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Glencore Default Risk Surges Above 50%
Glencore is in total free-fall across all markets today. Most worrying for systemic risk concerns is the rush into credit protection that has occurred, as counterparties attempt to hedge their exposures. Forthe first time since 2009, Glencore CDS are being quoted with upfront pricing (something that happens as firms become seriously distressed). Based on the latest data, it costs 875bps per year (or 14% upfront) to buy protection against a Glencore default (which implies - given standard recoveries - a 54% chance of default).
Do not panic!!

These are the highest levels of risk since the post-Lehman systemic crisis...
As Bloomberg reports,
Derivatives traders started demanding upfront payments to protect against a default by the company, the first time that’s happened since 2009, according to data provider CMA
The cost of five-year credit-default swaps jumped so high that they effectively were pricing in 54% odds that the company defaults, CMA data show
“Glencore management need to make an official announcement to calm nerves,” said Darren Reece, a money manager at GAM Holdings AG in London, which oversees $127b
Charts: Bloomberg
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Another graveyard the fed keeps whistling past as they escort the U.S to the mother of all graveyards.
Yep, but I get the feeling that they are just the first on the list of moon sized craters in the marketplace that are getting ready to form.......
Glencore, RIP
I am just guessing here, but this looks like it is REALLY going to hurt a lot.
CAN NOT read an article about Glencore without my brain going to 'Glengarry Glen Ross'. Even some of the quotes from that movie seem entirely apropos in this situation:
"First prize is a Cadillac El Dorado. Anyone wanna see second prize? Second prize is a set of steak knives. Third prize is you're fired. Get the picture?"
I think Glencore is coming in third right about now.
Good call ND, and once again reality imitates the movies......
Looks like another day of excitement in the "market".
Wheeeeeee!
Rut row.
Looks more like the odds of another bailout and QE infinity
Theyll try but it won't work, which means they'll try something worse with President Zippy and Congress doing their bit to push things along......
Goldman Sachs, WINNING!
Not quite, they are down 2.6% on the Dow right now......
S&P under 1900....Shouldn't the stock market be breaking right about now?
It takes a while to die sometimes.
Somebody get a oxygen bottle quick for yellen! Wheel her over to the chopper
Nah, a little minature Darth Vader suit, with a helmet the shape of her hair. I can hear the ventillator breathing now...
HAHAHAHAH!!! Coffee just sprayed out of my nostrils u assblast, fucked up my keyboard.
Darth is already on the fed board, he goes by the name of Stanley Fisher!
Short Term Target Price almost reached, 1890 based on Negative Reversal.
http://tripstrading.com/2015/09/26/sp500-negative-reversal-1h-and-4h/
Finish wave 5.
http://tripstrading.com/2015/09/19/sp500-weekly-chart-2-or-5/
This will blow Lehman out of the Water. And starting to look like it might actually happen !!!!
When they make that announcement that everything is okay, we know for sure it is done. That is how this goes, silly wabbit.
Did you just call me a filthy wahhabbit?! Oh...Sorry. Misread. Sorry.
Glencore and DB - nice knowing ya.
questions.
1. Are they basically Enron, ie, insurers of insurers?
2. Will they get bailed out?
3. What the heck is a statement supposed to do?
Buying Xstrata at the top of the market.
Sounded like a good idea at the time......
Remember Tony Blair championed that deal; and he got his cut off the top !
Politicians don't open their "vital connection" lists for nothing.