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Dear Janet Yellen, Here Is All You Need To Know About The US Economy: True Unemployment Is Over 12%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One of the great mysteries surrounding the US economy is the seemingly inexplicable discrepancy between the plunging unemployment rate on one hand, which at 5.1% in August was the lowest since April of 2008 - a data point which on the surface would suggest virtually no slack in the labor force -  and the crawling pace of growth of the broader economy, on the other hand, namely the deterioration in US output and labor productivity, and the constant failure of wages to actually grow despite constant predictions by economists and pundits over the past 5 years that "wage growth is just around the corner."

This relationship has had a name since 1962 when Arthur Melvin Okun first observed the empirical relationship between unemployment and losses in a country's production. It is called Okun's law.

In theory, the original statement of Okun's law said that a 2% increase in output corresponds to a 1% decline in the rate of cyclical unemployment; a .5% increase in labor force participation; a .5% increase in hours worked per employee; and a 1% increase in output per hours worked (labor productivity). Okun's law states that a one point increase in the cyclical unemployment rate is associated with two percentage points of negative growth in real GDP. The relationship varies depending on the country and time period under consideration.

As the chart below shows, the "Okun Law" relationship has been one of the empirically observed mainstays of the US economy, with the real GDP growth rate constantly superimposed on top of the inverted unemployment rate... until 2010 when something snapped.

 

To be sure, both we and others have commented on the unprecedented discrepancy between the "strong" economy dictated by the unemployment rate, and the "weaker" economy signaled by virtually every other indicator, certainly the annual growth rate of US GDP, which in Q3 rose 2.7% from a year ago.

Back in 2012 we first asked "Is Okun's Law The Latest Casualty Of Central Planning" (incidentally, the answer is yes). Then several months later it was the turn of WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath to follow up on our observations with his own question: "How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment?"

Something about the U.S. economy isn't adding up. At 8.3%, the unemployment rate has fallen 0.7 percentage point from a year earlier and is down 1.7 percentage points from a peak of 10% in October 2009. Many other measures of the job market are improving. Companies have expanded payrolls by more than 200,000 a month for the past three months, according to Labor Department data. And the number of people filing claims for government unemployment benefits has fallen. Yet the economy is barely growing. Many economists in the past few weeks have again reduced their estimates of growth. The economy by many estimates is on track to grow at an annual rate of less than 2% in the first three months of 2012. The economy expanded just 1.7% last year. And since the final months of 2009, when unemployment peaked, the economy has expanded at a pretty paltry 2.5% annual rate."

Fast forward to September 2015 when the same questions keep popping back: in fact, since 2013 the economic slowdown has only grown more acute manifesting itself in last week's failure by the Fed to hike rates: a direct confirmation that nothing with the US economy is as strong as the 5.1% unemployment rate suggests.

In the meantime, our conclusion from our June 2013 take on "Broken Okun" is still applicable:

Something is way off: either the unemployment data is very much wrong and the real unemployment rate is far higher especially when normalized for the collapsing labor participation rate and the surge in part-time and temp workers, or the GDP calculation is incorrect and the economy is growing at a 4%+ rate. (It isn't). The scarier implication is that in addition to all other seasonally adjusted economic data points which have become painfully unreliable, daily Treasury tax receipts must also now be added to the docket of meaningless and corrupt data points. The question of just how the Treasury could explain a massive (and deficit boosting) cash discrepancy could only be answered if somehow the Fed is found to be parking cash directly into the Treasury's secret basement.

 

But that would be very illegal...

 

Obviously, the US economy is not growing at a 4% pace, although following next month's wholesale revision of the GDP calculation which will include the benefit of intangibles, we wouldn't be surprised if the BEA and BLS push the country's entire economic reporting apparatus fully and entirely into wonderland, and absolutely every economic number is no longer accurate, relevant or unmanipulated.

Two years later, the BEA did indeed push the country's economic reporting aparatus into wonderland when it decided to "adjust away" winter weakness by double seasonally adjusting the GDP, thus making it the latest utterly meaningless data indicator.

