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Glencore Implodes: Stock Plunges Most Ever, CDS Blow Out To Record Up On Equity Wipeout Fears

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update: And there it is: GLENCORE DEBT INSURANCE COSTS SURGE TO RECORD HIGH; 5-YR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS RISE 207BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY'S CLOSE TO 757 BASIS POINTS

* * *

Just last Thursday we asked whether Goldman was "preparing to sacrifice the next Lehman", by which of course we meant the world's largest commodity trading counterparty, Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore which just two weeks ago unveiled an unprecedented "doomsday" capital raising and deleveraging plan which, in retrospect, was not enough.

The punchline of Goldman's report was that if commodity prices drop 5%, or even stay where they are, then Glencore's investment grade rating - the most critical foundation of its entire trading operation where a downgrade to junk would launch a collateral and margin-call waterfall cascade a la AIG - would be lost. From Goldman:

Glencore’s trading business relies heavily on short-term credit to finance commodity deals and its financing costs would increase if it were to lose its Investment Grade credit rating. In addition, it could even lose some counterparties due to increased counterparty risk.

As we added on Thursday, "what a junking of Glencore would do, is start a collateral demand waterfall cascade that the cash-strapped company simply would not be able to sustain." So having laid out the strawman, Goldman next, very conveniently, explains just what would take for the Investment Grade trap to slam shut: "it would only take a c.5% fall in spot commodities prices for concerns about its credit rating to resurface."

Of course, Glencore's leverage to commodity prices was first explained in our March 2014 post, in which we said buying Glencore CDS is the best and easiest way to bet on a Chinese credit and commodity crunch.

Fast forward to Monday morning when those who bought into Glencore's equity offering at 125p less than two weeks ago on September 16, are already down a whopping 43% (we won't even bother calculating the loss since the company's 2011 IPO), following the biggest daily drop in Glencore history, with the stock mauled some 27% at last check...

... on the heels of a note from Investec which said nothing Zero Hedge readers did not already know, but which is spooking everyone else into realizing that the commodity trading Titanic may well be sinking.

In the note Investec notes that "using a PE-based approach to evaluate equity value going forward, in proportion to debt, we note that the heavily indebted companies (GLEN, AAL) could see almost all equity value eliminated under spot conditions, leaving nothing for shareholders.... GLEN recent restructuring may prove just the start for the majors if spot prices prevail - this supports our concern that we are still a distance from the "value point" in the sector.

In other words, even if commodity prices remain unchanged, GLEN equity could be doughnut. If commodity prices continue dropping, then - well - just read out prediction from last year.

It also means that bondholders are next in line to hold the equity after a debt-for-equity, which has also pushed Glencore's bonds to record lows, with the GLEN €1.25b notes due March 2021 dropping three cents to 78 cents on euro, while the €750m bonds due March 2025 decline four cents to 67 cents. Both are at record lows.

If and when the bondholders realize a bankruptcy would leave them with negative enterprise value when netting out all the margin calls, we wouldn't be surprised to see bonds trading below 50 in the coming months if not weeks.

Meanwhile, those who listened to our reco to buy Glencore CDS at 170 bps in March 2014 can take the rest of the year off. As of this moment, GLEN Credit Default Swap were pushing on 600 bps, 4 times wider, and on pace to take out the 2011 liquidity crunch highs. After that, it's smooth sailing to all time wides and the start of a self-fulfilling prophecy which leads to the Companys's IG downgrade and the collapse of trillions in derivative notionals as what may be the trading desk of the biggest commodity counterparty quietly goes out of business.

 

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Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:25 | 6601167 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

bullish

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:29 | 6601174 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I prefer playing FanDuel to the market. FanDuel hasn't been infested with HFT.......yet. /s

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:31 | 6601180 Four chan
Four chan's picture

like a lead zeppelin. 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:38 | 6601194 VinceFostersGhost
Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:37 | 6601305 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Maybe it's just ironic that their website is a giant hole..

http://www.glencore.com/who-we-are/

 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:14 | 6601399 Captain Debtcrash
Captain Debtcrash's picture

Glencore is one of the many candidates for a critical mass default cirdling the drain. 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:23 | 6601426 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Bounced off nicely off 66.67p for now. That's a bit crazy.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:28 | 6601437 Gmpx
Gmpx's picture

I remember this guy from Gulf of Mexico - now Glencore

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Hayward

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:56 | 6601532 tmosley
tmosley's picture

One wonders if they even have any gold or silver. I would suspect that any stockpiles they had are long gone, having been made into Chinese bars and shipped east.

