consistent with our views, Spain is supported by improving fundamentals on a firming recovery in the domestic economy. While we have moved to underweight on global credit (a measure of 4/10 on our bullishness scale), we remain most positive on Eurozone credit, which is relatively isolated by more ECB easing (being the ECB more under pressure to ease from deflationary pressures, the Asia slowdown hitting core Europe).
* * *
From The Guardian
How did we get here?
Before the previous election (in 2012), the Catalan parliament adopted a resolution asserting “the right of the people of Catalonia to be able to freely and democratically determine their collective future through a referendum”.
In the elections that followed later that year, the mostly pro-referendum parties – Convergence and Union (CiU), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), Initiative for Catalonia Greens-United and Alternative Left (ICV-EUiA) and the the Popular Unity Candidature (CUP) – won the most votes and seats.
However, the CiU party of Catalonia’s president, Artur Mas, lost 12 seats, and he had to rely on the support of the ERC to secure the numbers needed to form a government.
Despite their differences, and diverging factions within, the pro-referendum parties were able to muster enough votes in 2013 to pass a declaration that affirmed Catalonia’s right to self-determination, and set forth the beginning of a process to call an independence referendum.
But Spain’s constitutional court declared the declaration void and unconstitutional.
Since then, the size of demonstrations has got bigger and bigger – and support for a referendum has intensified.
The Spanish government, though, has remained firmly opposed to an independence vote, declaring attempts to hold one illegal. Technically speaking, Madrid is on the right side of the law because in order to hold a legally binding referendum the central government would need to transfer authority to the region (just like in Scotland’s referendum) – and it says it won’t.
The standoff led the Catalan government to call a snap election, the third in five years, and to label Sunday’s vote a plebiscite on independence.
»
- 63105 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Catalonia in 1936 was one of the few times in modern history where the people had the power of course the Soviets couldn't stand the idea of a form of communism existing that put the people first above the state and central planning and so arrested all the anarchists and pretty much allowed Franco to take over in the end.
Hopefully we will see Catalonia back to being a bastian of freedom for all.
I don't hold much hope though.
Frankly, we'd be amazed if anything happened. No doubt the Scottish referendum was rigged and all elections in the west are rigged when they need to be.
You know the FIRST time Catalonia voted (a year or two ago??) it didn't change shit even though it was overwhelmingly for secession. Something about Spain mobilizing the tanks and troops made them back off and declare it "non-binding". It also didn't work in Greece. Or Scotland, as I recall, either. And that's just recent history.
Why does anyone think it would turn out differently this time? Somebody help me understand.
The first was presented to the people as a non-binding agreement. "symbolic" If the next one is presented as Binding it makes a lot of difference because the people will think they are voting for something of substance and not symbolic. If they then don't get what they think they have voted for people will be very pissed, you will hear things like "the Spanish Gov't has no jurisdiction here" then the Spanish gov't will start using force to show that it does have Jurisdiction then the people start shooting.
"Somebody help me understand."
The NWO globalists have us all by the balls, that's why.
Now is a much better time to foment civil war, as the narrative is changing to usher in the Dark Ages 2.0.
“By the way,” the central bank added, “there is no gold in this site of Banco de España in Barcelona.” ...(because we removed all the gold earlier in the week).
"These are not the droids you're looking for..."
Reminds me of Texas and the Alamo. Freedom for all. I do hope Texas follows the path of Boehner. That would be a grand scale resignation. Secession!
Did Texas side with the Confederates in the Civil war (war of Northern aggression) ? If they did they may of lost their option to leave the Union if they ever choose too. Doesn't mean they can't just means they may of lost the "legal" option to.
When the split comes nobody will be asking, they will be telling.
Central bankers will ensure that freedom does not take place, anywhere. With Central Bankers, opting out is not an option.
Yeah, Kennedy tried that with executive order 11100, they didn't let him opt out either. But Title 12 USC Sub-Section 411 is interesting regarding demand for lawful money, or FRN's acting as Treasury notes if demand is made. Not trying to get gold for a FRN.
Catalonia threatens our freedoms.
Won't someone think of the childrens?
Send unto them Nulandmanbearpig!
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/she-lies-victoria-nulands-ukraine-...
IDK But the dog barks at midnight..
There is no buyer of last resort for this stock market except the banks.
Small caps at their LOD.
Nasdaq still distributing.
They're holding dow up to distribute illiquid shit.
Look out below.
Rule #1- SHTF events NEVER happen with a vote...look at Greece, didn't matter what the people said
“I have never voted in my life... I have always known and understood that the idiots are in a majority so it's certain they will win.” ? Louis-Ferdinand Céline.