Still, the BEA will have to do much better to "unbreak" Okun again.

In the meantime, we decided to conduct an exercise in which we assumed that Okun is in-fact not broken, and that as a result of political pressure US employment data has been massaged. We then superimposed the annual growth rate of US unemployment (indicative of 4%+ growth in the past 5 years) to be in line with the actual change in real GDP growth, roughly half that number.

This is how such a collapse in the divergence between the unemployment growth rate and GDP would look like.

 

What does the above "fitted" chart mean for US unemployment, especially in the epic decoupling period that started some time in 2009, just as the labor force participation rate imploded? It means the following: instead of a 5.1% unemployment rate in August, the true unemployment rate in the "land of the free" has been rising ever since the financial crisis, and has been above 12% for the past three years.

So, dear Janet Yellen, there you go. If you are still confused why there is still so much slack and so little wage growth in the economy despite the 5.1% "reported" unemployment number, now you know the answer.

And since the Fed is supposedly contemplating tightening monetary conditions, if indeed the true, unmassaged for political reason unemployment rate is just above 12%, you may want to reconsider that rate hike.

Source: Real GDP Growth and Unemployment rate growth

 

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Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:34 | 6599331 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

.
.
.
The % unemployed is secondary to the basic fact that the QUALITY of employment, the quality of the jobs, has visibly decreased. This country is not producing value-added quality.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:39 | 6599343 Dazman
Dazman's picture

It's even INvisibly decreased. If you happen to be paying attention and care. The FEDerati do not. Fake stats FTW! Hello China 2.0

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:18 | 6599443 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Again, if you been paying attention say the last 5 years you pretty much can get the employment picture

Job Situation: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

-

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:33 | 6599488 Money Counterfeiter
Money Counterfeiter's picture

There will NEVER be economic growth until there is savings and investment.  That means raising the interst rate and junking the BS banker printing.  The Fed needs to pack up it's shit and move.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:10 | 6599617 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

I'm not so sure about that 12% unemployment figure...

 

 

Seems kinda low to me...

 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 18:22 | 6600180 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

Mister Yellens replies to the writer:

For most FOMC participants, including myself, [swallow]

um, [gurgle]

we currently anticipate that achieving this conditions [sic]

will likely entail an increase in the federal funds rate [swallow]

later this year [sniff, snort, swallow]

followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter. [swallow]

But if the economy surprises us [snort, swallow]

our judgments about appropriate. [cough, gurgle]

Excuse me.

Monetary policy will of course change. [gag]

So let me stop there. [gag]

Thank you. [swallows]

 

[applause, ovation]

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 20:05 | 6600432 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

REAL unemployment is FAR higher than 12%

 

Even when using the 1980 methodology, it's over 24% - see shadowstats.com

nevermind all those underemployed, working at low paying jobs and part-timers 

 

ALL gov stats including inflation and GDP are bogus - they're pure propaganda at this point, manipulated and tweaked far from the reality 

Inflation is around 10% in real life terms yet the Fed is worried about 'deflation'?!?!?!  It's all BS

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 19:31 | 6600347 jcdenton
jcdenton's picture

There will NEVER be economic growth until there is savings and investment.

 

And that can't even begin to happen until we first PURGE these derivatives ..

https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp (begin with the 11 minute teaser.)

 

That means raising the interst rate

 

Which can only happen via the market. Not via central banking policy ..

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:38 | 6599346 snodgrass
snodgrass's picture

The unemployment rate has been 23 percent for sometime according to John Williams. David Stockman puts it at 40 percent.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:45 | 6599366 falak pema
falak pema's picture

A true communist would bloat that to 99%.

In a commie state nobody works except the goulagists and they cost near zero.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:48 | 6599378 toady
toady's picture

Yeah, that 12% just un-adjusts some minor bullshit. The number to watch is the participation rate. Who wants to participate in a drive-thru economy?