Oh well, time to enjoy a nice fire-sale anyways. I have some dry powder that I think I'll hold on to--let's see how far the panic takes the price.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:57 | 6601536 highandwired
highandwired's picture

Just remember, the lower the $price, the less supply there will be

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:06 | 6601563 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

The big question remains -- is GLN too big to fail and thus bailoutable?

I'm sure this is being discussed. Bond market implosion is simply not affordable for most every government on the planet.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:03 | 6601805 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Not too big to fail, unless you're Swiss, who just announced this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/us-precious-manipulation-swiss...

Glencore is the largest company in Switzerland.  Payback is a bitch.  Take 'em down boys.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 16:05 | 6603346 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

No problem for Switzerland at all. What happens to BHP, Trafigura, Mercuria etc., not zo forget the squid, they are sharpening their knives.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:00 | 6601802 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Not really a problem, the press broken or what??

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:28 | 6601441 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

181K employees.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:09 | 6601196 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

I just got a quote it's going to cost $50 a kilo to have the last of my silver towed away. I guess it's better than keeping it and getting a fine for possession of a toxic anti-bank substance.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:26 | 6601434 FireBrander
FireBrander's picture

"I guess it's better than keeping it and getting a fine for possession of a toxic anti-bank substance."

I sense sarc; but I think you're closer to the truth than you're willing to realize and accept.

When the choice is between "restoring faith in the currency" and "Silver/Gold Hoarders", guess who loses...research 1933, USA and Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau, Jr for the answer.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:35 | 6601465 FireBrander
FireBrander's picture

Here's a conspiracy theory for ya:

1. Trash the currency (Check)

2. Force the "smart" people into gold and silver (check)

3. Brand the "smart" people "hoarding" gold/silver as threats to financial/social stability. (pending)

4. Outlaw the ownership of Gold/Silver in "excess".(pending)

5. Coordinate with central banks across the globe to "re-price" the global "price" of gold far below the "smart" people's average cost in order to "restore faith in paper currency"...stealing their "wealth" and bankrupting them.(pending)

6. Mission Accomplished (pending)

Ya know...that's not really a conspiracy theory...that's US HISTORY!...They did it once...really think they won't do it again when the choice of picking "winners" is between YOU and the BANKS?

 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:01 | 6601550 Lorca's Novena
Lorca's Novena's picture

Exposing the truth gets you a stay at the Fun Camp.... I'll send ya a cake!

 

At least back in the day you were "allowed" to keep family heirlooms / jewelery, these days I dont think so.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:28 | 6601918 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

That day is long over. This time it won't matter what they "allow".

They can peruse the list of people they KNOW have some gold, and give it a shot. But that is a fraction of "held gold", and they won't even be able to collect a fraction of that.

Unfortunately they do NOT have the names of the majority of people who own gold, nor do they know how much they have. What I know is that they do not have the manpower to DO much about it.

Should they try anyway, it would quickly become a bloodbath, which would keep them too busy to do any gold-searching. They'd be all wrapped up trying to retain their dwindling power to worry about grandma's charm bracelet.

They can't turn you off with a push of the button unless your stuff is 'in the system'. They'd have to physically find and take it...door to door. That plan would unravel within the first 2 hours of implementation, and they would have revolution on their hands.

They KNOW that, so it won't happen. They'll try other things, no doubt, but if you just ignore that and keep your stack hidden, you will outlast them and keep your gold/silver. Make some popcorn and watch them self-destruct as they scream helplessly at you from the teevee..."But we all have to pull together! Those hoarders will crash the economy! Turn them in and save America!"

The only people who might buy that do not own gold, nor do any of their friends. Possession is 9/10ths of the law because when law fails, the one who holds it owns it.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 14:35 | 6602844 FireBrander
FireBrander's picture

The fault in your thinking is focusing on door-to-door confiscation.

I agree that's way down there in probability.

But, they don't have to phycisally take your gold to deprive you of its "value"...all they have to due is control it's value which is very simple....an ounce of gold is worth $10...it is illegal to buy or sell gold...it is illegal to use gold as a form of payment...and you are officially screwed; no "knock down your door" necessary.