As they did in Scotland, a tiny Jewish minority - people who apparently don't feel the need to live in the Jeiwsh homeland, are determined to prevent another people from winning their OWN homeland
Jewish Lobby opposes Catalonia’s statehood
http://rehmat1.com/2014/11/10/jewish-lobby-opposes-catalonias-statehood/
"Catalans are often called the “Jews of Spain”. I’ve heard this from people outside of Catalanya as well as inside of Catalunya. Since being a Jew in Spain is, unlike the United States, somewhat exotic, it doesn’t seem that offensive to call anyone a Jew here, as if being a Jew had certain indelible characteristics.
But why are Catalans called the Jews of Spain? What does Jew mean to a Spaniard? I mean, what is the tacitly accepted definition of the Jew “type”?
To figure this out I first asked a Catalan friend why Catalans are called the Jews of Spain. She said it is probably because they are “thrifty”, they are “investors”, and “tight with money”. Stereotypically, of course. But as with any stereotype, that is projected. Because to a Spaniard, another Spaniard who is thrifty and tight-fisted is merely thrifty and tight-fisted, but as soon that person is Catalan, they become the typical Catalan.
So then I asked a Jewish friend. He said it was probably because they were “clannish and proud”, were “tight/crafty with money”, had “long noses”, and shared a sense of “victimhood”. Since the exception always seems to prove the rule when you look for it, I would say that this does fit certain Catalans that I know, as well as Jews. But, then again, I know people that have all these characteristics (except perhaps for the clannish characteristic) and they are not Catalan or Jewish. My friend also pointed out that many were probably conversos, or Jews who converted to escape persecution from the Spanish Inquisition. Conversos are also known as marranos, which comes from swine. I wonder if more conversos stayed in Catalunya than in other parts of Spain? Or if Catalans are called the Jews of Spain because they apparently adhere to the Jewish stereotypes of being tight-fisted and clannish?
Although many people have no clue where their ideas of Jews and Catalans come from, they bandy about the concepts of “Jew” and “Catalan” on a daily basis, and it ends up meaning what I wrote about above. A group apart, exclusive, shrewd."
http://guirilandia.blogspot.com/2007/05/catalans-and-jews.html
a little ot, but reminds me:
Columbus Was a Catalan-Speaking Jew, U.S. Scholar Says
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=13003&ArticleId=345716
Interesting.
You mentioned Marranos - the Marrano hand gesture, or claw hand, or westside gang sign is seen throughout medieval art and was sported by such notables as Colombus himself (and Luther, and Willem of Oranje, the De Medicis, Elizabeth I, Hitler etc.) as can be seen in this image:
https://atokenmanblog.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/chest.jpg
and this one:
https://atokenmanblog.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/hip.jpg
and many many more.
The link between them (as some have speculated) can be traced to the Vikings who allegedly had a deformity known as Viking hand or Viking claw which was probably Dupuytren's contracture. DC has been found in an ancient Egyptian mummy perhaps from the Hyksos lineage. Considering the link between the Viking invasion of England in 1066, the ancestry of the British throne to ancient Egypt, the Hebrew Hyksos kings of Egypt, and the assimilation of the tribe of Dan into the Pheonician empire (who colonized coastal parts of Spain,) the Catalan Jews are probably Danites.
Like I said, interesting. It would explain a lot. Thanks for that.
Nice,....... and interesting.
Thanks.
part 1 here
part 2 coming soon
https://atokenmanblog.wordpress.com/2015/03/03/136/
Few things are more humorous than an American right-winger who presents himself as an erudite, thoughtful person.
Scandinavians can be pretty funny, too.
Ask him how his Sharia enlightenment is progressing.
In our case, it's intentional.
You certainly know how to deploy ad hominem.
apart from that, though - what do you have?
Dupuytren's.
Maybe Peyronies?
Most of the right-wingers i know are PRO and not ANTIsemitic. And most of them are way more thoughtful than the liberals i know, who use emotion to make decisions rather than reason.
"the Vikings who allegedly had a deformity known as Viking hand or Viking claw"
also known as "rower's cramp"
Some posit that those who work with their hands or suffer vibrations in their hands are more succeptible. This is disputed, however. Cases in Africa (quite rare) tend to support this theory, though.
Thanks for that.
Ha Ha--you read the funniest shit in the comment section. Tell your doctor to raise your meds.
I don't do meds, but if you tell me where you live, I could probably find a library for you.
You may be erroneously assuming this asshat can read beyond 'My Pet Goat' - the colouring-in version that is.
You catch more flies with honey... but you don't need the honey if you just ignore the flies.
Maybe they're just having a bad day. Meh.
Besides, comparing someone to Bush is not something one can just take back. Them's the big guns!
Wow - that's some weak ass trolling, Rachel.
Cookie?
That was a pretty funny joke, btw.
Interesting, but I must say I'm a 50 yo spaniard and never, ever, heard that topic about catalonians as the "jews of Spain"
It's true we call them "peseteros" , “tight/crafty with money”, but, as most topics, that's 50% joke and 50% true, for just 50% ofcatalonians...