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:58 | 6599402 Amish FinEng
Amish FinEng's picture

You guys are horrible. A 12% unemployment rate implies a 88% employment rate. That's awesome. 88 out of 100 people are working many with excellent government jobs at prestigious internet addresses like financeblog.com

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:44 | 6599521 NoPension
NoPension's picture

You're Amish. What's with an Internet account?

Subtract from the workforce those too young or old, or disabled.

Now you dealing with about 65-70% . Assuming 10% ( it's more) UE, your at 55-60% of the population are working.
For shits and giggles, subtract 10% of that, Govrnment workers. A COST.
45-50%
And this doesn't include those whose stooped looking.

It's not good. 88 out 100? More like 40 out of 100.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:53 | 6599388 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Higher unemployment may slightly increase GDP by increasing welfare payouts -- free EBT, Free cell phones, Free Section 8 housing, free food, free vaccinations, and so on. Someone has to pay out for all that "free stuff." Maybe that's what Piglosi meant when she said that moar joblessness will stimulate GDP. It's a very democrat kind of thinking; a Bigger FSA is actually "good" for the GDP.

 

It's a Paradoxial Piglosi Paradigm!

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:04 | 6599410 Amish FinEng
Amish FinEng's picture

What did that article say? The average unmarried baby momma and homeboy make close to $80,000/yr working the system. That's enough to build a brand new porch to sit out on.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:58 | 6599574 toady
toady's picture

Damn porch monkeys

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:57 | 6599565 grgy
grgy's picture

"Truth is treason in an empire of lies."

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:09 | 6599426 JLO
JLO's picture

Why is it when you look at the US Debt Clock. Median income is the smallest number you see.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:37 | 6599341 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Dude the unemployment rate is a government statistic. The government is there to lie to you until they finally kill you. Haven't you even once listened to the President speak.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:07 | 6599417 Amish FinEng
Amish FinEng's picture

And it's not a quick death. They want to make sure that you don't have one thin dime to pass on to your kids.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:42 | 6599348 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

According to: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

its closer to 23% with an inflation rate around 7.5%

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:42 | 6599362 falak pema
falak pema's picture

So true US statistics beat the "official" french statistics.

In this race to bottom I wonder where the "true" french statistics on unemployment really stand ?

A good rule is to mutliply by 2 ! It seems to apply to the US if true is at 12%.

Yikes ! France would be north of 22 %

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:45 | 6599367 didthatreallyhappen
didthatreallyhappen's picture

well, duh

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:45 | 6599368 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

When you have this many people (fuck the rate , the rate is meaningless the way its calculated), just look at raw people not working,.... when you have this many people not working one of two things has happened.

1) You have created a utopia where robots run the world and people sit and consume for free.

2) Someone is being robbed, defrauded, or getting heavily into debts that are impossible to ever pay.

 

I would say most of the working population is getting robbed, getting into debt to maintain their living standard while about 100,000,000 people sit on their ass in their living room waiting for Obama Incomes.

 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:20 | 6599454 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

You forget #3

100 million or so people want to work, but can't get a job, and A GOOD PORTION of these people (but not everybody) gets small checks that don't pay for shit.  Sure we've seen how some people game the system, but the vast majority aren't, and are getting checks that don't pay for shit.

What it really is, it both #2 and #3.  The people working are getting robbed, defrauded, and going into debt, while the rest can't get credit, a job, and some have to live on gov't assistance.  The problem we have is, the system is set up to push more people from #2 into #3.  That is our system.

What people don't realize is that by not accounting for actual inflation, not only is everyone on social security getting screwed with less money every year, but also all the people on various forms of welfare.  Since this has been going on for decades, the average non-gamer of the welfare system on assistance is getting less then half of what they would of received a decade or two ago. 

Both sides are getting fucked, and while there are always freeloaders, it's absolutely moronic to think the people who aren't working don't want the intrinsic joy that comes with being employed, doing something meaningful, and getting money for it. 

The same people who are defrauding #2 have set up the system so that those in #3 are screwed and their only recourse is gov't assistance.