Zimbabwe...Why didn't gold take the place of the worthless currency? Because very few owned it and they were scared to death to use it...imagine what happens when the starving/angry mobs find out you're buying stuff with physical gold...

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:28 | 6601669 BarkingCat
BarkingCat's picture

You cannot bankrupt a precious metals holder who is it leveraged and cares not about short term price variations.
You can however takeout a whole lot of paper holders.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:07 | 6601824 FireBrander
FireBrander's picture

"You cannot bankrupt a precious metals holder.."

B_O_L_O_G_N_A

Set the price at $100 and you just lost your ass...and, as a bonus, you can't sell the gold you own, nor will the government accept it as payment for taxes due...you're totally fucked.

If you can "outlive" the FED, well then, maybe...but...

Gold was "repriced" in 1933 and STAYED AT THAT PRICE until 1972....39 years!..is your bunker that well stocked?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 14:29 | 6602821 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Fucking dumbass FED troll. 

You keep your fucking fiat.

I'll keep my copper, brass, and lead.

My precious metals trump your paper armor.

Try paying property taxes with billage versus metals in a few years, and tell me how that works out for ya.  

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:39 | 6601709 HopefulCynical
HopefulCynical's picture

God. Damned. Vampire. Squid.

That is all.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 14:16 | 6602749 Tarzan
Tarzan's picture

The Blood Moon did it,

So the Squid's tentacles reach to the moon, aligns the planets too?

Blood bath to follow, Cannibals, all of 'em

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:49 | 6601755 1033eruth
1033eruth's picture

You know whats sort of funny AND weird, is that you got 4 thumbs down for merely recounting a historical event. It seems to me, is that these oddballs giving you the thumbs down must be gold owners and are giving you negatives because they are AFRAID, that is a possible scenario and by VOTING, they can stop it from happening. Because majority rules baby. That's how Obomit got elected and that's how socialism has become a reality in this country. MAJORITY RULES!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:27 | 6601911 Vlad the Inhaler
Vlad the Inhaler's picture

We don't have socialism here silly, we have crony capitalism.  What you call socialism is crumbs to keep the poor from rioting.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 14:41 | 6602869 FireBrander
FireBrander's picture

"We don't have socialism here silly.."

C_O_R_R_E_C_T

The only TRUE, textbook, Socialism in the USA is the VA Hospital System...and all those "anti-Socialism" politicians just love the VA...Rightwingnut Joni Ernst..."The (Socialist) VA Medical System PROVIDES GOOD CARE...it's the access time that is the problem...we need more funds to improve the VA's access times"...where's the "Repeal the VA" call?

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/07/2...

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 19:22 | 6604399 jcdenton
jcdenton's picture

And one would figure that they have not discounted the fact that they have to figure in Leo Wanta into this equation. Why do you think that the day that Wanta was to meet Vince Foster in Geneva, that same day he gets arrested by Swiss Surete, on trumped up charges filed by the Dept. of Revenue in Wisconsin, over a fraudulent delinquent property tax payment. Thirteen days later -- Foster is dead. Wanta is imprisoned for the next 11 years.

On inauguration day of "W's" second term. Wanta is there in person, sitting with top generals. That same year, at the World Series in Minute Maid Park, Wanta waves to "Sr." saying, look at my security detail. It's bigger than yours!

So, the moral of the story?

All good conspiracies do come to an end ..

https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp (start with the 11 minute teaser)

 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:37 | 6601198 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

 

Paging Goldman Sachs...paging Goldman Sachs

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:41 | 6601304 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

Paging Richard and Sal....you're wanted in front of the entrance to Glencore headquarters.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=1&v=ERtDaAtkvhQ

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:37 | 6601193 BandGap
BandGap's picture

That shit absolutely turns my stomach.

While the world spins out of control, mostly young men spend fucking hours wasting time and money.

What a joke. God, I hate those sites. The NFL owns one of them.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:44 | 6601213 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I deposited $38 and won over $2 million. At least that's what the TV said.

<Now I understand why young men aren't rioting in the streets. No draft (yet) and FanDuel to keep them busy and distracted when they aren't working 60 hours a week to pay off their student loans and pay the rent.>

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:51 | 6601224 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Well.....good for you.

 

If it worked once....