Do you know what? They have a very common saying, "la pela es la pela" ("money is money" meaning "money is THE important thing"
Anyway, All this farce od the catalonian independence is just a hoax. A kind of dramatic electoral campaign. It'll never happen and everyone here knwos that. You must be spanish to understand this style of politics.
PS: Iv found this video with english subtitle. PLease enjoy this, and notice it0s not a comedy show, it's a serious polical talk show in the catalonian public TV station. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ln0KZ3tLM2g
Now, please tell me, do you still think this is serious? If someone speaks spanish and asks me to, I could bring you lots of Monty Pithon style gags like this. Hundreds,
Sunday's 'event is not a referendum for secession. It's a local parlament/government normal election. Tjhe independence hoax is just a trendingtopic for hearding disgusted sheep in a corruption crisis, and no matter who wins, nothing really happens.
How did Catalonia get there?
When centralized corruption cannot hide it's blatant looting from the citizens any longer.
The parasites sense a great disturbance in the Farce.
“By the way,” the central bank added, “there is no gold in this site of Banco de España in Barcelona.”
Well NOT NOW!!!!
Finally...a central bank tells the truth about their gold holdings (or lack thereof).
They're gonna' need a new central bank.
Yeah don't listen to the people of a region on something that shows 80% support, that's how shooting wars start.
Predicting a Scotch outcome.
"Catalonia is highly likely to lose EU membership if separated from Spain."
Which is one excellent reason for voting for separation.
Seems to be the only way to get out.
Scottisch ref, Greek ref, French & Dutch no against EU constitution that ended in the Lisbon Treason, all for nothing. Roll the fucking guillotines in Catalonia instead of voting.
Yawn... we've seen this so many times.
None is allowed to succeed, they'll all fail.
It's... like the mob.
ONCE YOU GET IN, YOU NEVER GET OUT!!
That's a duck.
Between the Basque and Catalonia, Spain has a headache.
First Catalunya followed by Euzkadi, then "ISIS" will retake Toledo and Valencia and set up a Califate (if TelAviv gives their permission)
Seriously, the Catalans are far more stubborn than the Scots and there aren't enough old folks on the EU dole to counteract the independentistas, so the EU will have to use the straight "Diebold" solution to fend off the Catalans.
The problem is that the Catalans won't take the rigged vote laying down.
Spanish Anarchism v2.0
The words of two of the greatest tyrants of all time come to mind:
"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."
"All political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."
- View
- Votes
Relationships- Relationship actions
-
- Become Burticus's Contact
HistoryFollow this user's comments
http://www.nextlevelsalesconsulting.com/sales-insights/sales-library/ins...
Real quotations should be attributed.
My name and Time is still for sale $130,000 USD
Regarding Spain and Catalonia, things are different than what most people know.
Catalonia government pushing for separation is a bunch of corrupt son of a bitches that already face scandals and corruption since at least year ago.
Businesses in Catalonia are forcing its employees to support independence, taxi driver will talk about stuff like that only to later admit he have to.
Same taxi driver as well as most of those "pro-independence" people are NOT catalans they in fact are origin south Spain as their names often imply.
This whole independence BS was started by certain group who want to prey on weakened part of country they will govern by then.
Catalonia will not be rejected by EU though, if they succeed because EU politics take anything they can and have no honor as already proven by last Greek bailout, so they are again just lying BS. Catalonia will be part of EU and I am sure they will want to, thus only thing that will happen by their charade is that they will break hundreds of years existing country, get even worse and more corrupt government than Spain already have and still pay all the stuff to support broke countries like Greece and... Spain! Fools.
Also, most of their economy depend on rest of the Spain as already proven by that last boycott...
If you remain in the EU, then independence really matters little, as it is just a formality. The EU controls all vital things, and a new smaller state would be subject to Brussels dictatorship. I see this a No Big Deal. Though Spain itself will have to adapt to less tax revenues. On big issues, all states are locked into a super state with laws for all.
American man about America and beyond:
http://www.anna-news.info/node/43229
What is the big deal on actualy being part of the EU these days??? Someone please... being told what # of welfare recipients they have to accept? EU is a laughing stock these days not something one wants to aspire too. Czechs tallied up 60k signatures under leave EU now petition, thats in one day....
Hysteria.
If anybody in a position to do anything about it thought for a minute the Catalans were serious about separating from the Kingdom of Spain or the EU, Uncle Sugar would already be carpet-bombing Barcelona.
This is a fight between elites (Catalan and Castilian), not anything likely to result in a freer or more prosperous Catalonia. While the Catalans lack effective control over their own money supply, it won't matter who makes the laws that govern them, except to the elites privileged to profit from them.
Nothing to see here, move along.
‘I am firmly convinced that Spain is the strongest country of the world. Century after century trying to destroy herself and still no success’
Otto Von Bismarck.
help ! Does Catalonia include Majorca and Ibiza?