The un-and underemployment isn't happening because people don't want to work and want to live off the rotten scraps of gov't assistance, it's because the jobs aren't there because of the policies we have in place.

#2 is getting robbed, but #3 is getting robbed of any possibility to experience a normal life.  I don't think it's wise to think of these people as just freeloaders, especially not as a whole. SOME are, MOST aren't.  Most want to climb even into #2, but don't have a shot in hell of ever doing that because of how the system is set up.

The elite have been dividing and conquering for a long time, they know how to turn middle class or so people against the lower class, when in reality it's these elites which are destroy both those classes.

If we ended all unemployment, and all public assistance, the Wall Street and world elite would just steal the savings from that.  Poof it would be gone.  Another bailout.  Another war.  More outsourcing.  Cap and trade... whatever.  It would be poof gone. 

We are broke BY DESIGN.  Don't leave a penny in the pot... steal it all.  That's what they are doing.  If anyone thinks putting more in the pot will change anything, they are mistakenly being foolish, it would be stolen.  So instead of focusing on the poor who aren't driving this situation whatsoever, go to the source which is stealing it all.

 

 

 

 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:47 | 6599372 Haole
Haole's picture

12%??

Ok, there's one Tyler that needs re-education.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 13:59 | 6599404 joego1
joego1's picture

Does Okuns law take into account automation or outsourcing of jobs?

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:11 | 6599430 spiral galaxy
spiral galaxy's picture

How about accounting for the 20 million or so immigrants over the last 15+ years?    And one wonders why Boehner quits and weeps!  Boo Hoo!

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:02 | 6599408 pitz
pitz's picture

Yellen has been talking tough, but in reality, she's actually been getting things right with keeping policy rates at 0%.  The only question now is will they need to push them negative or not?

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:10 | 6599421 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

No need to speculate, just use the govt's own figures in the proper way:

 

TUESDAY, JUNE 16, 2015

What's the Real Unemployment Rate in the U.S.?

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2015/06/whats-real-unemployment-rat...

Excerpt:

Based on income, I set the fully employed rate at 60%, and the marginally employed/unemployed rate at 40%. If we accept the BLS's 121 million full-time jobs (which once again, doesn't make sense given even minimum wage full-time jobs earn $14,500, and 50 million people report earnings of less than $15,000), we still get a marginally employed/unemployed rate of 25%: work force of 160 million, 121 million fully employed.

These numbers align much better with the real economy than the official unemployment rate of 5.6%. It's nonsense to count everyone earning a few hundred or few thousand dollars annually as being employed in the same category as full-time workers or those earning $15,000 or more annually. 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:51 | 6599546 NoPension
NoPension's picture

$15,000 !!! Hahaha!!!!

I'm 52. Going to college. That's my plan. I never went. I'll get a loan ( I can fog a mirror) live on campus. I'll ace every class, and it will still be a vacation compared to this shit.
I'm thinking lawyer.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:05 | 6599596 The Indelicate ...
The Indelicate Genius's picture

"Back to School" is a great idea. keep going and punting the loan repayment.

then fuck off to Belize when the zombies come. A decent, sturdy boat is a good investment - worth more than its weight in Au, in my book, although that's heresy here.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:41 | 6599732 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"Professional studentry" using government guaranteed loans to replace unavailable jobs is why the total student debt is now over $1 trillion and school costs have skyrocketed to what the market can bear. Eliminate govt guaranteed student loans and college costs would get back to what they once were, something that could be paid for with a part time job. That would become "what the market can bear" and prices would drop to that or the institution would go out of business.

But don't expect that kind of reality check. The answer to high college costs is for taxpayers to pay off everyone's bloated student loans, right?

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:10 | 6599428 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Thank you Tyler for pointing out these discrepancies in the data that is trumpeted out to the masses every week. It goes to exposing what a farcical, fraudulent, film flam that goes on every time someone tells us that the economy is doing grrrrrrreat.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:16 | 6599440 Faeriedust
Faeriedust's picture

Not likely to be true in its entirely. Based on the purely unscientific method of observed "help wanted" signs in Real Life, there has been a noticeable downturn in unemployment during the last six months.  Hell, my state even just gave state employees their first raise in two years.  The sudden appearance of signs in grocery store and fast-food windows suggests that unemployment is indeed under six percent.