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:05 | 6601242 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

I got a letter in the mail that said I may have already won $10 MILLION !!

I didn't pay a dime!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:08 | 6601247 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Yeah....I'll send you mine.

 

You just doubled your chances.....you're welcome.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:35 | 6601297 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Chances? What are those? There's no such thing as risk is there?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:52 | 6601520 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

I'm way ahead of you guys. I already sent in my $5000.00 tax processing fee and am expecting my $10 million any day now!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 13:37 | 6602554 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

May take a while as the mail from Nigeria is quite slow.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:58 | 6601794 hxc
hxc's picture

 

You forgot the part about paying a third of your income to these fucking useless fags.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:44 | 6601208 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

I prefer playing FanDuel to the market. FanDuel hasn't been infested with HFT.......yet. /s

 

You know the top is in when FanDuel becomes the new daytrading.

Fantasy.....combined with Football.....combined with money.  Emphasis on Fantasy. 

Time to troll Ebay and Craigslist again.  There'll be good deals soon.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:46 | 6601326 venturen
venturen's picture

all we need is HOTCHICKSFORFREE.COM and the all time most awesome time in history will be confirmed

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:59 | 6601799 hxc
hxc's picture

Already got shares in it my nigga. Lol

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:51 | 6601337 thinkmoretalkless
thinkmoretalkless's picture

Powerball

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:06 | 6601823 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

191.4 million CASH! but not after taxes of course

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 14:20 | 6602777 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Why are you giving them free advertising? All they do is rip people off. Another ponzi.

Apparently even the seemingly semi-educated ZH'ers are still just a different colored lemming.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:15 | 6601260 junction
junction's picture

Glencore now = USA soon

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:40 | 6601974 Trips Trading
Trips Trading's picture

Not yet ;)

Short Term Target Price almost reached, 1890 based on Negative Reversal. 

http://tripstrading.com/2015/09/26/sp500-negative-reversal-1h-and-4h/



Finish wave 5. 

http://tripstrading.com/2015/09/19/sp500-weekly-chart-2-or-5/

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 13:06 | 6602390 franzpick
franzpick's picture

TT: Very much appreciate your technical contributions, but...???

Dow broaching 16K, SPX breaking 1900, RUT setting new 2 year low below 1100, along with many other new 1.5 year-plus index/sector lows, points to another major 2-3% leg down from here to new, bear market, lower lows, and then a continued decline to places like RUT 1000, for one example, down another 10%, with other targets at Dow 14,400 and SPX 1700. My screens suggest we're in serious trouble here, but then maybe I haven't heard the good news:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=rut&insttype=Index&freq=1&show=

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:32 | 6601168 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Glencore CDSs went above 650 in 2011.  What happened then and why was there no failure then?  Simply no IG downgrade due to stronger commodities market back then?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:33 | 6601292 cossack55
cossack55's picture

ISDA was more relevant.  Me thinks their days are numbered, however, they control the clock (but they do not yet control reality).

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:27 | 6601169 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Robuster recovery then some thought, eh.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:56 | 6601170 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

Articles like this is why I love ZH

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:58 | 6601231 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Yeah, and if only I knew how to buy a CDS on something...

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:01 | 6601235 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Or talk to some reptile at goldman about packaging them and selling them so you could short them.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 12:08 | 6602088 chunga
chunga's picture

This CDS crap has gotta be the among the worst of these financial innovations.  Greece was supposed to unravel due to CDS and then on non-payment, the banker men just made believe it never happened. DOH!

It seems like 10,000 unpunished scandals ago but remember fraudclosure?

One of the squares of homeowner litigation in that fiasco was that CDS paid off giant chunks of mortgages. They'd be getting foreclosed often by servicers with ZERO skin in the game (opertaing ultra vires as agent for undisclosed principal like MBS tranche xyz) and compel that in discovery. Servicers would motion for protective order and courts would grant ALL the time. Courts would declare homeowners "are not a party" to any of that so fuck off even if they discovered that themselves and presented in court.

So servicers wound up with millions of homes that were funded by MBS investors, whose non-performing loan pools were legally closed and paid by multiple default insurance. Imagine if you could insure your home against fire 20X over...the temptation would be great to burn the fucking thing down. Thats what happened banks burned it all down. And to think that bubble was fueled by REMIC tax incentives, the rules of which were entirely ignored. Banks never got busted on that either. The fraud is so insidious it's simply too big to believe.