That leaves two possibilities: 1) that the growth in GDP is significantly overestimated -- very likely, given past performance and noticeable manipulation of the data, and 2) that BOTH unemployment and GDP growth are manipulated, but neither as much.  So perhaps unemployment is 7% and growth is 2%, instead of unemployment at 5.1% and growth at 3.9%.  This would be the easiest to achieve, since it wouldn't require quite such flagrant adjustment of data.

 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:19 | 6599448 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  What about under-employment? I'll gladly pay you Tuesday, when I get my checks from Wally World, Best Try, and Mc Shittles.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:05 | 6599599 The Indelicate ...
The Indelicate Genius's picture

that was an old line when there was supposed to be Clinton created jobs:

"I believe he created a million jobs - I have three of them"

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:23 | 6599662 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

lol. Slick Willy created some jobs alright.  The cigar industry and divorce litigation trade boomed during his tenure in the oval shithouse.

 Now we have to deal with his batshit crazy, carbuncle infested, stroked out, scorned witch of a wife, because of his adulterous shenanigans.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:24 | 6599462 island
island's picture

Please - does anyone really think ANYONE in government or quasi-government gives a hoot about anyone but themselves?  Of course they twist and distort the numbers to support their own interests.

Government is just as out-of-control and self-serving as the monopolistic big corporations - from banks to manufacturing.

Accountability = moving towards zero.

In their minds, competitiveness and consumer/public choice has to be stamped out, as competitiveness and choice undermines what is good for the financial and political elite.  Of course, this lack of true competition and choice hurts society. but so it will be --- until there is a revolution.

http://modernsurvivalblog.com/systemic-risk/the-20-mega-corporations-who...

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 20:58 | 6600560 messymerry
messymerry's picture

Thanks, nice post...

;-D   

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:38 | 6599481 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Australia, a country with 2/3rd's the population of Kalifornia has a higher unemployment rate.

 Lies, damned lies, and statistics> http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-rate

 http://www.backyardchickens.com/a/small-chicken-coop-designs-pictures-of...

 http://modernfarmer.com/2014/07/raising-backyard-chickens-dummies/

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:33 | 6599493 The Duke of New...
The Duke of New York A No.1's picture

Wrong .... Old Yeller says everything is just peachy and rates are going up this year!, cough, cough.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:47 | 6599533 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

Nice article but the comments are even better ... made me think?

WTF do we need economists for when they so obviously get it wrong all the time and ZH'ers seem to get it spot on every time? A thought for every central banker and the answer is because they lie!

South Africa, unofficially they reckon it is near 50% unemployment and quite a few others are in a similar position. To get it down lower you got to CTRL-P and create health,education and all those other service jobs to take up the slack, India and China both need to do this to take up the unemployment they will get going forward/

Iin many western economies when they say 5% chances are it will be nearer 15% and in places like Greece in excess of 25%, Spain too because there is little to no money to fund the services.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:47 | 6599535 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Where are all the workers? 94 million people neither employed nor looking for work. Work force participation rate 62.6% or lowest in four decades. http://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2015/07/16/unemployment-i...

Could it be that the government has been fudging the unemployment rate to cover for how much damage that obamacare has done to the economy? Remember small businesses now are keeping their work force under 50 so as not to have to pay for their employees healthcare. Its small businesses that drive the economy so they can't continue to hire if their already near that 50 employee limit. Also keeping employee work hours below 29 if thats still the point where employees would have to pay for their employee healthcare costs. 

Where I work there are 16 employees in the plant. We used to have 26 workers but the recession took its tole and only now is the company looking to hire three new workers, mainly to cut back on the overtime they have been paying out. But finding qualified workers is another problem. 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:47 | 6599538 Ex Cathedra
Ex Cathedra's picture

More worthless drivel from the brain-dead crowd.  Tyler has been predicting doom and gloom for years, but it never comes to pass. 

Grow up and join the real world.  Admit you are wrong, and that you don't know about which you talk.

On the other hand, Tyler has predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions...

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:56 | 6599563 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   lol. How's that penile catheter .Gov has shoved in your cranium treating you?

 Tyler hasn't predicted anything. Tyler(s) presents facts and allows the reader to make his/her own decisions.

 I don't recall you being invited to the Z/H party, so you're free to close your browser window and look at your Calpers pensionzirp statement "at will".

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 21:03 | 6600569 messymerry
messymerry's picture

Water off a duck's back Yen.  These govt lackeys are paid six figures to try to keep us down.  Let them blather all they like.  History teaches us that no govt has been able to keep the people down for long. 

The 3% will rise.

;-D   

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:52 | 6599551 The Indelicate ...
The Indelicate Genius's picture

true unemployment for US citizens has to be over 12% - H1B and other foreign born, on the books workers has to be in the millions.

As I've noted - Indian and Chinese immigrants are in such numbers in a few Boston suburbs they are together the majority of people on the train some morning.

As I've also noted - I can not say a bad thing against them, and don't blame them for escaping those shit holes...its simply that I don't believe for a moment that big companies can not find Americans willing to take those jobs, especially in Greater Boston.

People graduating from community colleges and small tech schools with software/cs degrees can't find work - the idea they can't do what these Indian dudes do for companies like State Street is simply untrue.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:52 | 6599554 frank H
frank H's picture

empricism can support an economic theory but it can NEVER prove or disprove an economic theory. Okum's law is a perfect example of getting economics wrong. You go from theory to empiricism and not the other way around.

 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:53 | 6599556 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

All ANYONE has to do is walk out to their front yard at 5AM with their cup of coffee and pay attention to ALL the people NOT leaving for work in the morning.

Watch how many of your neighbors actually leave for the day.

Sure there is some stay at home mom selling shit on ebay. Yes there are "stay at home dads" in this world.

But pay attention to how many of your neighbors within eyesight of your front door actually leave the home to add to the macro economy.

You will see the real labor participation rate as you discover some 55 year old engineer who has been unemployed for ten years wander out to get the paper.  You will see 28 year old daughters moving back home with parents because they can't make it in the big city. You will see who is collecting disability and who simply isn't being counted by the BLS anymore. You will see reality.

Yellow note pad. Pencil. Coffee. Front porch.

Spend 4 hours watching the kids go off to school and how many people are trapped in their homes in quiet desperation of under and unemployment.

Never ind that "a job" today does not pay the bills either, nor lead to long term economic stability.

 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:04 | 6599591 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Great comment!  I live on a semi private road, and my neighbors house is "kitty corner" to mine. He's the last house on the really long driveway.

 Anyhow, all his kids went away to indocrination training at the various Kali institutions, and after failing to support themselves, subsequently moved back into their childhood abode over the last 18-24 months.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 19:41 | 6600372 Kprime
Kprime's picture

Yellen is working overtime to rebuild the extended family mexican style.  All 40 close family under one roof.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 19:52 | 6600400 JMT
JMT's picture

Only stay at home moms.. The only men you see are obviously retired.  

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 14:57 | 6599570 AlfredNeumann
AlfredNeumann's picture

Horseshit , True unemployment is more like 25 percent or higher

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:11 | 6599621 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Sounds about right.

 BTW, WTF with the Catalonian elections?

 Catalonia vote: Nationalist parties 'on course to win' - BBC News

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:01 | 6599580 The Indelicate ...
The Indelicate Genius's picture

off topic but - supermoon eclipse tonight

http://www.boston.com/news/weather/weather_wisdom/2015/09/everything_you...