At the end of the day, AIG writing all that CDS paper they KNEW they could never pay out got bailed out at par! The problem for AIG's Greenberg was that Goldman's Blankfein tossed one right in his fanny and stole the bailout loot!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:27 | 6601171 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Early, not wrong?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:29 | 6601175 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

hey bub, that's a $50B company you're talking about there. lolololololololol

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:32 | 6601185 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It WAS a $50B company.......soon to be a $50 company.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:24 | 6601277 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

"Leave the 'B' off for 'bullish'" 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:54 | 6601526 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

kiloBullish (tm)

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:29 | 6601176 Moe Hamhead
Moe Hamhead's picture

Coulda, woulda, shoulda !!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:23 | 6601276 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

First they dropped 60% in value. Most people would have sold them and be pissed.

But there's a second oppurtunity!!!!

SHORT THE METAL MELTERS!! ARCELOR MITTAL!!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:30 | 6601178 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

These are great assets someone is going to steal .

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:33 | 6601187 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Fukushima Fricassee,

 

 

You must mean "redistribute".

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:36 | 6601192 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

TPTB do like that word "redistribute" don't they.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:31 | 6601181 Not if_ But When
Not if_ But When's picture

Who is on the hook to pay off the credit default swaps?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:00 | 6601366 Kaervek
Kaervek's picture

The taxpayer of course

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:31 | 6601182 0cool
0cool's picture

I must have missed that CDS reco because I was drowning in your patheticly inaccurate gold pumping nonsense. 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:45 | 6601217 Wow72
Wow72's picture

"your patheticly inaccurate gold pumping nonsense"

Maybe now its not patheticly inaccurate?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:11 | 6601389 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Interesting, clicked your name and your info came up 12 weeks 1 day (welcome by the way). Clicked Ocool and got "access denied". Wondering if Yellen would choose a name like "Ocool".

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:32 | 6601454 Wow72
Wow72's picture

It would be a Yellin minion.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:37 | 6601472 Wow72
Wow72's picture

Probably a "Yellin Minion"

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:33 | 6601188 rogerrabbithole
rogerrabbithole's picture

Btfd!?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:58 | 6601232 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

You know what to do.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:38 | 6601201 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

OMGOMGOMGOMG!!! Oh, what? The Fed will miracle this shit away and pump the "market" higher. Ok. I feel much better now.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:49 | 6601220 JoeySandwiches
JoeySandwiches's picture

If the Fed could just miracle this shit away and pump the markets forever, we'd be near DOW 20,000 right now, not hitting 2013 lows.

Game can't go on for too much longer.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:12 | 6601253 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Yep. Just waiting to see who strokes out first: Glencore or Yellen.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:44 | 6601210 29.5 hours
29.5 hours's picture

.
.
.
With financial players calling for Fed rate increase, the events around Glencore scream deflation. Commodities, the base ingredient of production and profits, continue their rambling way down.

Winter is coming.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:52 | 6601519 Kayman
Kayman's picture

scream deflation  !!

Funny thing that... the Fed pumps out QE and ZIRP, the criminal bankers pump up stocks and commodities, and when the prices start coming back to earth, they cry deflation.


Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:52 | 6601215 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I missed the part about buying at 170 instead of 110. Gold monkey-hammered -14 something.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:35 | 6601296 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Long gold. Loooonnnngggg.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:33 | 6601692 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You missed much more than just that: first start with a primer on how CDS trading works. Second, read the March 2014 report.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:40 | 6601713 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

You just got bitch slapped by my man T-Durd!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:53 | 6601226 Rodders75
Rodders75's picture

Doin' God's work

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 07:57 | 6601228 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

draftkings and fandual, damn why did I not think of that? oh, I know ,for me it would be illegal gaming, for the elite reptile owners of the NFL, it's ok..always not what you know, but who you pay off.

its a big club and you and I ain't in it.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:05 | 6601241 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"its a big club and you and I ain't in it."

But maybe I could work in the back room washing dishes or something. Always wanted to serve the masters of the universe in whatever manner I could.

You know.....for the crumbs.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:12 | 6601848 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

crumbs can be good, where can I sign up

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:34 | 6601945 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

The bartender gets the drunken trophy wives. The janitor gets the passed out whores. Wear a condom.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 13:50 | 6602606 38BWD22
38BWD22's picture

 

 

Washing their dishes probably would count as "service"...

:p  !!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:03 | 6601239 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I am sure the COMEX insurance system can pay for all the contracts they are about to default on.  I guess postion limits were never needed after all.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:06 | 6601245 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Comex assured Kyle Bass that price would fix any delivery problems......Kyle responded with.......yeah, just give me the crap now.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:13 | 6601249 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

That was gold unless it's now turned to crap.  Now if I can only figure out how to turn crap into gold it will be truly worthless.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:15 | 6601405 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Cow crap + dark and warm = mushrooms = $$$ = gold you can purchase.

Viola

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:15 | 6601858 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

Make sure its purple to though, water it down in lemonade or tea = triple profits.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:44 | 6601321 cosmyccowboy
cosmyccowboy's picture

All that gold is still in new York,they just moved paper receipts from one ledger to another!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:13 | 6601250 To Hell In A Ha...
To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

The dreaded JP Morgan invention by Blyth Masters, AKA the Credit Default Swap. Under normal circumstances Glencore would have a few tricks up their sleeves, but the problem they face is they are being attacked by Vampire Sachs, who have direct access to the FED at ZIRP and if you believe some rumours, it is now NIRP. Under these circumstances my money is on Vampire Sachs and with the rest of Wall Street smelling blood in the water, Glencore face a major market capitalisation bloodbath. 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:31 | 6601291 gammab0y
gammab0y's picture

This is correct.  This is a bear raid, no different than the orchestrated takedown of Bear and Lehman. 

That's not to say that Glencore is an innocent victim,.  They clearly got over leveraged to an unhedgable fixed asset position.  But just because a guy trips and falls down the stairs,  it's still murder when you walk up to his injured body and stab him repeatedly. 

A lot of money is being made right now creating an artificial credit and liquidity crisis.   But it is very damaging to a capitalist economic model,  and moreover,  it totally undermines the Fed's efforts as everyone else realizes they need to be shoring up their own,balance sheets lest they be the next target. 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:10 | 6601386 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Next target is CME Group.

 

The move by Goldman to corner all of the commodities markets is on.

 

Controlling the commodities in a Post Collapse World yelds an extraordinary position of strength and power.

 

Those are the real assets.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:16 | 6601411 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Who run Bartertown!?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:18 | 6601262 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

CU will drop hard on this as well.  Don't cut your self trying to catch this one. 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:19 | 6601266 rockmanlinux
rockmanlinux's picture

So we all need to make plans what were going to do with our helicopter money coming...  cuz its just a matter of time.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:37 | 6601303 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

I'm gonna buy a helicopter just like Benny's!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:19 | 6601268 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The good part is GLENCORE IS A MASSIVE SUPPLIER OF GOLD AND SILVER ALSO SO SHORTAGES WILL BE HERE ONCE THE COMPANY SHUTS DOWN!!!!

ANYBODY WANT A SILVER EAGLE FOR 600 DOLLARS???!!

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:25 | 6601278 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Can you do $580 including shipping and Paypal fees?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:43 | 6601318 espirit
espirit's picture

Unfortunately, a loaf of plain white bread will be $700 USD by then.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:20 | 6601418 apocalypticbrother
apocalypticbrother's picture

The goverment supplied solient loaf will be free

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:30 | 6601288 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Their implosion has been planned by GS, they are hoping to pick up the assets at pennies on the dollar then flip.  Shortages will be short-lived, so sell the paper once GLEN goes tits up. 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:23 | 6601275 stateside
stateside's picture

Or is Glencore long gold and silver and the squid knows they will have to sell their long positions so they are hitting gold and silver hard this morning?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:25 | 6601279 FlacoGee
FlacoGee's picture

Clearly a "Conviction Buy"

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:29 | 6601284 venturen
venturen's picture

wish Marc Rich was alive and witnessing the destruction of his creation

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:31 | 6601286 venturen
venturen's picture

Depression alert aisle #9

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:35 | 6601298 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

#Sumtingwongmatters

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:30 | 6601287 samjam7
samjam7's picture

Could anybody knowledgable with the matter inform the reader about the consequences of a Glenocre bankrupcy? As we are moving closer in that direction it would be interesting to know and Tyler has been relatively mute on what ripple effects we may expect. For sure in the commodity sector but I wonder if it will be confined to that sector. 50b USD is quite a debt load to default on...