I'll be asking the gods to relieve us of Pastor John Hagee before Samhain.

https://twitter.com/PastorJohnHagee?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

It's not the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, but one wishes someone would explain to Hagee that lots and lots of holidays based on lunar calendars from the Hebrew to the old Celtic will fall on days of full moons... full moons happen... "blood moon" sounds scary but a fully eclipsed moon appears red all the time

Why a totally eclipsed moon looks red

http://earthsky.org/space/why-does-the-moon-look-red-during-a-total-luna...

http://earthsky.org/space/what-is-a-blood-moon-lunar-eclipses-2014-2015

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/608042/Blood-Moon-doom-prophets-ec...

Guy sold some books to the Scoffielders, though, I'll give him that.

http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/hoax/scofield.htm

Anyway, Hagee's hate and superstition filled brain would be amusing if so many southern zio-protestants didn't take him so seriously

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:39 | 6599725 Amish FinEng
Amish FinEng's picture

I started reading but then was like"
"wait a minute, I thought ZH was published in English".

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:03 | 6599585 sonni
sonni's picture

Americans in working age out of work are 93 million according to ZH.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:26 | 6599684 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's actually over 94 million, but I'm going "tit~ for~ tat".

 Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:03 | 6599586 sonni
sonni's picture

Americans in working age out of work are 93 million according to ZH.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:07 | 6599606 LouisIX
LouisIX's picture

May you live in interesting times.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:30 | 6599694 CHoward
CHoward's picture

This entire system is going to implode under it's own weight.  No country can last forever with what this country is doing - or not doing.  It's just not working.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:34 | 6599709 rejected
rejected's picture

12% ???

Your being kind Tylers....

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 15:49 | 6599768 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Very interesting, the reverse fit says 12%.  But does Okun have anything to say about underemployment?  Even the fitted number doesn't seem to reflect the participation rate.   Two reasons for that, first the economy is even weaker than reported, and second that even payroll is now distorted so the 1% gets too much and the 99% are suffering more than any simple aggregate chart suggests.

Oh btw I'm sure Yellen and the Fedsters are well aware of the reverse fit numbers.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 16:13 | 6599838 PoasterToaster
PoasterToaster's picture

94 million people have found some way to escape the slave labor force.  They are soon to be joined by those currently counted as unemployed.

Maybe it's good.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 16:30 | 6599889 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

The 94 million will soon be joined by all the families of the alleged 11 million largely Hispanic border invaders who will be granted anmesty by Obama.

When the true number of 11 mllion to 30 million illegals seek work/refugee permits, they too wil be able to partake of the benefits of uncle sugar.

The American people are living in the captured reallity of a kabuki theater.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 17:03 | 6599985 yogibear
yogibear's picture

See many people now unemployed or working part-time, yet the unemployemt rates is low. It's pure BS. 

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 19:58 | 6600407 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture
Dear Janet Yellen, Here Is All You Need To Know About The US Economy: True Unemployment Is Over 12%

 

She knows this! She also knew that virtually all of what she had to say in her "speech" (and I use that term very loosely) last week, where she basically had a nervous breakdown, is total bullshit!!  She now realizes, or had an epiphany during her "speech" - thereby causing her breakdown, that she is going to be known in future history books as the Fed Chairman that was in power when the wheels were ripped off of the USA's economy.

Wed, 09/30/2015 - 10:03 | 6610651 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

This is exactly correct. I think she had that epiphany during her speech and finally couldn't believe she was reading this speech Goldman wrote for her. She is beginning to realize that things are going to come apart at the seams in short order, and they have laid the groundwork for it. It was a massive gamble that is going to implode in epic fashion. The world's central banks have shot their load in a final salvo that will fizzle as the world's financial markets implode on themselves.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 20:32 | 6600496 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

Dear ZH,

There are no economic laws.

Sun, 09/27/2015 - 21:22 | 6600623 moneybots
moneybots's picture

But what is true GDP growth?

What is GDP after debt is subtracted?  The FED is at ZIRP.  If there was true GDP growth, the FED would not be at ZIRP.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:33 | 6601460 kappal_toba_dhu...
kappal_toba_dhurr_ne_thook's picture

Wait till China tanks.  Unemployment will be nearing 30%.

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