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:52 | 6601338 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

I will leave the minutea to those far more intelligent and far less lazy than myself...but let me just say the counterparty risk game is just warming up!!

If you were trading through Bear and Lehman, you know just what I mean..!! 

Financials are going to start getting whacked. 

About fucking time.

Tock tock, motherfuckers... tick tock....

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:13 | 6601395 Catullus
Catullus's picture

The bigger consequence is not the default of corporate debt of Glencore. It's the potential default of the forward commodities positions. Glencore mines stuff. They sell forward their products in the market. To the extent they can no longer deliver on those products in the future, they introduce a counterparty risk in the futures market. They account for this by posting collateral. Once their capacity for raising collateral is exhausted, the risk is transferred to their counterparties and specifically the commodities exchanges they deal in.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:37 | 6601959 PresidentCamacho
PresidentCamacho's picture

Is this an issue becaues Collateral has been rehypothicated  x infinite.

 

 

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:34 | 6601294 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

A list of the key shareholders would be good - 2013 vs 2015.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 13:09 | 6602411 To Hell In A Ha...
To Hell In A Handbasket's picture

lol. The Rich Boys sold up long ago. I personally thought Glencore was in good health, but financial products like Credit Default Swaps leave you vulnerable if those with unlimited money decide to come after you. Companies like Glencore could take on an amalgamation of minor league players like small banks, Pension and Hedge funds looking for a quick buck. BUT players like Goldmans and J.P.Morgan are Major League players.

I've been saying it for the last 20 years and I'll say it again, what we are witnessing is the logical conclusion of turning a blind eye to western plunder of the 3rd world. The IMF and World Bank was at the forefront of plundering the 3rd world, from Central and Latin America, to Africa, to the Indian Sub-continent, to South -East-Asia. IMF-World Bank policy never worked. They were designed not to work except to place a nation further into debt. I always argued once they have almost devoured the 3rd world, they would turn their attention on us(White Europeans-Americans et al).

 

The 2008 financial crash and the banks via our treasonous politicians made the tax-payer bailout the banks. Cyprus was a bail-in and depositor hair cut. Ireland was a RETROSPECTIVE law change, where the Irish government retrospectively changed the law making the previously unsecured loans, now liable and secured so the bond holders will get paid(HOW FUCKING TREASONOUS IS THAT?) Greece is now BUTT-FUCKED as we all know and now we are reaching the final end game. The banks are starting to devour Wall Street and Glencore is run by Jews. This is truly the beginning of the end, when these bastards are starting to consume each other.  

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:39 | 6601308 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

The new and improved Goldman SucksGlen will continue to serve its clients in the manner they been accustomed to, by bringing them to their knees while continuing to do Gods Work.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:40 | 6601975 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Their god is Moloch, apparently.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:42 | 6601314 SolarSystem1932
SolarSystem1932's picture

"In other words, even if commodity prices remain unchanged, GLEN equity could be doughnut."

Ahhhhh!!! Not the dreaded doughnut! We're doomed!!

Shitgummed again.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:45 | 6601323 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

I would strongly suggest Ivan Glasenberg to give a call to South Korea’s Military Mutual Aid Association. NOW!

Or else: buy a nail gun.

It's Monday and it's a long way til the weekend.

www.denk-bubbles.com/glen

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:45 | 6601325 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Any word on Noble group? The Chinese commodities dealer, not the oil company.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:08 | 6601573 thatdudeisntme
thatdudeisntme's picture

busy selecting the next peace prize candidates

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 12:18 | 6602136 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Word is Trump told them to FO.  He apparently said he has all the magazeen covers he needs.  More than a supermodel, cause that is how you compare those things....

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:53 | 6601339 Nothing Ever Happens
Nothing Ever Happens's picture

And there it is: GLENCORE DEBT INSURANCE COSTS SURGE TO RECORD HIGH; 5-YR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS RISE 154 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY'S CLOSE TO 708 BASIS POINTS

All your basis are belong to us.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 08:58 | 6601356 lester1
lester1's picture

Time to buy more gold and silver like the .1% and world central banks are doing.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:06 | 6601381 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:29 | 6601445 thatdudeisntme
thatdudeisntme's picture

buy it for a quick bounce?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:31 | 6601452 thatdudeisntme
thatdudeisntme's picture

it's not like glencore has an AAA rating to lose

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 09:37 | 6601471 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Pardon me for putting this here.

 

Marcell David Reich, friend of BCCI, CIA, Ehud Olmert,

and now a list of Marcs friends and friends of friends,

http://www.nndb.com/crime/504/000045369/

Tony Hayward moved from BP to Glencore/xstrata in 2014

 

 


Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:04 | 6601551 thatdudeisntme
thatdudeisntme's picture

doubt it's as bad as he sounds

everyone and her step brothers are hoping to pick up the assets at pennies on the dollar then flip

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:07 | 6601567 thatdudeisntme
thatdudeisntme's picture

real assets not delivery notes

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:32 | 6601687 The Indelicate ...
The Indelicate Genius's picture

Glenharbinger.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:33 | 6601693 BarkingCat
BarkingCat's picture

I am surprised that a few of the big players do not get together and take out Goldman.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:48 | 6601752 Charles Offdensen
Charles Offdensen's picture

Mean while in Sweden the affects of negative interest rates, or below zero rates as the call it, is just sunshine and rainbows. But for how long? The quote below shows some scepticism about their theory.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11895084/How-Swedens-negati...

Here's the money quote, no pun intended from the article.

"There are other - perhaps more sinister - motives to prefer non-electronic money. Unlike the money stored on spreadsheets, cash is almost completely untraceable. For those who value their privacy, or who deal in prohibited goods and services, there’s no beating it."

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:49 | 6601756 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Glencore is being sacrificed as a warning and punishment for this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/us-precious-manipulation-swiss...

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:06 | 6601817 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Well another asset class manipulation now comes out into the open.

VW and Glencore are just the wrap-arounds of two asset classes of a financial empire gone mad.

VW did what it did to maximise "shareholder value" just like all the others.

A company run by engineers became a patsy for the financial world.     Poster child of "German excellence" now burning on the Cross of financialization's Inquisitorial order, expiatory victim after having played at being the Plumbers of Diesel fame.

Those guys cheat first and then run for cover like the devil were behind them.

Shades of Watergate mega leakage coming to WS asset pump now cavitating.

Can Reaganomics Oligarchy's new slave drivers save the system a second time by "print to infinity" shenanigans ?

Hugh Hendry and Lady Lagarde think they can.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 12:24 | 6602155 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

""The question is not if individuals, or groups of individuals are collaborating to rig the game for themselves, the question is if this has any material effect," he said.

 

"I'm not convinced collusive behavior will have a meaningful effect micro-economically to the structure of gold trading around the world.""

 

Calling Bart Chizem....

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:52 | 6601765 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture

“could see almost all equity value eliminated under spot conditions, leaving nothing for shareholders”

It should be noted that during the entire existence of this financial scam, no EPA laws were broken.

Smokers always smoked outside the building.

Women and minorities were always treated more fairly than men.

We maintained restrooms for all 7 genders.

Lastly, the enormous wealth transferred to a few executives via the corporate form by this stock scam, will not be lost because we wrote the corporate mission and charter on recyclable paper.

To the shareholders, we will tweet an apology on Twitter, which you can view on your iphone.

We followed all the rules, but sometimes capitalism is a cruel master.

Notice we used the masculine and not feminine form in association with cruel.

What more could we have done?

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 10:56 | 6601783 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/05/19/after-10-billion-i-p-o-glencore-s...

 

Many at the time said this marked the top in the commodities market.  Good call.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:29 | 6601920 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

Hmm I smell a war in the financials. From article above "Investors include BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi."

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:16 | 6601868 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Allen Stanford is running his operations within prison. 

/sarc

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:29 | 6601910 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Who controls Glencore? Who controls the credit? Who controls the commodity pricing structure? who controls the markets? who controls the worlds' currencies? Who controls every aspect of world commerce? who controls the governments? who controls the people? who controls your mind? free range slaves.

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:32 | 6601932 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

see above, part of it anyhow is controlled by

Mon, 09/28/2015 - 11:43 | 6601977 Questan1913
Questan1913's picture

We want all of these fraudulent entities to collapse until the entire fraud-financial structure turns to dust...mimicing the event on 9/11; call it creative destruction.

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